3/11 NET update

[SteelBowl70]

NET was just updated and Pitt only fell to 51. Wake is still 75 but Clemson tumbled to 80 making that a Q3 loss. Surprisingly Miami dropped to 31. So Pitt’s quad splits are 4-2,4-4, 2-1, 9-1.

I expect Pitt’s projected seed to move towards the 10 line but still above the last 4 byes. A strong calling card remains being 7-3 on the road which includes 3 quad one wins. And the 3 road losses consist of 2 Q1 and a Q2 at Vandy. Pitt’s road splits are an impressive 3-2, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0.

Miami looks like the best team right now and should be 15-4 going into the Pitt finale and are unbeaten at home. UVA’s best loss opportunity is at UNC. Even finishing 2-2 should secure third place for Pitt and I imagine that the ACC 3rd place team has never missed the tourney since it expanded. A third place finish would likely mean a quarter-final game against Clemson, Duke or NC State. And a loss there could send Pitt to Dayton similar to what happened to ND last year.

 

[Blair_45]

I think they will be in the tournament and will avoid Dayton if they win these next 3 games against Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and at Notre Dame even if they lose the regular season finale at Miami and lose and happen to lose the first game in the ACC Tournament. Their record would be 22-10 and they would still probably have a net in the low 50’s. They would probably drop to a 10 or 11 seed which I personally think would be better then being an 8 or 9 seed but I don’t see them playing in Dayton at this point their resume is too strong I feel for that even if they lose at Miami and lose their first ACC Tournament game.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Wasn't worried about it falling much after a non-blowout road game vs a good NET team. Lets get up big vs GT and then run it up!

 

[str61166]

Not about to do a deep dive on their resume from last season but that’s a bit unsettling that Notre Dame had a 15-5 conference record and had to play in Dayton.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Not about to do a deep dive on their resume from last season but that’s a bit unsettling that Notre Dame had a 15-5 conference record and had to play in Dayton.

ND 2022 vs Pitt 2023
NET 53 51
Q1 2-8 4-2
Q2 2-1 4-4
Q3 11-1 2-1
Q4 6-0 9-1
Road 7-5 7-3
SOS 69 92
OOC 26 133

ND was also the last team in the field. 4 Q1/2 wins wasn't good

 

[str61166]

ND 2022 vs Pitt 2023
NET 53 51
Q1 2-8 4-2
Q2 2-1 4-4
Q3 11-1 2-1
Q4 6-0 9-1
Road 7-5 7-3
SOS 69 92
OOC 26 133

ND was also the last team in the field. 4 Q1/2 wins wasn't good

I figured Pitt’s resume would be more favorable. Let’s hope they can finish at least 3-1 down the stretch and avoid going one and done in the ACCT.

 

[pittguy81]

I'd rather have Pitt on a 10 line than an 8/9 where your reward for winning is a probable game against a #1 seed. Just make the tourney and see what happens. This season has been a really pleasant surprise, no matter what happens.

 

[UPitt '89]

I'd be 8 seed than 10 or 11.

Easier first game.... and in 2023 season, the 2s and 3s are not any worse than the 1s. The Top 12 teams are pretty interchangeable this year.

 

[PittPoker]

I'd be 8 seed than 10 or 11.

Easier first game.... and in 2023 season, the 2s and 3s are not any worse than the 1s. The Top 12 teams are pretty interchangeable this year.

You keep saying this but it's not true. We would get beat badly by Kansas and Baylor and Houston and Alabama and probably Purdue.

 

[UPitt '89]

You keep saying this but it's not true. We would get beat badly by Kansas and Baylor and Houston and Alabama and probably Purdue.

At least 2 of those 5 are going to be 2-seeds.

 

[docpanther26]

I'd rather have Pitt on a 10 line than an 8/9 where your reward for winning is a probable game against a #1 seed. Just make the tourney and see what happens. This season has been a really pleasant surprise, no matter what happens.

This! We all could not be happier if Pitt just made the tournament this year. Whatever happens we then build off of going into next year. H2P

 

[SteelBowl70]

Pitt NET improved to 50 likely based on Northwestern 20 point flogging of Iowa improving them to 39.

Miami and WVU are 31 and 32, making those home games Q2. Wake fell from 75 to 77, making that win a Q3. Clemson stayed at 81. Those 4 games seem to have the most variability. Miami likely ends up in the top 30 making that a fifth Q1 win. They play at VT Tuesday. Wake plays at NC State Weds.

Today’s quad splits are 4-2, 3-4, 3-1, 9-1.
Road splits remain a strong 3-2, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0.
Home splits 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 8-1
Neutral Q2 0-2

ACC splits 3-2, 3-0, 2-1, 4-1
Non-conference 1-0, 0-4, 1-0, 5-0
Pitt is 6-2 in ACC Q1/2 and 6-2 in Q3/4
ACC home 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1
ACC road 2-2, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0

Other wins seem stable unless FSU drops from 228 to below 240, impacting that road Q3 win. Remaining games are Q4, two Q3s and Q1 finale. First ACCT game likely to be a Q1 or Q2 assuming we get the double bye.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Palm has Pitt as a 9 today https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

 

[UPitt '89]

Palm has Pitt as a 9 today https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

That's the consensus at bracket matrix too. Average seed is about 9.2.

 

[Pittnerski]

Kentucky as a 9 seems pretty aggressive

Also must be nice to be WVU… second to last place in your league and heading to Dayton. That’s ridiculous their magic number (3) and ours are the same

 

[UPitt '89]

Kentucky as a 9 seems pretty aggressive

Also must be nice to be WVU… second to last place in your league and heading to Dayton. That’s ridiculous their magic number (3) and ours are the same

Kentucky had a good week. Knocking off Tennessee was a big boost for them.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Pitt remains 50 but WVU went up 6 to 26 by beating Ok State by 18 making our loss to them a Q1. Ok State at 16-12 and 3-7 on road dropped to 42.

Pitt now 4-3 q1 and 3-3 q2. Wake at 77 is still a Q3 win. WVU jumped Miami who is still 31 (Illinois fell to 32) so our Miami win remains a Q2.

Miami at VT tonight. From a quad record perspective, we should root for Miami but from a standings perspective we have to root against them. Maybe a one point road loss would be the best outcome

But that pales with having to beat GT in our last Q4 game of the season.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt remains 50 but WVU went up 6 to 26 by beating Ok State by 18 making our loss to them a Q1. Ok State at 16-12 and 3-7 on road dropped to 42.

Pitt now 4-3 q1 and 3-3 q2. Wake at 77 is still a Q3 win. WVU jumped Miami who is still 31 (Illinois fell to 32) so our Miami win remains a Q2.

Miami at VT tonight. From a quad record perspective, we should root for Miami but from a standings perspective we have to root against them. Maybe a one point road loss would be the best outcome

But that pales with having to beat GT in our last Q4 game of the season.

Wake at 77. Clemson at 81. Need to root for them to finish in Top 75. Massive week for Clemson. They host Syr and go to NC State

 

[Pitt2006]

Wake at 77. Clemson at 81. Need to root for them to finish in Top 75. Massive week for Clemson. They host Syr and go to NC State

If only happens, what would be better? Wake as a Q2 win or Clemson as a Q2 loss? My gut says avoid the bad losses.

 

[UPitt '89]

We want Miami to lose. The goal of winning the conference regular season title is a worthwhile goal and still out there. And I think that is more than just a cosmetic goal. The perception that comes with being #1 in the conference helps with seeding - I believe.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Pitt 9 seeds in latest projections. I agree being on the mix for first place helps perception. Maybe UVA luck will run out this week.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

We want Miami to lose. The goal of winning the conference regular season title is a worthwhile goal and still out there. And I think that is more than just a cosmetic goal. The perception that comes with being #1 in the conference helps with seeding - I believe.

VT is favored by 2.5

 

[SteelBowl70]

Pitt fell 3 spots to 53 behind Missouri and Texas Tech who both won and Florida who was idle. I figured an 8 point Q4 home would do that. Miami’s win at VT moved them back up to 27 from 31, making that a Q1 win. Pitt is now 5-3 Q1. uNC is 0-8 and has a NET of 48. Go figure.

Pitt has won 9 of the last 10 but the NET hasn’t really improved much over that time. The NET is singlehandedly keeping Pitt from being comfortably in the field and costing Pitt several seed lines. Pitt continues to have an impressive road record including 3 road quad one wins.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Pitt has won 9 of the last 10 but the NET hasn’t really improved much over that time.

Which tells you that NET is just another dumb math algorithm.

 

[Blair_45]

These NET Rankings I will continue to say is the stupidest shit ever how they are determined and changed on a day to day basis. I don’t understand how you win a game and drop 3 spots in this thing whether you win by 38 or 8 like Pitt did. A win is a win and dropping 3 spots because Pitt didn’t blow Georgia Tech out is beyond ****ing stupid.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt fell 3 spots to 53 behind Missouri and Texas Tech who both won and Florida who was idle. I figured an 8 point Q4 home would do that. Miami’s win at VT moved them back up to 27 from 31, making that a Q1 win. Pitt is now 5-3 Q1. uNC is 0-8 and has a NET of 48. Go figure.

Pitt has won 9 of the last 10 but the NET hasn’t really improved much over that time. The NET is singlehandedly keeping Pitt from being comfortably in the field and costing Pitt several seed lines. Pitt continues to have an impressive road record including 3 road quad one wins.

After losing to Duke, our NET was 65 on January 12. Since then, we have gone 9-2 and moved up to 53.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

These NET Rankings I will continue to say is the stupidest shit ever how they are determined and changed on a day to day basis. I don’t understand how you win a game and drop 3 spots in this thing whether you win by 38 or 8 like Pitt did. A win is a win and dropping 3 spots because Pitt didn’t blow Georgia Tech out is beyond ****ing stupid.

They didn't blow GT out. Simple. We all hate it but scoring margins matter and Pitt has blown very few teams out including some of the cupcakes. Although we beat them by big margins, they werent big enough margins. Needed some 40 or 50 point wins early.

 

[Blair_45]

Pitt fell 3 spots to 53 behind Missouri and Texas Tech who both won and Florida who was idle. I figured an 8 point Q4 home would do that. Miami’s win at VT moved them back up to 27 from 31, making that a Q1 win. Pitt is now 5-3 Q1. uNC is 0-8 and has a NET of 48. Go figure.

Pitt has won 9 of the last 10 but the NET hasn’t really improved much over that time. The NET is singlehandedly keeping Pitt from being comfortably in the field and costing Pitt several seed lines. Pitt continues to have an impressive road record including 3 road quad one wins.

Exactly Pitt is 9-2 in their last 11 games and the bottom line is they are winning these games. They aren’t losing these games and that’s what should matter at the end of the day. It’s absurd that Pitt dropped only 2 spots losing to Virginia Tech but dropped 3 after winning last night against Georgia Tech. It’s beyond dumb and it makes no sense.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Exactly Pitt is 9-2 in their last 11 games and the bottom line is they are winning these games. They aren’t losing these games and that’s what should matter at the end of the day. It’s absurd that Pitt dropped only 2 spots losing to Virginia Tech but dropped 3 after winning last night against Georgia Tech. It’s beyond dumb and it makes no sense.

uVA continues to win squeakers against Q4 teams and their NET barely budges. I believe they only have 2 double digit wins their last 12 games while Pitt has 5. Any system that has UNC ahead of Pitt should be dismissed out of hand.

It’s clear that the initial bias established in the first NET when UNC was 17 and Pitt 193 still impacts the current rankings.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Exactly Pitt is 9-2 in their last 11 games and the bottom line is they are winning these games. They aren’t losing these games and that’s what should matter at the end of the day. It’s absurd that Pitt dropped only 2 spots losing to Virginia Tech but dropped 3 after winning last night against Georgia Tech. It’s beyond dumb and it makes no sense.

It makes sense in that the NET is giving them what they intended. They apparently wanted a Vegas-like metric. NET doesn't care a great deal about whether you win or game or lose it. Its how you play in that game. A fairly close loss on the road to VT is about the same as a fairly close home W vs GT. Its "how you play" not whether you win or lose. Now I think its incredibly stupid to discount wins and losses but that's what it does.

 

[Blair_45]

They didn't blow GT out. Simple. We all hate it but scoring margins matter and Pitt has blown very few teams out including some of the cupcakes. Although we beat them by big margins, they werent big enough margins. Needed some 40 or 50 point wins early.

It’s ridiculous how it works. Winning at the end of the day is what should matter. The fact that you still have guys like Palm and Lunardi saying they will be on the bubble if they lose to either Syracuse or Notre Dame is absurd. There is just no case that can be made right now that in my opinion that would be good enough to say that Pitt doesn’t deserve to be in the NCCA tournament not one.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

uVA continues to win squeakers against Q4 teams and their NET barely budges. I believe they only have 2 double digit wins their last 12 games while Pitt has 5. Any system that has UNC ahead of Pitt should be dismissed out of hand.

Their defensive efficiency is elite.

 

[SteelBowl70]

Their defensive efficiency is elite.

Their offensive efficiency must then be wanting to win so many close games. Your logic is spot on but Pitt has the third best ATS at 19-8-1 while UVA is 10-14-1. Doesn’t that indicate UVA is overvalued and Pitt undervalued?

The fact that Pitt has an ATS over 70% would seem to indicate that the rating systems used to inform bettors are grossly under rating Pitt.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

These NET Rankings I will continue to say is the stupidest shit ever how they are determined and changed on a day to day basis. I don’t understand how you win a game and drop 3 spots in this thing whether you win by 38 or 8 like Pitt did. A win is a win and dropping 3 spots because Pitt didn’t blow Georgia Tech out is beyond ****ing stupid.

I can understand how that could happen on occasion. It's the whole winning 9 out of 10 and not having our NET change much that makes this laughable, in my opinion.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Vegas-like metric

Yeah, that's a pretty good way to describe this, actually. Spot on. Like, if this was used in college football, a 13-0 Cincinnati team would be lucky to crack the top 10, let alone make the playoff.

 

[SteelBowl70]

I can understand how that could happen on occasion. It's the whole winning 9 out of 10 and not having our NET change much that makes this laughable, in my opinion.

SMF is correct in that it’s 9 out of 11 since losing to Duke but the point holds.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Their offensive efficiency must then be wanting to win so many close games. Your logic is spot on but Pitt has the third best ATS at 19-8-1 while UVA is 10-14-1. Doesn’t that indicate UVA is overvalued and Pitt undervalued?

The fact that Pitt has an ATS over 70% would seem to indicate that the rating systems used to inform bettors are grossly under rating Pitt.

When I say Vegas, I dont mean spreads. Vegas and NET look at how good a team is based on metrics and not necessarily wins and losses. Pitt beating the spread by a
point or 2 often is not what I'm talking about. Basically, what I mean is if you asked Vegas to rank the teams based on who they felt were the best teams (not based on resumes), Pitt would come out close to where they are with NET. NET ranks teams, not resumes. Its my belief the NCAA should be ranking resumes. Pitt's resume is like 20th-30th but NET pulls them down

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yeah, that's a pretty good way to describe this, actually. Spot on. Like, if this was used in college football, a 13-0 Cincinnati team would be lucky to crack the top 10, let alone make the playoff.

TCU football with all their close wins, wouldn't have been in the Top 10 in NET. Yet they made the CFP because the CFP ranks resumes, not teams. NET ranks teams, not resumes

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

When I say Vegas, I dont mean spreads. Vegas and NET look at how good a team is based on metrics and not necessarily wins and losses. Pitt beating the spread by a
point or 2 often is not what I'm talking about. Basically, what I mean is if you asked Vegas to rank the teams based on who they felt were the best teams (not based on resumes), Pitt would come out close to where they are with NET. NET ranks teams, not resumes. Its my belief the NCAA should be ranking resumes. Pitt's resume is like 20th-30th but NET pulls them down

I think it does match up to spreads. Well, more specifically, who would be favored. Maybe not the point total to a t. If Pitt played UNC on a neutral court tomorrow, the points would be pretty close. UNC might even be a slight favorite. But Pitt has obviously had the better season. It's like NET just throws that out the window.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I think it does match up to spreads. Well, more specifically, who would be favored. Maybe not the point total to a t. If Pitt played UNC on a neutral court tomorrow, the points would be pretty close. UNC might even be a slight favorite. But Pitt has obviously had the better season. It's like NET just throws that out the window.

NET throws resumes out the window, yes. UNC would be a slight favorite over us on a neutral court. Would we be favored over anyone ahead of us? That's essentially what NET mimics.