This is what I have been saying. We had 4 Q1 Ws last year and 3 Q2s. We have 0 so far this year and we dont have many opportunities. We also already have a Q3 loss.
Here's the thing. I think we are NCAAT good. We have a good enough team. But our league is really hard to make it from because of the ACC 12 + 3 deal. What I mean is you arent going to beat "the 3." They are going to be your Q1s but usually (not every year) they are 1, 2, 3, 4 seeds and those are really hard teams to beat. Then there's a really big gap where you basically have the Atlantic 10. So beating those teams doesn't really do anything for you and you are going to lose some Q3s because those teams are better than your NET.
I dont see a path at 12-8. Forget Duke, we aren't beating them. We're going to need to beat 2 of the 4 road games vs Miami, Clemson, UVa, and NC State and then beat UNC at home. That gives us 3 Q1s, which has to be about the minimum. Then win some Q2s.
The path is just so narrow. Its so disappointing because I think its an NCAAT team. Its a team who would go 10-10 in the B10 and get in easily but 13-7 in the ACC might not do it