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CFP Predictions

VAPITTALUM said:
So, a two-loss PSU would get the nod over a one-loss OSU (assuming they beat Michigan)? Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you are saying.
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Yeah I do believe that might be the case. PSU's 2 losses were 4 weeks into the season and every starting LB was hurt.

Even Galloway and Herbstreit talked about how OSU could be left outside. PSU beat them, would have to have won the division and then a game against a really good Wisconsin team. They wouldn't be excluded. Really think there could be two Big Ten teams taken to the playoffs.
 
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PSUriseANDfire said:
Yeah I do believe that might be the case. PSU's 2 losses were 4 weeks into the season and every starting LB was hurt.

Even Galloway and Herbstreit talked about how OSU could be left outside. PSU beat them, would have to have won the division and then a game against a really good Wisconsin team. They wouldn't be excluded. Really think there could be two Big Ten teams taken to the playoffs.
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Just my opinion; if OSU handles business against UM, the head-to-head between UM (who dominated the game against PSU) and OSU will dictate which of the 2 schools receive the invitation. The entire body of work from OSU, who has won against the likes of Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Nebraska will be too much for PSU to overcome. PSU has one great signature victory, the rest against teams with a combined record of 41-54 (assume Rutgers and MSU lose their last two games).

Also, if you are looking at the number of players hurt, wouldn't the offensive linemen injuries (I believe the count is up to 4 now) be a concern?
 
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caleco's said:
crazy if that ref hack job comes back and screws over OK st, which would have been 11-1
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Think about the overall revenue that may lose for the school, which could be in the several-million range. Understand that refs sometimes make the wrong call, but a call on the last play of the game that impacted the final result should absolutely be overturned, even after the game has ended. Hopefully there's a rule change moving forward to allow for this flexibility.
 
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The B1G needs UW to finish 10-2. Should UW stumble v. Minnesota, that diminishes the weight of a B1G Championship win because it would v. a non-top 10 opponent.
 
PSUriseANDfire said:
Yeah I do believe that might be the case. PSU's 2 losses were 4 weeks into the season and every starting LB was hurt.

Even Galloway and Herbstreit talked about how OSU could be left outside. PSU beat them, would have to have won the division and then a game against a really good Wisconsin team. They wouldn't be excluded. Really think there could be two Big Ten teams taken to the playoffs.
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If Clemson and Washington win out, the Big Ten aint getting 2. It'll either be Ohio State or the PSU/Wisky winner.

And I keep saying that OKST is the big wildcard here. If they win out, and say Pitt wins out and are in the Top 25. OKST should be an 11-1 champ with 3 Top 25 wins. They'd be tough to leave out.
 
VAPITTALUM said:
Think about the overall revenue that may lose for the school, which could be in the several-million range. Understand that refs sometimes make the wrong call, but a call on the last play of the game that impacted the final result should absolutely be overturned, even after the game has ended. Hopefully there's a rule change moving forward to allow for this flexibility.
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This is the most fascinating thing of all. But, committee already explained that they're counting the loss. Had they not and if Okla St finished 11-1, they'd likely be in as a single loss conference champ with a road win at OU, home win in WVU.
 
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Sean Miller Fan said:
Right.

Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan are the only teams that control their own destiny.

Ohio State is a curious case and will test the whole "preference given to conference champions" criteria since they likely won't win their division.

Its Alabama, Clemson (assuming they win the next 3), and a Big Ten team.

The 4th team will either be a Big Ten "wildcard" like Ohio State, the B12 champ, or P12 champ.

I cant think of a scenario where Louisville can make it as a non-champion. The resume is just too weak. They would get jumped by 2 loss champs from the B12, P12, or B10 if it came to it.
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agree its going to be tough for louisville but here is their path. obviously they have to win out
1. clemson loses before championship game giving louisville their division. Louisville probably gets in over a b12 champ if they are the ACC champ

2. MI beats OSU and wins big 10 championship. this guarantee's b10 only gets one. They then need Washington to lose one more. that happens and pac12 doesn't get anyone. I think louisville gets in over a 2 loss b12 champ or even 1 loss wvu.

3. B12 teams beat each other up eliminating b12, PSU loses to MI ST. OSU runs the table and ends up the only b10 team. Probably need WA to lose as well.

Basically if OSU wins out and isn't the big 10 champ the big 10 is likely getting a 2nd team. Especially if that team is PSU because they beat OSU and there is no way the committee can take OSU and not psu with PSU winning conference and head to head. With wisconsin they maybe bypass them for OSU.
 
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JohnnyGossamer said:
A win over UM will be more frowned upon than a 39 point loss to UM? Please, elaborate... You're also dismissing that this only the 3rd year of the playoff. Precedents have yet to be set in stone. tOSU is an EASY in should they win out. Aside from Alabama, they'd easily have the best resume in the country. Again, wins at Oklahoma, at Wisconsin, v. Michigan and v. Nebraska and a lone miraculous defeat to a Top 10 opponent on the road.
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You do realize that margin of victory is not considered by the Committee, don't you? You also realize that the Committee looks at how teams are playing at the end of the year as a factor, right? You do realize that PSU blew out a team that just beat Michigan, right? I'm sure that'll factor in somewhere. You do realize that a win over Wisconsin, should PSU get the opportunity, would be considered a big deal right, along with being B1G champ?
 
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Do you realize you said you wold not come on the PITT board until we play next season?.......some people just can't keep their promises.

Howie'81 said:
You do realize that margin of victory is not considered by the Committee, don't you? You also realize that the Committee looks at how teams are playing at the end of the year as a factor, right? You do realize that PSU blew out a team that just beat Michigan, right? I'm sure that'll factor in somewhere. You do realize that a win over Wisconsin, should PSU get the opportunity, would be considered a big deal right, along with being B1G champ?
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Howie'81 said:
You do realize that margin of victory is not considered by the Committee, don't you? You also realize that the Committee looks at how teams are playing at the end of the year as a factor, right? You do realize that PSU blew out a team that just beat Michigan, right? I'm sure that'll factor in somewhere. You do realize that a win over Wisconsin, should PSU get the opportunity, would be considered a big deal right, along with being B1G champ?
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Not as big of a deal as an Ohio State win over Top 3 Michigan team.
 
It keeps me up at night to see how nauseatingly close PSU is to the Final Four. I think the committee puts in 2 loss B1G champ (PSU) at #4 and tOSU is left on the outside if CLEM and UW win their conferences at 12-1.
1. BAMA
2. CLEM
3. UW
4. PSU
I'm gonna go throw up...
 
melwood said:
It keeps me up at night to see how nauseatingly close PSU is to the Final Four. I think the committee puts in 2 loss B1G champ (PSU) at #4 and tOSU is left on the outside if CLEM and UW win their conferences at 12-1.
1. BAMA
2. CLEM
3. UW
4. PSU
I'm gonna go throw up...
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I said this weeks ago and people thought it was crazy. Penn State is 2 games away from the CFP (not counting the RU scrimmage).

If PSU is the B10 champ and has a win over OSU, they are in. End of story. OSU may be or may not be but PSU is in.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
I said this weeks ago and people thought it was crazy. Penn State is 2 games away from the CFP (not counting the RU scrimmage).

If PSU is the B10 champ and has a win over OSU, they are in. End of story. OSU may be or may not be but PSU is in.
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With all due respect, you have no basis that I know of to say end of story PSU is in if they are the B10 champ. Just like everyone saying OSU is in if they win out also doesn't really know. This is the case because as far as I know, I don't think it's ever been clearly stated by any of the actual CFP decision-making exactly what their criteria is and in what order of importance.

I just hope things fall the way you and others have noted above, just so we can find out what if any emphasis the decision-makers actually place on winning your conference. For me, it should be one of the greatest factors in the decision-making process. But, as is obvious from reading this thread, many have a differing opinion on the importance of winning your conference so who knows.
 
NCanton Panther said:
With all due respect, you have no basis that I know of to say end of story PSU is in if they are the B10 champ. Just like everyone saying OSU is in if they win out also doesn't really know. This is the case because as far as I know, I don't think it's ever been clearly stated by any of the actual CFP decision-making exactly what their criteria is and in what order of importance.

I just hope things fall the way you and others have noted above, just so we can find out what if any emphasis the decision-makers actually place on winning your conference. For me, it should be one of the greatest factors in the decision-making process. But, as is obvious from reading this thread, many have a differing opinion on the importance of winning your conference so who knows.
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-There is now a video on ESPN from 2 analysts saying the Penn State / Wisconsin Big Ten Champion winner would get the auto bid over Ohio State. So, take it for what it is.
 
I am actually hoping that PSU wins the conf and gets snubbed. I think that would speed up the process for a P5 + 3 playoff.
 
steel_curtain said:
-Did Penn State win the Big Ten yet? No, they did not. In 3 weeks, Ohio State will be watching from the sidelines if Penn State wins out.
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If OSU wins out, they are a lock for the CFP. If PSU wins out, with win vs Wiscy in Big 10 champ game, I still think it's unlikely they're getting in. Would have to settle for Rose Bowl, which would match them up against a winnable Pac 12 opponent, vs a serious mismatch vs Bama in Peach Bowl.
 
PineIslandLion said:
If OSU wins out, they are a lock for the CFP. If PSU wins out, with win vs Wiscy in Big 10 champ game, I still think it's unlikely they're getting in. Would have to settle for Rose Bowl, which would match them up against a winnable Pac 12 opponent, vs a serious mismatch vs Bama in Peach Bowl.
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Everything that the committee does has signified that if Penn State win these next three(assuming OSU beats Michigan) they are in. Would be a 9 game winning streak. Division and conference title. Oh, and we beat the team that would be our main competition. Actually believe that there is a strong chance that both would get in. Highly doubt that the general chaos is done yet also. Washington and Clemson could both easily lose another game in the next few weeks.
 
PSUriseANDfire said:
Everything that the committee does has signified that if Penn State win these next three(assuming OSU beats Michigan) they are in. Would be a 9 game winning streak. Division and conference title. Oh, and we beat the team that would be our main competition. Actually believe that there is a strong chance that both would get in. Highly doubt that the general chaos is done yet also. Washington and Clemson could both easily lose another game in the next few weeks.
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The problem is OSU has a much better body of work. By your measure, OSU has gone on to beat Northwestern, Top 10 Nebraska (handily), and Maryland (handily), and then would have wins against MSU and #3 UM to close out the season. That would put them on a 5 game winning streak following the PSU loss, with two of those wins coming against Top 10 teams.

Meanwhile, PSU has one signature victory against OSU since their loss to UM (really that is their only signature win, since they don't have another win over a Top-25 ranked team), with the rest of the victories coming against teams near the bottom of the conference standings.

While that would be a great run for PSU, I still don't believe that body of work will put them in over a 1-loss OSU (who likely travels better than PSU to away games).
 
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Sean Miller Fan said:
I said this weeks ago and people thought it was crazy. Penn State is 2 games away from the CFP (not counting the RU scrimmage).

If PSU is the B10 champ and has a win over OSU, they are in. End of story. OSU may be or may not be but PSU is in.
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It would be amazing to watch PSU's OL try to block Alabama's DL. They'd have to replace PSU's OL pants, they would be so rug burnt through.

PSU, quite literally, might not be able to gain a yard.
 
steel_curtain said:
-That's right. The Big Ten Champion is going to the playoff before Ohio State, Automatically, regardless of win loss record.
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Well, no, no they actually are not. There is no auto bid. Also, there is a very good chance Wisconsin/PSU winner does not get in.
 
Jpripper88 said:
Well, no, no they actually are not. There is no auto bid. Also, there is a very good chance Wisconsin/PSU winner does not get in.
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-You missed my point. Ohio State is not getting in over the Penn State / Wisconsin winner. Its not happening. They make take the 2nd big ten bid if there is one, at best. Ohio State isnt even close to being the current number 2 team in the college football playoff. Conference Champions will leap them. Unless Penn State chokes the next 2 weeks. Although Rutgers is the biggest laugher in sports right now.
 
steel_curtain said:
-You missed my point. Ohio State is not getting in over the Penn State / Wisconsin winner. Its not happening. They make take the 2nd big ten bid if there is one, at best. Ohio State isnt even close to being the current number 2 team in the college football playoff. Conference Champions will leap them. Unless Penn State chokes the next 2 weeks. Although Rutgers is the biggest laugher in sports right now.
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Steel, how can you say this when they are currently the No. 2 team in the playoff rankings? Beating the remainder of their opponents will not do anything to disrupt that ranking. The committee loves this OSU team, who won a national championship just two years ago. They have reason to love OSU based on their total body of work this year, not a one game fluke. Winning at Oklahoma, at Wisconsin, and demoralizing Nebraska holds more weight than whatever the outcome may be in the BIG CG. If Wisconsin wins, there is no way they leap frog a team they lost to at home earlier in the season.
 
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VAPITTALUM said:
Steel, how can you say this when they are currently the No. 2 team in the playoff rankings? Beating the remainder of their opponents will not do anything to disrupt that ranking. The committee loves this OSU team, who won a national championship just two years ago. They have reason to love OSU based on their total body of work this year, not a one game fluke. Winning at Oklahoma, at Wisconsin, and demoralizing Nebraska holds more weight than whatever the outcome may be in the BIG CG. If Wisconsin wins, there is no way they leap frog a team they lost to at home earlier in the season.
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-You act like the rankings dont change. The rankings changed weekly last year with teams jumping each other. Its a comedy show for ratings until the final is released. It means nothing right now.
 
steel_curtain said:
-You missed my point. Ohio State is not getting in over the Penn State / Wisconsin winner. Its not happening. They make take the 2nd big ten bid if there is one, at best. Ohio State isnt even close to being the current number 2 team in the college football playoff. Conference Champions will leap them. Unless Penn State chokes the next 2 weeks. Although Rutgers is the biggest laugher in sports right now.
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1473


http://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings
 
VAPITTALUM said:
Steel, how can you say this when they are currently the No. 2 team in the playoff rankings? Beating the remainder of their opponents will not do anything to disrupt that ranking. The committee loves this OSU team, who won a national championship just two years ago. They have reason to love OSU based on their total body of work this year, not a one game fluke. Winning at Oklahoma, at Wisconsin, and demoralizing Nebraska holds more weight than whatever the outcome may be in the BIG CG. If Wisconsin wins, there is no way they leap frog a team they lost to at home earlier in the season.
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How? Because he is an idiot and doesn't even follow college football.
 
I mean, steel, is saying OSU "isn't close to being the current number 2 team in the college football playoff" when they are LITERALLY "the current number 2 team in the college football playoff" and the AP.
 
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steel_curtain said:
-You act like the rankings dont change. The rankings changed weekly last year with teams jumping each other. Its a comedy show for ratings until the final is released. It means nothing right now.
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I'm not saying the rankings don't change, teams lose every week. But, do you really believe a PSU win over Wisconsin or vice versa would overcome an OSU win against UM which will be one of, if not the most highly anticipated games of this season? There's just no way a 2-loss BIG champion would overtake a 1-loss OSU team. Additionally, I don't see how a 2-loss BIG Champion would knock out one of Clemson, Alabama, or potentially L'Ville who would overtake the UM spot if they lose to OSU.

Obviously, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I find it interesting how some believe a 2-loss team would overtake a team currently ranked 5-6 spots higher than the, in the CFP rankings, even assuming the higher ranked team wins out.
 
That links shows todays rankings.

The Rankings last year during this same exact week as today.

1) Clemson
2) Bama
3) Ohio State
4) Notre Dame

Final going into the playoffs

1) Clemson
2) Bama
3) Michigan State
4) OU

-Take Note. 12-1 Ohio State got left out. They disappeared off the map for winning games and closing out the season 12-1 Because Conference Champions jumped them.
 
Jpripper88 said:
How? Because he is an idiot and doesn't even follow college football.
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I won't call anyone an idiot on these boards, but it certainly is intriguing to hear some of the theories folks have. Guess that's why I enjoy reading and posting on these boards so much.
 
steel_curtain said:
That links shows todays rankings.

The Rankings last year during this same exact week as today.

1) Clemson
2) Bama
3) Ohio State
4) Notre Dame

Final going into the playoffs

1) Clemson
2) Bama
3) Michigan State
4) OU

-Take Note. 12-1 Ohio State got left out. They disappeared off the map for winning games and closing out the season 12-1 Because Conference Champions jumped them.
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What in the world Steel. You are using last year's rankings to prove your point?

Of course ND got nudged out, they lost to Stanford in the final game on 11/28. Michigan State was included after they won at Ohio State, so of course the rankings changed.

Now, getting back to our discussion, you are saying that OSU would be bumped down from the #2 spot, even if they win out, by a 2-loss BIG Champ. I still don't see it.
 
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