Congrats to Michigan State

[PittPanther44]

Tried hard and lost for the 15th time this year.

We really need to figure out/dupicate their NET gaming. That’s basically a Syracuse/Wake level team with a better schedule.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Tried hard and lost for the 15th time this year.

We really need to figure out/dupicate their NET gaming. That’s basically a Syracuse/Wake level team with a better schedule.

Someone mentioned Pitt men’s soccer and for whatever reason got blasted for it a few weeks back. But it’s a great example.

Our men’s soccer played the #1 schedule in the country, had a dismal overall record, and squeaked into the tourney by the skin of their teeth. Then they exited the tourney with a loss straight away.

As much as I wanted our men’s team to make the tourney, it was obvious they weren’t good enough to string together wins against good teams. I’m not sure it’s right to reward teams for playing a tough schedule when they showed that playing a tough schedule yields more losses.

Win more games.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

 

[PittPanther44]

Someone mentioned Pitt men’s soccer and for whatever reason got blasted for it a few weeks back. But it’s a great example.

Our men’s soccer played the #1 schedule in the country, had a dismal overall record, and squeaked into the tourney by the skin of their teeth. Then they exited the tourney with a loss straight away.

As much as I wanted our men’s team to make the tourney, it was obvious they weren’t good enough to string together wins against good teams. I’m not sure it’s right to reward teams for playing a tough schedule when they showed that playing a tough schedule yields more losses.

Win more games.

It’s a fine line, no doubt. And I get the challenge of trying to compare so many teams.

The other thing I get is that this tournament is to decide a champion. So a lot of this doesn’t really hurt its ability to do that.

So it would extraordinary rare for all this to exclude someone that was in that running.

But when I’ve historically thought of bubble teams, I thought of 8 or 10 dogs for 4 bones. And if you aren’t one of them, then you at worst were only better than some small conference AQs, and maybe 3 or 4 at large teams that got it.

I truly believe…especially after 3 days of ball…this Pitt team is better than 25-30 teams in this tournament. At least.

 

[Vader_Storm]

It’s a fine line, no doubt. And I get the challenge of trying to compare so many teams.

The other thing I get is that this tournament is to decide a champion. So a lot of this doesn’t really hurt its ability to do that.

So it would extraordinary rare for all this to exclude someone that was in that running.

But when I’ve historically thought of bubble teams, I thought of 8 or 10 dogs for 4 bones. And if you aren’t one of them, then you at worst were only better than some small conference AQs, and maybe 3 or 4 at large teams that got it.

I truly believe…especially after 3 days of ball…this Pitt team is better than 25-30 teams in this tournament. At least.

Here are the last 10 games of the season and the efficiency metrics. Look at all those teams going into the sweet 16 and look what they have done the last 10 games of the season. Like a broken record, the last 10 games are the most important thing, not the stupid non conference schedule. Pitt finished 16th in the country in efficiency the last 10 games of the season. We were not only a tournament team, we are a team that would easily would have competed for a Sweet 16 and perhaps an Elite 8 with the right matchups. It is what it is, but we were right there at the end of the season.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[PittPanther44]

Here are the last 10 games of the season and the efficiency metrics. Look at all those teams going into the sweet 16 and look what they have done the last 10 games of the season. Like a broken record, the last 10 games are the most important thing, not the stupid non conference schedule. Pitt finished 16th in the country in efficiency the last 10 games of the season. We were not only a tournament team, we are a team that would easily would have competed for a Sweet 16 and perhaps an Elite 8 with the right matchups. It is what it is, but we were right there at the end of the season.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

This is a little skewed because it includes what they have done in the tournament, which factored in the last 10. So teams will be shifting up and down.

I wish I captured the snapshot of this before the tournament started.

I think your point holds - just a caveat.

 

[Vader_Storm]

This is a little skewed because it includes what they have done in the tournament, which factored in the last 10. So teams will be shifting up and down.

I wish I captured the snapshot of this before the tournament started.

I think your point holds - just a caveat.

Understandable. I couldnt go back and reedit it. But there is not going to be an enormous shift from 1 game or so.

 

[PittPanther44]

Understandable. I couldnt go back and reedit it. But there is not going to be an enormous shift from 1 game or so.

Well most importantly, Pitt isn’t changing

 

[PittPharmacy1989]

Tried hard and lost for the 15th time this year.

We really need to figure out/dupicate their NET gaming. That’s basically a Syracuse/Wake level team with a better schedule.

Too much credit given to losing to good teams. Not sure how any loss is better than any win? Maybe if margin of loss is small, but in the end losing is still losing.

 

[PittPharmacy1989]

What I don’t get is let’s say we scheduled UCONN instead of MO. In the end our record would be the same. Our team would have been the same. But magically we would have been a tournament team. 🤷🏻 Way too much emphasis on non conference schedule. It should play a role but seems to supersede conference schedule/or makes conference schedule look tough ie Big 12 beating up on schedules in the 200’s but somehow that means their conference schedule is a gauntlet of hard games.

 

[PittPanther44]

Too much credit given to losing to good teams. Not sure how any loss is better than any win? Maybe if margin of loss is small, but in the end losing is still losing.

I can understand that in aggregate, going (say) 7-3 against 10 top 25 teams is a lot more impressive than 10-0 against below average teams. But if that slips to like 3-7, it shouldn’t be held in higher esteem because you just aren’t winning at a high enough rate to glean anything

 

[PittPanther44]

What I don’t get is let’s say we scheduled UCONN instead of MO. In the end our record would be the same. Our team would have been the same. But magically we would have been a tournament team. 🤷🏻 Way too much emphasis on non conference schedule. It should play a role but seems to supersede conference schedule/or makes conference schedule look tough ie Big 12 beating up on schedules in the 200’s but somehow that means their conference schedule is a gauntlet of hard games.

I think that’s part of the scheduling magic (or luck because you cant guarantee a team will be good).

So basically if your “off night” comes against a really good team, it won’t hurt you that much. If your great night comes against a great team and you beat them, it helps you A LOT more. Beating a scrub by 30 doesn’t (although in theory it helps your efficiency, which helps your NET).

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

How selection should be done, IMHO:

(1) Use the final overall NET rankings (or some combo of computer rankings).

(2) Subtract from 68 the number of autobids not ranked within the top 68 to determine how many at large bids are available.

(3) Place all autobids that are within the top 68 in their ranked positions

(3) Fill all remaining open slots with at large teams in their computer rank order.

(4) At that point you have your field of 68 and the Selection Committee's role is to do the seeding.

This way every team knows why they got in or left out without committee "sausage making" using data subsets within the NET that they can arbitrarily use to justify almost anything.

Then, Selection Sunday will be where you find out who you play first, where you are seeded and in what region. That should be suspense enough.