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Depressing to hear Chris Peak's thoughts for the 2018 season..........

Not sure someone's prediction is a red flag. Well have to see what the actual record is next season and how the team performs.

You don't think a coach in his fourth year should have a better record than he did in either of his first two seasons?
 
Albany W
PSU W (they have a ton of seniors)
ND L
UCF W (seniors and coach leave)
Duke W
Syr W
UNC L
Miami L

toss-up
VT
@ UVa
@ Wake
GT

I say 8-4
I mean, this is laugh out loud funny. You are predicting "W" for Pitt (4-8 this year with absolutely 0 impact players coming in as recruits) against 9-2 PSU and 11-0 UCF teams and not even putting them as "toss-ups"?

PSU returns their starting QB and 4 of 5 on the OL, plus 2 of 3 WRs. They lose two great players in Barkley and Gesicki, but that is still better than us on O if O'Neil leaves. Their defense loses a lot, but they have a lot more talent on both sides of the ball and they will still return both DEs, and 2 of 3 LBs. We return most of our defense, but of course we lose our best two players and that defense has been very bad for two years. To expect a "W" is ludicrous.

BTW, UCF should return 16 starters next year. They certainly may have a new HC, but they return their starting QB, RB, TE, and all WRs, plus 3 of 5 on the OL. They return their leading tackler and their entire DB group. They also return their starting P and K. So, they likely have more returning starters than we do.

Yea, Miles Sanders doesn't scare me. Barkley couldn’t even run behind that line.

Gesicki is a massive loss.

I dont think McSorely beats us passing.

We aren't losing to them next year. Heck, we won every statistical category against them this year except the score.

UCF should be a toss-up, you're right
 
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Chris was interviewed on the "The Fan" after yesterday's game. Not that there there is much to disagree with, particularly given the schedule, but I believe he projected 6-6 for next season.

Does Narduzzi need to think about going the Junior college route to add some needed skill and line backing positions?
10 wins next year. Watch
 
They're a better program now, YES THEY ARE.
Why are we playing at UCF? We had a home-and-home scheduled with them and played at UCF in 2006 then UCF cancelled the series. Why are we traveling again? Are we going to do big time recruiting in Florida?
 
Yea, Miles Sanders doesn't scare me. Barkley couldn’t even run behind that line.

Gesicki is a massive loss.

I dont think McSorely beats us passing.

We aren't losing to them next year. Heck, we won every statistical category against them this year except the score.

UCF should be a toss-up, you're right
Ok, and so we can't throw. We can't stop the run. We can't stop the pass. We can run, (our starting RB has averaged 3.65ypc outside of one huge game against Duke) sometimes. Our OL is likely to lose 3 starters. They are likely to be better at every position, save maybe RB and possibly DB, simply because they lose all their starters and we only lose our two best players.

We won statistical categories (yards and TOP) because we gave up turnovers, which gave them short fields and quick drives. We only outgained them by 30 yards, despite running almost twice as many plays.
 
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Chris was interviewed on the "The Fan" after yesterday's game. Not that there there is much to disagree with, particularly given the schedule, but I believe he projected 6-6 for next season.

Does Narduzzi need to think about going the Junior college route to add some needed skill and line backing positions?
That's what I projected? I don't remember saying that, but I can't be held accountable for my recall.
 
Every single game next year is a toss-up, save for Albany, based on personnel and potential coaching changes heading into next year at PITT and for every opponent PITT will face. Will UCF and PSU retain their entire coaching staffs? How will PSU look without their all-world RB, TE, and most of their defense? How will the PITT underclassmen who are starting to see significant playing time look heading into next season? What impact will some of the RS FR make on both sides of the ball next year? Will Pickett continue to develop and become a threat in the passing game next year compared with the anemic passing game we've seen most of this season?

There are far too many questions at this point. With that said, the schedule will be loaded once again with likely 3 ranked OOC games against ND, UCF, and PSU. In conference, they'll likely face a ranked Miami and VT at the very least.
 
6-6 is about right. If you're doing honest projections:

Albany W
Penn State L
UCF L
ND L
Miami L
VT L
UVA toss up
Duke toss up
UNC toss up
Syracuse toss up
GT toss up
Wake toss up

That's 5 losses, 1 win, and 6 games that are toss ups. Even if you want to say a few of the games I have labeled as losses should be toss ups, that's 3 losses, 1 win, 8 toss ups. Even if you win half of the 8 toss ups, that only gets you to 5 wins.
AS long as the OL gets straightened out, I think PSU, ND and VT are completely winnable. PSU will lose Barkley, Hamilton and Geisicki on O - that's a HUGE chunk of production to lose. Their D loses both DTs, 2LBs and their ENTIRE starting secondary. ND is the same way -- the lost 4 of 5 starters on OL and their TE. On defense they lose 6 starters and 2 backups. VaTech loses 12 Srs on their two-deep. That's alot of production lost. As we saw this year, that is alot to overcome. You can wipe your arse with "predictions". This team DOES have some good young talent, ya know.
 
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How many pitt players would start next year for either psu or nd? Outside of Paris Ford and bookster on psus poor oline, i can’t think of 1. O’Neil and Whitehead will be gone
 
AS long as the OL gets straightened out, I think PSU, ND and VT are completely winnable. PSU will lose Barkley, Hamilton and Geisicki on O - that's a HUGE chunk of production to lose. Their D loses both DTs, 2LBs and their ENTIRE starting secondary. ND is the same way -- the lost 4 of 5 starters on OL and their TE. On defense they lose 6 starters and 2 backups. VaTech loses 12 Srs on their two-deep. That's alot of production lost. As we saw this year, that is alot to overcome. You can wipe your arse with "predictions". This team DOES have some good young talent, ya know.

That's fine. My post is not meant to be a "prediction." It's a "if you were betting money, this is how you would project it going into next season."
And people who keep saying, "predictions" can be wrong, are saying absolutely nothing. Of course they can, nobody is pretending like they are infallible. But it's like talking to the person who thinks every 5* bust proves there's no merit in recruiting projections.
Most teams finish at about what the projections say they will finish, give or take a game.
And of course we have some young talent. The point is so does every team.
 
Yea, Miles Sanders doesn't scare me. Barkley couldn’t even run behind that line.

Gesicki is a massive loss.

I dont think McSorely beats us passing.

We aren't losing to them next year. Heck, we won every statistical category against them this year except the score.

UCF should be a toss-up, you're right

They are also adding a 5* RB recruit. Those tend to make an impact.
 
Please stop with recruiting. It was not recruiting it was bad coaching period. Many teams (Boise st. Comes to mind) prove that you don' need all 4 & 5 stat recruits to win.
3 games we lost was against the same level of talent (Georgia tech,Syracuse, Carolina) and possibly nc State.
Here are examples of how coaching lost the season (not recruiting).
- narduzzi's decision to go with Browne
- running back by committee instead of using call from the start.
-conservative play calling everygame; Pitt played not to lose instead of playing to win especially when they had a lead
-why would you call 3 dives on 4 tries on 4th and goal when you only gained 50 yards All day against one of the best run defenses in the country.
- not turning turnovers into points. To many times (including against vt) we wasted opportunities gained by the defense (see point 3)
- there are many other points that I can recall renown. But think about it and you will see.
So someone please explain to me what those examples have to do with talent or recruiting.
However I do agree that we need to go all out and get a freshman (not grad transfer) 4 or 5 star qb. Time and effort was wasted on Raines and Asamoah and we got neither. Put that effort into getting a top tier qb.
 
Oh one more. The coaching decision to play musical chairs with the o line (a stength goingbinto the season ).
I never understod moving an all conference center to guard to play a walk on.
Is that a talent issue or a (bad) coaching decision.
Oh and fyi I like narduzzi.just needs to step up his (coaching) game.
 
Please stop with recruiting. It was not recruiting it was bad coaching period. Many teams (Boise st. Comes to mind) prove that you don' need all 4 & 5 stat recruits to win.
...
So someone please explain to me what those examples have to do with talent or recruiting.

1. lol @ Boise proving that. Yeah, if you play Mountain West teams on a weekly basis, you can probably win with a Mountain West talent level. What did Boise State do against Washington State and UVA? (two teams that outrecruit them)

2. What talent has to do with those examples is the margin for error is so thin when you go into every game even at the same talent level or below the teams you are playing. So bad coaching sticks out, because you needed good coaching that much more.
 
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Please stop with recruiting. It was not recruiting it was bad coaching period. Many teams (Boise st. Comes to mind) prove that you don' need all 4 & 5 stat recruits to win.
3 games we lost was against the same level of talent (Georgia tech,Syracuse, Carolina) and possibly nc State.
Here are examples of how coaching lost the season (not recruiting).
- narduzzi's decision to go with Browne

You’re not suggesting it would’ve been better had he started DiNucci all season are you?

With all due respect he is horrible and should never play again unless in mop up duty or in case of injury.

Browne was a huge disappointment but at least he is better than DiNucci.
 
That's fine. My post is not meant to be a "prediction." It's a "if you were betting money, this is how you would project it going into next season."
And people who keep saying, "predictions" can be wrong, are saying absolutely nothing. Of course they can, nobody is pretending like they are infallible. But it's like talking to the person who thinks every 5* bust proves there's no merit in recruiting projections.
Most teams finish at about what the projections say they will finish, give or take a game.
And of course we have some young talent. The point is so does every team.
__________
Right... okay. SO you can't have it both ways, 884. So an "honest projection" is "what might happen if you bet money on a game," and a prediction is "absolutely nothing". Either way, I still am failing to see how either a "prediction" OR an "honest projection" have ANY substance for someone to formulate the number of wins a team might have WITHOUT actually playing a game. I think some people spew so much bullsh*t they start to believe it after awhile. Regardless, we do have young talent. The difference between our young talent and the young talent at PSU, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech is that those teams are losing alot of Senior players who played a bulk of their minutes, while their young talent sat on the bench not getting reps. Pitt's young talent will be seasoned since they played a bulk of the minutes this year. It will be much like our situation this year --- we lost quite a few VERY important Seniors and other players who were going to be counted on for major minutes to suspensions, etc. (Taleni, Wirginis, Blair, etc)
 
AS long as the OL gets straightened out, I think PSU, ND and VT are completely winnable. PSU will lose Barkley, Hamilton and Geisicki on O - that's a HUGE chunk of production to lose. Their D loses both DTs, 2LBs and their ENTIRE starting secondary. ND is the same way -- the lost 4 of 5 starters on OL and their TE. On defense they lose 6 starters and 2 backups. VaTech loses 12 Srs on their two-deep. That's alot of production lost. As we saw this year, that is alot to overcome. You can wipe your arse with "predictions". This team DOES have some good young talent, ya know.

Penn State does get John Reid back from injury who was our best defensive player in 2016. He missed the entire 2017 season. .Also the secondary returns Amani Oruwariye who led the team in interceptions and pass breakups this year. Also returning from injury are starting DE’s Torrance Brown and Ryan Buckholtz. Brown missed almost the whole season and Buckholtz missed the second half of the season.

Miles Sanders is averaging 7.4 yards per carry this year vs. Barkley’s 5.8. Sanders quick first step may actually be a better fit than Barkley in that offense.

The offense will be loaded. My biggest question mark is who is going to play middle linebacker? They redshirted a four star middle linebacker. It could be Micah Parsons if they land him? He’s mainly listed as a DE but supposedly could play LB in college. Could be Manny Bowen if he stays out of the doghouse.
 
Please stop with recruiting. It was not recruiting it was bad coaching period. Many teams (Boise st. Comes to mind) prove that you don' need all 4 & 5 stat recruits to win.
3 games we lost was against the same level of talent (Georgia tech,Syracuse, Carolina) and possibly nc State.
Here are examples of how coaching lost the season (not recruiting).
- narduzzi's decision to go with Browne
- running back by committee instead of using call from the start.
-conservative play calling everygame; Pitt played not to lose instead of playing to win especially when they had a lead
-why would you call 3 dives on 4 tries on 4th and goal when you only gained 50 yards All day against one of the best run defenses in the country.
- not turning turnovers into points. To many times (including against vt) we wasted opportunities gained by the defense (see point 3)
- there are many other points that I can recall renown. But think about it and you will see.
So someone please explain to me what those examples have to do with talent or recruiting.
However I do agree that we need to go all out and get a freshman (not grad transfer) 4 or 5 star qb. Time and effort was wasted on Raines and Asamoah and we got neither. Put that effort into getting a top tier qb.
Pitt should go out and get any 4 or 5 star at any postion they can . The problem is they can’t .
 
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Right... okay. SO you can't have it both ways, 884. So an "honest projection" is "what might happen if you bet money on a game," and a prediction is "absolutely nothing". Either way, I still am failing to see how either a "prediction" OR an "honest projection" have ANY substance for someone to formulate the number of wins a team might have WITHOUT actually playing a game. I think some people spew so much bullsh*t they start to believe it after awhile. Regardless, we do have young talent. The difference between our young talent and the young talent at PSU, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech is that those teams are losing alot of Senior players who played a bulk of their minutes, while their young talent sat on the bench not getting reps. Pitt's young talent will be seasoned since they played a bulk of the minutes this year. It will be much like our situation this year --- we lost quite a few VERY important Seniors and other players who were going to be counted on for major minutes to suspensions, etc. (Taleni, Wirginis, Blair, etc)
There is also a difference in that their young talent was considered to be more talented. Plus, many of the folks we are pointing to actually have not played. On offense practically 0 young players have played significantly. Even Pickett has gotten very little playing time. On defense, none of the young LBs have played and many young DL and DB are still behind JRs and SRs.
 
__________
Right... okay. SO you can't have it both ways, 884. So an "honest projection" is "what might happen if you bet money on a game," and a prediction is "absolutely nothing". Either way, I still am failing to see how either a "prediction" OR an "honest projection" have ANY substance for someone to formulate the number of wins a team might have WITHOUT actually playing a game. I think some people spew so much bullsh*t they start to believe it after awhile. Regardless, we do have young talent. The difference between our young talent and the young talent at PSU, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech is that those teams are losing alot of Senior players who played a bulk of their minutes, while their young talent sat on the bench not getting reps. Pitt's young talent will be seasoned since they played a bulk of the minutes this year. It will be much like our situation this year --- we lost quite a few VERY important Seniors and other players who were going to be counted on for major minutes to suspensions, etc. (Taleni, Wirginis, Blair, etc)

Huh? You found projections to be too complicated for you until games are played?
 
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