Gueye to Pitt

[Fsgolfdr]

You're just keeping your expectations very low but hope you're pleasantly surprised if they play well and there's nothing wrong with that. I know I choose to be a little more optimistic because I'm a half-full type of guy instead of a half empty type guy.

I tend to try to be optimistic, but the best way to approach Pitt bb right now IMO is just having a wait and see attitude .

Pitt bb has been dysfunctional the last two seasons with Trey , X and Toney being unhappy and not being the best of teammates . Thinking this didn’t impact the results is a mistake .


Hopefully this group buys in and plays as a team making the sum of the parts greater than the individual pieces .

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

I think you have to look at strictly as a defensive piece.
The coaches will have to change his effeciency.
But Hugley and G. Should be better than anything we've had there the last couple years.
He's done it defensively against good teams.

All he needs to do is defend and rebound and it's a big upgrade. Score a few points and it's even better.

I don't think it's crazy to get something like 8 and 6 from big John and 5 and 4 from Gueye.

 

[gary2]

At this point I don’t think we know anywhere near enough to say the overall roster is about the same as last year. Going into last year, the team may not have had a great ACC track record but they had a good bit of ACC experience, relatively decent experience with the core group of 3.

This year is a complete unknown, all the transfers in with good experience but at a much lower level (aside from Burton). Depth to work with going into this year but really a complete unknown.

I agree with your assessment. This team has less ACC level recognized talent. My hope that a team without internal strife and selfishness can out perform last years “talent”.

If BB is talking about anything other than “expectations”, I disagree with his assessment that followed yours And that you liked.

An X that lost as many games as he won and a never played Femi are not as good as an experienced Burton and a Femi with significant playing time.

A Horton and Nike who never played at Pitt are not as good as A Horton and “finally used” Nike who have played at Pitt.

Last years forwards are significantly better, but you can’t totally ignore the Toney hissy fit at Champs press or Toney abandoning what the team needed from him to play on the perimeter and Jack up threes. The new forwards will play to their role.

Hugley was gone for most of the season. That left AKC and Brown. I did like AKC. I still think that Hugley and Gueye are better than AKC and Brown.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Going into last year, we had a 2 year starter at PG who was averaging around 14 a game for his career. We also had Femi already on the roster. So PG is not better.

We had Nike and Horton last year and going into last year and the expectations were both were through the roof. Burton pushes the 2 over slightly even if neither of the other 2 lived up to expectations.

Forwards - Toney and Champ. We had Jeffress and Collier on the bench. Not sure how anyone could say we’re in the same stratosphere at the 3/4 offensively or defensively even with the additions. Those guys aren’t nearly as good as Toney and Champ.

Center - between AKC, Hugley and Brown we had 3 guys playing center who had different skills. Let’s not play revisionist history, most loved AKC before he announced his transfer. Even so, Gueye makes our centers slightly better.

There is absolutely no way anyone could expect this roster to be as good as last year’s preseason based on what I posted above.

I was as big an X fan as anyone, but simply pointing to 14ppg isn't fair. He was a train wreck in far too many games that bad X basically cancelled out good X. You also discount we had a Femi with Zero experience vs. a Femi now with a good bit of play under his belt.

I think when you look at the combination of Femi/Burton/Horton/Nike of this year, it's not that far away from X/Femi/Horton/Nike of last year.

The 3&4 is the biggest difference, and not for the good. Long way to go to make up for Toney and Champ.

We're better at C.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

I was as big an X fan as anyone, but simply pointing to 14ppg isn't fair. He was a train wreck in far too many games that bad X basically cancelled out good X. You also discount we had a Femi with Zero experience vs. a Femi now with a good bit of play under his belt.

I think when you look at the combination of Femi/Burton/Horton/Nike of this year, it's not that far away from X/Femi/Horton/Nike of last year.

The 3&4 is the biggest difference, and not for the good. Long way to go to make up for Toney and Champ.

We're better at C.

Our head coach thought he was so much better than Femi that he played him 29 minutes a game and the number is only that low because of foul trouble.

X is a terrific player who was never reigned in. The drop off from him to Femi is severe, at least based on what we know.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Our head coach thought he was so much better than Femi that he played him 29 minutes a game and the number is only that low because of foul trouble.

X is a terrific player who was never reigned in. The drop off from him to Femi is severe, at least based on what we know.

And in the 4 games after X quit, Femi averaged 15ppg while starting.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

And in the 4 games after X quit, Femi averaged 15ppg while starting.

Yes. He had one really good game that was the outlier there with 28 points, 4 TO’s and 3 assists in a loss. I don’t expect him to shoot 11/16 like he did that game every game.

He looks to project as a less talented X.

 

[DT_PITT]

You're just keeping your expectations very low but hope you're pleasantly surprised if they play well and there's nothing wrong with that. I know I choose to be a little more optimistic because I'm a half-full type of guy instead of a half empty type guy.

Fair enough, but I'm not really a "half empty" guy at all.

I also don't think my expectations are "very low" per se. I think my expectations match the level of experience and ability we will bring to the court next year. I hope we will achieve above this, and I can see why that's possible.

But I think the likelihood is greater that we have not improved our level of talent from last year, and last year we finished in 12th place. Allow me to go further by saying we finished in 12th place with a first team All-ACC player who contended for player of the year. And now that guy is gone.

If Justin would have returned, my expectation would have been closer to 9-10th place.

Keep in my that almost all people outside of Pitt fans will pick us to finish between 12-14th in the ACC preseason.

But I do like the thought expressed by @NCanton Panther in this thread. This season will present HCJC with the opportunity to show how good of a coach he is.

 

[DT_PITT]

Yes. He had one really good game that was the outlier there with 28 points, 4 TO’s and 3 assists in a loss. I don’t expect him to shoot 11/16 like he did that game every game.

He looks to project as a less talented X.

This is a spot where we might disagree somewhat. I think Femi is much closer to X than you might. In fact, I think he can be better.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

This is a spot where we might disagree somewhat. I think Femi is much closer to X than you might. In fact, I think he can be better.

I’m not in agreement with it at all. X will be one of the best PG’s in the country this year with the talent they’ve surrounded him with.

 

[Drew1208]

This is a spot where we might disagree somewhat. I think Femi is much closer to X than you might. In fact, I think he can be better.

Yeah I'm the most bullish on this board about Femi. Not sure how good he'll be this season. Largely depends on foul shooting, turnovers, and consistency. But i actually think he's going to be an NBA drafted player eventually.
I know I'm crazy and high half of the time.
I just think he'll bully almost every defensive player he comes across.

 

[Drew1208]

I’m not in agreement with it at all. X will be one of the best PG’s in the country this year with the talent they’ve surrounded him with.

Besides his stupid shot......x physically has all the tools.... he just has to prove it mentally and as a PG, most importantly for him is intangibles.

 

[DT_PITT]

I’m not in agreement with it at all. X will be one of the best PG’s in the country this year with the talent they’ve surrounded him with.

Fair point. It's one of those situations where we will certainly see.

Keep in mind though, that my take isn't to attempt to downgrade X as much as I'm offering that I think Femi can be really, really good.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

Fair point. It's one of those situations where we will certainly see.

Keep in mind though, that my take isn't to attempt to downgrade X as much as I'm offering that I think Femi can be really, really good.

Yeah I get it. I just don’t see as much out of Femi to be that good, imo. We will see what he can do when he’s the focal point of a scouting report instead of 8th or 9th on the list!

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Yes. He had one really good game that was the outlier there with 28 points, 4 TO’s and 3 assists in a loss. I don’t expect him to shoot 11/16 like he did that game every game.

He looks to project as a less talented X.

You can parse X's individual games too. We'll find out where he compares over the next 2 years. Xavier never improved, hopefully Femi does.

 

[joeydavid]

Going into last year, we had a 2 year starter at PG who was averaging around 14 a game for his career. We also had Femi already on the roster. So PG is not better.

We had Nike and Horton last year and going into last year and the expectations were both were through the roof. Burton pushes the 2 over slightly even if neither of the other 2 lived up to expectations.

Forwards - Toney and Champ. We had Jeffress and Collier on the bench. Not sure how anyone could say we’re in the same stratosphere at the 3/4 offensively or defensively even with the additions. Those guys aren’t nearly as good as Toney and Champ.

Center - between AKC, Hugley and Brown we had 3 guys playing center who had different skills. Let’s not play revisionist history, most loved AKC before he announced his transfer. Even so, Gueye makes our centers slightly better.

There is absolutely no way anyone could expect this roster to be as good as last year’s preseason based on what I posted above.

Our head coach thought he was so much better than Femi that he played him 29 minutes a game and the number is only that low because of foul trouble.

X is a terrific player who was never reigned in. The drop off from him to Femi is severe, at least based on what we know.

You seem to be ignoring a few obvious details.

Fr Champagnie wasn't the same player as Soph Champagnie. Just like Soph Toney wasn't the same player as JR Toney. You can apply the same logic to players like Femi and Jeffress in the same year or next because they were recovering from injuries but there will be growth like the other players.

Nike's late waiver and Horton's year off rust likely means we will see more of the year end versions of those players verses the early on versions.

FR Hugley wasn't available after Jan 15 after his issues. Soph Hugley hopefully will take advantage of his opportunity.

You also can't discount the abnormal scheduling due to covid- it's likely we will see considerably more improvement from the returning players (including Collier).

I have said this many times, I appreciate X, Toney and Trey because they made Pitt basketball interesting again. IMO, X's growth stopped the moment he read that he might be an NBA pick after his freshman season. Given the choice, a healthy and in control Soph Femi or out of control Sr X - Femi with his current flaws wins you more games.

 

[joeydavid]

Besides his stupid shot......x physically has all the tools.... he just has to prove it mentally and as a PG, most importantly for him is intangibles.

X was an undersized 3 trying to play the 1.

 

[thebadby2]

IMHO, one could argue that the overall roster right now (with a spot still open--or is it two?) looks to be at about the same strength as last year's roster. The big unknown is whether the rest of the ACC is stronger, weaker or about the same as last year. Whichever is the case will likley determine how many ACC wins Pitt can achieve.

Hopefully, with no return of COVID, a full schedule--both OOC and ACC--will get played. Since there hasn't been an overall winning season since the 2015-16 season and just 6 ACC wins each of the past two seasons---finishing over 0.500 overall with at least 7 ACC wins would represent progress. So, something like 9-2 OOC + 7-13 ACC + 1-1 ACCT = 17-16 would at least show a little progress. Hopefully, at least that much positive change will occur. More than that would be gravy, IMHO.

How can you say the roster is about the same strength when it lost its one and only legit star, who was responsible for a big chunk of its overall production?

We lost the top 3 scorers on the team, all of whom are proven ACC level starters and are significantly more talented than the players who are replacing them.

I know some posters on this board don't seem to grasp this concept, but you don't actually get an even up replacement for a 19 ppg, 12 rpg player with 3 guys who get 6-7 and 4-5 each per game. That's not the way that works. Replacing a bona fide high level scorer/rebounder with 3 players who are nowhere near his talent level may look OK on paper but it is nowhere near an even swap. Talent matters.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

How can you say the roster is about the same strength when it lost its one and only legit star, who was responsible for a big chunk of its overall production?

We lost the top 3 scorers on the team, all of whom are proven ACC level starters and are significantly more talented than the players who are replacing them.

I know some posters on this board don't seem to grasp this concept, but you don't actually get an even up replacement for a 19 ppg, 12 rpg player with 3 guys who get 6-7 and 4-5 each per game. That's not the way that works. Replacing a bona fide high level scorer/rebounder with 3 players who are nowhere near his talent level may look OK on paper but it is nowhere near an even swap. Talent matters.

Yes, but we were also getting 5/3 from AKC and Hugley and 2/2 from Brown. If you can get increased production in the neighborhood of 9/7 from Hugley, you only need to get 15/8 from JC's replacement (or some of that spread across elsewhere on the roster) to break even. And 9/7 from Hugley means a lot more attention is being given to him and our guards should have a little more breathing room. JC's numbers went way down (15/11) late in the season because teams could focus on his ability to drive and ignore TB and AKC.

A legitimate threat in the paint goes a long way to making up for JC's lost production.

 

[thebadby2]

I’m not in agreement with it at all. X will be one of the best PG’s in the country this year with the talent they’ve surrounded him with.

X will not be handed the primary lead guard role when he arrives at IU. Phinisee has been the starter for a couple years now and is considered one of the better defensive point guards in the B10. 5 star PG Lander was a reclassified 17 year old freshman last year and should take a decent step forward this year. They have a 5 star shooting guard coming in this year as well. Woodson wants to run a 4-out offense like Nova's which means everyone on the floor but TJD will be called on to make 3 point shots. Not exactly X's strong suit. X will get his minutes and shots as well, but I don't see him playing 30 minutes a game and equaling or bettering his Pitt production.

 

[JS School]

I think this year's team will be better the last month of this season than last year's team was the last month of last season.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

Besides his stupid shot......x physically has all the tools.... he just has to prove it mentally and as a PG, most importantly for him is intangibles.

Simply having the physical tools without the right mentality gets you nowhere at the next level .

 

[Drew1208]

Simply having the physical tools without the right mentality gets you nowhere at the next level .

Agreed.

 

[thebadby2]

Simply having the physical tools without the right mentality gets you nowhere at the next level .

He can’t shoot, which doesn’t work for guards at the next level the way the NBA game is played today.

 

[Chescat]

X was an undersized 3 trying to play the 1.

That statement right or wrong,
definitely wins the originality
post of the night.

 

[DT_PITT]

That statement right or wrong,
definitely wins the originality
post of the night.

I thought much the same when I read it!!

 

[DT_PITT]

I think this year's team will be better the last month of this season than last year's team was the last month of last season.

If this becomes is an undoubtedly true statement at the end of next season (and not just by a small degree), then we should think of the season as a success. In our last 32 days of last season, we were 1-7 (not as many games because of COVID). In the same time frame the year prior, we were 3-9.

The schedule would matter (who we play) a great deal, but if we close next season something like 7-5 or even 6-6, I believe this will be a truly noteworthy step forward.

 

[Chescat]

If this becomes is an undoubtedly true statement at the end of next season (and not just by a small degree), then we should think of the season as a success. In our last 32 days of last season, we were 1-7 (not as many games because of COVID). In the same time frame the year prior, we were 3-9.

The schedule would matter (who we play) a great deal, but if we close next season something like 7-5 or even 6-6, I believe this will be a truly noteworthy step forward.

Good point! Considering our
late season swoons, that would
be a positive sign for Capel,
the players, and the program
as a whole.
I'm not impressed with the
tangible (talent level), but
maybe there's some strong
intangibles (chemistry, work
ethic, motivation, hustle,
potential to overachieve).
If those are in place, it can
raise the production of
average talent. We're going
to have to rely on that,
because this team can't just
show up and expect to win.

We're I'm hopeful is that Capel
has in all three seasons been
able to get his players to over
achieve in most of our ACC
wins. Question is....can they
maintain that level over the
whole season.

 

[JS School]

Good point! Considering our
late season swoons, that would
be a positive sign for Capel,
the players, and the program
as a whole.
I'm not impressed with the
tangible (talent level), but
maybe there's some strong
intangibles (chemistry, work
ethic, motivation, hustle,
potential to overachieve).
If those are in place, it can
raise the production of
average talent. We're going
to have to rely on that,
because this team can't just
show up and expect to win.

We're I'm hopeful is that Capel
has in all three seasons been
able to get his players to over
achieve in most of our ACC
wins. Question is....can they
maintain that level over the
whole season.

I think the late season collapses may have been caused by the same players playing for themselves when the season started going downhill the last three years. I'll put much more of the blame on Capel if it happens again with this roster.

 

[Chescat]

I think the late season collapses may have been caused by the same players playing for themselves when the season started going downhill the last three years. I'll put much more of the blame on Capel if it happens again with this roster.

That's certainly true last
season. His second season's
swoon was due to injuries
and lack of depth in the
backcourt. That was Capel's
fault IMO because he was left
with a walk on and Drumgoole.
He tried to go through the
season with THREE guards.
Murphy got hurt and the team
folded. That was all on Capel.
Three guards???

BTW when "players playing for
themselves" occur, I feel that
is on the coach too. The coach
sets the culture. If he gets the
credit when his players over
achieve, then he gets the blame
when they under achieve.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

I think the late season collapses may have been caused by the same players playing for themselves when the season started going downhill the last three years. I'll put much more of the blame on Capel if it happens again with this roster.

But it was a staple at Oklahoma as well...

 

[Chescat]

But it was a staple at Oklahoma as well...

Excellent example!
By using Oklahoma as
another example of this,
you're showing a pattern
that obviously begins and
ends with the coach. Again,
the coach sets the culture.
I'm not suggesting the
players have no part in
this... they do.

What remains to be seen is
how Capel himself grows from
this. We expect players to
learn from their errors. It's
not unreasonable for Capel
to look at his program and
ask himself WHY this type
of pattern exists.

My real sense of this is that
A.D. Lyke is having this very
conversation with him.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

Is it really a surprise that Pitt has had late season collapses the last three yrs playing ACC conference games .

Yr 1) they caught people by surprise early in the conference schedule , once teams realized Pitts inability to do anything but drive to the hoop the game was over .

Yr 2 ) Trey left mid season , Toney despite his play threatened to leave , X regressed from his outstanding Fr season and I’m sure those three weren’t thrilled with JC emergence.

Yr 3 ) Let’s just say however fragile team chemistry was it exploded last yr .

The job HCJC has is finding a group that enjoys playing together and relishes another teammates success and not sleep with his girlfriend . In the era of me first it’s a big challenge, let’s hope he’s learned from the past .

 

[gary2]

Is it really a surprise that Pitt has had late season collapses the last three yrs playing ACC conference games .

Yr 1) they caught people by surprise early in the conference schedule , once teams realized Pitts inability to do anything but drive to the hoop the game was over .

Yr 2 ) Trey left mid season , Toney despite his play threatened to leave , X regressed from his outstanding Fr season and I’m sure those three weren’t thrilled with JC emergence.

Yr 3 ) Let’s just say however fragile team chemistry was it exploded last yr .

The job HCJC has is finding a group that enjoys playing together and relishes another teammates success and not sleep with his girlfriend . In the era of me first it’s a big challenge, let’s hope he’s learned from the past .

We have already seen all the players returning play unselfishly with the possible exception of Hugley.

Payton was content to play half the game at his powerhouse JC. Burton is coming to his third school. Gueye is coming from Stonybrook and interviewers have been impressed by him as a person.Olidapo is coming from Oakland. Santos is a not heavily recruited freshman.

This is a starless team. It is much more likely these guys move the ball, play defense and give consistent effort than the bunch that has departed.

Our Coach needs to take advantage of those characteristics.

If we don’t see that, I will be extremely disappointed.

 

[Thee Jackie Treehorn]

Yr 2 ) Trey left mid season

It's a minor point but McGowens left after the season was over.

 

[412boyz81]

Only in that early stretch this year did Capel's team ever look like it was playing above it's head. Other than that and the Florida State / L-ville shockers, we have not seen that much.

I don’t believe they played over there head I think they played just about right they had all there pieces and Huggs made a difference just having that extra big that could bang and you seen he started to get better and take up mins. But also at that time players weren’t banging each other’s girls at the time.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

It's a minor point but McGowens left after the season was over.

Your right , JC thought he’d leave at break .

 

[HailToPitt1985]

No chance Justin changes his mind and I would have rather had West than Burton.

We will just have to see what JC can do with these guys. To escape one of the bottom three spots in the ACC, he's going to need to help this team achieve above the sum of their parts.

And Capel's going to need some other teams that are ranked ahead of Pitt in the ACC to have very bad seasons. I think every team in the ACC will improve this coming year. It will be a matter of how much and how well Capel can grow this team synergistically and make it, as you said DT, more than the sum of its parts. Individually, it's nothing more than a bottom 3 team.

 

[Chescat]

And Capel's going to need some other teams that are ranked ahead of Pitt in the ACC to have very bad seasons. I think every team in the ACC will improve this coming year. It will be a matter of how much and how well Capel can grow this team synergistically and make it, as you said DT, more than the sum of its parts. Individually, it's nothing more than a bottom 3 team.

WHAT??!
"Every team in the ACC will
improve this coming year"....
I highly doubt it. First of all
BC is basically starting over
and is in worse shape than
Pitt. WF is still bad, and
Syracuse and Miami are
questionable at best.
They've lost players as
we have, and they haven't
restocked with better than
they lost. Even GT is worse.

Even with the very average
talent we have I believe we
can be competitive with
these teams and even beat
them. After that, we' will
probably be favored to
lose against every other
ACC team. Can we win 4
or 5 n the ACC? Given how
the league is not the ACC
of old......yes we can.
Beyond those 4 or 5
wins, I don't see it. Let's
see if Capel can get these
guys to jell. We ain't very
good, but we're not alone.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

WHAT??!
"Every team in the ACC will
improve this coming year"....
I highly doubt it. First of all
BC is basically starting over
and is in worse shape than
Pitt. WF is still bad, and
Syracuse and Miami are
questionable at best.
They've lost players as
we have, and they haven't
restocked with better than
they lost. Even GT is worse.

Even with the very average
talent we have I believe we
can be competitive with
these teams and even beat
them. After that, we' will
probably be favored to
lose against every other
ACC team. Can we win 4
or 5 n the ACC? Given how
the league is not the ACC
of old......yes we can.
Beyond those 4 or 5
wins, I don't see it. Let's
see if Capel can get these
guys to jell. We ain't very
good, but we're not alone.

I'm glad you're that optimistic about next year's Pitt team. Sorry to say, I don't see it. Every year, you guys come on here and predict we're going to win more than 3 or 4 games in the ACC and every year since Dixon left, we're one of the bottom 3 teams. And all we hear are excuses and pie in the sky dreams. If we win more than 3 ACC games this year, I'll be very surprised. And remember, for us to be making some kind of progress under Capel in his 4th year, we'd have to be winning at least 7 - 8 games this year in the ACC and getting an NIT bid. That's not going to happen unless suddenly Capel changes his philosophies and coaching and we get an influx of high level recruits before the beginning of the season.

I'll sit back and be realistic about Pitt basketball for now. At least until I see when we can get some decent recruits that can compete and a better coach, or a coach who quits making excuses for his poor coaching.

But you did get one thing right...we ain't very good. All the way around.