NCAAT this year: PSU, Rutgers, Duquesne, DePaul???
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
Probably but still. If they all get in, I am taking refuge in my underground bunker. Don't worry it has wifi so I will continue to post.
Rutgers and Penn St with DePaul needing to pick it up in the BE. Wins @Min, @IA and over TX Tech and almost every Big East win being a quality win gives them a really good path.
Pretty funny stuff. I will go out on a limb and say 2 of those 4 make it. That said, the most likely to get in right now would be ped st. and Depaul for me.
Ped st. is good enough, but, Chambers team is showing cracks by virtue of the loss to Rutgers. I do like rooting against Chambers and the peds, so I hope they collapse and get eaten alive in conference like they did last year.
My prefereence for the two who get in would be Duquesne, who will probably have to win the A-10 and Depaul who has been absent for too long to remember.
I think if Duquesne goes 15-3 in the A10, which is possible given how bad it is, they get in. 14-4, maybe. 13-5 and they probably have to win the A10T.
Frankly, Pitt has a better chance of making the NCAA tourney than Depaul.
According to teamrankings.com ... Pitt has an 11% chance.
Rutgers: 56%
PSU: 51%
Duquesne: 20%
Depaul: 4%
Odds are more likely that all four miss the dance than all four make the dance.
I'm looking for the local Royal flush. Pitt, WVU, Pedo, Dukes, Robert Morris. Every one of those teams has a fairly reasonable shot to make it. RMU looks like they will be competitive in the NEC. Toole is a good coach. WVU is a near lock. Pedo is on the inside now, can they hold their spot? Pitt has a reasonable path. Just can't afford any more Wakes. Win the home games!! The Dukes have a road game coming up at a decent Rhode Island team. That's a good test. If they can win that, and not stumble against the garbage, their chances become realistic. If they do that, and then beat Dayton, a bid would be theirs to lose. Long shot to get all five in, but it would really be fun around here if it happened.
Here is this morning's Sagarin ACC vs similarly ranked Atlantic 10 teams comparison.
As things stand today--I highlighted in blue the teams that look be likely to make the NCAATand in red teams that would be on the bubble if selection were made today based on Sagarin. [Note: I know the NCAA doesn't use Sagarin to rank teams. But, it does show likely relative team strengths and should be a decent surrogate for the purpose of this post.]
ACC
1 Duke = 95.96
8 Florida State = 89.29
22 Louisville = 86.25
42 NC State = 83.39
45 Virginia = 83.08
57 Notre Dame = 81.20
59 Pittsburgh = 81.11
60 Virginia Tech = 81.02
67 North Carolina = 80.08
70 Miami-Florida = 79.91
71 Georgia Tech = 79.89
72 Syracuse = 79.87
83 Clemson = 79.14
98 Wake Forest = 77.49
113 Boston College = 76.32
Atlantic 10
15 Dayton = 87.29
41 VCU = 83.47
76 Richmond = 79.61
85 Duquesne = 78.89
90 Saint Louis = 78.30
92 Rhode Island = 78.12
101 St. Bonaventure = 77.33
110 Davidson = 76.57
Finally--WVU (#7) and Penn State (#24) would both be in. Rutgers (#33) would also be in. The BIg 10 looks so strong they could get between 9-11 teams in (9 teams inside Sagarin top 40 and 2 more inside the top 500.
As things stand today--I highlighted in blue the teams that look be likely to make the NCAATand in red teams that would be on the bubble if selection were made today based on Sagarin. [Note: I know the NCAA doesn't use Sagarin to rank teams. But, it does show likely relative team strengths and should be a decent surrogate for the purpose of this post.]
ACC
1 Duke = 95.96
8 Florida State = 89.29
22 Louisville = 86.25
42 NC State = 83.39
45 Virginia = 83.08
57 Notre Dame = 81.20
59 Pittsburgh = 81.11
60 Virginia Tech = 81.02
67 North Carolina = 80.08
70 Miami-Florida = 79.91
71 Georgia Tech = 79.89
72 Syracuse = 79.87
83 Clemson = 79.14
98 Wake Forest = 77.49
113 Boston College = 76.32
Atlantic 10
15 Dayton = 87.29
41 VCU = 83.47
76 Richmond = 79.61
85 Duquesne = 78.89
90 Saint Louis = 78.30
92 Rhode Island = 78.12
101 St. Bonaventure = 77.33
110 Davidson = 76.57
Finally--WVU (#7) and Penn State (#24) would both be in. Rutgers (#33) would also be in. The BIg 10 looks so strong they could get between 9-11 teams in (9 teams inside Sagarin top 40 and 2 more inside the top 500.
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Kenpom. The second number after each school is the NET ranking. I added the Big East to the mix to have a power conference to compare to the ACC.
1. Duke #2
6. Louisville #17
13. FSU #18
36. Virginia #64
45. NC St. #51
58. ND #77
61. VT #49
67. Pitt #69
70. Cuse #93
71. UNC #108
85. GT #92
89. Miami #87
93. Clemson #99
95. Wake #94
A10:
8. Dayton #10
38. VCU #29
63. Richmond #45
68. Duquesne #56
81. Rhode Is. #76
86. Davidson #107
99. St. Louis #68
Big East:
5. Butler #4
14. Seton Hall #19
21. Villanova #20
35. Marquette #39
41. Xavier #52
44 Creighton #32
46. Georgetown #47
64. DePaul #73
66. Providence #78
80. St. John's #71
Both of these put Pitt about 10 spots lower than Sagarin. I split the teams up into quarters. Teams in the first quarter are strongly in the NCAA field. Most of the second quarter would also make the field today, but the bottom half of that group would have reason to be nervous. The third quarter is teams that have a chance, but they have work to do. The bottom 25 aren't even locks for the NIT, and really need to get on a roll if they want to have a chance for the NCAAs. Anything outside of the top 100 better win their conference tournament.
You can see where the BE has the advantage over the ACC this year. The two leagues are pretty much on par in the first group, but the BE is clearly better in the second grouping. The ACC is very heavy in the bottom two groupings while only 3 BE teams fall below #47.
Looking at the A10, you can clearly see the difference between the major conferences, and where the A10, and it's brethren (AAC, MWC, WCC) live. That said, if you look at the A10, you can kind of see why those leagues are really a step above the mid major level. There probably should be a separate name for these leagues. Those four have eight teams in Kenpom's top 50, the leagues below them have zero. They have 20 teams in the top 100, the other non P6 leagues have eleven total. That's a significant difference. Of those 20, the American, and A10 have 7 each.
1. Duke #2
6. Louisville #17
13. FSU #18
36. Virginia #64
45. NC St. #51
58. ND #77
61. VT #49
67. Pitt #69
70. Cuse #93
71. UNC #108
85. GT #92
89. Miami #87
93. Clemson #99
95. Wake #94
A10:
8. Dayton #10
38. VCU #29
63. Richmond #45
68. Duquesne #56
81. Rhode Is. #76
86. Davidson #107
99. St. Louis #68
Big East:
5. Butler #4
14. Seton Hall #19
21. Villanova #20
35. Marquette #39
41. Xavier #52
44 Creighton #32
46. Georgetown #47
64. DePaul #73
66. Providence #78
80. St. John's #71
Both of these put Pitt about 10 spots lower than Sagarin. I split the teams up into quarters. Teams in the first quarter are strongly in the NCAA field. Most of the second quarter would also make the field today, but the bottom half of that group would have reason to be nervous. The third quarter is teams that have a chance, but they have work to do. The bottom 25 aren't even locks for the NIT, and really need to get on a roll if they want to have a chance for the NCAAs. Anything outside of the top 100 better win their conference tournament.
You can see where the BE has the advantage over the ACC this year. The two leagues are pretty much on par in the first group, but the BE is clearly better in the second grouping. The ACC is very heavy in the bottom two groupings while only 3 BE teams fall below #47.
Looking at the A10, you can clearly see the difference between the major conferences, and where the A10, and it's brethren (AAC, MWC, WCC) live. That said, if you look at the A10, you can kind of see why those leagues are really a step above the mid major level. There probably should be a separate name for these leagues. Those four have eight teams in Kenpom's top 50, the leagues below them have zero. They have 20 teams in the top 100, the other non P6 leagues have eleven total. That's a significant difference. Of those 20, the American, and A10 have 7 each.
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If you want a laugh, UCLA is 140 on Sagarin. There are two Pac 12 teams rated even lower. There is not a single team from the other P6 leagues that are below those three. Texas A&M is the worst at 133. The Pac 12 should be kicked out of the P6.
The ACC has 3 high level ACC Tournament teams. 4 through 15 are roughly all the same. The wildcard is UVa. They may have the worst offensive talent in the league but its hard for me to imagine them not winning a ton of games due to D and coaching so they may separate themselves.
UVA is hard to pinpoint. It's not a shock that in consecutive years, they were not just beaten, but blown out by a 16 seed, and then came back and won the whole thing. I can't ever remember a team quite like them. A deep run won't shock me, and neither will another very early exit. As always, matchups are the key.
This is BY FAR his worst offensive team though. Other years he's had an NBA dude.
