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Paul Zeise in his mailbag thinks Stallings is gone after the season

We are totally winding up with Kevin Willard.
Pitt probably has his old man’s name plate stashed away, and figure they can save a couple bucks by hiring him.

Majors 1 and Majors 2
Steve P. 1 and Steve P. 2
Ralph Willard 1 and Kevin Willard 2
 
We are totally winding up with Kevin Willard.
Pitt probably has his old man’s name plate stashed away, and figure they can save a couple bucks by hiring him.

Majors 1 and Majors 2
Steve P. 1 and Steve P. 2
Ralph Willard 1 and Kevin Willard 2

It’s the perfect Pitt hire.

Get the guy with name recognition, sell the record, totally gloss over how he got his group of seniors and how long it took him to make the NCAAs.

It’ll buy them 3-4 years of people showing up because the name recognition will keep people happy and hopeful.

Like, I think Nate Oats is a solid coach but Nate Oats isn’t putting butts in seats without winning because nobody in Pittsburgh has heard of him.
 
It’s the perfect Pitt hire.

Get the guy with name recognition, sell the record, totally gloss over how he got his group of seniors and how long it took him to make the NCAAs.

It’ll buy them 3-4 years of people showing up because the name recognition will keep people happy and hopeful.

Like, I think Nate Oats is a solid coach but Nate Oats isn’t putting butts in seats without winning because nobody in Pittsburgh has heard of him.
Find the best coach that will take the job and hire him. His name should not matter. Nobody knew who Ben Howland was.
 
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Find the best coach that will take the job and hire him. His name should not matter. Nobody knew who Ben Howland was.

I mean, I've been banging the "money/attendance shouldn't factor into any decision" drum since the start of the season so you don't have to tell me.
 
Enfield was pulling a Dixon - He was just leveraging a raise - No coach leaves USC for Pitt (especially with Pitt's roster at the time) - It was never going to happen
I have to say this post given the last few years of Dixon is ironic at best.
 
I have a source -- a very good one -- who said Enfield told Pitt that if they would give him was Dixon was getting that he would come here.

Believe this if you will.

I do.
Do I believe your source heard that Enfield told Pitt that? Absolutely.

Do I believe that Enfield was coming if Pitt offered to do that? Absolutely not.
 
Yeah, but those are all just different sides of the same coin. If you can't pay for it, you can't fire him. If you don't think you are going to get a better coach (OK, you'd have to think that you could) then firing him doesn't make any sense. You need to be able to do the second and third things to be able to do the first one.

Pitt could hire another relatively bad coach that is fired after 3-4 years and still come out better than keeping Stallings.
 
3 names that haven't been mentioned yet:

Mike Hopkins - doing well at Washington Maybe we should try to play that tough Syracuse zone to level the playing field

Fred Hoiberg - may get fired from the Bulls and want back in college game. This would be a similar hire.

Shaka Smart - on the surface, seems like a WTF move. But the natives may be getting a little restless may be getting a little restless in Austin. In 3 years, he may only have 1 1st Round NCAAT loss to show for it. The AD is new, Chris Del Conte and may want his BFF, Jamie Dixon. Smart was a candidate at Gtown last year and may want to get out. He even has some local ties. He played for Cal U coach Bill Brown, 3 hours away at Kenyon then was an assistant at Cal U while getting his Masters. He then coached under the legendary Greg Dambrot. Not sure how much that helps but it couldn't hurt.
 
Pitt could hire another relatively bad coach that is fired after 3-4 years and still come out better than keeping Stallings.
No ones coming out for a disappointing hire until he shows his team can win . Why pay for two coaches at the same time ?
 
Yeah, but those are all just different sides of the same coin. If you can't pay for it, you can't fire him. If you don't think you are going to get a better coach (OK, you'd have to think that you could) then firing him doesn't make any sense. You need to be able to do the second and third things to be able to do the first one.

Pitt could hire another relatively bad coach that is fired after 3-4 years and still come out better than keeping Stallings.

I don't see how. Nate Oats or Earl Grant aren't going to sell tickets in Year 1 because they are no-names so there is no extra revenue. If they suck for 3-4 years, attendance would be as bad or worse than if they kept Stallings so in that scenario, it would have been better to suck with Stallings since we would only be paying 1 coach to suck
 
It’s not.

It’s really not.

This is a bad marriage .
The coach is failing in historic ways and the fan base is united in disdain for him.

Firing him is the easy part.
Paying for it and hiring a new coach is the hard part.

I hate agreeing with him....but yeah. This is just an untenable marriage. It is not working.

As I was explaining to someone yesterday, it is not just that "Pitt is young and playing more 1st year kids than anyone else", we really don't know how many of these guys are actually ACC level players. So it may get better somewhat, but what is "better"? 4 conference wins?
 
Enfield was pulling a Dixon - He was just leveraging a raise - No coach leaves USC for Pitt (especially with Pitt's roster at the time) - It was never going to happen

I hate to say this, but our coach turned down USC at a time, maybe twice. This ain't football. USC is not USC when it comes to basketball.
 
Our fans had our collective heads up our asses. Our expectations far exceeded actual desirability. A lot like you num nuts at prom time, you were sorely disappointed. Of course Barnes promised a splash ire. wtf.
 
I don't see how. Nate Oats or Earl Grant aren't going to sell tickets in Year 1 because they are no-names so there is no extra revenue. If they suck for 3-4 years, attendance would be as bad or worse than if they kept Stallings so in that scenario, it would have been better to suck with Stallings since we would only be paying 1 coach to suck

The reason nobody is showing up is because:
  1. Many fans hate Stallings
  2. The team is all-time bad
  3. The tickets are too expensive
Pitt could still be a below average ACC team, yet solve all three of those problems. Penn State or Georgia Tech. If we were playing like one of those teams in the next couple years, we’d draw many more fans but not sell out.
 
Well that is good. Was the wrestling coach her first hire?

He needs time but the wrestling team isn't very competitive this year. They had one good match against Ok , lost to a terrible Bucknell and Clarion teams and aren't competitive in other matches. It's ok to lose when rebuilding but show some spark and beat the team you should beat.

If that was her first hire lots of work left there.

It's not as hard to manage non revenue sports as it is to manage big time revenue sports and thats where she'll earn her pay not hiring soccer coaches.

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go Pitt & CSU Rams!
 
Pitt could hire another relatively bad coach that is fired after 3-4 years and still come out better than keeping Stallings.

Yes. But only if he would return Pitt to 10+ OOC wins and 4-6 ACC wins level.

IMHO, here are possible scenarios the admin is dealing with--

1. A name coach who is paid even more than Stallings and is almost guaranteed to have a floor of returning Pitt to 10+ OOC and 4-6 ACC wins (NIT territory) within about 3 years and potentially better in year 4 and beyond. But, $$'s for salaries through the roof but that would be offset by bringing up to half the missing fans to the Pete (and more after year 3 if the future appears bright).

2. An up and coming younger guy who might or might not accomplish the same as option #1 in terms of wins and losses but the risk is high since such a coach could fail and do no better than KS. Would still cost more money because of KS's buyout and the non-immediate return of a significant number of fans to games. Less salary money but still expensive since fans would not be back in year 2 (unless year 1 is an instant significant improvement).

3. Keep KS for 1-2 more years. High probability of little W-L improvement (particularly in the ACC. However, OOC could improve to 10-11 wins perhaps. But, continued low fan turnout and annual $$ losses would remain very high due to KS salary and anemic attendance. This would lead to a return to considering options #1 and #2 in 1-2 years when Pitt having success is an even more distant memory and could make the job even less attractive than it is now. Advantage here is a smaller KS buyout to deal with which would make option #1 more favorable in terms of money and option #2 a real bargain.

So, as Pitt Girl and others have said this is not an easy decision for the Administration since $$$ are a factor for them (and they are). It would only be an easy decision if money was not a consideration and only hiring someone who would turn things around irrespective of cost were the only consideration. It is easy to see why Pitt fans would think it is an easy decision since they only care about Ws vs Ls and don't care what Pitt needs to pay out to get to a fan favorable Ws vs Ls situation.
 
I think the empty Pete is the biggest thing. 0-18 would be awful, but most ADs would not freak out that badly in the middle of a rebuild. The attendance though in a once intimidating arena is just horrendous. I wouldn't underestimate the crowd at the nc state game maybe being the final nail in the coffin.

very POSITIVE that Pitt fans aren't like Pirates fans and DON'T stay LOYAL when the team totally sucks. Empty arena, less income can bring action.
 
My bet is Stalling stays for two more seasons. It's all about the Money, money, money!

Buyout maybe $ 6+ mill

Quality new coach maybe $ 2 mill ( the worst possible scenario is Pitt fires Stalling and doubles down on hiring another loser)

At Pitt spending money on athletics is a Zero Sum game since spending extra $ on the basketball program means Pitt Leadership goes cheap in all other athletic areas to make up that money.

The potential risks are HCPN and the other new coaches at Pitt don't get the money or resources needed to make progress in their sports while Pitt straightens out the basketball mess which was self inflicted!

If this isn't handled properly it could cause coaching turnover in other sports coupled with the state of the basketball program would be a big hole to climb out of.

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go Pitt & CSU Rams!
 
It’s not.

It’s really not.

This is a bad marriage .
The coach is failing in historic ways and the fan base is united in disdain for him.

Firing him is the easy part.
Paying for it and hiring a new coach is the hard part.

I hate agreeing with him....but yeah. This is just an untenable marriage. It is not working.

As I was explaining to someone yesterday, it is not just that "Pitt is young and playing more 1st year kids than anyone else", we really don't know how many of these guys are actually ACC level players. So it may get better somewhat, but what is "better"? 4 conference wins?

Carr - has all-ACC potential, worst-case is a good ACC player

Stewart - Cam Johnson-like potential, worst-case Sterling Smith

Davis - Antonio Graves potential. Worst-case: Chris Jones

Brown - best case: Gary McGhee, worst case: Terrell Brown with no improvement

Stevenson - tougher one to figure out. Could see him developing into a really good player or just being a 5th starter/bench guy
 
To me, when you list Pro and Con Stallings reasons why to keep or fire, they are mounting up significantly against keeping him.

Pro: (Keeping)
1) Contract, don't want to pay the buyout
2) Needs more time, current roster almost all FR and rarely is a coach let go after 2 years.
3) Already somewhat damaged reputation on expectations of the program further exacerbated by firing a coach after 2.

Con: (Firing)
1) Things aren't getting any better
2) Interest is at an all time low.
3) While young, questionable concerns on talent levels and ceilings of players
4) Recruiting doesn't seem to be any more on the upswing
5) Stallings cannot sell this program to fans
6) Lame duck status obviously will hurt recruiting.
7) How can it get any worse?
 
I don't see how. Nate Oats or Earl Grant aren't going to sell tickets in Year 1 because they are no-names so there is no extra revenue. If they suck for 3-4 years, attendance would be as bad or worse than if they kept Stallings so in that scenario, it would have been better to suck with Stallings since we would only be paying 1 coach to suck

The reason nobody is showing up is because:
  1. Many fans hate Stallings
  2. The team is all-time bad
  3. The tickets are too expensive
Pitt could still be a below average ACC team, yet solve all three of those problems. Penn State or Georgia Tech. If we were playing like one of those teams in the next couple years, we’d draw many more fans but not sell out.

How do you know Nate Oats or Earl Grant are better at coaching/recruiting than Stallings? Stallings was once them and at least proved to be mediocre at the major level
 
What about Pat Skerry? He's made Towson pretty good, won 20 games 3 times there after going 1-31 his first year. 15-8 this year and played Pitt tough. He's only 47 years old. He used to be at Pitt, not that that matters, but it doesn't hurt.
 
Pitt lost last night playing a good Miami team but the young team played pretty well and even took the lead in the second half. The zone is much better for them on defense. Offense still a work in progress.
 
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To me, when you list Pro and Con Stallings reasons why to keep or fire, they are mounting up significantly against keeping him.

Pro: (Keeping)
1) Contract, don't want to pay the buyout
2) Needs more time, current roster almost all FR and rarely is a coach let go after 2 years.
3) Already somewhat damaged reputation on expectations of the program further exacerbated by firing a coach after 2.

Con: (Firing)
1) Things aren't getting any better
2) Interest is at an all time low.
3) While young, questionable concerns on talent levels and ceilings of players
4) Recruiting doesn't seem to be any more on the upswing
5) Stallings cannot sell this program to fans
6) Lame duck status obviously will hurt recruiting.
7) How can it get any worse?


Great analysis!

On top of what you mentioned is that spending money on any sport at Pitt is a Zero Sum game.

Unlike other U's with boosters willing to fork out money on request at Pitt if you spend on one sport there's less money for other sports.

The big risk is that HCPN and other new coaches don't get the money they need and decide not to stay at Pitt.

"it's five o'clock somewhere"
Signed: Mr Buffett
Go Pitt & CSU Rams!
 
How do you know Nate Oats or Earl Grant are better at coaching/recruiting than Stallings? Stallings was once them and at least proved to be mediocre at the major level

There are plenty of coaches who get P5 jobs and get fired for not winning enough, but almost none of them go 0-18. All I’m saying is a few years of losing like Pat Chambers or Brian Gregory would certainly be below average and below expectations, but considerably better than 0-18.

Let’s say Stallings could get his team to 5-13 next year. I don’t think it is hyperbole to say a different coach finishing only 4-14 would still sell more tickets and get more fan support while doing worse. Stallings has poisoned the well and there’s no coming back from it.
 
How do you know Nate Oats or Earl Grant are better at coaching/recruiting than Stallings? Stallings was once them and at least proved to be mediocre at the major level

There are plenty of coaches who get P5 jobs and get fired for not winning enough, but almost none of them go 0-18. All I’m saying is a few years of losing like Pat Chambers or Brian Gregory would certainly be below average and below expectations, but considerably better than 0-18.

Let’s say Stallings could get his team to 5-13 next year. I don’t think it is hyperbole to say a different coach finishing only 4-14 would still sell more tickets and get more fan support while doing worse. Stallings has poisoned the well and there’s no coming back from it.

I dont think a no-name coach going 4-14 sells any extra tickets. Maybe a few extra season ticket holders show up but you better absolutely freaking sure these guys are going to win here and sooner than later because these guys could actually be worse coaches and we'd be paying a huge buyout for a worse coach.....but this is Pitt, soooo.

If you are going to eat Stallings's contract, I think you have to offset that cost with the excitement/ticket sales that a name coach would bring.
 
I dont think a no-name coach going 4-14 sells any extra tickets. Maybe a few extra season ticket holders show up but you better absolutely freaking sure these guys are going to win here and sooner than later because these guys could actually be worse coaches and we'd be paying a huge buyout for a worse coach.....but this is Pitt, soooo.

If you are going to eat Stallings's contract, I think you have to offset that cost with the excitement/ticket sales that a name coach would bring.

You found your niche and you’re going to stick to it. I get it.
 
Paul zeise needs to quit talking about pitt basketball and just continue to bore us with his incessant love of UConn women's basketball with occasional anecdotes about his rental car experiences while driving to charlotte..

never heard a radio show focus so much on women's basketball more than his show. it was comical at first, then you realize he is serious and you have to think that this is all a big joke that everyone else gets but you.
 
I dont think a no-name coach going 4-14 sells any extra tickets. Maybe a few extra season ticket holders show up but you better absolutely freaking sure these guys are going to win here and sooner than later because these guys could actually be worse coaches and we'd be paying a huge buyout for a worse coach.....but this is Pitt, soooo.

If you are going to eat Stallings's contract, I think you have to offset that cost with the excitement/ticket sales that a name coach would bring.

Or you get some people to write a check.
 
but at least you are consistent....stay home win or lose!
That's true, when I lived in Pittsburgh I went to every football game and probably 75% of the basketball games, BUT SORRY, to me it's unreasonable to be expected to drive 4 hours one way for a game. Especially since, I HATE TO DRIVE more than say an hour or half hour straight. So sorry, I don't care THAT much. If I lived in Pittsburgh, I'd probably be a hypocrite and use this season's lack of attendance to score some basketball tickets cheap or free, but drive 4 hours, no, that depresses me and I only do that 3-4 times per year. If somebody would drive me and I could sleep in the back seat or play with my phone, maybe I'd go, LOL.
 
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