Pitt/ACC rooting guide

[Elsalvador]

May have to start these threads as to which teams we need to root for which will help Pit’s cause (holding out hope, but still believe the NIT is where we’ll be).
For the ACC and other games too. Wisky over Rutgers. Bama over L$U. And there’s countless others.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

Good job. This is fun to think about.

 

[PittMan 72]

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May have to start these threads as to which teams we need to root for which will help Pit’s cause (holding out hope, but still believe the NIT is where we’ll be).
For the ACC and other games too. Wisky over Rutgers. Bama over L$U. And there’s countless others.

@Elsalvador Clemson hangs on to beat ‘Cuse at the Dome 77-68. Joe Girard‘s return to Syracuse was a good one. He had 18 points and was 4-5 from 3.

A note of interest for Pitt fans. The Orange dismissed 6’9” F Benny Williams from the team earlier this week. Williams, of course, went for 15 points and 7 rebounds vs Pitt in the game at Syracuse. Then contributed another 7 points and 5 rebounds in the Orange’s win at Pitt.

Syracuse dismisses F Williams from hoops team

Syracuse has dismissed forward Benny Williams from its men's basketball program, the school announced in a brief statement on Tuesday.

www.espn.com

 

[Elsalvador]

Because of course. Thanks @PittMan 72

 

[PittMan 72]

Because of course. Thanks @PittMan 72

Yep. Timing can mean a lot! Those might have been 2 of Williams’ best ACC games this season. 😏

 

[pittchagg]

Yep. Timing can mean a lot! Those might have been 2 of Williams’ best ACC games this season. 😏

Williams and the Copeland kid from Gettysburg.

Felt like the game plan there was similar to NC State - make Mintz and Starling work for their points, and defend well enough so that their third or deeper scorer doesn’t win the game for them. Obviously executed that way better against NC State than either Cuse game.

 

[Pitt2006]

Not a great weekend so far
Nevada beat ranked SDSU
Rutgers over Wisky
MSU over Illinois
Gonzaga over Kentucky


Good outcomes
Butler over Providence
PFW with road win
Canisius with home win
Duke over BC
Clemson over Cuse
UNC over miami
Houston over Cincy
Florida over Auburn
ND over VT
Wake close over NCST

 

[Elsalvador]

I know Pitt lost to Florida, but they’re on the bubble too. Would rather they not have a really good win, I believe.
Nebraska will avoid a bad loss vs. Michigan. UGA losing is good. Want OK State to beat OU.

 

[pittchagg]

I know Pitt lost to Florida, but they’re on the bubble too. Would rather they not have a really good win, I believe.

Florida has better metrics than us and beat us solidly H2H. The best case scenario for us is for them to be comfortably in the field and push someone else down to the bubble, because if they’re on the bubble they have the clear advantage over us.

 

[Pitt2006]

Florida has better metrics than us and beat us solidly H2H. The best case scenario for us is for them to be comfortably in the field and push someone else down to the bubble, because if they’re on the bubble they have the clear advantage over us.

Yea, that is why I put them as good win. They already beat us, Kentucky on the road, etc. let them be solidly in the field.

Marquette beat St. John’s, which looked dicey, so that was good as well.

 

[Elsalvador]

Think want Seton Hall over Nova today. Northwestern is in, so want them to win. Maybe Memphis lose?

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Last night ACC Nothing but Net analyzed what Pitt needs to do to be in the NCAAs at the end of the regular season (didn't discuss ACC Tourney helping or hurting).

Bottom line was go no worse than 6-2 the rest of the way with at least one win out of the Virginia and Clemson games and avoiding a bad loss to a bottom dweller like Louisville.

 

[Pitt2006]

Last night had a good end with Boise, Colorado, and KsU all losing. However, Mizz is in free fall mode and likely will end up being a Q4 loss. It was in Dec, so likely not a deathblow, but less room for error if that happens. GT also dropped down to a Q3 win overnight. Pitt moved up to 59 in NET over night and did leap VT, which means if only 4 ACC make ncaa, they would be automatic lock for NIT with their Net being in the next two. I fully expect them to make a run to bubble, but just stating the current info and how they would be an automatic qualifier lock for NIT and not just under consideration.

 

[Blair_45]

Winning at Virginia on Tuesday and hopefully beating Louisville comfortably at home next Saturday should be enough come next weekend this time which would be a month away from selection Sunday to put Pitt on the bubble and in next four out conversations and possibly better. Their NET would be most likely between 45-50 if they win both of these games at Virginia and home to Louisville and their record would be 17-8 overall and 8-6 in the ACC and at that point if they aren’t at least being considered or on anybody’s bubble that would be a complete bunch of garbage as far as I’m concerned.

 

[Elsalvador]

I just feel like last year, Pitt had so many good wins and this year, they only have a few. So we are pretty far from the bubble, whereas last year, we were literally the last team to get in. Winning a couple more Q1 games are paramount and winning the winnable games are a must.

 

[PittMBA]

I just feel like last year, Pitt had so many good wins and this year, they only have a few. So we are pretty far from the bubble, whereas last year, we were literally the last team to get in. Winning a couple more Q1 games are paramount and winning the winnable games are a must.

Yeah - although last years team had to overcome some bad early season losses and a poor NET. This team may end up with a higher NET.

Thst said - agree need more Quad 1 wins - could back door 1 or 2 if NC St and / or Wake sneak into quad 1 wins and of course win 2 of the remaining opportunities- which may include at least one chance in the ACC tournament.

 

[Pitt2006]

So who do we want tonight in Wake vs Duke? A wake win and they likely become a quad 1 win, but closer to tourney. It could be a case in the end of wake vs Pitt for tourney in which case we would want them to lose.

Also, no idea why the twitter poster wanted Lville over GT? Very dumb. It dropped GT to quad 3 win for Pitt which hurts. We want GT, Cuse, Mizz, NCST to win except against us.

 

[pittchagg]

So who do we want tonight in Wake vs Duke? A wake win and they likely become a quad 1 win, but closer to tourney. It could be a case in the end of wake vs Pitt for tourney in which case we would want them to lose.

Also, no idea why the twitter poster wanted Lville over GT? Very dumb. It dropped GT to quad 3 win for Pitt which hurts. We want GT, Cuse, Mizz, NCST to win except against us.

Wake. Best case scenario for us is us both getting at-large bids. Wake’s metrics are better than ours, and even with the H2H results, I think they’d get in over us if it’s us versus them.

On the other hand, if they keep winning and work themselves solidly into the field, then we’re looking at (1) our home win against them probably turning into a Q1, and (2) adding a win against a team that’s in the field.

I think that post is exclusively rooting interest for conference standing purposes, which doesn’t capture the full picture.

 

[LaRocka2012]

I'm looking forward to this week... bottom line is none of this matters if Pitt doesn't beat UVA and Lou.

If they do this then we will be able to fully monitor the rest of the season and comb through truly the NET and teams we need to win / lose. None of this matters if Pitt doesn't handle business this week.

 

[pittchagg]

I'm looking forward to this week... bottom line is none of this matters if Pitt doesn't beat UVA and Lou.

If they do this then we will be able to fully monitor the rest of the season and comb through truly the NET and teams we need to win / lose. None of this matters if Pitt doesn't handle business this week.

The season ultimately comes down to two factors that are within our control. They could get help or non-help that makes the resume look better or worse based on teams we’ve already played winning and losing, but as far as what we can control, it feels like this:

1. Record in the trio of games @UVA, @WF, and @Clemson. 0-3 is NIT, 1-2 is probably NIT but living on the razor’s edge, 2-1 is solidly on the bubble, and 3-0 is on the good side of the bubble. I don’t think the construction of those wins really matters as much as just the sheer record of that trio.

2. Must win the other five games, which include a Q4 in Louisville, two Q3’s in FSU and NC State (though NC State is on the border between Q3 and Q2), and two Q2’s in VT and @BC. Pretty non-negotiable at this point that we’ve gotta have all five.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

The season ultimately comes down to two factors that are within our control. They could get help or non-help that makes the resume look better or worse based on teams we’ve already played winning and losing, but as far as what we can control, it feels like this:

1. Record in the trio of games @UVA, @WF, and @Clemson. 0-3 is NIT, 1-2 is probably NIT but living on the razor’s edge, 2-1 is solidly on the bubble, and 3-0 is on the good side of the bubble. I don’t think the construction of those wins really matters as much as just the sheer record of that trio.

2. Must win the other five games, which include a Q4 in Louisville, two Q3’s in FSU and NC State (though NC State is on the border between Q3 and Q2), and two Q2’s in VT and @BC. Pretty non-negotiable at this point that we’ve gotta have all five.

are you copying and pasting my thoughts on 1) from the other thread? cheater cheater

 

[pittchagg]

are you copying and pasting my thoughts on 1) from the other thread? cheater cheater

Lol my bad if I did, I didn’t read it

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

Wake. Best case scenario for us is us both getting at-large bids. Wake’s metrics are better than ours, and even with the H2H results, I think they’d get in over us if it’s us versus them.

On the other hand, if they keep winning and work themselves solidly into the field, then we’re looking at (1) our home win against them probably turning into a Q1, and (2) adding a win against a team that’s in the field.

I think that post is exclusively rooting interest for conference standing purposes, which doesn’t capture the full picture.

Wake has 0 Q1 wins right now and a poor road record. They play Duke 2x, @UVA, @VT, plus us and Clemson at home.

If we sweep them and go 6-2 down the stretch I think we get in over them, assuming their road performance holds up and we didn't lose to Louisville or FSU. If we win tomorrow, I feel much better about that prediction!

 

[pittchagg]

Wake has 0 Q1 wins right now and a poor road record. They play Duke 2x, @UVA, @VT, plus us and Clemson at home.

If we sweep them and go 6-2 down the stretch I think we get in over them, assuming their road performance holds up and we didn't lose to Louisville or FSU. If we win tomorrow, I feel much better about that prediction!

They have significantly better resume and predictive metrics, played a better non-conference schedule, and currently don’t have any bad losses. Florida and Virginia are two NET ranking spots away from giving them two Q1 wins.

They’ve gotta win a road game or two, but there are a bunch of reasons why they’re listed as on the bubble right now and we aren’t. That can change in a hurry by the time 10:00 tomorrow night rolls around, though.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

They have significantly better resume and predictive metrics, played a better non-conference schedule, and currently don’t have any bad losses. Florida and Virginia are two NET ranking spots away from giving them two Q1 wins.

They’ve gotta win a road game or two, but there are a bunch of reasons why they’re listed as on the bubble right now and we aren’t. That can change in a hurry by the time 10:00 tomorrow night rolls around, though.

No question they're ahead of us now by a good margin. If they lose 4 in a row (they'll be underdogs in all of them except our game) and are still looking at VT on the road and Clemson coming up, I think things will be very different.

I think that's a much more likely outcome than them ending up safely in by the ACC tournament, which is why I'm not sure it's in our best interest for them to win tonight.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

The season ultimately comes down to two factors that are within our control. They could get help or non-help that makes the resume look better or worse based on teams we’ve already played winning and losing, but as far as what we can control, it feels like this:

1. Record in the trio of games @UVA, @WF, and @Clemson. 0-3 is NIT, 1-2 is probably NIT but living on the razor’s edge, 2-1 is solidly on the bubble, and 3-0 is on the good side of the bubble. I don’t think the construction of those wins really matters as much as just the sheer record of that trio.

2. Must win the other five games, which include a Q4 in Louisville, two Q3’s in FSU and NC State (though NC State is on the border between Q3 and Q2), and two Q2’s in VT and @BC. Pretty non-negotiable at this point that we’ve gotta have all five.

FWIW, using Torvik's tournament projector, he has us with a 2.8% chance to get in right now, and we are the 12th team out. If we win the "other five" and then go 2-1 in the "trio", here is what he has our chances at in each scenario:

Lose to Virginia, second on the last four bye list, 69.4% chance to make it
Lose to Wake, first on the last four in list, 68.0% chance
Lose to Clemson, third on the last four bye list, 67.8% chance to make it

We can quibble with the specific numbers, but I think what that shows is that if, and it's a big if, we win the "other five" that 2-1 in the "trio" will get us in.

On the other hand, even with the 5-0 he has us as between the second and fourth team out if we only win one of the "trio". So we would need help, and we would probably have to win one or two in the ACC tournament.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

FWIW, using Torvik's tournament projector, he has us with a 2.8% chance to get in right now, and we are the 12th team out. If we win the "other five" and then go 2-1 in the "trio", here is what he has our chances at in each scenario:

Lose to Virginia, second on the last four bye list, 69.4% chance to make it
Lose to Wake, first on the last four in list, 68.0% chance
Lose to Clemson, third on the last four bye list, 67.8% chance to make it

We can quibble with the specific numbers, but I think what that shows is that if, and it's a big if, we win the "other five" that 2-1 in the "trio" will get us in.

On the other hand, even with the 5-0 he has us as between the second and fourth team out if we only win one of the "trio". So we would need help, and we would probably have to win one or two in the ACC tournament.

So he copied the SMF Index because that's what I've been saying for weeks. 13-7.

 

[Pitt2006]

Not a ton of games of interest tonight aside from Pitt and Virginia, but we want:

Marquette over Butler
Iowa State over Cincy
Cuse over UNC
Kentucky over Ole Miss
Wisky over Ohio State
BYU over UCF

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Not a ton of games of interest tonight aside from Pitt and Virginia, but we want:

Marquette over Butler
Iowa State over Cincy
Cuse over UNC
Kentucky over Ole Miss
Wisky over Ohio State
BYU over UCF

Not even paying attention to any of this for another couple weeks. Way too early. Pitt needs to win tonight just to make it onto the bubble and then needs to split Wake/Clem and win the rest to have a good chance of getting in regardless of what else happens

 

[Pitt2006]

Not even paying attention to any of this for another couple weeks. Way too early. Pitt needs to win tonight just to make it onto the bubble and then needs to split Wake/Clem and win the rest to have a good chance of getting in regardless of what else happens

We forgot about Vandy Texas A&M tonight

 

[Pitt2006]

Not even paying attention to any of this for another couple weeks. Way too early. Pitt needs to win tonight just to make it onto the bubble and then needs to split Wake/Clem and win the rest to have a good chance of getting in regardless of what else happens

Also forgot about the MwC games. I suppose we want the home teams to win.
Also Florida over LSU. Lville over BC.

 

[Pitt2006]

Not a ton of games of interest tonight aside from Pitt and Virginia, but we want:

Marquette over Butler
Iowa State over Cincy
Cuse over UNC
Kentucky over Ole Miss
Wisky over Ohio State
BYU over UCF

So far so good.

Pitt with huge road win
Marquette over bubble Butler
Iowa State over bubble Cincy
Cuse over UNc to boost net
Providence over road St johns
Vandy over TxA&M with buzzer beater
Illinois St over Indiana State
Florida over LSU

 

[Elsalvador]

^^^ Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

 

[Pitt2006]

Rutgers with a good upset of Northwestern tonight.
Hoping Memphis also goes down. They are losing at the half.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Rutgers with a good upset of Northwestern tonight.
Hoping Memphis also goes down. They are losing at the half.

Memphis is going to fall to 7-5 in the American. They gotta be done. Penny is one of the worst of all time.

 

[Pitt2006]

Colorado also just lost to UCLA. Utah also lost to USC. Another good night as 4 bubble teams (NW, Utah, Colorado, Memphis) all go down on the road…