Potential changes to the 12 team CFP

[HailToPitt725]

It still wouldn't be enough. As another poster stated, there isn't a market for minor leagues. Even minor leagues in baseball don't have billion dollar TV contracts, much less football or basketball.

College football is unique in that you have built in fan bases due to alumni. However, it's a group of fanbases cobbled together. It's not like the NFL, where people watch just because it's the NFL. For example, Georgia fans don't care anything about Oregon, so far as it goes. Georgia only have tangential interest because their school competes at the same level as Oregon.

If you do away with 1/2 or 2/3 of the schools by relegating them to a lower classification, those fans won't have interest in the Big Ten/SEC league. For example, if Clemson gets left out, Clemson fans won't start rooting for South Carolina. They will just stop watching. I know you think it won't matter if Oregon St., Baylor, etc. fans aren't included, but it will. The numbers just don't add up.

I think you make a lot of good points. However, two things I’ll add:

1) Although CFB is trending towards becoming NFL Lite, I think you need to view it as a separate major league sport rather than a minor league to the NFL. It’s pretty much on-par with the NBA as the next most popular sports entity in the U.S. ahead of the MLB, MLS, and NHL. Even though I believe they’ve bastardized it all, there will be a market for it now and in the future.

2) In regards to viewership and who cares about who, I think the idea behind a ‘super league’ is that it will draw the casual viewer much more than what the current state of college football does. Disney and FOX know, using your example, the Georgia and Oregon fanbases will always be there. Getting the casual fans from major metropolitan areas that have no affiliation to either school will be much more probable if they showcase Georgia/Oregon instead of Georgia/Vanderbilt and Oregon/Oregon State, to the point where they could outdraw any lost viewers from schools that aren’t included.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

I am not sure anything really changes because the vast majority of FBS college football programs are not really competing for a national championship and their fans are still watching.

Does viewership require the illusion that you have a chance to eventually compete for a national championship?

Do viewership numbers support your theory?

 

[pafootballguy]

Do viewership numbers support your theory?

I am not sure what you mean by the question.

My question is does fan/alumni viewership require having the opportunity to compete for the top prize no matter if really have zero chance of winning it?

If you are say a Kansas football fan are you going to stop watching college football because you don't have an opportunity to win "The" National Championship when in reality you were never really competing for it.

I am not sure I agree with the idea that college football fans are going to stop watching college football because they are no longer competing for the big prize when the vast majority are already not really competing for it.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

I am not sure what you mean by the question.

My question is does fan/alumni viewership require having the opportunity to compete for the top prize no matter if really have zero chance of winning it?

If you are say a Kansas football fan are you going to stop watching college football because you don't have an opportunity to win "The" National Championship when in reality you were never really competing for it.

I am not sure I agree with the idea that college football fans are going to stop watching college football because they are no longer competing for the big prize when the vast majority are already not really competing for it.

My view is different. Kansas fans will quick watching college football because they don't care anymore. Every year they have the opportunity to win the Big 12, and with that opportunity a playoff berth. Whether you think that's likely or not doesn't matter.

If the B1G and SEC break off into an upper tier league, and college football fractures, a lot of general college football fans won't care about college football anymore.

The business case is how many people still watch and how many teams need to be fed? There's also critical mass with TV that drives what people are willing to pay for your rights.

Personally I think the only way they separation works is using the large fan bases and pay-per-view.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Also, the national college football media doesn't help matters much. Reporters like Mandel, Forde, Auerbach, Feldman are glorified fanboys/girls. They sound like kids awaiting Christmas morning talking about the upcoming week zero games rather than write anything critical about the state of college football. Alabama-Georgia for a 3rd rematch in a season in the championship for the 5th year in a row? Sure bring it on! We love it, nothing wrong with a system that produces that year in and year out.

This is so true. They seem to openly root for this conference flipping chaos.

 

[topdecktiger]

I think you make a lot of good points. However, two things I’ll add:

1) Although CFB is trending towards becoming NFL Lite, I think you need to view it as a separate major league sport rather than a minor league to the NFL. It’s pretty much on-par with the NBA as the next most popular sports entity in the U.S. ahead of the MLB, MLS, and NHL. Even though I believe they’ve bastardized it all, there will be a market for it now and in the future.

2) In regards to viewership and who cares about who, I think the idea behind a ‘super league’ is that it will draw the casual viewer much more than what the current state of college football does. Disney and FOX know, using your example, the Georgia and Oregon fanbases will always be there. Getting the casual fans from major metropolitan areas that have no affiliation to either school will be much more probable if they showcase Georgia/Oregon instead of Georgia/Vanderbilt and Oregon/Oregon State, to the point where they could outdraw any lost viewers from schools that aren’t included.

The problem with your #1 point goes back to my original point. College football is only as popular as you mention because, at it's core, it's made up of a coalition of various alumni bases. It's sort of greater than the sum of its parts. It's also less stable and easier to fracture that the pro leagues, for that reason.

Also, it's popular for that same reason, which is not why the pro leagues are popular. The NFL is popular because it's the best football league on the planet. Ditto for the NBA and MLB. That's the draw for the pro leagues. That's a completely different dynamic from college football.

This also leads into my disagreement with point #2. For the reason I just stated, the casual fan doesn't really exist for college football, not the way it does for the pro sports. There simply won't be enough casual fans to make up the difference.

Just an example of this, a lot of the viewership of a school is not just it's own fanbase, but rival fanbases. Georgia Tech fans will watch just to see Georgia lose. Florida St. fans will watch just to see Florida lose. Clemson fans will watch just to see South Carolina lose.

Now your problem is, if Clemson gets relegated to the equivalent of FCS, Clemson fans won't watch at all, not even to see South Carolina lose. Not only because of lack of interest, but because of outright anger that their team was essentially destroyed. You have not only apathy, but outright hostility. You do that will all these other schools, and you took too large of a chunk from the fanbase.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I am not sure what you mean by the question.

My question is does fan/alumni viewership require having the opportunity to compete for the top prize no matter if really have zero chance of winning it?

If you are say a Kansas football fan are you going to stop watching college football because you don't have an opportunity to win "The" National Championship when in reality you were never really competing for it.

I am not sure I agree with the idea that college football fans are going to stop watching college football because they are no longer competing for the big prize when the vast majority are already not really competing for it.

Yes but you are still part of it. I mean I watch the World Series. I am in an MLB city (well sort of). But I could care less about the NBA. I might casually watch. But in college football, I waste most of the most absolutely beautiful time of the year watching football. You take Pitt out of major college football? My fall Saturday's are now free.

 

[topdecktiger]

Does viewership require the illusion that you have a chance to eventually compete for a national championship?

Yes.

 

[Pitt79]

You take Pitt out of major college football? My fall Saturday's are now free.

Mine will stay the same, I'll still watch just the Pitt game and almost nothing else. As long as I can get the Pitt games on TV my weekend schedule will be the same as now, Pitt on Saturday and the Steelers on Sunday and nothing else is a sure thing, I might watch more games or not.

 

[forbesfield]

Yes but you are still part of it. I mean I watch the World Series. I am in an MLB city (well sort of). But I could care less about the NBA. I might casually watch. But in college football, I waste most of the most absolutely beautiful time of the year watching football. You take Pitt out of major college football? My fall Saturday's are now free.

What's really different about it, no matter what they do? We can probably already name the teams that will survive next year's first 12 team CFP and wind up in the final four group. This doesn't really change anything for every other team.

 

[topdecktiger]

What's really different about it, no matter what they do? We can probably already name the teams that will survive next year's first 12 team CFP and wind up in the final four group. This doesn't really change anything for every other team.

Yeah, it changes a lot. College football has been built on an illusion. The nationally championship used to just a popularity contest among sportswriters. Schools could brag about winning bowl games, beating ranked teams, finishing in the Top 25, etc.

You make it where only 30-40 schools are competing in the top level, and you lose the fans of the other ~60 schools.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Yes.

Yeah, it changes a lot. College football has been built on an illusion. The nationally championship used to just a popularity contest among sportswriters. Schools could brag about winning bowl games, beating ranked teams, finishing in the Top 25, etc.

You make it where only 30-40 schools are competing in the top level, and you lose the fans of the other ~60 schools.

Not all, but yes definitely a share and probably a good share.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

I am not sure what you mean by the question.

My question is does fan/alumni viewership require having the opportunity to compete for the top prize no matter if really have zero chance of winning it?

If you are say a Kansas football fan are you going to stop watching college football because you don't have an opportunity to win "The" National Championship when in reality you were never really competing for it.

I am not sure I agree with the idea that college football fans are going to stop watching college football because they are no longer competing for the big prize when the vast majority are already not really competing for it.

Do the numbers support your theory?

Kansas fans don’t care about their own football team, so what makes you think they are tuning in to watch anyone else? They are getting geared up for Kansas Basketball come October. There is a large portion of the country that will tune out because they already have one foot out the door.

 

[pafootballguy]

Do the numbers support your theory?

Kansas fans don’t care about their own football team, so what makes you think they are tuning in to watch anyone else? They are getting geared up for Kansas Basketball come October. There is a large portion of the country that will tune out because they already have one foot out the door.

If the only fans watching the playoff are fans of the teams, conferences, and diehards then having only 2 super conferences will have little impact on the TV ratings.

I am an outlier in that I love college football and will watch damn near any game that is one from Macation to Hawaii at home kicking off at 11:30 PM. I struggle to understand the causal fan who only watches their alumni mater or favorite team and doesn't really care to watch the sport as a whole.

I don't have answers or numbers and my question was just more of a curiosity about the needing the illusion of access to the national championship to enjoy the sport.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

What I find almost disturbing is fans like you wanting to watch OTHER PEOPLE'S alma maters play each other and help increase THEIR RATINGS AND RICHES and enlarge the gap between them and YOUR SCHOOL. Truly fans of teams being left out should boycott this super league concept and hope it fails.

I want no such thing. But you always have had a problem in figuring out the difference between what someone (including yourself) wants and what is actually happening and what is likely to happen in the future here in the real world.

You can stick your fingers in your ears and yell "I'm not listening, I'm not listening" all you want, but that isn't going to change what is actually going to happen.

 

[Pitt79]

I want no such thing. But you always have had a problem in figuring out the difference between what someone (including yourself) wants and what is actually happening and what is likely to happen in the future here in the real world.

You can stick your fingers in your ears and yell "I'm not listening, I'm not listening" all you want, but that isn't going to change what is actually going to happen.

I guess we'll find out if the ratings stay high when it's nothing but SEC and B1G? Hopefully if Pitt is left out all their games are on TV so Pitt specific fans will have something to watch.

 

[Pitt79]

I am an outlier in that I love college football and will watch damn near any game that is one from Macation to Hawaii at home kicking off at 11:30 PM. I struggle to understand the causal fan who only watches their alumni mater or favorite team and doesn't really care to watch the sport as a whole.

Don't you have anything else to do? when you have great fall weather, do you really want to be in front of a TV 12 hours every Saturday?

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

I guess we'll find out if the ratings stay high when it's nothing but SEC and B1G? Hopefully if Pitt is left out all their games are on TV so Pitt specific fans will have something to watch.

Our program will be gone when that happens.

But we have lots of old games on YouTube.

 

[Pitt79]

Our program will be gone when that happens.

But we have lots of old games on YouTube.

I can't see that, so much college football is on TV now. I think even in that future where Pitt isn't in the big league, I still think they can keep playing and be on TV, just like JMU or North Dakota are now, the real Pitt fans like me will still be there, even when people like you walk away.

 

[pafootballguy]

Don't you have anything else to do? when you have great fall weather, do you really want to be in front of a TV 12 hours every Saturday?

I archery hunt and fly fish, outside of those two very little in the fall appeals to me.

 

[Pitt79]

I archery hunt and fly fish, outside of those two very little in the fall appeals to me.

That's cool, at least you do other stuff. One poster here talked about how real college football fans turn on the games at noon and watch until after midnight every Saturday, I'd get sick of football if I did that. I usually watch Pitt on Saturday and Steelers on Sunday and anything else is optional, depending on weather and other activities.

 

[NTOP]

That's cool, at least you do other stuff. One poster here talked about how real college football fans turn on the games at noon and watch until after midnight every Saturday, I'd get sick of football if I did that. I usually watch Pitt on Saturday and Steelers on Sunday and anything else is optional, depending on weather and other activities.

I only watch Pitt fb and a few others in the ACC. I watch about 25% of the Stillers games, mainly to see KP8. The endless talking head shows are garbage...hell, they don't even help the addicted bettors. Saw none of the GA/TCU epic.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

SEC and Big 10 want at least 2 auto bids each, if not more. if they dont get it and any conference stands in the way, they are going to "Pac 12" your conference..

 

[pittdan77]

It still wouldn't be enough. As another poster stated, there isn't a market for minor leagues. Even minor leagues in baseball don't have billion dollar TV contracts, much less football or basketball.

College football is unique in that you have built in fan bases due to alumni. However, it's a group of fanbases cobbled together. It's not like the NFL, where people watch just because it's the NFL. For example, Georgia fans don't care anything about Oregon, so far as it goes. Georgia only have tangential interest because their school competes at the same level as Oregon.

If you do away with 1/2 or 2/3 of the schools by relegating them to a lower classification, those fans won't have interest in the Big Ten/SEC league. For example, if Clemson gets left out, Clemson fans won't start rooting for South Carolina. They will just stop watching. I know you think it won't matter if Oregon St., Baylor, etc. fans aren't included, but it will. The numbers just don't add up.

Yeah, it's kind of dubious to argue that most CFB fans will just switch allegiances or have anything more than a passing interest in the schools that forced their favorite school's hand.

 

[cashisking884]

SEC and Big 10 want at least 2 auto bids each, if not more. if they dont get it and any conference stands in the way, they are going to "Pac 12" your conference..

They will do that because they actually want teams in your conference, not because you stood in the way of it.

It’s also a weird hill to die on if you are one of the other conferences. Does anybody actually believe the SEC doesn’t have two of the top 4 or 5 teams in the country every year? If the playoffs are set up to where there aren’t automatic conference champ bids, there’s not going to be a top 2 SEC team in the playoffs that doesn’t unquestionably belong in it. So who cares?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

the real Pitt fans like me will still be there

This is hilarious knowing the context that for years you bragged about the fact that you only went to one game a year most years, and you only ever went when you got a free ticket.

 

[Pitt79]

This is hilarious knowing the context that for years you bragged about the fact that you only went to one game a year most years, and you only ever went when you got a free ticket.

That's irrelevant, I don't have to go in person to every game or give them money to be a real fan, I watched and recorded every game and rewatched every game while you were watching Bama play, and if they go to D3 or worse, I'll go way way way out of my way to stream their game vs. Geneva while you're watching the Bama game, so yes, I'm a real fan, way more of a fan than you are. You're a huge fan of college football in general, watching from noon, until the last Hawaii game ends 2am Sunday, but I'm a hard-core Pitt specific fan who hasn't missed a game in decades.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

I can't see that, so much college football is on TV now. I think even in that future where Pitt isn't in the big league, I still think they can keep playing and be on TV, just like JMU or North Dakota are now, the real Pitt fans like me will still be there, even when people like you walk away.

Some schools will still play.

Pitt football will be gone.

 

[Pitt79]

Some schools will still play.

Pitt football will be gone.

Explain, why would they just end the program if they aren't in this league? Why can't they be G5 or FCS? It would be sad if it went away completely, I'd quit watching all college football if that happened.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

TopDeck is correct and I've said the same thing. College football is popular because it has mass appeal. Every American has a team in it. If you create a separate Big Ten/SEC division or playoff, you eliminate a large portion of fans from 70-80 teams. Will some Pitt or WVU or Akron fans still watch Alabama/Tennessee? Yes. But a lot wont. Its a basic fact that fans are more engaged with a league if their team is in it. Move the Pens to Cleveland and Cavs to Pittsburgh and guess what those 2 towns start following? There arent enough Joe Blow non-B10, non-SEC alums who love football that much that they will tune in religiously to a minor league that their team isnt in.

 

[Pitt79]

TopDeck is correct and I've said the same thing. College football is popular because it has mass appeal. Every American has a team in it. If you create a separate Big Ten/SEC division or playoff, you eliminate a large portion of fans from 70-80 teams. Will some Pitt or WVU or Akron fans still watch Alabama/Tennessee? Yes. But a lot wont. Its a basic fact that fans are more engaged with a league if their team is in it. Move the Pens to Cleveland and Cavs to Pittsburgh and guess what those 2 towns start following? There arent enough Joe Blow non-B10, non-SEC alums who love football that much that they will tune in religiously to a minor league that their team isnt in.

College sports are different from pro sports in a major way. A lot of college fans are there only for their association to the school, not necessarily for the sport at all. If you go to a football game at places like Grove City or Westminster or Geneva, you'll find dedicated fans who show up every week, it's not about the quality of play or the national rankings and all about that they went to school there or live there. It's like high school sports too, I'm 40 years out of HS and still bleed my HS colors, I could never watch an IMG game with all their top ranked players, but my school? it's still 1975 if I watch them.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

We don’t have a huge fanbase to begin with
We’re in a major league only region
Few will buy tickets. Few will attend. Few will donate
No conference delivering big checks, and football is very expensive
We don’t have a stadium (you may have heard this lament a few times). We can call Omar Khan today and be out of our lease at Acrisure tomorrow and never look back.
Essentially it will simply be too easy to drop it.

 

[forbesfield]

We're not going to drop anything until it's clear that the money coming in isn't worth the money going out. It will be a simple math equation.

I could see a number of schools going the D-3 route, perhaps, a la CMU.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

We're not going to drop anything until it's clear that the money coming in isn't worth the money going out. It will be a simple math equation.

I could see a number of schools going the D-3 route, perhaps, a la CMU.

Ok, but even more simple to see that the money will not be coming in at all, yet a whole lot would still be going out

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

That's irrelevant, I don't have to go in person to every game or give them money to be a real fan, I watched and recorded every game and rewatched every game while you were watching Bama play, and if they go to D3 or worse, I'll go way way way out of my way to stream their game vs. Geneva while you're watching the Bama game, so yes, I'm a real fan, way more of a fan than you are. You're a huge fan of college football in general, watching from noon, until the last Hawaii game ends 2am Sunday, but I'm a hard-core Pitt specific fan who hasn't missed a game in decades.

Once again your stupidity shows through.

I have been to, not watched on television, but actually attended in the stadium, every single game that Pitt has played at Heinz/Acrisure since the building opened. My first year with Pitt season tickets as a student was in 1982, and since then I have missed a grand total of FOUR Pitt home games.

Unlike you, no one has to give me a free ticket for me to go. I pay for my own tickets. I donate money. The notion that a guy like you who does the bare minimum to be considered a fan is what a "real fan" actually is is hilarious. You are, always have been, and always will be, a "casual" Pitt fan. You are a Pitt fan if and when it is convienent for you.

Which is fine, because god knows there aren't enough of those But what would be better, much better in fact, would be for casual fans like you to actually become "real fans". Buy tickets and go to the games. Donate money. Do the things that "real fans" at our competitor schools do.

 

[Pitt79]

Once again your stupidity shows through.

I have been to, not watched on television, but actually attended in the stadium, every single game that Pitt has played at Heinz/Acrisure since the building opened. My first year with Pitt season tickets as a student was in 1982, and since then I have missed a grand total of FOUR Pitt home games.

Unlike you, no one has to give me a free ticket for me to go. I pay for my own tickets. I donate money. The notion that a guy like you who does the bare minimum to be considered a fan is what a "real fan" actually is is hilarious. You are, always have been, and always will be, a "casual" Pitt fan. You are a Pitt fan if and when it is convienent for you.

Which is fine, because god knows there aren't enough of those But what would be better, much better in fact, would be for casual fans like you to actually become "real fans". Buy tickets and go to the games. Donate money. Do the things that "real fans" at our competitor schools do.

You're just plain STUPID, your anal obsession with going to every game means nothing, and in fact, I'm an AVID PITT FAN, there's no obligation to show up every game in person or give them money to qualify. Unlike you I have a life outside of sports fandom and live 4 hours away. So, for a SANE person like me, TV watching is the best option. And I guess as a real fan, it will be fine for you to TOTALLY BAIL on Pitt Football if they drop to a lower level, WOW what a great fan

 

[pittdan77]

They will do that because they actually want teams in your conference, not because you stood in the way of it.

It’s also a weird hill to die on if you are one of the other conferences. Does anybody actually believe the SEC doesn’t have two of the top 4 or 5 teams in the country every year? If the playoffs are set up to where there aren’t automatic conference champ bids, there’s not going to be a top 2 SEC team in the playoffs that doesn’t unquestionably belong in it. So who cares?

Sometimes, really good teams get left out of playoff formats at the expense of inferior teams. That's just how it works. Honestly though, the auto bids wouldn't be necessary anyway because the SEC is already getting at least two teams in, most years and the TV people will make sure the money makers are there.

 

[pittdan77]

I think you make a lot of good points. However, two things I’ll add:

1) Although CFB is trending towards becoming NFL Lite, I think you need to view it as a separate major league sport rather than a minor league to the NFL. It’s pretty much on-par with the NBA as the next most popular sports entity in the U.S. ahead of the MLB, MLS, and NHL. Even though I believe they’ve bastardized it all, there will be a market for it now and in the future.

2) In regards to viewership and who cares about who, I think the idea behind a ‘super league’ is that it will draw the casual viewer much more than what the current state of college football does. Disney and FOX know, using your example, the Georgia and Oregon fanbases will always be there. Getting the casual fans from major metropolitan areas that have no affiliation to either school will be much more probable if they showcase Georgia/Oregon instead of Georgia/Vanderbilt and Oregon/Oregon State, to the point where they could outdraw any lost viewers from schools that aren’t included.

I'll respond to all of that by saying, if the mode of having a limited number of "super teams" is going to work, colleges should just eliminate the notion of eligibility requirements and graduation and compete directly with the NFL. The NFL makes a lot more money than the SEC and B1G. Why not go after a bigger slice of that pie?

 

[HailToPitt725]

I'll respond to all of that by saying, if the mode of having a limited number of "super teams" is going to work, colleges should just eliminate the notion of eligibility requirements and graduation and compete directly with the NFL. The NFL makes a lot more money than the SEC and B1G. Why not go after a bigger slice of that pie?

I think we’re inching closer towards that. I wouldn’t be surprised in the near future if the so-called ‘super league’ retains affiliation with universities in name only. If that happens, the relationship between college football and the NFL could become more like the MLS and Premier League than, say, AAA baseball and the MLB.

 

[pittdan77]

I think we’re inching closer towards that. I wouldn’t be surprised in the near future if the so-called ‘super league’ retains affiliation with universities in name only. If that happens, the relationship between college football and the NFL could become more like the MLS and Premier League than, say, AAA baseball and the MLB.

No idea what the eventual endgame is but it stands to reason that if your revenue sources hit a glass ceiling and you want to keep growing, you change your model or your product. I will say that going after the post merger NFL has traditionally been a terrible idea.