Yeah I don’t see how what I said was trolling. The hyperbole Horton has gotten is insane. He wasn’t all CAA his only year but his FLOOR is all ACC??? Wtf
Vader Recruiting: Top returning talent in the ACC and Next Years Team
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"Not being able to get into things faster is a sign of not being organized."
True, it often can be lack of organization. However, in Pitt's case, IMHO, that was not the main factor. Instead, I suspect Capel, recognizing our lack of defensive rebounding roster talent, and the need for defensive rebounding to be a 5-man effort to compensate, intentionally did not run a break out of rebounding situations. Also, since secondary break scoring often comes via a kick out or just a pass to a wide open jump shooter (vs a lay-up/dunk) and given our poor jump shooting (especially 3-ball) it likely made very little sense to try and run a secondary break.
But, that was last year's situation. With a very different and presumably greatly improved roster for defensive rebounding the situation is now potentially very different. Hopefully we will see fewer numbers of half-court possessions vs already back and set-up half-court defenses--at least by late season when freshmen are playing more like sophomores.
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Yeah, I think we'll be a little bit faster than last year because I think the offense and rebounding are going to be better. Last year was probably unusually slow because our offense was so bad that in order to stay in games, it was probably wise to lessen the number of possessions.
But I don't think it's going to be a whole lot faster or anything. I think the 2018-19 number of right around #200 - maybe between 150-200 - is fair.
Any good coach plays to his players strength . If JC brings in enough guys who can fill it up then the tempo will be faster .
It was that moment - a crafty troll just starts becoming so obvious - that you pull the trigger. Been coming for a while now, I choose not to spend my time on agenda driven haters "keepin it real". He crossed that line finally for me.
I think some of that hyperbole is in your head. I don't think anyone expects Horton to even be all-ACC let alone MJ reincarnated.
Like I mentioned earlier, his skillset looks like it will travel well to the ACC.
^^^^
Between cougar claws Vader and Capel calling him the best scorer in the ACC they have hyped this kid to a point where he couldn’t possibly live up to expectations.... and if he does we will be top 3 in the ACC next year.
Capel and Johnson both say he's the real deal. Hard not to be optimistic.
This article was surely already posted here, but hey, why not:
"Horton, a 6-foot-3 sophomore guard, transferred to Pitt from the University of Delaware in July and has been forced to watch the season unfold from the sidelines as a result. Although Horton hasn't made an impact on the court for the Panthers this season, his presence is felt during practices.
To hear Jeff Capel and Xavier Johnson tell it, that may be putting it mildly.
"He's really tough," Johnson was saying of Horton Monday at Petersen Events Center. "He's a good scorer. He can score at all three levels. I think he's a pro scorer, for real."
Capel didn't delve into "pro" discussions, but he approached that level of praise.
"I tell our guys that if you can guard him [Horton] in practice, I haven't seen a better guy in this league that they will have to guard," Capel was saying. "So if you can do a good job on him, then you have a chance to carry that over in the game. He gives us a great look when we're playing against, whether it's an Elijah Hughes, [Landers] Nolley, [Tomas] Woldetensae ... and every team has 'a guy' — [Jordan] Nwora — he's been these guys and he does a very, very good job of simulating them, but in his own way because he's a little bit different."
Horton's current impact is not lost on Johnson, who says the transfer guard has helped him become a better on-ball defender simply by working against him in practice. Johnson was then quick to discuss an additional layer of Horton's game — and it's something the Panthers could, unfortunately, use right now.
"Next season, I mean, he's a scorer, so you don't really have to create for him," Johnson said. "He can create for himself."
https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/...-guard-transfer-jeff-capel-next-year-hype-hh/
This article was surely already posted here, but hey, why not:
"Horton, a 6-foot-3 sophomore guard, transferred to Pitt from the University of Delaware in July and has been forced to watch the season unfold from the sidelines as a result. Although Horton hasn't made an impact on the court for the Panthers this season, his presence is felt during practices.
To hear Jeff Capel and Xavier Johnson tell it, that may be putting it mildly.
"He's really tough," Johnson was saying of Horton Monday at Petersen Events Center. "He's a good scorer. He can score at all three levels. I think he's a pro scorer, for real."
Capel didn't delve into "pro" discussions, but he approached that level of praise.
"I tell our guys that if you can guard him [Horton] in practice, I haven't seen a better guy in this league that they will have to guard," Capel was saying. "So if you can do a good job on him, then you have a chance to carry that over in the game. He gives us a great look when we're playing against, whether it's an Elijah Hughes, [Landers] Nolley, [Tomas] Woldetensae ... and every team has 'a guy' — [Jordan] Nwora — he's been these guys and he does a very, very good job of simulating them, but in his own way because he's a little bit different."
Horton's current impact is not lost on Johnson, who says the transfer guard has helped him become a better on-ball defender simply by working against him in practice. Johnson was then quick to discuss an additional layer of Horton's game — and it's something the Panthers could, unfortunately, use right now.
"Next season, I mean, he's a scorer, so you don't really have to create for him," Johnson said. "He can create for himself."
https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/...-guard-transfer-jeff-capel-next-year-hype-hh/
I understand being skeptical of the hyperbole , but really what good could it possibly do if he isn’t the real deal ? I for one can’t wait to see him suit it up in fall .
I’m not skeptical of him being good. I think he should be a very solid player. I’m skeptical of the over top compliments saying he’s the best scorer in the ACC or All ACC next year.
I’m not sure why it’s such a slight to say he’s gonna be a solid player who averages between 8-10 points. It’s not.
Parker Stewart averaged that on an 0-18 team. Averaging 10 points on a team that goes 0-18 means nothing. Averaging 10 points on a good team means you’re a good solid player. It boggles my mind that people think that’s a slight.
I just cannot imagine how you can be left off 3 All CAA teams and become the best scorer in the ACC in 3 months. I mean... you guys know the CAA sucks right
That is a reasonable range for Horton---IF-- we are not talking about him solely being a swap-out for McGowens who averaged 11.5 ppg meaning team scoring could drop several points per game.
On the other hand, if enough additional scoring will be coming out of other positions than did last year--due to overall greater talent and depth-- and that makes up for more than the difference between McGowen's 11.5 and a lesser amount from Horton, then the 8-10 is reasonable.
Regardless, assuming a major reason for McGowens leaving was Horton taking his spot, I suspect Capel is expecting to get more than 8-10 out of Horton.
For the record bc I know his pure reason for leaving had nothing to do with Horton.
1) He wanted to play on a team that he could be a primary pg (and play off the ball too) and not just one 20% of the time when X was out of the game.
2) He wanted to play faster so he went to a team that was #16 in the country in adjusted tempo and #5 in average possession length. Pitt was #308 in adjusted tempo and #299 in average possession length.
3) He wanted to play in an open post 5 out offense with shooters around him and with no bigs clogging up the lane, which allows more room to operate.
4) Wanted to play for a coach with NBA experience as a HC and general manager and someone who’s had great success with transfers.
That’s it, he loved Pitt, his coaches and his teammates and even considered staying until the last minute before deciding to transfer bc he wanted to finish what he started but ultimately decided to bet on himself and go to a better fit for his playing style and mentally get his head back.
And yes, he’s got to improve on his shooting,decision making,handles, etc but a year off with the right player development can be the difference for him.
1) He wanted to play on a team that he could be a primary pg (and play off the ball too) and not just one 20% of the time when X was out of the game.
2) He wanted to play faster so he went to a team that was #16 in the country in adjusted tempo and #5 in average possession length. Pitt was #308 in adjusted tempo and #299 in average possession length.
3) He wanted to play in an open post 5 out offense with shooters around him and with no bigs clogging up the lane, which allows more room to operate.
4) Wanted to play for a coach with NBA experience as a HC and general manager and someone who’s had great success with transfers.
That’s it, he loved Pitt, his coaches and his teammates and even considered staying until the last minute before deciding to transfer bc he wanted to finish what he started but ultimately decided to bet on himself and go to a better fit for his playing style and mentally get his head back.
And yes, he’s got to improve on his shooting,decision making,handles, etc but a year off with the right player development can be the difference for him.
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For sure he is expecting more. But if champ averages doubles and XJ averages doubles it’s tough to see enough shots for Toney, Horton, etc etc. this is what I’m basing this on.
Again, it’s just my opinion. It shouldn’t make people mad. I’ve used evidence to back up my thoughts on transferring up, level of play... etc. I just don’t find quotes about practice to be sufficient evidence to change my mind. If he averages 10-11 and replaces the exact production McGowens had but shoots 39 percent from 3 is anyone really gonna be mad?
From Synergy Sports Technology numbers:
This data analysis breakdown details his freshman and sophomore seasons.
As a freshman, he averaged 11.6 points and 1.7 assists while producing 1.079 points per possession (PPP) between his buckets and assists (45th percentile nationally). Individually, McGowens scored 0.897 PPP, good for the 55th percentile (good).
As a sophomore, he put up 11.5 points and 3.6 assists, upping his distributing while taking a step back in his own efficiency. McGowens produced 1.066 PPP (46th percentile), though his assist-to-turnover ratio jumped from 0.7 to 1.2 and his assist rate increased from 11.4% to 18.6%.
It’s worth pointing out that Pittsburgh was one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country without a single player who made better than a third of his attempts. That isn’t exactly an ideal environment for a slashing, play-making guard.
As a freshman, McGowens’ most common play type was transition. He got out in the open floor on 32% of his plays, scoring 1.241 PPP while shooting 58.1% from the field and earning his way to the foul line 28.5% of the time. He led the break himself as the ball-handler nearly 60% of the time and scored 1.241 PPP (92nd percentile, “excellent”).
He didn’t get as many opportunities to run as a sophomore with 54 fewer possessions as transition only made up 16.9% of his total plays. His effectiveness dropped as well, down to 0.904 PPP. He shot less than 50% from the field and his foul rate dropped as well.
Former Husker commit Xavier Johnson had the ball in his hands quite a lot, so McGowens spent a lot of time spotting up.
As a freshman, 29.9% of his plays were spot-ups (which includes both jumpers and attacking off the catch). Of his 128 possessions, 52 were catch-and-shoot opportunities and he shot just 28.6%, scoring 0.962 PPP (39th percentile, average”). On nearly a quarter of his plays, he attacked the basket, shooting 9-of-24 and scoring 0.968 PPP (43rd percentile, “average”).
He shot 17-of-51 on catch-and-shoot opportunities and scored 1.0 PPP (49th percentile, “average”).
McGowens didn’t show much off-ball equity at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh also didn’t run him off screens or use him as a cutter very much at all.
McGowens shot 15-of-51 on catch-and-shoot looks as a freshman (0.902 PPP, 34th percentile, “average”) and 20-of-56 as a sophomore (10.071 PPP, 67th percentile, “very good”). The improvement as a sophomore is a good sign, especially on his unguarded looks which went from 0.944 PPP to 1.2PPP.
McGowens’s third-most common play type as a freshman was the pick-and-roll, which he ran on 22.9% of his plays. Between his passes and his shots, McGowens produced 0.761 PPP in the pick-and-roll. He kept it himself 55.7% of the time (0.673 PPP, 35th percentile) and found a teammate the other 44.3% (0.872 PPP, 35th percentile), though he was “average” either way.
He showed some improvement as a self-creator as a sophomore and his volume went up as well as pick-and-roll became his most common play type at 33.2%. He produced 0.841 PPP (54th percentile, “good”) between his passes and shots, and the split was nearly 50/50. He scored 0.773 PPP (60th percentile, “good”) and his passes led to 0.911 PPP (46th percentile, “average”).
As a passer both seasons, McGowens kicked the ball out to a teammate spotting up more than three times as often as he hit the roll man, so that is certainly one area in which he can improve.
As a sophomore, he expanded his game to include more pull-up jumpers and runners and was much beer in house areas than he was as a freshman.
As a freshman, McGowens didn’t score a single point in isolation as he hardly attempted to create on his own without a screen. Pittsburgh gave him the ball and let him go to work a bit more often as a sophomore, 11.8% of his possessions, scoring 0.741 PPP (47th percentile, “average”)
This data analysis breakdown details his freshman and sophomore seasons.
As a freshman, he averaged 11.6 points and 1.7 assists while producing 1.079 points per possession (PPP) between his buckets and assists (45th percentile nationally). Individually, McGowens scored 0.897 PPP, good for the 55th percentile (good).
As a sophomore, he put up 11.5 points and 3.6 assists, upping his distributing while taking a step back in his own efficiency. McGowens produced 1.066 PPP (46th percentile), though his assist-to-turnover ratio jumped from 0.7 to 1.2 and his assist rate increased from 11.4% to 18.6%.
It’s worth pointing out that Pittsburgh was one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country without a single player who made better than a third of his attempts. That isn’t exactly an ideal environment for a slashing, play-making guard.
As a freshman, McGowens’ most common play type was transition. He got out in the open floor on 32% of his plays, scoring 1.241 PPP while shooting 58.1% from the field and earning his way to the foul line 28.5% of the time. He led the break himself as the ball-handler nearly 60% of the time and scored 1.241 PPP (92nd percentile, “excellent”).
He didn’t get as many opportunities to run as a sophomore with 54 fewer possessions as transition only made up 16.9% of his total plays. His effectiveness dropped as well, down to 0.904 PPP. He shot less than 50% from the field and his foul rate dropped as well.
Former Husker commit Xavier Johnson had the ball in his hands quite a lot, so McGowens spent a lot of time spotting up.
As a freshman, 29.9% of his plays were spot-ups (which includes both jumpers and attacking off the catch). Of his 128 possessions, 52 were catch-and-shoot opportunities and he shot just 28.6%, scoring 0.962 PPP (39th percentile, average”). On nearly a quarter of his plays, he attacked the basket, shooting 9-of-24 and scoring 0.968 PPP (43rd percentile, “average”).
He shot 17-of-51 on catch-and-shoot opportunities and scored 1.0 PPP (49th percentile, “average”).
McGowens didn’t show much off-ball equity at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh also didn’t run him off screens or use him as a cutter very much at all.
McGowens shot 15-of-51 on catch-and-shoot looks as a freshman (0.902 PPP, 34th percentile, “average”) and 20-of-56 as a sophomore (10.071 PPP, 67th percentile, “very good”). The improvement as a sophomore is a good sign, especially on his unguarded looks which went from 0.944 PPP to 1.2PPP.
McGowens’s third-most common play type as a freshman was the pick-and-roll, which he ran on 22.9% of his plays. Between his passes and his shots, McGowens produced 0.761 PPP in the pick-and-roll. He kept it himself 55.7% of the time (0.673 PPP, 35th percentile) and found a teammate the other 44.3% (0.872 PPP, 35th percentile), though he was “average” either way.
He showed some improvement as a self-creator as a sophomore and his volume went up as well as pick-and-roll became his most common play type at 33.2%. He produced 0.841 PPP (54th percentile, “good”) between his passes and shots, and the split was nearly 50/50. He scored 0.773 PPP (60th percentile, “good”) and his passes led to 0.911 PPP (46th percentile, “average”).
As a passer both seasons, McGowens kicked the ball out to a teammate spotting up more than three times as often as he hit the roll man, so that is certainly one area in which he can improve.
As a sophomore, he expanded his game to include more pull-up jumpers and runners and was much beer in house areas than he was as a freshman.
As a freshman, McGowens didn’t score a single point in isolation as he hardly attempted to create on his own without a screen. Pittsburgh gave him the ball and let him go to work a bit more often as a sophomore, 11.8% of his possessions, scoring 0.741 PPP (47th percentile, “average”)
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As I, and others, have said, I think the McGowens transfer is going to work out best for everyone. I think Ithiel may fit a little better alongside X, and I think McGowens will benefit from a coach who runs a more pro-style system where he can play PG. And I do stand by my assertion that by the time they leave college, McGowens has the best shot at playing pro ball. Who knows. I think all the slamming of Trey now that he's transferred is unwarranted.
Agree to disagree. He certainly doesn't need me defending him, but IMO trolls just look to stir the pot. @BballinsiderfromPitt posts stuff that drives legitimate conversation. Sure a heck of a lot more quality posts from him than Vadar's absurd aggregation posts. But people love that stuff because it's "positive."
I agree. With the way Pitt plays and the personnel (No scoring bigs, inconsistent or low % shooters and a slashing and creative pg) on the team, a true shooting guard is the best fit.
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I think 10+ is a good and I put the plus in just in case he gets 1 or 2 or more per game.
IMHO I just think we may have a chance at having 3 to 4 players avg 10+ a game. With a lot more depth I think there's a few players that can avg 5 to 10 pts so we may not need Horton to be a big time scorer and yes I think its possible for him to lead us in pts but Justin or X probably will do so.
IMHO I just think we may have a chance at having 3 to 4 players avg 10+ a game. With a lot more depth I think there's a few players that can avg 5 to 10 pts so we may not need Horton to be a big time scorer and yes I think its possible for him to lead us in pts but Justin or X probably will do so.
He does? He doesn't even read thoroughly what I write word for word. No where did I say Horton would be all acc, be a 1st team ACC player or any all conference player, average 20 points per game, or any or this other non-sense he claims about me. Take full notice he never quotes any of my unedited posts. He even admitted he doesn't read my full posts.
I said I expect a balanced scoring attack next year with 4 players scoring over 10+ points per game and Ive repeatedly said and maintained that thought both inside and outside of this thread. I said I expect Horton to be 100+ ORTG and I think he achieves that easily.
Those are the only 2 things I said about Horton outside the fact I guaranteed he will light it up from 3, which he is going to because he made 140 three balls his last 2 seasons which is extremely high for anyone 18 years of age or younger and I used all Pitt players in the last 20 years along with the AAU stats from last summer. Horton is going to be a redshirt sophomore and he is still 19 years old right now. Did you know that? He is young which means he also has a far better chance for more rapid improvement and growth.
As far as Trey Mcgownens, the only stats I need are this. He had an ACC ORTG offensive power rating of 85, and EFG of 37%, with a turnover rate of 22%. He was by far the worst player on the entire team outside Gerald Drumgoole statistically in the ACC conference. His points per game and his field goal percentage also statistically crashed the last 10 games of the season. He was not arguably, but was the single biggest reason this team collapsed besides Ryan Murphy's concussion. You honestly think a 32% field goal percentage with 3.1 turnovers per game is good? Statistically with efficiency, Horton is going to be far better than Mcgowens for 2 sole reasons. Shooting the basketball from 3 and not turning the basketball over. If you don't understand that, than perhaps neither of you understand how efficiency is calculated.
Listen, you have the right to take a stab at me any way you want. You can't however twist things around of what I say without quoting me. If memory serves me, the two of you voicing your opinion on this matter were the same 2 people that used an All Star game to tell us how bad Justin Champagnie and the 2019 class was.
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He was a 37% FG shooter and 2.8 tos. At least get the stats right, which might be one reason people question your analytics.
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My stats are correct. That number was the last 10 games of the season. Manually calculate it if you dont trust me.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/4395670/trey-mcgowens
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Nor did you state it was from the last 10 games. I’ll stick with Synergy Sports Technology for my analytics of teams and players bc yours is definitely biased with emotional distress.
The 2019 class was very average. Murphy stunk and transferred. AKC hasn’t done anything. Drumgoole has been a bust so far and seems like he’ll transfer if all these people pass him.
Yes, Champagnie had a solid freshmen year, we’ll see how much he builds on that now that he’s been scouted for a year. By any stretch of the imagination, if he hit on 1/4 players in that class it’s average to below average. Pretty much 11th in the ACC where it ranked.
I don’t read your posts because I don’t read about sunshine and rainbows. It’s a waste of time. You selectively pick data from points of the season to prove a point instead of using an entire season. Why would I go through your 1074 paragraphs to read selective data?
"His points per game and his field goal percentage also statistically crashed the last 10 games of the season. He was not arguably, but was the single biggest reason this team collapsed besides Ryan Murphy's concussion. You honestly think a 32% field goal percentage with 3.1 turnovers per game is good?"
There is not any other way I could say that any more clear to you unless I reference the words "last 10 games" in every single sentence I typed. You even quoted it so clearly you misread it.
I think it's more likely than not that we'll see two things. I think we'll see Xavier have a pretty nice bounce-back year, and I think we'll even see him score more than he did as a freshman. Reason being: last year, he and Trey both scored 11-12 points per game, but they both got a lot of those points in the same fashion - getting to the hoop off the dribble. Without Trey, I think we'll see Xavier get the points that he got by attacking the basket, but I think we'll also see him collect a few of Trey's drives to the hoop, as well. Even if his jumper doesn't take a step forward, I think we'll still see him grab some of the points driving to the hoop that Trey got.
Then, I think we'll see Horton be better than Murphy in almost every area. Shooting, athleticism, getting to the hoop, ballhandling, defense, you name it and I think he's an upgrade there. Balance Horton being better than Murphy with him being a better fit alongside Xavier than Trey, and I think it's fair to think that Horton might have a ppg output right around Trey's 11.5 from last year. I also think Femi's going to be better than Murphy, with the potential exception of the shooting tool, but he might score a little less just because I don't think he's going to be playing 25 mpg.
So, I think if you look at the overall scoring last year, you saw Xavier with 11.7, Trey with 11.5, Murphy with 7.6, and Drumgoole with 1.2, for a total of 32 points per game out of the backcourt. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Xavier might score 15-17 (he scored 15.5 as a freshman), Horton score 10-12, and Femi score 3-5. Add in whatever more you can get out of Drumgoole this year versus his 1.2 last year (he *needs* to score more than 1.2 this year) and you'll automatically see a better offense just out of the backcourt.
Then, I think we'll see Horton be better than Murphy in almost every area. Shooting, athleticism, getting to the hoop, ballhandling, defense, you name it and I think he's an upgrade there. Balance Horton being better than Murphy with him being a better fit alongside Xavier than Trey, and I think it's fair to think that Horton might have a ppg output right around Trey's 11.5 from last year. I also think Femi's going to be better than Murphy, with the potential exception of the shooting tool, but he might score a little less just because I don't think he's going to be playing 25 mpg.
So, I think if you look at the overall scoring last year, you saw Xavier with 11.7, Trey with 11.5, Murphy with 7.6, and Drumgoole with 1.2, for a total of 32 points per game out of the backcourt. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Xavier might score 15-17 (he scored 15.5 as a freshman), Horton score 10-12, and Femi score 3-5. Add in whatever more you can get out of Drumgoole this year versus his 1.2 last year (he *needs* to score more than 1.2 this year) and you'll automatically see a better offense just out of the backcourt.
My issue is that you are very selective in your use of stats to make your point. You keep touting numbers from Horton's performance either A) in high school or B) in a vastly inferior league and then you selectively choose Trey's last 10 games. I hope Horton's great and I think he may balance the team better than Trey. But I don't put much stock in what he did two years ago. It's kinda like @gary2 looking at one single game for that terrible Michigan transfer and ignoring the other 10.
And I have repeatedly said my assessment of Penny based on the all star game was wrong.
ETA: I think any poster who drives discussion is a value add to the boards. But let's just be honest that your posts come with a huge, huge slant.
This is my final response to you and then Im no longer responding to you about anything.
You have said repeatedly how "great" Xavier Johnson was as a freshmen. But you don't like to separate non-conference from conference schedules which is what Ive done to show how poorly Mcgowens played in the ACC schedule "this" year, the meat and heart of the schedule where Mcgowens failed.
Mcgowens was poor in the 19 game ACC schedule this year after the conclusion to the season. He was even worse his last 10 games. I used both to make my point and I used the last 10 games where our team collapsed where Trey "fully" collapsed.
Any starter logging big minutes during a complete 19 game ACC schedule that has an ORTG of 85.7 during that 19 game schedule has substantial problems as a full time starter, which is Trey Mcgowens stats over a full 19 game ACC schedule this year. Again, Trey was bad in the ACC as the season continued, he was even worse his last 10 games from an efficiency standpoint.
I am using a full 19 game ACC schedule to show you his poor efficiency against ACC teams only.
Trey Mcgowens had the 2nd worst ORTG offensive power rating on the entire roster during the complete full 19 game ACC schedule at seasons end. Coulibaly was a 90.8, better than Trey and better than Aiden Igiehon, a Top 50 National recruit 4 star. Anthony Walker was also right there in that same ORTG range as Coulibaly, a player we recruited.
A concussed Ryan Murphy finished the full ACC 19 game season at 91.8 ORTG , far better than Trey at seasons end and Ryan played with a head concussion.
Pitt's non-conference schedule in 2019 was ranked 300th in the country. If you are using that type of schedule to make your argument of how great X was as a freshmen scorer where almost 1/3 of the games were against nobodies where he padded his stats against teams like North Alabama, then you have no ground to stand on when talking about Ithiel Horton's strong efficiency at Delaware where is ORTG was still far greater than X's and using the schedule against Horton.
There is a fine line difference which I have preached and Jeff Capel has preached, and that word is "consistency".
X has the same problems as Mcgowens, he is wildly inconsistent regardless of the competition. If you go back to that 2019 schedule, X had an ORTG under 90 against teams like Duquense and Niagara at home, a game X failed and a game where we lost.
There is zero cherry picking using ACC only stats. But it makes Trey Mcgowens look so bad you really don't want to go there because as the season continued through the ACC schedule he fully collapsed as a player and our team collapsed with him.
Agree--doubtful anyone would be upset with that--especially if team is winning more games than last season.
Here is another way to look at the Horton for McGowens "swap" by comparing their stats and then making adjustments for other factors (ACC vs CAA, 3-pt line closer for Horton, Avg Min played)--
McGowen's Shooting Stats (2019-20)
(1) Took 338 shots in 33 games = 10.24/game (Played 33.8/min/game)
(2) 83 for 206 on 2-pt shots = 40.3%
(3) 41 for 132 on 3-pt shots = 31.1%
(4) 91 for 126 on FTs = 72.2%
Horton's Delaware Stats (2018-19)
(1) Took 349 shots in 33 games = 10.58/game (Played 32.6/min/game)
(2) 72 for 156 on 2-pt shots = 46.2%
(3) 79 for 193 on 3-pt shots = 40.9%
(4) 55 for 70 on FTs = 78.62%
ADJUSTMENT FACTORS TO CONSIDER
(1) Three point line moved further out than when Horton last played.
(2) ACC vs CAA defenders.
(3) Horton played 1.3 minutes less per game than did McGowens.
(4) McGowens tendency to take it to the hoop vs Horton's to stay more on the perimeter and Horton's higher FT shooting percentage.
Discussion:
(1) Per a February 18, 2020 AP news article the average 3-point shooting percentage NCAA-wide (all players/all teams) had dropped from the prior season's (2018-19) average of 38.7% to 33.3% (-5.4%). However, the article had the caveat that the percentage had not dropped for individual elite shooters. At 40.9% shooting and from You-tube videos of Horton's play he appears to be an elite shooter usually hitting the 3-ball from well beyond the old closer-in line. So, it would seem his 3-ball shooting should not drop very much due to the line being moved out.
(2) ACC defenders should be be superior to most of the the defenders he faced playing for Delaware in the CAA. So, that should cause his 3-point percentage to drop. Horton's 2-pt percentage should also drop due to facing ACC defenders.
(3) Playing 1.3 minutes less than McGowens seems insignificant and not worth trying to consider as an adjustment given the uncertainty over how much of an adjustments to make due to the greater 3-point distance and the effect of ACC defenders.
(4) Horton's should get to the FT line less often than McGowens did--Less taking it to the rim.
Bottom Line:
(a) IMHO, a best guess is that Horton's 3-point percentage drops from 40.9% but probably to not lower than 35.5% worst case (conservatively calculated by taking the full national average drop of 5.4%). Any less of a drop is pure gravy.
(b) Horton's 2-point % should drop due to better ACC defenders. But, he will not suffer from McGowens' tendency to force things. So, a WAG is he drops from shooting 46.2% but not to McGowens' 40.3%--split the difference and guess he shoots about 43% on 2's.
(c) A decent guess on FTs is that Horton stays the same. Shoots fewer than McGowens but at the higher % since he is a better pure shooter than McGowens.
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
A WAG at predicted Horton Stats for 2020-21--
Horton's Potential Stats (2020-21)
(1) 340 shots in 33 games = 10.30/game
(2) 66 for 152 on 2-pt shots = 43.4%
(3) 67 for 188 on 3-pt shots = 35.6%
(4) 55 for 70 on FTs = 78.62%
This would amount to the following scoring totals--
132 points on 2-pt FGs
201 points on 3-pt FGs
55 points on FTs
Total = 388 points in 33 games = 11.76 points per game.
This is not far from McGowens 11.5 ppg but is more efficiently done and helps the team more by opening up the inside by pulling opponents out of zones and sagging defenses.
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Lol at thinking I’m reading that entire post.
You called me out for “never quoting your posts” then when I do you won’t respond any longer?
I couldn’t care less about Trey McGowens. Everyone here including myself have agreed he needed to leave: I’ve just been able to separate my feelings of that to realize he will have a solid 2 last years and that the slander on him is ridiculous. That’s the only thing that I care about. Saying that he had no work ethic or no heart is bush league bullshit by this board. Nothing else.
I’m talking about you cherry picking 10 games in Horton’s career as indictment of how he’ll fair in the ACC. Anyone with sense can realize how meaningless his stats are in CAA play with a shorter line to how he’ll do this year.
ACC Conference Only Stats for a complete 19 game ACC schedule including conference tournament.
ORTG offensive efficiency ranking
Hamilton-109.5
Brown-107
Champ-105.1
Toney-103
Murphy-91.8
Johnson-91.4
Coulibaly-90.8
Mcgowens-85.7
Drumgoole- 59.7
To fully understand just how bad Mcgowens and Drumgoole were during our complete 19 game ACC conference schedule.
Mcgowens finished 124th out of all 137 total ACC rotation players in efficiency in ACC conference only games. Drumgoole finished 135th out of 137 players.
Mcgowens was the worst full time starter over a 80% min. distribution rate statistically using ACC only games in the entire ACC Conference. Mcgowens was 124th in TS% with the 3rd highest TO rate for all starters in the entire league. The word "bad" for Trey Mcgowens and how he performed in the ACC doesn't do it enough justice.
ORTG offensive efficiency ranking
Hamilton-109.5
Brown-107
Champ-105.1
Toney-103
Murphy-91.8
Johnson-91.4
Coulibaly-90.8
Mcgowens-85.7
Drumgoole- 59.7
To fully understand just how bad Mcgowens and Drumgoole were during our complete 19 game ACC conference schedule.
Mcgowens finished 124th out of all 137 total ACC rotation players in efficiency in ACC conference only games. Drumgoole finished 135th out of 137 players.
Mcgowens was the worst full time starter over a 80% min. distribution rate statistically using ACC only games in the entire ACC Conference. Mcgowens was 124th in TS% with the 3rd highest TO rate for all starters in the entire league. The word "bad" for Trey Mcgowens and how he performed in the ACC doesn't do it enough justice.
I’m glad Trey is gone so you can focus your time on your family. Lol. Do you realize your ORTG slants on Trey only take into account his FG,3pt, and Ft percentage right? It doesn’t take into account defensive production, assists,etc. SYNERGY is the name of the objective stat analyzer, not subjective VADER.
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It wasn't just his ORTG. His turnover rate was bad and I showed it to you along with all his shooting percentages. Trey Mcgowens was worst on our entire team in + / - for the entire season. He finished at (-61) for the year, which puts him near the bottom of the entire ACC league for the whole season. Trey MCgowens had the worst OR rebound rate on the entire Pitt team. He had the 7th best DR rebound rate on the Pitt team.
Mcgowens + / - number was worse than every other player on the entire North Carolina and Wake Forest rosters, the 2 worst teams in the league besides us.
Having an ORTG at 85 is bad enough. His turnover rates, poor shooting percentages, and the worst + /- on the entire Pitt roster further magnifies it.
If you want to argue against all those metrics be my guest. But Trey Mcgowens is off the team and I am stepping away from talking about him any more.
Thank you. Rebounding rates? You should have posted ALL of his team rates/rankings instead of being selective.Bye Vader, it’s been fun. I look forward to your ORTG stats next year too and the years after.
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For the record I do wish Trey Mcgowens good luck with his new team. He should get plenty of playing time joining his new team that finished this season on a 17 game losing streak this year. He should get plenty of playing time without much challenge.
I also greatly look forward to watching Horton. In 2 years Mcgowens helped Pitt win 9 total regular season ACC games. I am grateful for his contributions and watching him play here to help turn Pitt around. But I echo our head Coach in Jeff Capel and his comments with Horton as I do think next year we have a very strong chance at winning over 9 ACC games and taking the program up a level without Mcgowens.
