Vader Recruiting: Top returning talent in the ACC and Next Years Team

Discussion in 'Basketball Board' started by Vader_Storm, May 24, 2020 at 1:24 AM.

  1. Vader_Storm

    Vader_Storm Walk-on
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    Capel's first 2 recruiting classes vs the rest of the ACC Conference.



    Here are The Top 20 ACC underclassmen starters or rotation players returning next year based off offensive efficiency power rating. (Player must play at least 15 minutes a game to qualify and be a regular rotation player the entire season)


    Player / ORTG Offensive Efficiency Power Rating / high school recruiting ranking


    1) Radford-Virginia Tech- 125.9 (0 Star, outside Top 500 Nationally)

    2) Hurt-Duke-122.3 (5 Star, #12 Nationally)

    3) Bates-NC State-121.6 (4 Star, 104 Nationally)

    4) Osborn-Florida State-114.9 (0 Star, outside Top 500 Nationally)

    5) Goodwin-Notre Dame-111.1 4 Star, 100 Nationally)

    6) Cattoor-Virginia Tech-110.4 (3 Star, 511th Nationally)

    7) Toney-Pitt-109 (4 Star, 111th Nationally)

    8) Champ-Pitt-108 (3 Star, 248th Nationally)


    9) Laszewski-Notre Dame-107.5 (4 Star, 65th Nationally)

    10) Boeheim-Syracuse-106.7 (3 Star, 349th Nationally)

    11) Cone-Virginia Tech 104.9 (4 Star, 102 Nationally)

    12) Newman-Clemson 104.1 (3 Star, 164th Nationally)

    13) Polite-Florida State 103.8 (3 Star, 180 Nationally)

    14) Girard-Syracuse 103.2 (3 Star, 202 Nationally)

    15) Devoe-Georgia Tech 102.6 (4 Star, 51st Nationally)

    16) Alleyne-Virginia Tech 102.2 (3 Star, 412th Nationally)

    17) Hellems-NC State 101.4(3 Star, 141st Nationally)

    18) Bacot-North Carolina 101.4 (5 Star, 27th Nationally)

    19) Guerrier-Syracuse 100.7 (4 Star, 121st Nationally)

    20) Hubb-Notre Dame 99.6 (4 Star, 87th Nationally)

    26th) Xavier Johnson 93 (3 star, 232nd Nationally)

    28th) Trey Mcgowens-91.6




    Of the Top 20 overall returning underclassmen in the ACC as freshmen or sophomores above by high school Star Ranking:

    5 Stars (returning)-2

    4 Star (returning)-8

    3 Star (returning)-8

    0 Star (returning)-2


    Of the Top 20 overall returning underclassman in the ACC as freshmen or sophomores,


    The number of Top 100 players from high school rankings in the Top 20 acc players above-6 of 20

    The number of Top 150 Players from high school rankings in the Top 20 above-12 of 20

    The number of Total players in the Top 10 returning players ranked outside the Top 100 high school ranking above-7 of 10


    Number of Teams with at least 2 Top 10 returning underclassmen in the whole conference: Pitt and Virginia Tech


    What does this data show?


    First of all it shows the recruiting rankings were pretty far off the last 2 years just looking at the Top 10 players returning in the ACC. 3 of the Top 6 players returning in the entire ACC for all underclassmen were not ranked in the National Top 500. 2 of those players were 0 stars not ranked in the Top 500.


    Tyrese Radford had the best overall offensive rating in the entire ACC regardless of class. He was a 21 year old unranked redshirt freshmen this year and was a huge part to Virginia Tech’s success.


    Justin Champagnie was the youngest player ranked in the Top 20 as an 18 year old freshmen. Pitt has 2 players in the Top 10 and 3 in the Top 26 for all underclassmen in the entire acc. Those numbers for Jeff Capel in his first 2 recruiting seasons are very strong and is a good young base of talent to build on with respect to the rest of the league.


    It also highlights that Champ and Toney are really strong and efficient basketball players on offense when looking at the entire ACC for all underclassmen freshmen or sophomore. They both should be expected to have very strong seasons next year. Both of them should easily be in the Top 4 of our teams scoring next year and I expect both of them to be near the Top of the entire ACC next year in offensive efficiency.


    Toney and Champ were statistically by far the best players on our basketball team the back stretch of this past season followed by X. The 2 of them averaged 27 points per game the last 10 games of this season for Pitt and I think it is very likely both average between 11 and 15 points per game next year.


    Where does that leave Xavier Johnson? A lot of room for improvement for starters to meet his expectations. X would be considered average at best as the season finished last season. In 2 year’s time he has not broken the 100 ORTG offensive power rating barrier because his shooting percentages and turnover numbers are far too poor. Former Players like Gibbs, Woodall, Fields, James Robinson etc.. had Top 100+ ORTG’s with ease throughout their careers. Taking the basketball out of X’s hands while lowering his usage rate and playing time should help him next year to be more efficient to help both himself and the team. Horton should help him the most by opening the driving lanes with his shooting.


    Playing in limited possession games like we played last year as the 308th slowest team in the country in game tempo, we simply cannot afford 6.5 turnovers per game coming from 2 players again like X and Mcgowens combined this year. Pitt should pick up just under 2 possessions per game just by replacing Horton with Mcgowens and getting rid of Mcgowens high turnover numbers and turnover rate. Simply, we can’t be one of the slowest teams in the entire country again with X turning the basketball over 3.5 times per game. He has to be much better.


    X getting his turnovers down to 2.5 or at least 3 per game would also be a significant help. X should rebound next year. He has a good attitude and is coach-able and a hard worker. A good goal for X is to keep his scoring around the same this year, average 6-7 assists per game with 2.5 turnovers per game. I think X should be the 4th scoring option on offense next year behind Champ, Toney, and Horton scoring. If X averaged 11.7ppg, 6.5 apg, 2.5 turnover per game, and shot 44% from the field, those would be numbers very equivalent to Tray Woodall as a junior. Those numbers would give him an ORTG offensive rating of roughly 110, about the same as Tray Woodall as a junior. Those numbers, to go with Toney and Champ, would form a very strong trio nucleus to build around and make us very formidable.




    It should also be noted that the Top scorer in the entire ACC last year was Elijah Hughes. For those that do not know, Hughes originally committed and went to East Carolina as a 3 Star Number 200 overall recruit in the country. Hughes was from Beacon New York, a state Jeff Capel continues to heavily prioritize in recruiting and a state that is generally underrated in recruiting. Hughes declared for the draft as a redshirt junior.



    Here is the 3 point shooting percentages of Pitt’s incoming recruiting class including Horton


    Horton-41% Delaware

    Hugley-41%

    Odukale-39%

    Jeffress- 37.5%


    In my opinion, the talent level on next years team is going to be severely upgraded and the shooting on next years team is going to be far better. In my opinion, every position next year is going to be upgraded including the depth which is going to be the biggest upgrade (Gerald Drumgoole was statistically speaking quite arguably the worst player in the entire ACC conference and the worst freshmen in the last 20 seasons at Pitt injury aside) .


    Generally speaking I don’t make many predictions. But at this junction I think it is likely, with the major influx of talent coming in with Horton, this team will make a major push for 20+ wins next year and 10 ACC wins. I also think that Ithiel Horton is going to be a major and I mean major upgrade shooting the basketball. Exciting times and good days are ahead.
     
    1 Vader_Storm, May 24, 2020 at 1:24 AM
    Last edited: May 24, 2020 at 1:31 AM
  2. DC_Area_Panther

    DC_Area_Panther Head Coach
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    IMHO, agree the team will "push for" 10+ ACC wins and 20+ ACC wins. However, I expect it to fall a little short at 8-9 ACC wins and 17-19 overall wins--at least prior to ACC Tourney play.

    Regarding some other specifics you cover:

    "First of all it shows the recruiting rankings were pretty far off the last 2 years just looking at the Top 10 players returning in the ACC. 3 of the Top 6 players returning in the entire ACC for all underclassmen were not ranked in the National Top 500. 2 of those players were 0 stars not ranked in the Top 500."

    IMHO, this argument isn't entirely wrong--but it doesn't account for any of the past two recruiting classes' one-and-done players.

    "Playing in limited possession games like we played last year as the 308th slowest team in the country in game tempo, we simply cannot afford 6.5 turnovers per game coming from 2 players again like X and Mcgowens combined this year. Pitt should pick up just under 2 possessions per game just by replacing Horton with Mcgowens and getting rid of Mcgowens high turnover numbers and turnover rate. Simply, we can’t be one of the slowest teams in the entire country again with X turning the basketball over 3.5 times per game. He has to be much better."

    IMHO, Capel will be playing a faster pace this year now that he has more talent and depth. A lower Johnson turnover rate will result from both Horton's ability to spread the defense and more inside talent capable of scoring more efficiently near and at the hoop.

    "Here is the 3 point shooting percentages of Pitt’s incoming recruiting class including Horton

    Horton-41% Delaware
    Hugley-41%
    Odukale-39%
    Jeffress- 37.5%

    In my opinion, the talent level on next years team is going to be severely upgraded and the shooting on next years team is going to be far better"

    While I agree that shooting (especially 3-ball shooting) will likley be improved, the percentages you cite from past college (Horton) and high school (the others) won't be what we see, IMHO. The percentage numbers will be lower in part due to those numbers being made vs a closer in 3-point line and in part due to the players facing much better defenders--especially the freshmen--in ACC play.
     
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  3. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    Lol. Again, can we temper expectations on newcomers? Let’s wait til they play a single ACC minute before we start touting them. Also, not one of those 3 point percentages you posted for Hugley, Jeffress, Horton or Odukale matter.. they weren’t from the current NCAA line or against ACC competition.

    We need to start looking at these guys and talent amongst their peers not in a vacuum vs last years team.
     
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  4. Vader_Storm

    Vader_Storm Walk-on
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    3 point shooting percentages carry a lot more weight at the high school level and aau level than you might think. Obviously the percentages are going to fall some when these players are underclassmen, but they shouldn't fall all "that" much. There have been 2 exceptions of this in the last 13 recruiting classes that came into Pitt. Gerald Drumgoole and JJ Moore as I pointed out previously.

    Moore was a pure volume shooter that was barely a 35% shooter in high school. Everyone else's 3 point shooting was fairly as expected besides Drumgoole. I will be somewhat stunned if Drumgoole isn't at least 30+% next year from 3 with his healed prior injured foot. Foot injuries can be tricky without healing properly.

    Here are the 3 point shooters from last season in comparison to the new guys replacing them in the rotation.

    Murphy-33% (was much better prior to his concussion)
    Mcgowens-31%
    Drumgoole-12%
    Brown-0%
    Hamilton-0%

    I'm going to say 2 things in regards to this. The 3 point shooting on last years team was nothing short of a complete embarrassment. Those numbers above are putrid across the board. Pitt finished 330th in the country last year in 3 point shooting percentage and 320th in made 3 point shots per game. Hence, we saw packed in zones every game clogging the interior hurting X the most.

    I can say with 150% full confidence right now, just with Ithiel Horton, those last 2 numbers are going to go substantially up. I will also say with full confidence those numbers will be improved across the board player by player year over year. There is no way Pitt is going to have any player play wing next year and shoot 12% from 3 like Gerald Drumgoole just did. The depth on next years team will be far superior to this past years team.
     
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  5. Tonyt66

    Tonyt66 Freshman
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    IMHO people can always poke at Vader's post but I thank him for not stopping his post because I just like and enjoy reading some info on Pitt Bball instead of reading about old movies and Everything else on here that has nothing to do about Pitt on a Bball board. You don't have agree with everything he writes but man can we respect and appreciate the fact that he puts some good time in getting some info. I know with all the big Egos on here with guys that have to pick apart everyone's opinion that doesn't line up with their own just remember it's not about you it's a opinion board @Drew1208 reminded me of that when I first got on this board and I always appreciated that because sometimes we take things personal and it's not about getting personal its just talk about Pitt Bball.
     
  6. Drew1208

    Drew1208 Sophomore
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    I like everyone's posts except a rare few insufferable ones. SMF, BBinsider, Vader, they all are entertaining. Im here to for info and entertainment. Thanks for the shout out. I don't remember that but, i believe it.
     
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  7. McCool

    McCool Redshirt
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    Nice write up Vader. Keep it coming. htp.
     
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  8. BPKY

    BPKY Head Coach
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    I wonder if COVID will have any effect on 3 point shooting. It's been a while, but were I stuck at home alone as a kid I'd probably just be shooting thousands of threes each day.

    I also expect this team to start off slow and then really pick it up at the end of the season once the new players get their sea legs at the college level.
     
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  9. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    If it does, it will have the same effect on every other team. We can’t possibly use COVID as an excuse if we have a similar season.
     
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  10. ameoba defense

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    You put a lot of work into this Vader! Kudos, keep it up!!
     
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  11. 73CAV

    73CAV Redshirt
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    Excellent work assembling this data. It is very interesting. However, I do see some other implications worth noting. You probably thought they were so obvious, you didn't mention them. But...
    Of the five teams with winning conference records, Louisville and Virginia have no underclassmen on your list. Duke and Georgia Tech each have one. Only Florida State has multiple entries, and I imagine that has more to do with how Coach Hamilton utilizes his roster. He substitutes more freely, and plays deeper into the bench, than anyone else, if I am not mistaken.
    The Duke, Notre Dame, and GT players on the list would be expected to be there. For the most part, they were Top 100 recruits.
    What jumps out most to me are that VT and Pitt are both rebuilding rosters. The opportunities for underclassmen are there because there is little competition from older players. Meanwhile, the established programs are dominated by upperclassmen (or, OADs), giving few underclassmen (who would be returning) the opportunity to play that 15 mpg. It might be a bit illuminating to see a Top 50 list of all conference players, earning that 15 mpg, and how the returning 20 underclassmen compare.
     
    11 73CAV, May 24, 2020 at 2:25 PM
    Last edited: May 24, 2020 at 3:41 PM
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  12. PittAU

    PittAU Freshman
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    A competent interior game will help our guards cut down on their turnovers.
     
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  13. Vader_Storm

    Vader_Storm Walk-on
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    If you use all returning players in the entire conference including juniors that are soon to be seniors, our guys would look like this

    14) Toney
    16) Champ
    28) Brown (104 ortg)
    52) Johnson

    Coulibaly-89
    Drumgoole-61

    As I explained previously, it takes around 8 players on a team with a 100+ ORTG offensive Rating to be an NCAA Tournament caliber team unless you have a dominant defense. We currently have 3 on paper returning from the ACC. Ithiel Horton was a 108 ORTG as a true freshmen at Delaware and will be a lock next year for a 100+ rating. Johnson was a 98 ORTG as a freshmen but Johnson slumped as a sophomore. Johnson "should" break 100+ next year which would give us 5 players needed out of 8.

    The NBA is taking 2 of the Florida State underclassmen that would have made the list if they returned. The same with Duke and the NBA. Virginia's underclassmen players simply were not good enough to make it. Virginia had the 234th best offense in the country and Georgia Tech was 171st, both teams got it done with defense this past year. Louisville had 2 players that were close to making it.

    As a simple benchmark tool.

    Total players in the ACC with:

    110+ rating- 14
    100+ rating-38
    90+ rating-57


    This was obviously a down year for the conference. However, it shows where are guys are rated by how they played on the court. It also shows that it is extremely difficult to win in the ACC with next to zero upperclassmen producing on your basketball team unless your name is Duke. We should be in much better shape with more experience with X and Toney being upperclassmen team leaders next year.
     
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  14. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    I cannot wait to see this Horton kid play because if he is anything short of Ray Allen combined with Michael Jordan Capel and Vader will have oversold him. Always undersell overdeliver.

    My guess is he’ll struggle like 95 percent of kids who transfer up and have ups and downs all season and average 8 PPG.
     
  15. DT_PITT

    DT_PITT Lair Hall of Famer
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    I generally agree with your thought but expect 10 ppg.
     
  16. joeydavid

    joeydavid Heisman Winner
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    Good shooter and a better fit than Trey (skillset) is all I'm expecting.

    Horton's quick and compact stroke should carry well into the ACC. It shouldn't be suprising if he's a bit rusty at start the year.
     
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  17. DT_PITT

    DT_PITT Lair Hall of Famer
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    Indeed.
     
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  18. Tonyt66

    Tonyt66 Freshman
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    I would typically agree with that but the only thing that may help him is that he went against good defense in practice all year so that should help him in getting started this year IMO. I see 10+ points a game and I think he will be one of the top 3 scores on the team and I'm leaning towards him being the top scorer for Pitt and that's because he has a handle and get his own shot.
     
  19. Ski11585

    Ski11585 Athletic Director
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    I was thinking that we should be thrilled if he could produce similar to Cook.
     
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  20. DC_Area_Panther

    DC_Area_Panther Head Coach
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  21. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    Cook averaged 15 in a better conference than Horton and averaged 10 at Pitt. Obviously he became more efficient and those teams were much better so he wasn’t relied upon as much but 8-10 points when you averaged 13 at delaware is pretty much in the transfer up wheelhouse.
     
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  22. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    We were good on defense last year?

    The thing people need to remember about comments about practice is when you’re dealing with guys who are purely practice players for the year that IS their game... and when the coaches watch, they remember the great plays and forget the monumental f*ckups when u were trying to make a play and wave it off as trying to make a play.

    The line is further back than it was at delaware and he will be going against longer more athletic players. He might fit better and he might be great, but let’s see him shoot one shot in a Pitt uniform before we crown him.

    If he’s taking the most shots and is our top scorer we have major problems. He should be behind XJ/Champ and maybe Toney in scoring.
     
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  23. joeydavid

    joeydavid Heisman Winner
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    Cook took 50% more shots as a sophomore than Horton did as freshman. Horton shot a higher percentage as well especially from deep.

    The basic math would indicate at best wash if comparing the two.
     
  24. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    Correct, which is why I put him at the 8-10 wheelhouse.

    Cook’s competition was much, much better.
     
  25. joeydavid

    joeydavid Heisman Winner
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    Anything over 10 ppg is a bonus. If he can spread the floor better and not turn it over as much as Trey - that's an upgrade.
     
  26. below0w

    below0w Redshirt
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    48.29%

    That was Trey's TS% from last year, which is abominable. If Horton can get into the 53-55 range, which is by no means an unrealistic expectation given that he was at 57.40% as a true freshman, I'll be completely satisfied. Anything more and I'll be over the moon.
     
  27. TheSpecialSauce

    TheSpecialSauce Sophomore
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    I long for the days in which winning and making your teammates better was more important than padding individual stats. The only stat that matters is W’s or L’s. Hopefully Horton makes us a better overall team.
     
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  28. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    Well I think that’s why the mike cook comparison is apt. I’m speaking purely production.

    They play nothing alike but let’s hope he’s just a more efficient version of his delaware self like Mike was in his 1.5 years for Pitt. He undoubtedly made those two teams better and made himself better in those 2 years.
     
  29. TheSpecialSauce

    TheSpecialSauce Sophomore
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    Cook was very underrated. It sucks that he got injured at MSG.
     
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  30. rockypanther

    rockypanther Assistant Coach
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    Data shows clearly there is a much higher odds based on if your shoot off the dribble, how many dribbles you take before a shot, is the shot right off a pass, is the pass the result of a kick out from a drive, how quick or slow defender recovers, and how close the defender is to closing out on the shooter.

    At Deleware and in high school players are much more likely to have games where the other teams talent is much more inferior than playing in the ACC so the shot attempts will be much more difficult.

    So we cannot make any accurate individual projections from one level to another. Example is Drumgoole. He was left wide open a lot more because his high school was loaded. Shot much much better than at Pitt where he shot poorly. Because everything was different on the court for him as an ACC player than high school. And there is virtually no defense in AAU and everything is zone and drive and kick so AAU can't be used accurately.
     
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  31. rockypanther

    rockypanther Assistant Coach
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    Thank you though Vadar. I appreciate all of you work. That must take you a ton of time.
     
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  32. Tonyt66

    Tonyt66 Freshman
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    So your saying forget what X and JC said about how good he was but I bet any money that he was taking Trey to school who was one of the better defenders in the ACC. That's the reason JC made the commit if you guys can stop him you guys can stop or slow down anybody and in connecting the dots that's probably one of the reasons Trey's not here because game recognizes game. Now like you said practices is just practice but iron sharpens iron when you play against each other.
     
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  33. below0w

    below0w Redshirt
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    I agree with your general point, but Drumgoole is a poor example. It's clear that conditioning was his biggest issue last year. Undoubtedly, there's a big step up from high school to college, but it's not like Drumgoole was asked to play a bigger role in college - he averaged less than 9 mpg. He also seemed to get open often enough as a spot up shooter late in the year, but he just didn't have the athleticism to do anything else. He looked a hell of a lot better physically before he got injured so I think we really need to place a moratorium on evaluating him before he's had a healthy offseason to get back in shape.
     
  34. DT_PITT

    DT_PITT Lair Hall of Famer
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    If he started in the exhibition season, you'd HAVE to figure that he looked better in September and October. To me, he looked like he never regained any confidence after the injury.
     
  35. Vader_Storm

    Vader_Storm Walk-on
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    You have clearly contradicted yourself. You have cited Mike Cook's "improved" play at Pitt. Do you know why Mike Cook's numbers and efficiency really improved? Mike Cooks usage rate went way down from ECU to when he ended up at Pitt, his shot attempts went down, his minutes per game went down, and the ball was taken "out" of his hands because of Levance Fields running the team as Cook was no longer getting any time at point guard like at ECU.

    All of the reasons I keep saying X's minutes, usage rate, and shot attempts should go down just like Mike Cook to cut his turnovers down and increase his and the teams efficiency including increasing his shooting percentages which are poor. The best thing for Mike Cook was putting him in a structured more limited role without him dominating the basketball and dominating possession with his usage rate.


    Mike Cook had usage rates over 26+% at ECU. At the end of this season Xavier Johnson put up 17 turnovers the last 3 games of the season this year. The ball needs to be taken out of his hands and his usage rate must go down. We can't have a point guard putting up over 6 turnovers per game over any 3 game stretch moving forward.


    Most players at the high school level cannot consistently shoot at a "high" level. Going back the last 20 years of every player that came into the Pitt program, the list for how many made "60+" 3 pointers in a single high school season including playoffs is short. Those players consist of Ron Ramon at All Hallows, Ashton Gibbs at Seton Hall Prep, and Ithiel Horton. Thats your list because it is hard. Most guys in AAU can't shoot 40% either from 3. Here is your list from last year, the 40% + club is very short.

    [​IMG]



    Ithiel Horton has made 140 three balls his last 2 years of play. There isnt another recruit that has come to Pitt that is anywhere close to that number shooting and making the 3 ball over a 2 year window any time recently. Go back the last 20 seasons of any Pitt recruit and look it up. The only other player that was close was Darnell Dodson and he didnt qualify. As I mentioned, the only 2 guys who did it were Gibbs and Ramon.

    I think Horton is going to light it up this year on offense to be honest. He likely is going to have his own share of adjustments and difficulty adjusting on the defensive side of the ball. But offensively for how he shoots and how deep he makes shots, he imo is going to put substantial points on the board. How many is TBD, but a concussed Ryan Murphy who played 24 minutes per game averaged 8 points per game with an ORTG of 96. Ryan Murphy quit the team because of Horton and his playing time going down. And so did Mcgowens.

    Lastly on Horton. Do you know who else recruited Ithiel Horton in high school at Roselle Catholic? Ben Howland from Mississippi State. Musselman and Howland both failed to pull him south.
     
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  36. rockypanther

    rockypanther Assistant Coach
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    There are many examples but that was the most recent. Hopefully his shooting comes back once he gets in shape.
     
  37. BballinsiderfromPitt

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    You can’t possibly think I’m gonna read all that drivel.

    I said I hope Horton is like Mike Cook in that he’s extremely efficient and good for the team. Not sure where you’re getting anything else.

    I’m not gonna read his stats again from a shorter line against the UNC Wilmington’s and Northeastern’s of the world. It’s beyond meaningless.
     
  38. 4Mark_Marty

    4Mark_Marty Senior
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    if he shoots 35-38% With volume, we will be happy.
    Ask Jordan if practice matters
     
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  39. 4Mark_Marty

    4Mark_Marty Senior
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    Goole missed mostly wide open jumpers last year
     
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  40. DT_PITT

    DT_PITT Lair Hall of Famer
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    Yeah -- I'd be thrilled with 35-38% perfect with volume.
     
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