A misunderstanding of covid?

[steelcurtain55.]

So my brother is biochemical engineer for the past 15 years and has developed vaccines for Pfizer and now Roche. He's a pretty smart cookie. While I was partying, he was getting his PhD @ 26 years of age.

So...

We have had dozens of conversations on covid over the past few months.

Last night he made a point that seems to be gaining traction in the science community.

He said, you can brag about every form of intervention and prevention known to science in terms of how to handle covid. But, covid's ultimate initial impact will boil down to 2 things - population fitness and previous intense upper respiratory (cold/flu) seasons. He said he believes this is the denominator that the media does not focus upon. I asked him if the United States handled it's outbreak like Germany or other "successful" countries would things be drastically different? He answered it like this -

1. If you have an old population with various comorbidity that population is going to get hit the hardest - we know that.

2. If you have a population with high comorbidity your going to get hit hard again - we know this.

3. If you have had previous severe cold/flu seasons, you will not get hit as hard - we are beginning to understand this.

He said no country/region is ready to handle a massive pandemic with poor susceptible populations. They will have casualties.

He said it's no coincidence that the countries, states, regions that have handled this pandemic the best who report honest #'s are the ones who've been dealt the best cards and not the intervention/prevention tactics. Countries/regions that have handled this the best have been broken down to having natural isolation (new zealand/australia), previous harsh flu/cold seasons (E. Europe), and younger, healthier populations (aka fitness).

He sent me me a short clip this morning on the topic

 

[lilspainishflea]

Sounds like a lot of rationalization and excuse making.

And all you need to do to prove the "deck was rigged!!!" argument false is compare Norway and Sweden. Literally right next to each other and share a border. Population age is basically the same (39 vs 41). Same climate. Same exposure to flu. Extremely similar genetic and lifestyle profiles. Yet Sweden has almost 10x as many COVID cases and 22x as many COVID deaths (Sweden only has 2x as many people). Why do you think that is?

There are a lot of factors in beating COVID. As with life, some of them are the result of chance but many are not. The one thing that the worst performing countries have in common is leadership that doesn't want to deal with the problem.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

Sounds like a lot of rationalization and excuse making.

And all you need to do to prove the "deck was rigged!!!" argument false is compare Norway and Sweden. Literally right next to each other and share a border. Population age is basically the same (39 vs 41). Same climate. Same exposure to flu. Extremely similar genetic and lifestyle profiles. Yet Sweden has almost 10x as many COVID cases and 22x as many COVID deaths (Sweden only has 2x as many people). Why do you think that is?

There are a lot of factors in beating COVID. As with life, some of them are the result of chance but many are not. The one thing that the worst performing countries have in common is leadership that doesn't want to deal with the problem.

Cases, cases, cases.... of course Sweden has more cases. That was the goal. Hence, they didn't lockdown. Sweden also has 3x more immigrants than Norway or Finland. Sweden is the most liberal country in taking in refugees. This population has disproportionately skewed the # of cases and poor outcomes. This isn't opinion but fact.

OUTCOMES
FITNESS/PREVIOUS FLU/COVID SEASON SEVERITY
​

That is the equation that is the question at hand. We know that those with better fitness handle covid much better and have better outcomes. We also are beginning to see through epidemiological studies that countries/regions that have severe flu/cold seasons in recent successive years appear to have built up strong T-CELL responses and present asymptomatic less severe cases of Covid-19.

Intervention is the bigger question at hand. Does lockdown have as much impact as fitness and previous cold flu season exposure? When looking at England vs. Sweden - it doesn't. The one thing we know for sure -

Isolate the susceptible populations. How much did we know in Feb/March about this? It appears we didn't know diddly. Or, if we did the state gov'ts have plenty of blood on their hands. If you can't swim, don't jump in the pool. If you're at risk, isolate.

​

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Sounds like a lot of rationalization and excuse making.

And all you need to do to prove the "deck was rigged!!!" argument false is compare Norway and Sweden. Literally right next to each other and share a border. Population age is basically the same (39 vs 41). Same climate. Same exposure to flu. Extremely similar genetic and lifestyle profiles. Yet Sweden has almost 10x as many COVID cases and 22x as many COVID deaths (Sweden only has 2x as many people). Why do you think that is?

There are a lot of factors in beating COVID. As with life, some of them are the result of chance but many are not. The one thing that the worst performing countries have in common is leadership that doesn't want to deal with the problem.

Yep
The us is struggling because there has been no national strategy or leadership
In fact - the administration has actively worked against and discredited public health experts

because they are incompetent

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Cases, cases, cases.... of course Sweden has more cases. That was the goal. Hence, they didn't lockdown. Sweden also has 3x more immigrants than Norway or Finland. Sweden is the most liberal country in taking in refugees. This population has disproportionately skewed the # of cases and poor outcomes. This isn't opinion but fact.

OUTCOMES
FITNESS/PREVIOUS FLU/COVID SEASON SEVERITY
​

That is the equation that is the question at hand. We know that those with better fitness handle covid much better and have better outcomes. We also are beginning to see through epidemiological studies that countries/regions that have severe flu/cold seasons in recent successive years appear to have built up strong T-CELL responses and present asymptomatic less severe cases of Covid-19.

Intervention is the bigger question at hand. Does lockdown have as much impact as fitness and previous cold flu season exposure? When looking at England vs. Sweden - it doesn't. The one thing we know for sure -

Isolate the susceptible populations. How much did we know in Feb/March about this? It appears we didn't know diddly. Or, if we did the state gov'ts have plenty of blood on their hands. If you can't swim, don't jump in the pool. If you're at risk, isolate.

​

Sweden’s per capita mortality rate show their strategy was dumb

 

[pierre93]

Sounds like a lot of rationalization and excuse making.

And all you need to do to prove the "deck was rigged!!!" argument false is compare Norway and Sweden. Literally right next to each other and share a border. Population age is basically the same (39 vs 41). Same climate. Same exposure to flu. Extremely similar genetic and lifestyle profiles. Yet Sweden has almost 10x as many COVID cases and 22x as many COVID deaths (Sweden only has 2x as many people). Why do you think that is?

There are a lot of factors in beating COVID. As with life, some of them are the result of chance but many are not. The one thing that the worst performing countries have in common is leadership that doesn't want to deal with the problem.

Leadership is an extremely key word!

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

I mean we have our supreme leader out there saying "if we wouldn't test so much, there wouldn't be so many cases". I think he said this as late as yesterday.

Come on man. That's the equivalent of the ostrich burying his head in the ground as a lion comes attacking.

I don't care what your political persuasion is, your president can't be saying stuff like that at times like these.

 

[lilspainishflea]

Cases, cases, cases.... of course Sweden has more cases. That was the goal. Hence, they didn't lockdown. Sweden also has 3x more immigrants than Norway or Finland. Sweden is the most liberal country in taking in refugees. This population has disproportionately skewed the # of cases and poor outcomes. This isn't opinion but fact.

OUTCOMES
FITNESS/PREVIOUS FLU/COVID SEASON SEVERITY
​

That is the equation that is the question at hand. We know that those with better fitness handle covid much better and have better outcomes. We also are beginning to see through epidemiological studies that countries/regions that have severe flu/cold seasons in recent successive years appear to have built up strong T-CELL responses and present asymptomatic less severe cases of Covid-19.

Intervention is the bigger question at hand. Does lockdown have as much impact as fitness and previous cold flu season exposure? When looking at England vs. Sweden - it doesn't. The one thing we know for sure -

Isolate the susceptible populations. How much did we know in Feb/March about this? It appears we didn't know diddly. Or, if we did the state gov'ts have plenty of blood on their hands. If you can't swim, don't jump in the pool. If you're at risk, isolate.

​

This post is a grab-bag of nonsense, blame-shifting, and even racism. You hit triple-7s at the Breitbart casino.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

This post is a grab-bag of nonsense, blame-shifting, and even racism. You hit triple-7s at the Breitbart casino.

Racism? People of color living in climates with less winter sunlight than their regions of origin are known to commonly have deficient levels of Vitamin D making them more susceptible to infections (Covid or other). They don’t produce enough D without greater sun exposure. You can find the Vitamin D issue on various reputable medical websites including that of the Mayo Clinic.

 

[pitt90seven]

Racism? People of color living in climates with less winter sunlight than their regions of origin are known to commonly have deficient levels of Vitamin D making them more susceptible to infections (Covid or other). They don’t produce enough D without greater sun exposure. You can find the Vitamin D issue on various reputable medical websites including that of the Mayo Clinic.

well, the country just beside them, who gets the same amount of sunlight, had vastly superior outcomes. so which baseless argument are you going to use next?

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

I mean we have our supreme leader out there saying "if we wouldn't test so much, there wouldn't be so many cases". I think he said this as late as yesterday.

Come on man. That's the equivalent of the ostrich burying his head in the ground as a lion comes attacking.

I don't care what your political persuasion is, your president can't be saying stuff like that at times like these.

He’s what he’s always been
A malignant narcissist who only cares about himself .
Anybody who deluded themselves to believing anything else -frankly was the proverbial ostrich
An actual crisis laid that bare for all to see

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Racism? People of color living in climates with less winter sunlight than their regions of origin are known to commonly have deficient levels of Vitamin D making them more susceptible to infections (Covid or other). They don’t produce enough D without greater sun exposure. You can find the Vitamin D issue on various reputable medical websites including that of the Mayo Clinic.

Racism? People of color living in climates with less winter sunlight than their regions of origin are known to commonly have deficient levels of Vitamin D making them more susceptible to infections (Covid or other). They don’t produce enough D without greater sun exposure. You can find the Vitamin D issue on various reputable medical websites including that of the Mayo Clinic.

And queue the Dr Shiva nuts

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

well, the country just beside them, who gets the same amount of sunlight, had vastly superior outcomes. so which baseless argument are you going to use next?

Who’s to say Norway doesn’t have many more cases coming? Do you know this, or do you guess not?

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

So my brother is biochemical engineer for the past 15 years and has developed vaccines for Pfizer and now Roche. He's a pretty smart cookie. While I was partying, he was getting his PhD @ 26 years of age.

So...

We have had dozens of conversations on covid over the past few months.

Last night he made a point that seems to be gaining traction in the science community.

He said, you can brag about every form of intervention and prevention known to science in terms of how to handle covid. But, covid's ultimate initial impact will boil down to 2 things - population fitness and previous intense upper respiratory (cold/flu) seasons. He said he believes this is the denominator that the media does not focus upon. I asked him if the United States handled it's outbreak like Germany or other "successful" countries would things be drastically different? He answered it like this -

1. If you have an old population with various comorbidity that population is going to get hit the hardest - we know that.

2. If you have a population with high comorbidity your going to get hit hard again - we know this.

3. If you have had previous severe cold/flu seasons, you will not get hit as hard - we are beginning to understand this.

He said no country/region is ready to handle a massive pandemic with poor susceptible populations. They will have casualties.

He said it's no coincidence that the countries, states, regions that have handled this pandemic the best who report honest #'s are the ones who've been dealt the best cards and not the intervention/prevention tactics. Countries/regions that have handled this the best have been broken down to having natural isolation (new zealand/australia), previous harsh flu/cold seasons (E. Europe), and younger, healthier populations (aka fitness).

He sent me me a short clip this morning on the topic

View embedded media

This perspective is not politically correct.

Thus, you and your brother must be eliminated.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

Sweden’s per capita mortality rate show their strategy was dumb

Do you expect a 2nd round of covid prior to the vaccine?

 

[PittPanther44]

It’s interesting perspective - and I try to hear as much as possible from those with training

I don’t know if I’m all the way there though that the card is dealt for you. Contributing factors? Sure.

But there are plenty of examples where mitigation and precautions work. We have to be able to say “look at China” without automatically just saying their “numbers are wrong”. Of course they are understated - but they aren’t millions understated

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

It’s interesting perspective - and I try to hear as much as possible from those with training

I don’t know if I’m all the way there though that the card is dealt for you. Contributing factors? Sure.

But there are plenty of examples where mitigation and precautions work. We have to be able to say “look at China” without automatically just saying their “numbers are wrong”. Of course they are understated - but they aren’t millions understated

How do you know they aren’t millions understated?

From your perspective they are only lying a little bit. Certainly they would not like a lot.

Seems like you trust China more than America.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

This post is a grab-bag of nonsense, blame-shifting, and even racism. You hit triple-7s at the Breitbart casino.

Racism? C'mon I know you're about as woke as it gets but racism??? Maybe you should do a little research on how African populations are more susceptible to poorer covid outcomes when living in northern regions of the globe.

Who did I blame?

I've never even heard of Breitbart - what is that?

However, I noticed that you didn't respond to one comment on one point that was made.

 

[CougarClaws]

Who’s to say Norway doesn’t have many more cases coming? Do you know this, or do you guess not?

Wow man, at least steelcurtain can distort a decent come back now and then....

 

[steelcurtain55.]

It’s interesting perspective - and I try to hear as much as possible from those with training

I don’t know if I’m all the way there though that the card is dealt for you. Contributing factors? Sure.

But there are plenty of examples where mitigation and precautions work. We have to be able to say “look at China” without automatically just saying their “numbers are wrong”. Of course they are understated - but they aren’t millions understated

I'm not saying it's 100% fact, it just seems to be a trend that is beginning to gain tread.

In terms of China, let's say they're #'s are correct. The one thing that is a positive of living in a communist regime is that you can govern with a gun. Hence, a lock-down and I mean a true lock-down is legitimately feasable for many reasons.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

Wow man, at least steelcurtain can distort a decent come back now and then....

I know Norway quite well. This is certainly a concern there. It is also quite spread out. A huge land mass with 5 million people and an amazing amount of money to retain lockdowns.

Norway is not a good comparison for almost any other country.

 

[pittiswhereiamfrom2]

I'm not saying it's 100% fact, it just seems to be a trend that is beginning to gain tread.

In terms of China, let's say they're #'s are correct. The one thing that is a positive of living in a communist regime is that you can govern with a gun. Hence, a lock-down and I mean a true lock-down is legitimately feasable for many reasons.

They appear to be able to do that in America too.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

well, the country just beside them, who gets the same amount of sunlight, had vastly superior outcomes. so which baseless argument are you going to use next?

They have nowhere near the immigrant population that Sweden has.

https://www.ssb.no/en/befolkning/ar...It is also in Sweden,immigrants (see Figure 2).

Over 40% of cases in Sweden are from the Somali community.
https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matt...in-the-somali-diaspora-communities-in-sweden/

 

[lilspainishflea]

Racism? C'mon I know you're about as woke as it gets but racism??? Maybe you should do a little research on how African populations are more susceptible to poorer covid outcomes when living in northern regions of the globe.

Who did I blame?

I've never even heard of Breitbart - what is that?

However, I noticed that you didn't respond to one comment on one point that was made.

I'm not sure what your point was is in mentioning the fact that Sweden has 3x more immigrants than Norway unless it was racism or victim blaming. Nevertheless, Sweden has 22x as many deaths as Norway. So their number of immigrants doesn't explain the full picture. In other words, despite being identical in nearly all of your cited respects (age, lifestyle, and geography), Sweden is performing dramatically worse than its peers. You can't, or won't, explain why.

As to your "if you can't swim, don't jump in the pool comment," it's both monstrous and impractical, and is an idea that has been routinely and deservedly dunked on here and in the national media for weeks.

I'm not responding to you anymore about this. You do you, king.

 

[PittPanther44]

How do you know they aren’t millions understated?

From your perspective they are only lying a little bit. Certainly they would not like a lot.

Seems like you trust China more than America.

What makes you say that?

(Go ahead)

( I was giving a nuanced view of it. I don’t trust China. But i know it’s easier to say that than give a nuanced response back)

 

[steelcurtain55.]

As to your "if you can't swim, don't jump in the pool comment," it's both monstrous and impractical, and is an idea that has been routinely and deservedly dunked on here and in the national media for weeks.

It's monstrous? Have you ever lived with cancer? I along with dozens of family members have. When a doctor tells his patient to isolate because he's receiving bone marrow transplant and his immune system is compromised, the doctor is "monstrous?"

If we can't isolate the compromised, how to expect to isolate the entire population?

 

[PittPanther44]

I'm not saying it's 100% fact, it just seems to be a trend that is beginning to gain tread.

In terms of China, let's say they're #'s are correct. The one thing that is a positive of living in a communist regime is that you can govern with a gun. Hence, a lock-down and I mean a true lock-down is legitimately feasable for many reasons.

Oh no doubt. That wouldn’t have been the answer here. And the numbers aren’t correct - but let’s say they are 10x off. They still are 1/5 of us with 3x the population. That was my point .

But we were half-pregnant on this which is causing it to be a long slow burn.

I think 95% compliance on what we know would have gotten us to a point where we would be isolating and contact tracing in a fully open economy by now.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Do you expect a 2nd round of covid prior to the vaccine?

I’d like to get through the first round actually

and yes
I don’t expect a vaccine to be approved until spring 2021

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

I’d like to get through the first round actually

and yes
I don’t expect a vaccine to be approved until spring 2021

This just popped up. Let’s hope.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/health/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-phase-1-study/index.html

 

[Jakhny]

I suggest that the federal government lacked the functional power to implement a nation wide policy that would have been enforceable in any given state? Who would the federal government have done the enforcing: the FBI, the National Guard, the US Armed Forces? Cuomo has the power to remove Di Blasio under the NY State Constitution and he could not even get him to do what he wanted Di Blasio to do. Its so easy to cast blame.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

I’d like to get through the first round actually

and yes
I don’t expect a vaccine to be approved until spring 2021

I agree, and if that's the case Sweden might have been right. I'm not advocating for how they handled this. I'm just saying they believe they have a hypothesis and want to test it. The only way they'll know their right is if we get a 2nd round and they're closer to herd immunity.

 

[Jakhny]

I agree, and if that's the case Sweden might have been right. I'm not advocating for how they handled this. I'm just saying they believe they have a hypothesis and want to test it. The only way they'll know their right is if we get a 2nd round and they're closer to herd immunity.

 

[Jakhny]

Am I missing something? Did or did not the American Pediatric Association release a position paper advocating for the re-opening of schools? Now, I don't fall lock-step behind any person or any organization, but if its true that it did take that position, then isn't it unreasonable to suggest that its unhinged for Trump to take the same position the American Pediatric Association just took?
















American

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

This just popped up. Let’s hope.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/health/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-phase-1-study/index.html

Phase 1 is a long way away from approval

 

[vietvet1]

He’s what he’s always been
A malignant narcissist who only cares about himself .
Anybody who deluded themselves to believing anything else -frankly was the proverbial ostrich
An actual crisis laid that bare for all to see

Your full of s---!

 

[gbgpanther]

Your full of s---!

You can not be talking about me because I took a big dump and feel 15lbs lighter .

 

[andypappas]

Your full of s---!

So he is full of s@it about trump?

 

[Franb]

Am I missing something? Did or did not the American Pediatric Association release a position paper advocating for the re-opening of schools? Now, I don't fall lock-step behind any person or any organization, but if its true that it did take that position, then isn't it unreasonable to suggest that its unhinged for Trump to take the same position the American Pediatric Association just took?


American

From "Forbes," July 10:

"After the Trump administration used the American Academy of Pediatrics’ statement pushing for “having students physically” in classrooms to justify its campaign to fully reopen schools—and possibly withhold funding from those that remain closed—the AAP openly disagreed with the administration Friday in a new statement that argues schools “must pursue reopening in a way that is safe for all students, teachers and staff.”

“Schools in areas with high levels of COVID-19 community spread should not be compelled to reopen against the judgment of local experts,” the organizations said, arguing a “one-size-fits-all approach is not appropriate” for the reopening plans."

He did not take the same position as the AAP, he twisted their position to fit his.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

I agree, and if that's the case Sweden might have been right. I'm not advocating for how they handled this. I'm just saying they believe they have a hypothesis and want to test it. The only way they'll know their right is if we get a 2nd round and they're closer to herd immunity.

Herd immunity is very much in doubt

 

[Jakhny]

Herd immunity is very much in doubt

From "Forbes," July 10:

"After the Trump administration used the American Academy of Pediatrics’ statement pushing for “having students physically” in classrooms to justify its campaign to fully reopen schools—and possibly withhold funding from those that remain closed—the AAP openly disagreed with the administration Friday in a new statement that argues schools “must pursue reopening in a way that is safe for all students, teachers and staff.”

“Schools in areas with high levels of COVID-19 community spread should not be compelled to reopen against the judgment of local experts,” the organizations said, arguing a “one-size-fits-all approach is not appropriate” for the reopening plans."

He did not take the same position as the AAP, he twisted their position to fit his.

So you are saying Trump said schools should be opened “one size fits all”. Dude, I can do this all day and I didn’t even vote for Trump. Just be fair.