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ACC PRE-SEEDS and BRACKETS

Weight by Weight:
125: Camacho got the 6, he has Spencer Moore rd 1 then Cooper Flynn in the semis. These are both winnable matches based on what happened in the regular season but would also both be upsets. If he losses to Moore he will likely have Montaperto in the consi semis. He needs to make the finals by beating Moore and Flynn to make NCAAs. If he takes 3rd there is a small but unlikely chance he gets an at large

133: Vinny is the 4 seed, he has Jace Palmer of UNC then Kai Orine of NCST. He likely loses to Orine, beats Adams in consi semis then has the Yarbrough/Latona loser to qualify for NCAAs. If he takes 4th I would still expect him to get an at-large based on his results this season but there are going to be good wrestlers in need of a bid so the safest bet is to just qualify.

141: Cole should have McNeil in the Semis, then hopefully the Crook/Jack winner in the Finals. If he loses to McNeil in the semis I would anticipate him seeing Coleman in the consi-semi then the Crook/Jack loser for 3rd. Only top 3 get a spot, I would expect him to get an at large if needed but based on his winning % and his RPI there is a chance he gets snubbed if underperforms at ACCs.

149: Finn has the 4 seed, he has a rematch with Gioffre with in his first match, if he wins he gets Caleb Henson in the semis. I expect to see Finn face off with Jayden Scott for 3rd, a win in that match could give him a good shot at gaining an at large but at the moment I am not anticipating a spot here (even though I think Finn is a top 30 wrestler at the weight)

157: Keslar got a good draw, he has Cedeno in the first match and if he wins that Santiago in the semis. He is the underdog in both but it is better than facing Scott or Andonian. He has no shot at an at large and if goes into the consi bracket he runs into Scott or Andonian. I am not optimistic but there is a real path for Keslar to sneak into the finals and make the dance.

165: Heller has the 2 seed, he will have Brady in the Semis. He beat him in the dual but could definitely be susceptible in the rematch. If he makes the finals he should have Derek Fields, if he loses in the semis he should take third. Top Two auto qualify so winning this semi is huge for both his seed and guaranteeing a spot. We will see what ends up happening. He makes NCAA regardless barring something shocking.

174: Luca has the 5 seed. That means he has Faison who he has never beat in round 1 then Mekhi in the semis. He needs to get top 4 to qualify at this weight. If he loses in rd 1 he will have the McCoy-Eichens loser in the consi semi. If he wins rd 1 then loses to Mekhi he will have Dukes Wimmer in the consi semi. His best route is winning his first match. Luca should get an at large if he takes 5th, but with Starocci possibly MFFing out of B10s that would be 1 at large spot gone and its impossible to know who will take the others. Top 4 would be a huge relief for Luca here.

184: Reece has the 2 seed. He has Fishback in semis and the Kane/Stewart winner in finals. If he loses to Fishback he should have the Stewart/Kane loser for 3rd. Top 4 qual so I have little concern about that. I think Heller should go into this one expecting a title and cementing himself as a top 8 seed at NCAAs.

197: Mac got the 4 seed. Hes gonna beat Kinsey in rd 1 then lose to Hidlay in rd 2. He will have the Smith/Shaw loser for 3rd place. Top 4 qualify and he almost certainly gets top 4 so I think 3rd is the realistic hope for this. Hopefully get him a good draw at NCAAs and make that AA run.

285: Pitzer is back baby. He has Conner Barket rd 1 and Trephan in semis. If fully healthy I would give Dayton this one, but I am not going to be jung ho about it because Trephan did beat him last year. In the finals he would have whichever Catka brother wins in the semis. If he loses he faces off against the lesser Catka for 3rd. Only top 2 make NCAAs at this weight so making finals is a big deal. Dayton would get an At-Large but a win against Trephan then Catka would give him a huge boost in seeding criteria. If his shoulder is recovered then I think he is a real threat to AA but this weekend should tell us what we need to know.
 
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Hopeful ACC coaches use some loopholes in the future to secure more bids moving forward. I believe it was Crooks or another VT wrestler who missed an AQ spot because they were one match short. Also Cole not getting AQ spot is crazy but perhaps getting another win or two in an “extra” match would have secured. Think the ACC coaches should work together to garner as many spots as possible. Got 5 less this year compared to last. Should go up moving forward with addition of Stanford. Not ideal to only have 2 AQ’s in multiple weight classes
 
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Even more annoying that Teske was the 14 seed due to an Iowa error so that likely caused the ripple effect. Hopefully we won’t need it!
 
In order of confidence that Pitt qualifies today (mostly commenting on the bracket, not the wrestler):
95%: 197, 184 - tough to see not qualifying either, even if Reece drops the semi to Fishback.
70%: 141, 165, 174 - Luca only needs to beat one of Faison or Eischens to qualify. Holden and Cole need to repeat competitive regular season wins.
40%: 285, 133 - No true 2nd means Pitzer has to beat Trephan for an auto bid. Tough but fair path to top 3 for Vin
20%: 125, 157 - Both def on the right side of the bracket & have a decent, albeit unlikely, path to sneak into the finals.
5%: 149 - best case scenario is third here, which should be good for an at-large I hope. Can't do any better than 3rd without beating Henson.
 
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Faison beats Luca again. Obviously a clash of style but I just don’t get it. He cannot beat that kid ever but he’s beating kids twice as good.
 
That hurts because a Luca win all but guaranteed a NQ spot. Now has a toss up match
 
Vince loses 5-2, almost had a takedown to take the lead but Yarbrough pulled it out. 133 is a shitshow. Think that might it for Vinnie this season
 
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Pitt qualified 141, 184 and 197 today. Everyone else looking for an At Large

125: Miniscule chance

133: Like a 33% chance

149: I would say like 50/50

157: No shot

165: Honestly I would give this 60/40 on making it

174: Like 60/40

285: Very confident that Daton gets in, like 95% sure.

I am optimistically hoping we 6-7 qualifiers but there is not a guarantee unfortunately that we even get 5
 
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That’s the thing especially when you have Conference opponent ahead of you for that at large bid as well. I just don’t see them giving Pitt 5 to 6 at large bids. Obviously I hope they do but not holding my breath.
 
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