". . . very little separates Pitt, ND, and FSU in talent."
While this statement may be true---Talent, itself, isn't the primary factor in determining likely scoring margins. What is that factor is how well that talent is meshed into playing as a team vs as individuals. Various computer rankings/ratings predict scoring margins in that more realistic way--measuring how the talent is playing as a team
As one example, Sagarin's computer's "recent ratings" predict your six games approximately (rounding to the nearest 0.5 points) as follows:
1. Louisville--- Pitt by 17
2. @ FSU---Pitt by 2.5
3. GT---Pitt by 14
4. @ ND---Pitt by 5.5
5. BC---Pitt by 11
6. Syr---Pitt by 4.5
At this time, at least, the only one of ND and FSU that comes close to your prediction of Piit only being a 1-2 point favorite is @FSU (2.5). That being said, Pitt, or any other team could lose if their opponent goes off and shoot's lights-out on 3-balls as FSU did at Pitt.
And, for what it's worth---
@UNC -- UNC by 6
@Va Tech---Va Tech by 2.5
@Miami---Miami by 4.5
And, Pitt could get really hot from 3-ball land and pull an upset in any one of these 3-games, of course.