Colorado to Big XII just got more real

[HailToPitt725]

The other thing to consider about the Big 12: I think their commissioner (Yormark?) has played his hand masterfully. Whether it’s inviting Arizona or UConn, and potentially adding other ACC brands down the line, it’s clear that his priorities are on basketball, not football. This is evident by the fact that he’s looked at poaching the northeast Big East basketball schools and even splitting up the football/basketball media contracts.

I think this is how he envisions their end game: eventually, the Big Ten and SEC are going to split off and do their own thing. However, what do you do with March Madness in that case? There’s a lot of money to be made from the tournament, and he’s guaranteed that his conference will be involved in the future of collegiate athletics no matter what because you can’t have a basketball tournament without Kansas, Arizona, UConn, etc. If they’re able to eventually get other brands like Louisville if/when the ACC collapses, it has the making of the strongest basketball conference while also being respectable enough at football.

Given what he had to work with, I think it’s a great strategy.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The other thing to consider about the Big 12: I think their commissioner (Yormark?) has played his hand masterfully. Whether it’s inviting Arizona or UConn, and potentially adding other ACC brands down the line, it’s clear that his priorities are on basketball, not football. This is evident by the fact that he’s looked at poaching the northeast Big East basketball schools and even splitting up the football/basketball media contracts.

I think this is how he envisions their end game: eventually, the Big Ten and SEC are going to split off and do their own thing. However, what do you do with March Madness in that case? There’s a lot of money to be made from the tournament, and he’s guaranteed that his conference will be involved in the future of collegiate athletics no matter what because you can’t have a basketball tournament without Kansas, Arizona, UConn, etc. If they’re able to eventually get other brands like Louisville if/when the ACC collapses, it has the making of the strongest basketball conference while also being respectable enough at football.

Given what he had to work with, I think it’s a great strategy.

Nah. College basketball is a 3 week sport, nationally.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Finished watching the FSU BOT Chairman:

Synopsis: he said exactly what I would have thought. Indirectly, he said they would leave the ACC and not be afraid to take the risk if a spot was offered. Feels confident about challenging GOR but acknowledges risk. Having said all this, he really didnt say anything earth-shatteting. If Pitt was offered a P2 spot tomorrow, we would leave and go to court over the GOR. So would BC, Lou, Wake, etc. Everyone would. The difference is they may have an offer.

 

[Pitt2006]

At first I really wanted Pitt in the P2, but nearly every team that has left for expansion, sans Pitt has struggled. I don’t consider Utah or TCU in the same boat as they were not in P5 to begin with. But would Miami and Vt have fallen so far if they never left the big east? BC never had success. Maryland has not. Nebraska has been awful.

Texas and OU had losses in the B12 and while they will get more money will likely not return to glory in the SEC. FSU has a shot this year but move to either P2 and 2-3 Clemson await them each year.

Meanwhile, Pitt will have an easier path to the playoff. They won’t be out recruited by many non P2 programs and will still be competitive.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Nah. College basketball is a 3 week sport, nationally.

In my opinion, that’s irrelevant to what could be happening here. The bigger picture is this:

The tournament is a $1B+ event that has the majority (75%+) of its revenues directed towards Olympic sports at the D1-D3 levels. If that money is ever re-routed and/or the “Power 2” + the Big 12 take control of it, brands such as Kansas and Arizona will increase exponentially in value. In terms of collegiate athletics, it would be an event similar to the 1984 NCAA v. Oklahoma hearing. I think that’s what Yormark could be positioning the Big 12 for. Who knows, maybe I’m giving him too much credit.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

In my opinion, that’s irrelevant to what could be happening here. The bigger picture is this:

The tournament is a $1B+ event that has the majority (75%+) of its revenues directed towards Olympic sports at the D1-D3 levels. If that money is ever re-routed and/or the “Power 2” + the Big 12 take control of it, brands such as Kansas and Arizona will increase exponentially in value. In terms of collegiate athletics, it would be an event similar to the 1984 NCAA v. Oklahoma hearing. I think that’s what Yormark could be positioning the Big 12 for. Who knows, maybe I’m giving him too much credit.

You are giving him way too much credit. The NCAA Tournament is a glorified fundraiser for D1 olympic sports tournaments, and D2-D3 (all sports tournaments). The programs dont make that much off of it.

 

[HailToPitt725]

You are giving him way too much credit. The NCAA Tournament is a glorified fundraiser for D1 olympic sports tournaments, and D2-D3 (all sports tournaments). The programs dont make that much off of it.

Exactly, but what if that changes at some point in the future? Suddenly, there’s an additional $750M being distributed to the conferences and schools participating. That’s where college basketball could see a dramatic increase in value.

It’s the same reason why I’ve been proclaiming for the past five years on this site that the biggest brands in college football would come together to form nationwide super conferences: money trumps all. If this will make more money for the programs at the top, I could envision a shift like this happening.

 

[pittdan77]

That's not really a reasonable scenario. This 12-1 Georgia Tech team would only have to beat out only one of the Pac 12/Big 12 champs, and the G5 champs. That's extraordinary likely, especially since Georgia Tech would have beaten either Clemson and/or Georgia, and probably Florida St as well.

Not sure why it isn't reasonable. All it takes is "perception" that Clemson is down and the team they beat in the ACC championship isn't "worthy" and they end up a six seed. Pitt would have been a 12 seed as a conference champ the way the CFP had them ranked with two losses.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Not sure why it isn't reasonable. All it takes is "perception" that Clemson is down and the team they beat in the ACC championship isn't "worthy" and they end up a six seed. Pitt would have been a 12 seed as a conference champ the way the CFP had them ranked with two losses.

If Clemson goes 12-0, they will be a 4 seed at the very worst. An ACC team can win a NC from there. You dont need an extra $35 million per year to go 9-0 in the ACC, beat South Carolina and maybe 1 other decent team. I dont know why FSU is freaking out over money.

 

[forbesfield]

If Clemson goes 12-0, they will be a 4 seed at the very worst. An ACC team can win a NC from there. You dont need an extra $35 million per year to go 9-0 in the ACC, beat South Carolina and maybe 1 other decent team. I dont know why FSU is freaking out over money.

You will need the extra $35 million to buy the players to get the 12-0 record, since we will soon see revenue-sharing.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

Exactly, but what if that changes at some point in the future? Suddenly, there’s an additional $750M being distributed to the conferences and schools participating. That’s where college basketball could see a dramatic increase in value.

It’s the same reason why I’ve been proclaiming for the past five years on this site that the biggest brands in college football would come together to form nationwide super conferences: money trumps all. If this will make more money for the programs at the top, I could envision a shift like this happening.

Yes, nobody talks enough (aka at all) about basketball. Particularly Pitt fans, given that our football at the top level seems less likely to continue long term (assuming the obvious that the Big 2 intend to lock out all but themselves).

Without being part of the NC playoff (assuming again nothing forces the Big 2 to include the very losers they have moved to exclude), then continuing in minor league football will not be tenable for us. We’ll lose way too much money. No tickets. No attendance. No donations. No coverage. Coaches will leave. Recruiting very difficult. On and on. How can we continue? We will have to throw in behind basketball, and we will need to be in the best possible place for that (and to continue to have fairly credible opponents for the non revenue sports we have sunk so much into). What else is there but the Big East, really?

Face it, this was exactly what Mark Nordenberg ultimately figured could happen. It nearly did happen after the (old) Big East imploded, but the ACC (ironically) saved us. For about 20 years it turned out. But it should not really surprise. It’s a filthy filthy business.

 

[Chem95]

You are giving him way too much credit. The NCAA Tournament is a glorified fundraiser for D1 olympic sports tournaments, and D2-D3 (all sports tournaments). The programs dont make that much off of it.

Its not about the tournament exactly. There is a lot of air time in the winter months to fill. No, CBB doesn't draw the numbers nor the overall money that CFB does. But people still watch (and wager) on it and it still turns a tidy profit for the networks. ESPN walked away from BIG10 basketball because the price for BIG10 football became too much with multiple networks bidding up the price. Since the Big12 has deals with both FOX & ESPN...would it be unreasonable for ESPN to lowball them in the next contract? CBB is a good hedge against that.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You will need the extra $35 million to buy the players to get the 12-0 record, since we will soon see revenue-sharing.

If athletic departments are allowed to start paying players directly, then, yes, the money would be a major problem as Vanderbilt could pay more than Clemson. However, Clemson would not need SEC money to beat 9 ACC teams, South Carolina, an FCS, a G5 and Notre Dame or similar team.

 

[topdecktiger]

Not sure why it isn't reasonable. All it takes is "perception" that Clemson is down and the team they beat in the ACC championship isn't "worthy" and they end up a six seed. Pitt would have been a 12 seed as a conference champ the way the CFP had them ranked with two losses.

Several reasons.

You just said Pitt had two losses. In this scenario Georgia Tech only has one.

The percentage of the Sun Belt, MAC, and CUSA is undeniably worse.

The Mountain West and AAC have a lesser perception than the ACC, especially with the AAC now having lost its best teams.

The perception of the Pac 12 has definitely lessened with the loss of Southern Cal. Same with the Big 12. If the perception of Clemson being down hurts the ACC, the complete absence of Texas and Oklahoma has the Big 12's perception permanently down.

 

[Pitt2006]

I’m also curious how the meta verse will affect things. If the viewing experience is truly like nothing we have ever seen, it could play a role down the road. Everyone brushed off 1K phones at the time. 3K in the future may be the same thing. However, I think Apple is also using this as a way to pilot sports VR tech. if that happens, I’d expect Meta and maybe Microsoft to step in down the road as well.

 

[cashisking884]

Finished watching the FSU BOT Chairman:

Synopsis: he said exactly what I would have thought. Indirectly, he said they would leave the ACC and not be afraid to take the risk if a spot was offered. Feels confident about challenging GOR but acknowledges risk.

The whole, “if the GOR could be broken, they would have done it by now” argument always missed the boat in terms of how the legal world works and diving into litigation.

 

[pittdan77]

If Clemson goes 12-0, they will be a 4 seed at the very worst. An ACC team can win a NC from there. You dont need an extra $35 million per year to go 9-0 in the ACC, beat South Carolina and maybe 1 other decent team. I dont know why FSU is freaking out over money.

Thanks. We weren't talking about Clemson.

 

[pittdan77]

Several reasons.

You just said Pitt had two losses. In this scenario Georgia Tech only has one.

The percentage of the Sun Belt, MAC, and CUSA is undeniably worse.

The Mountain West and AAC have a lesser perception than the ACC, especially with the AAC now having lost its best teams.

The perception of the Pac 12 has definitely lessened with the loss of Southern Cal. Same with the Big 12. If the perception of Clemson being down hurts the ACC, the complete absence of Texas and Oklahoma has the Big 12's perception permanently down.

They took an AAC team two years ago. If you're trying to convince me that a one loss ACC school doesn't get slotted behind a two loss Bama or Ohio State, I'm not sure what to tell you.

 

[cashisking884]

If athletic departments are allowed to start paying players directly, then, yes, the money would be a major problem as Vanderbilt could pay more than Clemson. However, Clemson would not need SEC money to beat 9 ACC teams, South Carolina, an FCS, a G5 and Notre Dame or similar team.

Yes they will.

If you are in a second tier conference, you will be a second tier program when this all shakes out.

You refuse to believe this. And that’s fine. But nobody in charge of these schools and programs, agrees with you.

Which is why this whole argument some people want Phillips to make is a non-starter.

 

[topdecktiger]

They took an AAC team two years ago. If you're trying to convince me that a one loss ACC school doesn't get slotted behind a two loss Bama or Ohio State, I'm not sure what to tell you.

The AAC team they took is no longer in the AAC.

I doesn't matter if a one loss team is behind Alabama and Ohio St. The top four conference winners get a first round bye. Even if the SEC and Big Ten get the top two spots, there are still two spots left for a bye. Even if we give the Big 12 the third spot, you only have to beat out the G5 champs and the Pac 12 champ. Given the poor perception of the remaining G5 leagues, and the diminished perception of the Pac 12, the odds are overwhelmingly on favor of a 12-1 Georgia Tech ACC champion getting that #4 spot.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yes they will.

If you are in a second tier conference, you will be a second tier program when this all shakes out.

You refuse to believe this. And that’s fine. But nobody in charge of these schools and programs, agrees with you.

Which is why this whole argument some people want Phillips to make is a non-starter.

Why does Clemson need SEC money to beat ACC teams?

 

[cashisking884]

Why does Clemson need SEC money to beat ACC teams?

I don’t think Clemson is worried about that.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The whole, “if the GOR could be broken, they would have done it by now” argument always missed the boat in terms of how the legal world works and diving into litigation.

I dont think anyone believes it can be broken. FSU is hoping for a P2 invite and a settlement.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I don’t think Clemson is worried about that.

They are worried about being able win the other 4 games then?

South Carolina
FCS
G5
1 other good team

They cant win those 4 games without an extra $35 million per year?

 

[pafootballguy]

If athletic departments are allowed to start paying players directly, then, yes, the money would be a major problem as Vanderbilt could pay more than Clemson. However, Clemson would not need SEC money to beat 9 ACC teams, South Carolina, an FCS, a G5 and Notre Dame or similar team.

That $35 million lets you encourage donors to give to collectives or other NIL deals.

You are literally the only person who thinks that a $35 million dollar gap is a none issue.

 

[cashisking884]

They are worried about being able win the other 4 games then?

South Carolina
FCS
G5
1 other good team

They cant win those 4 games without an extra $35 million per year?

I think this is an example of a sheep being unable to comprehend the thinking of a lion.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

At first I really wanted Pitt in the P2, but nearly every team that has left for expansion, sans Pitt has struggled. I don’t consider Utah or TCU in the same boat as they were not in P5 to begin with. But would Miami and Vt have fallen so far if they never left the big east? BC never had success. Maryland has not. Nebraska has been awful.

Texas and OU had losses in the B12 and while they will get more money will likely not return to glory in the SEC. FSU has a shot this year but move to either P2 and 2-3 Clemson await them each year.

Meanwhile, Pitt will have an easier path to the playoff. They won’t be out recruited by many non P2 programs and will still be competitive.

VT and BC had a good but of success early on in the ACC. In their first four years, VT played for the conference championship four times and BC did twice. In the first seven years, VT played for a conference championship five times. In total, they have six times. I don't think their fall from grace has anything to do with being in the ACC.

You could argue BC having a path that includes FSU and Clemson hasn't done them any favors.

 

[Pitt2006]

VT and BC had a good but of success early on in the ACC. In their first four years, VT played for the conference championship four times and BC did twice. In the first seven years, VT played for a conference championship five times. In total, they have six times. I don't think their fall from grace has anything to do with being in the ACC.

You could argue BC having a path that includes FSU and Clemson hasn't done them any favors.

I forgot about Vt, but what path does Texas and Oklahoma expect to have? I can see USC having it easy in B1G west. Unless they lump bama, Georgia, UF on one side and Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, LSU on the other

 

[pittdan77]

The AAC team they took is no longer in the AAC.

I doesn't matter if a one loss team is behind Alabama and Ohio St. The top four conference winners get a first round bye. Even if the SEC and Big Ten get the top two spots, there are still two spots left for a bye. Even if we give the Big 12 the third spot, you only have to beat out the G5 champs and the Pac 12 champ. Given the poor perception of the remaining G5 leagues, and the diminished perception of the Pac 12, the odds are overwhelmingly on favor of a 12-1 Georgia Tech ACC champion getting that #4 spot.

You're making assumptions that don't necessarily hold water. It's not a given that the ACC champ gets a higher slot than the other conferences. If Oregon, TCU, and Georgia Tech all have the same record, I wouldn't be counting my chickens.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

There was a great article on the GOR being based on a 115 year old Supreme Court case. Of course FSU is saying they will defeat it. Are they going to say otherwise. They are going for a settlement. And I say, no settlement. Take them to court, win and the ACC can keep their home games until 2036. But even if FSU was assured they would lose in court, they would still leave without rights to their home games if a P2 would have them.

Inside the Big 12's 'ironclad' grant of rights contract that helped keep the ACC together amid turbulence

How a seemingly unbreakable document has kept two leagues largely together during realignment

www.cbssports.com

But I don't think that would ever happen. If there is any question as to whether or not FSU increases the overall share, certainly the answer is at least "no" while another conference owns their rights.

So if the GOR remains in tact, nobody is going anywhere until at least 2034 or so, when maybe once conference decides to eat those two years of losses jut so the other conference doesn't nab them or something.

 

[pittdan77]

But I don't think that would ever happen. If there is any question as to whether or not FSU increases the overall share, certainly the answer is at least "no" while another conference owns their rights.

So if the GOR remains in tact, nobody is going anywhere until at least 2034 or so, when maybe once conference decides to eat those two years of losses jut so the other conference doesn't nab them or something.

He just types stuff sometimes.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I forgot about Vt, but what path does Texas and Oklahoma expect to have? I can see USC having it easy in B1G west. Unless they lump bama, Georgia, UF on one side and Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, LSU on the other

BIG and SEC are both getting rid of divisions. I think they realize their records are going to be a lot murkier with the teams they've added, which is why they pushed to expand the playoff.

 

[topdecktiger]

You're making assumptions that don't necessarily hold water. It's not a given that the ACC champ gets a higher slot than the other conferences. If Oregon, TCU, and Georgia Tech all have the same record, I wouldn't be counting my chickens.

They necessarily hold water.

 

[forbesfield]

I forgot about Vt, but what path does Texas and Oklahoma expect to have? I can see USC having it easy in B1G west. Unless they lump bama, Georgia, UF on one side and Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, LSU on the other

The Big Ten is getting rid of divisions.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

But I don't think that would ever happen. If there is any question as to whether or not FSU increases the overall share, certainly the answer is at least "no" while another conference owns their rights.

So if the GOR remains in tact, nobody is going anywhere until at least 2034 or so, when maybe once conference decides to eat those two years of losses jut so the other conference doesn't nab them or something.

The Grant of Rights doesn't prevent a team from leaving. Anyone is free to leave at any time and would just owe the contracted exit fee (separate from GOR). If FSU leaves and doesn't challenge the GOR, then their home games vs SEC or B10 teams remain with the ACC. This would also mean they literally bring $0 in value to those leagues until 2036. They would be suing the ACC for some settlement to get their home games back.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

The Grant of Rights doesn't prevent a team from leaving. Anyone is free to leave at any time and would just owe the contracted exit fee (separate from GOR). If FSU leaves and doesn't challenge the GOR, then their home games vs SEC or B10 teams remain with the ACC. This would also mean they literally bring $0 in value to those leagues until 2036. They would be suing the ACC for some settlement to get their home games back.

That's my point. There's debate as to whether or not Florida State, for example, adds value to the BIG. Well, they sure as HELL don't add value if the GOR is still in effect, because the BIG wouldn't even see the money for their home games.

So you said FSU would still leave even if they lost in court, and I'm saying I definitely don't think they would have a landing spot in that instance. I feel like the BIG invite would be contingent of them breaking the GOR (or agreeing to a settlement).

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

That $35 million lets you encourage donors to give to collectives or other NIL deals.

You are literally the only person who thinks that a $35 million dollar gap is a none issue.

This is making many assumptions:

1. That there will NOT be congressional regulations on NIL. Will this pay for play NIL continue to be allowed unregulated?

2. Greedy as hell P2 programs actually encourage donations away from them and to the players (ie collective)

These are both possible but neither is likely, especially #2. If FSU is running scared because they feel SEC donors will stop donating to their school and instead pay the players, that is pretty unreasonable.

But I think all of can agree that unless this extra TV money DOES find its way to players' pockets, its not equaling extra wins. Its going to be spent on meaningless ancillary things.

 

[PSUinSTL]

The Grant of Rights doesn't prevent a team from leaving. Anyone is free to leave at any time and would just owe the contracted exit fee (separate from GOR). If FSU leaves and doesn't challenge the GOR, then their home games vs SEC or B10 teams remain with the ACC. This would also mean they literally bring $0 in value to those leagues until 2036. They would be suing the ACC for some settlement to get their home games back.

Their value wouldn’t be 0. It would be low but say FSU or Clemson at OSU or USC or PSU would add value to the big ten. Not much but some. The deal is for HOME games

Would the ACC have to pay FSU their share in that case. If so it might be worth it. I can see the BIG saying to FSU if they join you get your acc money we give you a couple million like a few (which I’m sure courts happen) until the GOR is over than you get the full share. The money would be there. The carriage rate increase in FSU (which isn’t tied to broadcasting home games) would allow teams to increase revenue and pay FSU

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

That's my point. There's debate as to whether or not Florida State, for example, adds value to the BIG. Well, they sure as HELL don't add value if the GOR is still in effect, because the BIG wouldn't even see the money for their home games.

So you said FSU would still leave even if they lost in court, and I'm saying I definitely don't think they would have a landing spot in that instance. I feel like the BIG invite would be contingent of them breaking the GOR (or agreeing to a settlement).

Right.

But lets say a P2 feels that FSU adds value (eventually). They could invite them and tell them, "no TV money for you until we get your home games." That's no risk for the B10 or SEC and in the case of the B10, allows them to get BTN on in Florida so there is some good revenue opportunity there.....so maybe FSU can get a cut of FL BTN revenue until they get back their home games.

Would FSU turn this down? Would Pitt? Heck no. You go to the P2 and if it means you have to go 12 years out without TV money, you borrow from the general fund and make due. Its a long-term move.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Their value wouldn’t be 0. It would be low but say FSU or Clemson at OSU or USC or PSU would add value to the big ten. Not much but some. The deal is for HOME games

Would the ACC have to pay FSU their share in that case. If so it might be worth it. I can see the BIG saying to FSU if they join you get your acc money we give you a couple million like a few (which I’m sure courts happen) until the GOR is over than you get the full share. The money would be there. The carriage rate increase in FSU (which isn’t tied to broadcasting home games) would allow teams to increase revenue and pay FSU

Pretty much agreed. I said $0 but replacing IU @ OSU with FSU @ OSU does bring in a small amount of revenue. Plus BTN in FLA as I already said.

And if FSU isnt successful in getting back their home games, I would suspect they are NOT entitled to a share of the ACC TV money as a non-member. Otherwise, there really is no risk for them. If they did get their share of ACC TV money while in the B10, the GOR would have been basically a nothing burger.