We are probably in some bracketology's. Long, long way to go but we'd only have to finish 10-7 with 5 left vs Lou, FSU, and BC. There would be a very doable path. Biggest game at The Pete since, I cant even remember. Big opportunity
If we beat UNC
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
We’re already knocking on the door - Lunardi has us in next four out
One game at a time. Let’s just make the NIT for beginners. That’s a huge success.
We all would have signed up for the NIT before the season but I want to get to late Feb/March on the bubble with some meaningful games to play. The bad thing is lets say we make the NIT, well this team loses its entire backcourt and would probably take a step back next year though I guess Capel could sell his success with transfers and reload to an extent.
Yes, he will probably return two 24 year old guards, have a 24 year old hometown hero hit the portal and a 24 year old Sharp shooter with a prior relationship to the staff…
It’s not a repeatable action. The team will take a step back next year, Dior most likely won’t be here and they’ll be relying heavily on mediocre freshmen. Capel rebuild #5 off an NIT appearance
I mean, if we go to NIT/NCAAs then he can sell that and how successful Nelly/Elliott were here and I think it is a semi-repeatable action.
If he can’t make one of those then he shouldn’t be back anyways b
I get all that and there would be a great chance we'd take a step back. But, in theory, if we return Hinson and lets say Hugley finally starts looking like a P5 player, he would have more ammo to get guys in the portal. Maybe guys even better than Nelly and Elliot.
Hugley will never be the starting center at Pitt again. It’s over for him. Fede is better than him and has way higher upside
Maybe but even still. If this team gets to the NIT and returns Hinson, Fede, the twins and has that good class, Capel could bring in good transfers.
I actually don't think this will be too difficult to replicate.
The front court will be largely the same. I think Hugley and Santos will be gone.
You just have to focus on a couple old guards who can shoot and I think that's what's most plentiful in the portal.
But that's neither here nor there yet.
Jeff needs to keep this team together and prove his teams don't break down every year
They landed 2 guards from the portal that both were connected to the staff or the program. They had another old guard already on roster and a Covid redshirt senior. It’s gonna be very hard to replicate the guard situation.
They had connections with Nelly and Elliot, yes. But the program was in disarray. An NIT bid shows transfers that this team could get to the tournament. They could get guys they dont have relationships with.
As evidenced by 5 years of not being able to do that because of an NIT bid? Do you guys seriously believe the things you say?
Mass transfers/everyone has a new team every year only started like 2 years ago
I really don't think it should be difficult.
Now .... has this staff, earned any benefit of the doubt?
Absolutely Not.
This Pitt team passes the "eye test". Anyone can watch and see there is real talent and guys who can make shots this year. The only question is can Capel get enough from the bench in terms of good minutes to keep these guys fresh all season so there is no crash and burn down the stretch.
I'm not sure where you saw this, but on ESPN's web site his bracket updated as of yesterday ( see here for details ) does not have us in the next four out.
His first four out are NC State, Northwestern, OK State and Utah, and his next four out are USC, UAB, UNLV and Providence.
As of right now, we're not close. NIT Bracketology has us as a 6 seed. With a NET of 70, that's about right. But beat UNC and our NET probably goes to 55 and we're probably First Four Out or Next Four Out
I looked at the Bracket Matrix and out of the 34 people he is tracking one person has us in, in the play in game.
We still have a long way to go.
Beat UNC and we start appearing in a decent amount of brackets. Beat UNC and Clemson and we're probably in most brackets. So right now, we arent close, but we also arent very far.
We will just have to see. I realized I have no clue how many games or what tourneys he has to make. I like these current players cuz they’re easy to root for. I will wait till March to care more about who our head coach will be next season.
There was a graphic on twitter yesterday that had The last 4 in, first four out and next four out. Pitt was in it. I didn’t pay much attention but it was a reputable source. May/may not have been Lunardi. It’s still December.
Capel has shown an ability to close on good recruits when he gets kids on campus (outside of Covid when everything was only Zoom). What he hasn’t shown is the ability to make it work when they get here. I don’t doubt that we will have a decent roster next year. Musical chairs is part of the business now and when the music stops, we will be fine. But how he executes with them next season will be the remaining question for me. If he makes it to next season. Lots of basketball left. It’s December.
I don't have much hope for a win vs UNC. They are finally beginning to play as they were expected to play despite a strangely weak start.
As far as the rest of the season goes I am keeping my expectations only for this Pitt team to finish above 0.500---a 17-14 regular season will not be a disappointment in my mind. I am not ratcheting up expectations any higher. Capel and staff still have much to prove.
It was whoever does brackets for Fox Sports
Lmao. Probably Wanstash sent it in.. but he would have given Capel a 2 seed, might not have been him..
Our NET is becoming a real problem. Its 72 after the UNC win, meaning we probably wouldn't make the field if the tournament was announced today. Somehow it has dropped considerably over the past few weeks. We were 59 at one point (maybe after beating NC State or Syracuse) but have been dropping ever since. This early in the season, I expected a win over UNC to move us up 10-15 spots but we only moved up 1. Just weird how NET works. We go from 73 to 72 for beating UNC. Miami goes from 40 to 32 for beating ND.
Michigan and Vandy dipped to Q3 losses this week. Both ended up being just short of the Q2 line. I think they’ll both get back there.
I was going to say that if we beat UVa, we may be able to get in at 12-8 but NET is just too low. I realize there's a lot of season left but we're absolutely going to lose to bad NET teams. So, we may need to go 13-7 including another few wins over UVa/VT/Duke/UNC. As far as the NCAAT goes that win over UNC was a must win and I didn't think it was at the time.
I counted 11 possible wins in the ACC even if we go 0-3 in our next 3 games. Beat either Duke or UVA, I think there’s a real shot at 12 wins. And if that happens maybe things will have a way of working out?
I can't imagine beating
UVA and/or Duke.....But
I didn't think we'd beat
UNC either. What IMO,
will tell us who and what
we are, is what we do
after those two games.
If we lose both, how do
we respond? Right now,
I like our maturity, and
our cohesiveness. I'm
hoping we maintain
both.....if we do I feel
we'll be ok.
The benefit is that three of Pitt’s four losses are either neutral or on the road. And the home loss will be Q2 at worst, since WVU might even end up being a Q1. There’s a very real chance that all three of Michigan, VCU and Vanderbilt will end up being Q2 losses by the end of the year - Michigan stinks right now but they’re too talented to be bad, VCU lost a few high major games but they’ll do well in the A10, and Vandy probably won’t be that good, but the fact that it’s a true road loss gives a bunch of wiggle room to sneak them back into Q2 territory.
Win probability from ESPN
UVa 38%
Clemson 58%
@ Duke 17%
@ GT 51%
@ Lou 85%
FSU 83%
Wake 65%
Miami 53%
@ UNC 20%
Lou 95%
@ FSU 54%
BC 86%
@ VT 23%
GT 80%
Syr 73%
@ ND 48%
@ Miami 19%
Favored in 11 more. Still think we need 10 more to have a good shot.
We win 9 more, that is what, 12-8, 19-12 overall. Yeah, I think we need 13 wins. Man that Vandy or VCU games just killed us. Especially Vandy.
And his bracket is literally the best damn bracket period. It says so, right there in the title!
Bracket Matrix has us as the 15th team out and only in 2 of 36 brackets. That's WAY worse than I thought. NET is killing us. Funny thing is our RPI is 20 points higher. Might even have to 14-6.
