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I'm not a gambler (PITT vs Louisville)

jivecat

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Jul 5, 2001
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Not a gambler but I will look at the lines to see "favorites". Vegas seems to call these games with a science. I really don't understand why PITT is a dog in the game against Louisville. Can any of the gambling crew fill me in on this? Are they truly expected to lose this game or is this simply an algorithm that exists to move money to the house on the wager?
 
Vegas lines are pretty accurate. Better than any of the "advanced" analytics lines you see ESPN or whoever put out there. They aren't trying to move money on Pitt Lousville. Other than the Super Bowl where a ton of casuals bet, the idea that they try to get 50/50 action on each side of the game is mostly false. Not enough people will bet on this game for them to worry about that. The line is -1 because Vegas thinks Pitt is 2 points better than Louisville on a neutral field, and home field is worth 3 points. Vegas doesn't think too highly of us, nor should they!
 
Vegas lines are pretty accurate. Better than any of the "advanced" analytics lines you see ESPN or whoever put out there. They aren't trying to move money on Pitt Lousville. Other than the Super Bowl where a ton of casuals bet, the idea that they try to get 50/50 action on each side of the game is mostly false. Not enough people will bet on this game for them to worry about that. The line is -1 because Vegas thinks Pitt is 2 points better than Louisville on a neutral field, and home field is worth 3 points. Vegas doesn't think too highly of us, nor should they!
Thanks...that makes sense. I personally think people who gamble are degenerates and have no real skills in life so they live vicariously through sports teams. Pretty sad they don't realize that they are pawns who are giving their money back to the company store. They are the modern day sharecropper.
 
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Thanks...that makes sense. I personally think people who gamble are degenerates and have no real skills in life so they live vicariously through sports teams. Pretty sad they don't realize that they are pawns who are giving their money back to the company store. They are the modern day sharecropper.
So what is the difference in a person who wants to put 20 on a game to enjoy it more and a person who blows money to go see the opera to enjoy that. Sports betting is often done because it adds excitement to a game that one has no personal favorite.
 
It started with Pitt +1 and has gone to +2.5. The sharps bet Louisville when the line came out.
 
So what is the difference in a person who wants to put 20 on a game to enjoy it more and a person who blows money to go see the opera to enjoy that. Sports betting is often done because it adds excitement to a game that one has no personal favorite.
that's pretty much the only reason i play fantasy football. so i can watch a non steeler NFL game. outside of a very good game (Last week's Chiefs/bills game) i have an extremely hard time sitting thru an nfl game. now that i play fantasy, it gives me a rooting interest..
 
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that's how i feel about people who play the lottery or the old heads who cash in their social security checks and go play the slots at the casinos..


But again, if someone gets enjoyment out of going to the casino for a couple hours, how is that any different than getting enjoyment out of spending a couple hours watching a football game or a basketball game or a concert?

At the end of the day it's spending money to entertain yourself. What difference does it make what the venue for that is?
 
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But again, if someone gets enjoyment out of going to the casino for a couple hours, how is that any different than getting enjoyment out of spending a couple hours watching a football game or a basketball game or a concert?

At the end of the day it's spending money to entertain yourself. What difference does it make what the venue for that is?
it's not really at all. Someone else's vice is always worse than our own vice..

sitting in front of a slot machine is a waste of time in my opinion but i'll go up to the local watering hole and watch a pirate game for 3 hours, spending 50 bucks on miller lite drafts..
 
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Gambling is statistically proven that you WILL lose. So why would you purposely put yourself against statistics when the eventual outcome is losing money. Talk about a loser's mentality.
 
Gambling is statistically proven that you WILL lose. So why would you purposely put yourself against statistics when the eventual outcome is losing money. Talk about a loser's mentality.
geez man, you never laid a bet down on a game or played a hand of blackjack? Sometimes you win too.

i get it, the house has the odds but man oh man, you go thru life with this mindset, you'll lead a pretty boring existance.
 
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geez man, you never laid a bet down on a game or played a hand of blackjack? Sometimes you win too.

i get it, the house has the odds but man oh man, you go thru life with this mindset, you'll lead a pretty boring existance.
Honestly, I can't get past the odds, myself. It's a weird hang-up of mine, that's all. I take small-time action in a pool with a group of people but it's low risk.
 
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I thought the Louisville line was strange too based upon the last 2 games. Pitt was a 21+ pt favorite against GT and then a 14 pt favorite against VT. Either Vegas finally gave up hope on pitt as more than mediocre or they somehow view Louisville at home as far superior than GT and VT as road teams.
 
Vegas lines are pretty accurate. Better than any of the "advanced" analytics lines you see ESPN or whoever put out there. They aren't trying to move money on Pitt Lousville. Other than the Super Bowl where a ton of casuals bet, the idea that they try to get 50/50 action on each side of the game is mostly false. Not enough people will bet on this game for them to worry about that. The line is -1 because Vegas thinks Pitt is 2 points better than Louisville on a neutral field, and home field is worth 3 points. Vegas doesn't think too highly of us, nor should they!
I disagree with this. Vegas absolutely does work to get 50/50 money on each side. September lines are nearly always based on the hype and name value because that is what gamblers are gambling off of most of the time. In October, Vegas lines are based on a mix of hype and results because the average gambler is still basing their plays off of hype and name recognition. By December, the hype is a nonfactor and Vegas is on point with their lines based on the realities of each team.

As such, October lines are the easiest to bet. There are always lines that are off enough that if you are watching the games most weeks, you can make some nice money on Vegas' lagging line adjustments.

For the record, I am 65% ATS so far this year and have been between 55-70% over the last three years so I have some success to back my position here
 
Gambling is statistically proven that you WILL lose. So why would you purposely put yourself against statistics when the eventual outcome is losing money. Talk about a loser's mentality.


If you buy a ticket to a Pitt football game or a concert or a play, when the event is over you WILL have less money than what you started with. If I pay $50 to spend the evening at a concert or I spend $50 gambling at the casino, at the end of the night I'll have the same amount of money in my pocket, and one would hope I will have spent the evening being entertained.

So what's the difference?
 
geez man, you never laid a bet down on a game or played a hand of blackjack? Sometimes you win too.

i get it, the house has the odds but man oh man, you go thru life with this mindset, you'll lead a pretty boring existance.
Yeah I mean I enjoy buying a couple scratch tickets . No harm . Hell I just won
$1000 dollars not too long ago ... Put 200 back in but still ...
 
I thought the Louisville line was strange too based upon the last 2 games. Pitt was a 21+ pt favorite against GT and then a 14 pt favorite against VT. Either Vegas finally gave up hope on pitt as more than mediocre or they somehow view Louisville at home as far superior than GT and VT as road teams.
Vegas is having just as hard of a time figuring out Louisville as they are Pitt. We got blown out as a road favorite at Syracuse, then beat UCF on the road as an underdog. (Still UCF’s only loss). We lost a close game at home against FSU, then blew out a bad USF team… which were results that seemed reasonable, but then lost as a 15 point favorite at Boston College. And finally beat Virginia by 17 as a road underdog with Cunningham out.

So what do you do in a matchup of two teams that seem to defy the line each week? “Pickem” sounds about right!
 
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Not a gambler but I will look at the lines to see "favorites". Vegas seems to call these games with a science. I really don't understand why PITT is a dog in the game against Louisville. Can any of the gambling crew fill me in on this? Are they truly expected to lose this game or is this simply an algorithm that exists to move money to the house on the wager?
Georgia tech was a under dog too and we know how that ended
 
Judging by Twitter it seems a LOT of PITT fans are heading to Louisville… many already there
 
Thanks...that makes sense. I personally think people who gamble are degenerates and have no real skills in life so they live vicariously through sports teams. Pretty sad they don't realize that they are pawns who are giving their money back to the company store. They are the modern day sharecropper.
You started a thread just so you could post this gem?

Well done. I guess.

Maybe you should have led off with it.
 
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You started a thread just so you could post this gem?

Well done. I guess.

Maybe you should have led off with it.
Imagine creating a troll / burner account 21 years ago. This is so odd to me. I'm not sure which is more pathetic, the wanna be funny trolling Pitt fan, or the sleeper accounts that get activated by hoopies and nitters.
 
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Vegas lines are pretty accurate. Better than any of the "advanced" analytics lines you see ESPN or whoever put out there. They aren't trying to move money on Pitt Lousville. Other than the Super Bowl where a ton of casuals bet, the idea that they try to get 50/50 action on each side of the game is mostly false. Not enough people will bet on this game for them to worry about that. The line is -1 because Vegas thinks Pitt is 2 points better than Louisville on a neutral field, and home field is worth 3 points. Vegas doesn't think too highly of
Vegas lines are pretty accurate. Better than any of the "advanced" analytics lines you see ESPN or whoever put out there. They aren't trying to move money on Pitt Lousville. Other than the Super Bowl where a ton of casuals bet, the idea that they try to get 50/50 action on each side of the game is mostly false. Not enough people will bet on this game for them to worry about that. The line is -1 because Vegas thinks Pitt is 2 points better than Louisville on a neutral field, and home field is worth 3 points. Vegas doesn't think too highly of us, nor should they!
I just would like to know where they get the line and their reasoning for it. Not sure I agree with your comment how they don’t want 50/50. If that’s not true, why does the line keep changing?
 
Imagine creating a troll / burner account 21 years ago. This is so odd to me. I'm not sure which is more pathetic, the wanna be funny trolling Pitt fan, or the sleeper accounts that get activated by hoopies and nitters.
I am a troll because I think gambling is stupid (which it is) and asked for some background on how lines are set?

wow.
 
So what is the difference in a person who wants to put 20 on a game to enjoy it more and a person who blows money to go see the opera to enjoy that. Sports betting is often done because it adds excitement to a game that one has no personal favorite.
The difference is there is no fine print for addiction phone numbers below the ads for an Opera problem for Monteverdi’s L’incoronazione di Poppea
 
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Not sure I agree with your comment how they don’t want 50/50. If that’s not true, why does the line keep changing?


They don't want it 50/50. They would much rather it be, for example, 60/40 with the sharp money on the 40 and the public on the 60.

If I walked into a casino today and bet a million dollars on Pitt (no one would take that bet, but just roll with it) the point spread almost certainly would not change. Because I am a nobody. But on the other hand, if a sharp walked into the same casino and bet a few thousand on Pitt they would quite likely change the spread.

The sharp betters would like nothing more than for the books to move the point spread to try to chase the public money, because it would frequently give them an even better chance to win. Which means that the books have a better chance to lose.
 
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If you want a real life example of this, there is a rich guy who owns furniture stores down in Houston who runs promos every year at his stores based on local sports teams winning. For instance he ran a promo earlier this summer that was something like if the Astros win the World Series everyone who bought furniture during the sale would get a rebate on their purchase. Buy $5000 worth of furniture, if the Astros win the World Series you get all $5000 back. Free furniture!

The way that the guy pays for that is not by buying insurance, he makes millions of dollars worth of bets on the outcome that he needs. The story that I read said that he had something like $6 million in total at a few different books bet on the Astros to win the World Series. So when the Astros made it to the ALCS they asked a couple of the guys who run sports books if they would be manipulating the odds on the Astros to try to bring in more money on their opponents. And they both said, essentially, that no, they wouldn't be doing that because it isn't really worth it to them.
 
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I will admit I put $100 (with a $100 match) on Pitt to win the NC.

Would pay off at $37,500.
 
They don't want it 50/50. They would much rather it be, for example, 60/40 with the sharp money on the 40 and the public on the 60.

If I walked into a casino today and bet a million dollars on Pitt (no one would take that bet, but just roll with it) the point spread almost certainly would not change. Because I am a nobody. But on the other hand, if a sharp walked into the same casino and bet a few thousand on Pitt they would quite likely change the spread.

The sharp betters would like nothing more than for the books to move the point spread to try to chase the public money, because it would frequently give them an even better chance to win. Which means that the books have a better chance to lose.
Not sure how making a huge bet on Pitt wouldn’t move the line. I always felt that if a lot of public just started betting Pitt that would cause the line to move bc if Pitt did indeed win, Vegas loses money.
 
Not sure how making a huge bet on Pitt wouldn’t move the line. I always felt that if a lot of public just started betting Pitt that would cause the line to move bc if Pitt did indeed win, Vegas loses money.


Because if the public is on Pitt but the smart money is on Louisville then all moving the line does is give the smart money the chance to put even more money down on Louisville at even better odds. They'd rather have 60% of the money (all numbers for illustrative purposes only) on the team with the 35% chance to win rather than 40% of the money on the team with a 65% chance to win.

With very few exceptions, it is not the public money that moves the lines, it's the sharp money that moves the lines.
 
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Not sure how making a huge bet on Pitt wouldn’t move the line. I always felt that if a lot of public just started betting Pitt that would cause the line to move bc if Pitt did indeed win, Vegas loses money.
Any bookmaker that moves off of square money in a major sport has no clue what he’s doing and would soon be fired.

If you’re betting some obscure prop with $500 limits or less and the action gets too one sided sure they will move the number, but in a liquid market with heavy volume casinos book to who is making the bets, not how much.

Ive given this example before, but when I was in the business we had a well known casino owner from another property who bet us a million each on 8-10 NFL games a week. This was at a time when technically our limit on the NFL was 20k per game. Obviously that limit was for sophisticated players only, if you were a known chump you could bet anything you wanted.

Needless to say we did not move our number off of that big players bets, it would be foolish to do so and akin to just giving away value to the sharper players and cutting into your profit margin. Mathematically speaking I guess the easiest way to put it is you want to put yourself in a position where as a book you are rooting for the sharper players that historically hit 55% to win rather than the square whale that historically hits 48%. You may have some bad weeks here and there, but in the end the odds inevitably even out.
 
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