All of this to potentially end up in the Big 12. Could you imagine if that was the scenario that played out?
It looks like FSU is voting to challenge the GOR tomorrow
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The SEC will get the right of 1st refusal. If they wont let FSU in, the Big Ten will gladly take them. The Big 12 talk is just to show they are serious about leaving. It would be frickin hilarious if they did wind up in the Big 12 playing UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. I actually hope that happens.
Well, they just named the only 3 options. Not a whole lot of valuable insight there.
The Big Conference USA is a horrible downgrade of an option for them. It really is not an option at all ....unless they are really that stupid....but their leadership has sort of demonstrated that previously, so one has to be careful not to put anything beyond the reach of that level of idiocy.
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I like how the source basically just listed every P4 conference outside of the ACC. Elite insight.
The ACC IS done...it's just a matter of whether it is now or at some point between now and 13 years from now. Been telling you mopes that for nearly a year. But you guys would rather keep on cursing the darkness and believing in miracles.
As long as the conference champion gets an automatic bid to the playoffs it isn’t going anywhere.
The best brands will leave eventually but if the GOR stands then they wont leave for 13 years and lots of things can change in that time. In 5 years, the B12 media deal is going to get a massive haircut while the ACC's is locked in so we can go after Colorado, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and maybe Kansas (KC + basketball).
I believe that about the big 10 and SEC, however had the ACC acted first some of those teams may have joined the ACC before they were offered by the other conferences. As far as the ESPN contract, the ACC agreement was too long and for too little. They knew the other conferences had contracts that were about to expire.
The reason it is so long is because of the acc network. The sec contract is 20 years as well because of the sec network. The difference with the sec was the cbs games were available but the sec had to sign a 20 year deal for their ESPN deal.
Look what the pac 12 was offered and the big xii got. The acc was and never will get what the big and sec makes. The ratings say that.
There are no Auto bids for ANY conference. It is currently top 5 or 6 (was 6 but not sure if they did or will change cause pac 12). With the top teams the ACC should have bid yearly. Lose fsu/clemson/miami/etc the ACC might be viewed by people (voters/committee) like current G5 so teams may have to be perfect to get bid.
Auto bids for the Top 5 Conference Champs. These will usually be the P4 champs + a G5. Now, if 8-4 Pitt wins the ACCCG, they may not get the auto bid if like Liberty is 13-0 out of CUSA and Tulane is 12-1 out of the American. So in that case, it would be SEC, B10, B12, CUSA, American + 7 at-large.
I've said this before but the ACC's hope for survival is this:
1. FSU loses in court and GOR holds.
2. B12's new TV deal in 5 years sucks
3. ACC, with a better TV deal (and own network) than B12 adds some B12 schools. Heck maybe a lot of B12 schools in anticipation that FSU and others will leave around 2036.
So in 2036 when FSU, Clem, UNC, UVa, and lets even say Miami, VT, Duke, and NC State leave, the ACC would look something like this
BC
UConn
Syr
Pitt
WVU
Cincy
Lou
Wake
GT
UCF
USF
Kansas
Oklahoma State
TT
Baylor
SMU
Arizona
Arizona St
Utah
BYU
Cal
Stan
Not sure on TCU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas St, Oregon St, Wash St, Colorado St
Colorado will be in the B10 or SEC
1. FSU loses in court and GOR holds.
2. B12's new TV deal in 5 years sucks
3. ACC, with a better TV deal (and own network) than B12 adds some B12 schools. Heck maybe a lot of B12 schools in anticipation that FSU and others will leave around 2036.
So in 2036 when FSU, Clem, UNC, UVa, and lets even say Miami, VT, Duke, and NC State leave, the ACC would look something like this
BC
UConn
Syr
Pitt
WVU
Cincy
Lou
Wake
GT
UCF
USF
Kansas
Oklahoma State
TT
Baylor
SMU
Arizona
Arizona St
Utah
BYU
Cal
Stan
Not sure on TCU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas St, Oregon St, Wash St, Colorado St
Colorado will be in the B10 or SEC
That's basically the B12/ACC merger solution, which isn't exactly ACC surviving. I'd still prefer separate vs one big leftover unless way more money or access.
I'll be honest, any conference with a GOR wants in on this fight. Doesn't matter if the B1G wants FSU. They sure don't want schools to have precedent to break a GOR. Seems crazy that someone would want to leave the B1G but it also seemed crazy to pay players and have west coast schools playing in eastern conferences.
I don’t think the Exit Fee is really the issue. FSU would probably gladly pay the exit fee.
The GOR was adopted precisely because the exit fee didn’t seem to be enough of a deterrent.
Agreed - but acc without unc Miami Clemson fsu wouldn’t carry clout. If a champ finished worse than 12-1 they’d be at risk of not getting in was my point. Lose 0-1 and the acc will be in yearly. Lise those 4 and any other and teams would need to pretty much run table to get a conference champ bid.
The ACC in its current form wont survive past 2036. There will be 1 league of leftovers. What is unknown is if it will be the ACC adding the B12 leftovers or the B12 adding the ACC leftovers. The B12 has so much garbage and duplicate markets that I'd prefer the ACC added the best programs from the B12. Basically let ESPN tell them who makes them the most money. Like you dont need BYU and Utah. Or Kansas and Kansas State. Or SMU and TCU. Maybe not Arizona and Arizona State though the Tucson metro area in and of itself has over 1 million people. And of course ASU is Phoenix.
Or doesn’t want there to be a fight because of the precedent.
And we also don't know what an individual school may have to forfeit to break out of the TV deal. I honestly believe that is where the problem is at because ESPN isn't going to just yield to Fox so FSU can go play in Minnesota every November.
All that matters moving forward is which conference is more attractive to the networks (now, five years from now, or in 13 years). And, with the turmoil in the ACC, there is no doubt the B12 is more stable and attractive. There are going to be three "power" conferences and with the recent addition of the 4 corner schools from the PAC12 (plus BYU, which has a very large fan base), the B12 will continue to have a better TV contract than the ACC.
That locked-in contract you point to with the ACC is NOT a benefit. It is now a certainty that at least FSU & Clemson will be gone at some point between now and 2036. In five years (assuming FSU & Clemson are still around....unlikely), they will still be locked into that shitty contract and will still be bitching that they want out. But, for some reason you think that is going to make the ACC more appealing than the B12. You're dreaming.
We just saw FSU get punked so, what clout? You're not wrong but it's not like any other conference is going to carry much clout outside of the B1G and SEC.
Lets say that they lost the 4 teams you mentioned. If the ACC Champ goes 11-2, I dont think 2 G5 champs get in over them. Maybe if they both go undefeated. Basically, a G5 champ would have to be 2 games better. Liberty at 12-1 isnt getting in over VT at 11-2 for example. Now if VT goes 10-3 and Liberty goes 13-0 and JMU goes 13-0 then ok, maybe those 2 get in over VT.
You are confusing why the B12 is stable. Its because it doesnt have any brands left that anyone wants. That isnt a good thing. It means the teams arent valuable. In 5 years, with every sports property going to market, its extremely possible that the new B12 contract will be similar to what the P12 was offered (with big brands Oregon and Washington BTW). Maybe they will get a better TV deal than the ACC. We will see. But you guys completely ignore the fact that the Big 12 may get "Pac 12'd" by the networks. The Pac 12 actually had more to sell than the current Big 12. To compare:
Both the B12 and P12 had AZ, ASU, Colorado, Utah
P12 had Ore and Wash. The best 2 B12 brands may be OK St and Texas Tech
Cal/Stan vs Baylor/TCU (big market teams no one cares about)
KSt/BYU vs Oregon St/Washington St (duplicate market teams)
Is Kansas, Iowa St, Houston, WVU, Cincy, and UCF really worth that much more. 4 of those schools were in the Big East (or under their new name) not long ago
Let me ask you a question. What part of the B12's TV deal is worse than the ACC's TV deal don't you understand?
I know you're subject to B12 twitter propaganda who consistently misrepresents ACC TV revenue, and it's projections. I don't know why you even come here with these ridiculous takes. The B12 is a conference of also rans. If, and notice it's still an if because nobody has left, the ACC loses it's marquee programs they'll also be a conference of also rans. There won't be any difference, and neither will be a power conference.
You go find me ONE published article that shows the annual per team payouts for the ACC now being north of what the B12 teams are making. You won't find one....
This is where they say "3rd tier rights," which actually they don't get to keep anymore, not that they were worth anything anyway.
You know nothing about the Disney/Reedy Creek situation here in Florida. A lot of shady deals by Disney while they illegally controlled a government entity.
WVU got a 42 million dollar payout from the Big 12 and Pitt received 41 million dollars from the ACC. Factor in costs and expenses for travel and convenience of playing schools in closer proximity. Pitt is further ahead at the end of the day.
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Disney is its own county and it is primarily responsible for the growth of Central Florida. It should get special considerations. They are more than a company. They are a county.
Big 12 Media Deal To Pay Schools Average of $31.6M Each Year
The average annual per-school value for the Big 12 and ACC media rights deals is comparable, a source told Front Office Sports.
frontofficesports.com
There is another one I read when it came out that said specifically that ESPN made sure that the Big 12 deal wont make more than the ACC. Cant find that one though but this basically says the same thing.
Also, the ACC's will go up by adding cable subscribers in Dallas and the Bay Area. Not to mention SMU isnt taking any TV money so that's $30 some million back into the ACC pot. And Cal/Stan arent getting full shares. So a school like Pitt will get about $5 million more per year from reduced Cal/Stan/SMU shares IN ADDITION to cable subscribers in the new markets.
Update: here is that article
Pac-12 feeling "relief" after Big 12 new media rights deals, "optimistic" about exceeding them
The Big 12’s new media rights deals with ESPN and Fox, which will pay a reported $380 million per season (roughly $31.7 million per school), means that all eyes are now pivoting to the Pac-12. Will the conference be able to score an acceptable batch of rights deals, or will they fall short...
awfulannouncing.com
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They've been coming here preaching the ACC's demise since Pitt joined.
i think (until teams defect from ACC or B12) that the p4 will always be in. Especially with no divisions to prevent a 7-5 team from crashing party.
Not sure. it will depend on not only champ but other teams. If only 1-2 are ranked maybe not. If Pitt/Lou/Nc state all play to potential (top 25) than yeah but if 2 or all 3 crater and nobody else fills void then maybe not. It will be as much about depth and the ACC without the top 4 would have a small margin for error as only really 4-5 teams would be able to sustain success (Pitt/Lou/Nc St/VT and perhaps UVA). Nobody else has shown the willingness and ability to do it. Even most of those teams have had up/down trends or only were up for small window(VT for about 10-15 yrs). If most are down and no other team rises it could be tough.
We're talking future TV contract payout, not your previous conference distribution (which includes TX and Ok).
None of you B12 fanboys know how to calculate. You're locked in TV contract that's paying you what the ACC is making right now in TV money. The ACC Network is split 50/50 with the ESPN, and is continuing to grow revenue. That's the difference y'all can't seem to cipher.
Plus their current contract still has Texas and ou factored in. We’ll know better in about 2 years
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