Not about what the end result will be — I think we all know what the end result will be just more about how you spend time and thoughts between now and end of the year.
Jacksonville Game & Other Dribbles ...
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Not about what the end result will be — I think we all know what the end result will be just more about how you spend time and thoughts between now and end of the year.
Read the posts today. There is universal agreement Capel has to go at years end?
That is not what I am seeing/reading.
I doubt there would be this much activity if the result is a board accepted given.
I think there’s a chance he is back but it’s a narrow window and don’t think they can achieve all of them.
None of the core transfer - John / Femi / Horton / Burton
Win 5 or more ACC games
Have HS recruits committed
Have attendance improve
No.
For 2 primary reasons, and by all means, anyone can debate me on this.
1) Defense has been the backbone of this program for 2 decades and this defense is currently playing well. I need to see more games to see if our defense is actually as good or near as good as the last 6 games have shown. If it continues throughout the entire season and we win a decent number of acc games, I probably want Capel back if all the key players return.
2) Take a deep dive into our past history of the last 20 years. A very large chunk of our star players had their breakout year in their 3rd year in the program. Brandin Knight, Carl Krauser, Brad Wanamaker, Lamar Patterson, Sam Young, Aaron Gray, Gilbert Brown was the 4th year, the list goes on and on. John Hugley is probably going to be very good next year and I think Femi is only going to get better. And Femi, Horton, Burton, etc.. all coming back, there are pieces there to make a run as long as this current group shows growth from now until the end of the year. So many people forget what players like Sam Young looked like as a freshmen in comparison to what he looked like as a junior. And the same goes for all the other guys I listed above from Knight to Krauser to Troutman to Wanamaker. All these guys broke out in their third season at Pitt.
1) We are in Year 4 of the Capel Era
2) We are going to lose guys. The transfer portal has changed the game.
3) We have ZERO recruits.
Krauser's offensive rating as a sophomore, junior and senior: 106.3, 106.0, 104.5
Troutman's offensive rating as a sophomore, junior and senior: 122.9, 114.0, 118.5
That doesn't seem like their third years were any sort of breakouts.
Among the other guy's you mentioned,
Patterson's offensive rating as a sophomore, junior and senior: 116.0, 110.8, 112.7
Gray's offensive rating as a sophomore and junior: 105.2, 105.3
Brown's offensive ratings in his four years: 115.8, 105.5, 110.9, 116.1
Doesn't seem like any of those guy's waited until their third year to break out either.
I think the real problem there is that none of those guys in any of those years had offensive ratings in the coveted 95-100 range that indicates future stardom.
Its is not going to be like last year any more with regards to the transfer portal. There were 2000 players in the transfer portal. You are allowed to transfer 1 time only without having to sit out again. You dont get to transfer all over the place every single year. You get 1 chance to do it. And something like 40% of all players were in the portal last year.
That means if Burton wants to transfer he has to sit out. Or Burton could quit college basketball.
1) Those teams were built on defense first, not offense.
2) The usage rates. Star players carried the load. See Ashton Gibbs who couldnt carry the load as a senior without Wanamaker on his team.
3) Carl Krauser went from 6 points per game to 15 points per game on a team that was offensively challenged. That is the very definition of breaking out.
With all due respect, any connection to the players and the program of Howland/Dixon is severed and has no bearing or predictive nature to anything happening now in any way.
Otherwise, players getting better over time is certainly not something that's just a Pitt thing anyway.
Toney broke out in his 3rd year in the program under Capel. His points, rebounds, and assist production along with his defense all improved. He also carried the team in a number of games his junior season on both ends of the floor.
Okay - paint the picture as to how Capel takes Pitt to the NCAA tournament next year. We have 0 recruits right now and lose Mo for sure.
Right ... many players get better as they get older. I really don't know where you are trying to go with this.
Carl Krauser went from using 26.4% of the possessions as a sophomore all the way up to using 27.4% of the possessions as a senior. He took 14 more shots as a senior than a sophomore, but he shot 24 more foul shots as a sophomore than as a senior. He averaged 15.4 ppg as a sophomore and 15.0 ppg as a senior.
He didn't break out as a junior, he broke out as a sophomore. Just like all those other guys I posted about.
Carl Krauser redshirted, Joe. He broke out in his 3rd year in college.
He said it before. He thinks that if we have several sophomores with offensive ratings between 95 and 100 that it will bode really well for the future because obviously they will keep getting better, as certain of our players have in the past.
Ignoring the fact that most of those guys were far better than that as sophomores and that there have also certainly been guys who simply never got much better (if at all) across their four years.
He still redshirted. As did Troutman, Gilbert Brown, and a ton of other players in the past.
Its ironic too. Someone said on here recently the redshirt was dead. Bill Self is doing that with one of our former targets right now with Kyle Cuffe. Go figure, a top 100 player, redshirting.
So next year just cancel the season and have everyone redshirt for the year. Problem solved!
Here is the trajectory of Lamar Patterson for example
ORTG by year
84- redshirted after 11 games
102
116
Points per game by year
2
2.6
9.6
rebounds per game
1
2
5
assists per game
.4
1.3
3.6
This is the perfect example to anyone that thinks Will Jeffress cannot improve, especially because, Jeffress started college at 17 years old. Classic 3rd year breakout player by Patterson.
Well, we cant do that obviously.
However, we can be the beneficiary of the covid year, because last year did not count towards anyone's eligibility.
So that means Hugley, Jeffress, and Femi are basically freshmen and Horton is still a sophomore because last year does not count.
This only works to our advantage if these players stay in the program and improve. But its for sure an advantage if they stay in the program because the covid year is just like a redshirt year.
But players can stay and improve in every other program in the country. I’m not following any point you are trying to make at all unfortunately.
If I had to guess, he is proposing a return to Pitt’s Big East identity.
Older, stronger, more experienced.
Tougher, with a focus on defense, rebounding and limiting turnovers.
Recruit at an attainable level not above.
Less talented and skilled, but all the above makes up for it.
Unfortunately he is basing all of the above on his personal impression that Coach Capel believes in winning with defense,
I personally believe Capel has resorted to that only because he has no choice. I believe given his druthers Coach Capel coaches like he is coaching Duke. (Which includes none of the above)
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The point that Im making is, our top 2 scorers currently are in their 2nd year of college (John and Femi). Will is 5th on the team in scoring in his 2nd year of college as a true 18 year old kid. And Horton should be playing his 3rd college season right now (potential breakout year), but is currently suspended and cant play.
The 3rd college year for a lot of our star players in the past was their actual breakout year in college (redshirt year would be year 1). Our scoring right now is being done by 2 true sophmores with zero prior redshirt year. In other words, there is a lot of time left for these younger players to improve a lot on the offensive side of the basketball and get better and that includes Ithiel Horton who is still young as a college player.
It took many of our star players years to become good offensive players in the past whether that was on Capel's team, Howland's team, or Dixons team.
So you make an entire point about redshirting and third year of college then ignore last year was Horton’s 3rd year of college because he redshirted? This is why people don’t take what you say seriously. You change your narratives/goalposts to fit what fits your viewpoint.
just pointing this out, I really don’t care to debate about it.
That is a good thing for it may limit the number of our players that transfer out but then it is also a bad thing cause the number of viable transfer ins will be limited.
I believe that most of these miserable posters who are always ragging on the team are the same guys who whined about Dixon and inspired Barnes to demonstrate his knowledge. They got rid of Dixon and got Stallings, and the program died. When DT's efforts to find a middle ground are getting "likes" from bballinsider and gary and pittjas, the Board has entered a surreal dimension. The difference is that DT continues to look for something positive for balance. Vader is balanced, too, giving out sourced ideas that can perhaps inspire a bit of hope and interest. Then a bunch of posters line up to argue with him. What are you other guys arguing about? You belong in sports bars cussing out the players: "You POS! Can't you make a shot?!" We have all heard their type. In the context of this discussion of Capel and the team, it is clear to me that these haters' expections of Pitt's getting targeted recruits or potential coaches are based on their own model of the world, which is that it is supposed to resemble Golden Corral. I think that's probably where Special Sauce sourced his name.
You purposefully ignore all context with your numbers though. Of course players are going to improve as they got older.
But they often used to improve so much for Pitt because it was their first real chance at actually being impact players as they were previously small role players on good teams.
Jeffress is playing 30 minutes per game right now. Against the non conference portion of the schedule. Why not compare his numbers to say freshman Trey/X/Toney? Who were also young kids getting big minutes on a bad ACC team.
Toney for example, as a raw young wing who later struggled to finish in ACC play, had 5 games in double figures in the non conference portion of the schedule.
Jeffress hasn’t scored 10 or more points in any game this year. Playing the likes of UMBC, The Citadel, etc. And playing 30 mpg.
And the intent of my post isn’t to bash Jeffress. Just to show how your posts consistently lack context. I appreciate the numbers as a math guy… but you use them without proper context.
What happened 10-15 years ago is pretty irrelevant because the way rosters worked was so much different. Future NBA players like Wanamaker and Patterson waited their turn which just isn’t happening today. Also not really fair comparing stats of players on very good teams to players on terrible teams. All bad teams end up with somebody who scores and rebounds.
Players not willing to wait around to get pt should be a benefit for a school like Pitt . JC just like JD is in a lot of kids top five only to lose them to other programs. Not all these kids end up in situations that work for them and that’s an area he needs to exploit if he continues to be the coach next season .
My recollections of Toney was that well into his sophomore yr was that he was terrible at shooting the ball . Not everyone develops at the same pace . What none of us know is how Jeffress shoots in practice and when it will transfer to actual games .
What's crazy to me is some people have these players entire college careers mapped out.
Do you remember what Audiese Toney's first 11 games of his sophomore year looked like which is where we are right now with the core group of Femi, Hugley, and Jeffress?
This was Toney's 2nd year in the program and his first 11 games that year.
5.4ppg
4.7 rpg
1 assist per game
37% FG %
This is how Toney finished the season after ACC play in the same exact sophomore season in his 2nd year.
9.5ppg
4.8rpg
1.2 apg
46% FG %
According to a certain group on here, Toney's stats should have crashed and burned when we went into ACC play. The complete opposite happened, Toney' stats improved across the board in ACC play because he improved as a young player. The ACC didnt stop Toney from getting better. He got better with more experience and confidence.
Not all cases are going to be like this. But it is crazy how some people think players like Femi or Will have zero chance of improving as the season goes on. A few more 28 point performances from Femi, and his stats are going to look a lot different very quickly.
The team is improving. It is tbd by how much between now and seasons end.
Toney shot 24% from deep as a Freshman.
33% as a Sophomore.
Comparing Will to Toney makes zero sense. They have two totally different skill sets. We can talk about how Will is getting 30 mpg and not doing much on offense, but what's his usage rate in this offense compared to Toney's?
Toney was way more on ball than Will. Toney had a guard skill set but was asked to play forward out of necessity.
Will is a forward skill set asked to play guard/wing.
Will played the post a ton in HS. Obviously kids who have guard skill sets will contribute quicker offensively than others. Will came to Pitt with zero guard skills. None. He should be a Freshman that's redshirting this year. Taking him last year meant it's a massive developmental project. No top 125 kid that's 17 years old, that's a forward!, should be expected to contribute offensively this early on. It's a ridiculous ask.
33% as a Sophomore.
Comparing Will to Toney makes zero sense. They have two totally different skill sets. We can talk about how Will is getting 30 mpg and not doing much on offense, but what's his usage rate in this offense compared to Toney's?
Toney was way more on ball than Will. Toney had a guard skill set but was asked to play forward out of necessity.
Will is a forward skill set asked to play guard/wing.
Will played the post a ton in HS. Obviously kids who have guard skill sets will contribute quicker offensively than others. Will came to Pitt with zero guard skills. None. He should be a Freshman that's redshirting this year. Taking him last year meant it's a massive developmental project. No top 125 kid that's 17 years old, that's a forward!, should be expected to contribute offensively this early on. It's a ridiculous ask.
And who else? Besides Champ. Everyone else didn’t improve or left the program. Player development and relationships have not been good. I agree about Howland and Dixon. Look at how many Big East Improved awards we got. Those guys knew how to develop players.
I think your problem is you have too small a sample size of current players. You cite Toney and I could cite Champ. But there is zero evidence any other players have developed at all or will develop to the point we will be a tourney team soon. You can’t just say they will improve with age. There are players like X and Trey who regressed. And Femi regressed so far from last year. And please please don’t use Dixon’s players as data points to support Capel. Dixon could actually coach.
According to Matt, there is real noise Jeffress will not return next year.
The ACC had 9 NCAAT teams and 3 NIT teams. It was one of the best years ever for the league
He cant play at this level. He would be a nice 7-8 PPG 4th/5th starter at RMU.
I’ve alluded for hearing similar rumblings without naming him. Do you think one of the smartest families around is gonna pin their son’s future on Capel with the progress they’ve seen? I’m sure they’ll look at all options.
If I'm Jeffress, I try to transfer to an Ivy League school. He can compete there and get a great education.
For me, him transferring doesn't matter at all. If we can keep Hugley, Femi, Burton, Horton, and Sibande, I wouldn't mind 1 more year
I hope things work out here for him, but an Ivy League school would be the way to go for him since academics are a priority.
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