Easily. 16-2 or better. The SWAC is terrible. Its slightly better than the PSAC. Missouri has legit P6 players. Caleb Grill was a key player on Iowa State before he got kicked off. Shawn East an upper A10 player. Nick Honor was a decent player for Clemson. The 8 foot guy was a key player on good ORU teams. They would run through that league. This isnt 0-19 Stallings. Not even close. They'd beat that Pitt team by 20-30.
NET Rankings updated…
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Easily. 16-2 or better. The SWAC is terrible. Its slightly better than the PSAC. Missouri has legit P6 players. Caleb Grill was a key player on Iowa State before he got kicked off. Shawn East an upper A10 player. Nick Honor was a decent player for Clemson. The 8 foot guy was a key player on good ORU teams. They would run through that league. This isnt 0-19 Stallings. Not even close. They'd beat that Pitt team by 20-30.
No. I don't understand the same point about a guy who has won 700 + games, 2 titles, multiple final fours and had 3 of the 4 most coveted jobs in basketball? It's not even remotely comparable. That's like comparing Livvy Dunne to Melissa McCarthy
You are correct. Mizzou would win the league and probably not lose a league game unless it was a fluke.
They did lose to Jackson State but its early season and Mizzou was probably sleeping. Tell them they are in the SWAC and they play those games in Jan/Feb, they could very well go 18-0. I said 16-2 because they did lose a game to Jackson State but that doesn't happen if its a league game I dont think. People dont understand how bad low major basketball is.
Agree that Q4 is too large, and have not only said so this year I said so last year as well.
That does not change the fact that Missouri stinks this year. It does not change the fact that Loyola stunk last year. People thinking that they were going to be decent before the season started doesn't change those facts.
Pitt’s NET jumps from 54 to 47 with the blowout win over Louisville. I was hoping it would jump about 5-7 spots and that’s exactly what happened. That was very important winning that game by almost 30 points last night as opposed to winning by just 10-15 let’s say. This is the best spot Pitt has been in needless to say all year and their NET has actually jumped 35 spots in this 7-1 stretch they have been on when it was at 82 and now it’s at 47 since I created this thread a month ago after the win at Duke. Huge huge huge game at Wake on Tuesday night. Pitt’s chances of making the NCAA tournament I think go up to about 80-85 percent I feel if they win at Wake assuming they have no major slip ups in any of their remaining 3 home games with VT, FSU, and NC State.
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I guess you gotta play the game with this NET. It used to be if you rolled a team —people know you crushed them even if you put in walk ons for 3 minutes and the win went from 20 to 12.
Side note though - still love the enthusiasm for both Blake getting 40 and bench players scoring. I know team chemistry only gets you so far, but it’s a force multiplier for a good team.
Side note though - still love the enthusiasm for both Blake getting 40 and bench players scoring. I know team chemistry only gets you so far, but it’s a force multiplier for a good team.
One common theme in these posts after each Pitt game. Our next game is always HUGE.
I guess that means all the remaining games are huge. Taking the opponent out of it, we can only afford 1 more loss. Depending on who the W’s and L’s come against, we can afford 2 more L’s.
I guess that means all the remaining games are huge. Taking the opponent out of it, we can only afford 1 more loss. Depending on who the W’s and L’s come against, we can afford 2 more L’s.
I would be shocked if the law of averages doesn't catch up with us at some point. Like, are we really 13-2 to end the season good? Been a hell of a run, but the hole we dug ourselves in just sucks. I'm hoping 5-2 and a tournament win is good enough.
I think they are good enough to go 5-1 in these last 6 games. I don’t think they will win all 3 road games at Wake, Clemson and at BC but I don’t see any worse then 4-2 in these last 6 which would put them at 21-10 overall and 12-8 in the ACC and a pretty damn good overall resume to be make the NCAA Tournament.
It starts with Blake Hinson. Our offensive efficiency the last 8 games in a row is just outside the National Top 10. Its been that good recently.
And whoever lit the fire under Fede's ass needs to keep lighting that fire for Fede to get it done on the glass and on defense. He has also been a pretty substantial turnaround during this run. We can't have the light switch go back off and he turns into Terrell Brown again. Someone should get this guy some type of NIL deal that involves defensive rebounding. The more he rebounds, the more money he gets.
It certainly *can* be done, but it's tough to do in basketball, when anybody can beat anybody and matchups mean so much. Like, Wake will be vying for its tournament lives and I don't think it'll be a simple as just thwarting their plans with Jeffres this time. Then I think we're pretty evenly matched with NC State and Clemson, but even FSU, VT, and BC won't just be gimme. Cold shooting night, anything can happen. I know I'm not breaking any ground with that. I'm hoping 4-2 in any combination would be good enough - even if it means needing one win in the ACCT.
I think if somebody would have told anybody on this board about 5 weeks ago after Syracuse beat Pitt at home by 11 they would need to probably go 4-2 in their last 6 games to make the NCCA tournament we all would have signed in blood for that. You’re absolutely right anything can happen these last 6 games but I feel pretty good about this Pitt team staying focused and doing enough to get into the field of 68 when it’s announced a month from today.
Hmmm, so what you are saying is that as we played better our NET ranking improved.
That sounds eerie similar to something that someone here has been saying all along.
Play better, NET goes up. That's it. That's the "secret".
NET drops 9 from 47 to 56 which is actually not as bad as I thought it was gonna be. I was expecting it to maybe be around 61-62 after losing by 33 points. So overall not a terrible drop in the NET considering how bad that loss actually looked. There will be two huge opportunities to get their NET up to where it was yesterday and stay right on the bubble in the next 6 days or so with these games against Virginia Tech at home on Saturday and at Clemson next week.
Capel you sly dog. Tanked the Wake game on purpose to get us another Q1 win. Unfortunately, we also lost a Q1 win last night as NC State dropped from 75 to 80. But Syracuse is up to 84 so 9 away from getting rid of a Q3 loss, which would be huge.
Only dropping 9 is great news. Wake going up 14 for winning a home game against a bubble team is the biggest indictment against NET as there can ever be. I watched little of Boise/SJSU last night and it was a hard watch. Like watching a JV game after watching the varsity. Boise stinks. But they beat 8-18 SJSU by 30 so they moved up to 35 from 42. What a terrible system we have. America deserves better.
NET Rankings go up 11 spots from 57 to 46 which I am surprised they went up that much. That big 2nd half against VT yesterday was huge and winning by 15 against a high Quad 2 team makes a difference. That win at this point at least makes up for the Wake blowout on Tuesday as Pitt is right back where they were in the NET last week before the Wake loss. So this is a huge deal for Pitt’s tourney chances moving forward especially if they beat Clemson on Tuesday night.
Amazing huh? Beating a decent team pretty easily moves you up. What a terrible system the NET is, actually awards you when you play well. How can anyone like this?
NET only goes up 5 from 49 to 44. Need another big win against Florida State now on Tuesday. I still think Pitt will remain within the next 4 out in a lot of the brackets at maybe the 2nd team or in some of the brackets the 1st team of the next four out teams on the list. They are close to being among the first four out last four in I feel as well. I still think if they win the last 2 they will be in the tournament based on their 7 road wins and overall body of work having won 11 of their 14 games the last 7 weeks. That can’t just be overlooked it will mean something and it will ultimately lead to Pitt getting in the NCAA Tournament because of it.
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Wake also dropped to 31, taking away a Q1 win, but GT rose to 134, giving them another Q2.
Yea I noticed that as well. Wake should be able to get their NET back up over 30 if they win out the last 2 games. Pitt will also be the 4 seed and not play until Thursday in the ACC tournament if they win out the last 2 games with FSU and NC State, Clemson beats Syracuse on Tuesday night and Wake Forest beats Clemson at home next Saturday. That is a pretty good scenario set up this week for Pitt to get that double bye and one we all would have signed up in blood for about 6 or 7 weeks ago when this team was 1-5 in the conference and near last place.
Still good overall. We should hit the NET top 40 prior to the conference tournament if we take care of business, even if a few quad wins shuffle around.
Remember the highest NET teams ever to not make the tournament from the ACC were 2019 NC State (NET: 33) and 2019 Clemson (35), but they were both 9-9 in conference.
Remember the highest NET teams ever to not make the tournament from the ACC were 2019 NC State (NET: 33) and 2019 Clemson (35), but they were both 9-9 in conference.
The question is that does a double bye hurt with perception of record (taking away another possible win), or would it be moot because the team played would be weaker?
Asking somewhat rhetorically, because it’s subjective based on the committee. I’d have to think having a double bye in a major conference would help, but so would seeing (say) 23 wins versus 22.
Asking somewhat rhetorically, because it’s subjective based on the committee. I’d have to think having a double bye in a major conference would help, but so would seeing (say) 23 wins versus 22.
You guys keep assuming that everything is going to play out as chalk in the ACC Tournament, and that's not necessarily the case.
That said, if we are the 5th or 6th seed, it would seem that first round matchup could only hurt us. Those types of wins don't seem to help much. So I'll take my chances with the double bye.
What's not encouraging to me is that Clemson got the double bye last season and proceeded to pound the #6 team in their first game, yet they still got omitted. That in conjunction with us losing one of our Q1 wins (Wake) for the time being, NC State likely remaining Q2 now (perhaps, ironically, unless they beat us in the last game), and what has been called a stronger bubble... we need a lot of help, it seems.
I’d take that double bye. If we play Wednesday that could be a play out game and not much to gain… but everything to lose
Exactly. Kind of what happened to Wake two years ago.
Of course a lower seed could still get to the double bye round, but you're guaranteed to play one if you only get a single bye.
I still think Pitt is in if they win the last 2 games and don’t get blown out in that 2nd game of the ACC Tourney if they don’t have the double bye or their first game of the ACC Tourney if they do have the double bye. A NET near 40 possibly high 30’s, 7 road wins, finishing in the top 4 in a power conference with two teams in the top 10, and winning 11 of their last 14 games after a 1-5 conference start passes the eye test for me and it should for a lot of the people in the committee. Pitt’s metrics are still very good too right now and if they stay where they are now and even improve a little bit they are gonna be in the NCAA Tournament.
The bubble is huge this year. Not a lot of difference (NET rating, Quad 1-2 wins) between the last 8 teams in and the next 12 out in most of the bracketology websites. The reason I think Pitt will get picked is because of two things above their metrics. They have won a lot on the road. They have one of the best road records in the country. And they have won 11 of their last 14 with no head scratching losses. Those are two metrics not found in NET that still matters to the committee.
Well- the committee has been very public about true road wins being every important- but also ooc sos.
Hopefully strong metrics with our top among power teams true road wins is more important than our pretty abysmal ooc sos.
The shame is that having 4 P5 schools in your OOC schedule should give you some metric cred. Yet as luck would have it, 3 of them are historically bad and all in the same year (WVU, OSU and Missouri). That’s some bad karma working against you. Then on top of it, Scotty Barnes sits on the selection committee, and I don’t see him helping us.
Yea I agree with this. The loss at Miami on January 27th while it doesn’t look all that great now seeing how bad Miami has fallen off the past 5-6 weeks it wasn’t a terrible loss at the time seeing Miami was playing a lot better and they only lost the game by 4 points. So if you take out the 33 point debacle at Wake two weeks ago Pitt has only lost two other games in the past 6-7 weeks by a combined 11 points. Like you also pointed out they have no head scratching losses or bad bad losses recently. The two Syracuse losses aren’t great but they aren’t horrific either and the Missouri loss which is by far their worst loss of the season happened over 3 months ago in late November.
The committee as you said looks at road wins and how you are playing in the last 6-8 weeks of the season going into the NCAA tournament and if you look at both of those things Pitt passes the eye test with both with flying colors with 7 road wins and an 11-3 record in their last 14 games. It would be highway robbery if they aren’t in I feel at this point they have done enough.
BC closing on a 7-0 run cost us 1-2 spots. There's never been a team left out with a NET of 37 or better so we are getting close. Have to avoid the 7 seed. That's a nightmare. Toss-up game vs VT and then Duke or UNC. A 6 seed gives you BC or ND or GT and then Virginia. Need to win 2 to clinch it because the Syr/Clem loser will pick up a 9th loss. BTW, Syracuse only isnt in the NCAAT convo because their NET sucks because they won 5 Q4 games by a combined 60 points.
That did cross my mind last night when it was 90-58 and BC got those quick 7 points that I hope that didn’t cost us a couple spots in the NET. It’s ridiculous to even think of but that’s how it goes now. I’m with you had they won that game by 30 their NET today is probably between 40-42 instead of 44.
Yeah, I think that's fair to say.
Pounded LSU on a neutral court.
Pounded Oregon on a neutral court.
Home win against Pitt. Road win at Pitt.
Home win against NC State. Road win at NC State.
Home win against UNC.
Home win against VT.
20-10 (11-8).
I mean, that's not a great resume or something, but for them to not even really be in the conversation... odd. Feels like they deserve to have a NET higher than 84.
Agree you want it because a bad loss in that game would kill us.
So might a pedestrian performance as the 4 seed - but chances would be better.
Keep winning at it takes care of itself
I think this is a good post. But your comment about how we are playing the last 6-8 weeks is what prevents it from being a great post. The committee time and time again has stated that they don’t look at how a team is playing down the stretch. They look at the entire season as a whole.
Yeah, because of this, I think they go beyond strict cumulative analytics. I think they put some more emphasis of how teams have played the last 6 weeks. It seems hard to weight "body of work" in November vs February. That is Wisconsin vs Pitt. Which team would make a more attractive tourney team?
