... #288 and #339 according to Pomeroy. 
Then it's St. Louis ranked at #75. I expect a good game with the Bilikens.
Then it's St. Louis ranked at #75. I expect a good game with the Bilikens.
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- Thread starter DT_PITT
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Thank you again DT for bringing back your Dribbles! I always enjoy reading your postgame thoughts, keep up the good work!... #288 and #339 according to Pomeroy.
Then it's St. Louis ranked at #75. I expect a good game with the Bilikens.
Isn't Bilikens a cool name?... #288 and #339 according to Pomeroy.
Then it's St. Louis ranked at #75. I expect a good game with the Bilikens.
... #288 and #339 according to Pomeroy.
Then it's St. Louis ranked at #75. I expect a good game with the Bilikens.
Sagarin had Pitt (before the Troy game) at #95 and St. Louis at #116. Troy was Sagarin # 188 before our game.
Out of curiosity, where does Pomeroy have Pitt?
Yes. Unless you're a guy named Bill and that's what your girlfriend calls you.
Pitt -- #120
I've never truly understood the early season mathematical rankings. I know Sagarin has a point about 8 or so games into the season when he says his numbers are fully "CONNECTED" but I don't know how much validity he claims before that point.
I believe Ken Pomeroy once explained his early season process and why it's valid but I don't recall it.
... #288 and #339 according to Pomeroy.
Then it's St. Louis ranked at #75. I expect a good game with the Bilikens.
Me, too. Troy lost to St. Louis by 4. Troy was winning most of the game and St. Louis took the lead with just over 2:00 remaining.
Last I saw, game was supposed to tip at noon. I'll be at the game, so not sure on TV.
Saint Louis will be a good barometer given they are probably a middle of the pack (or better) A10 team. Games like St Louis and Duquesne give a good idea how we will fare against the other lower tier teams in the ACC.
I'm gonna have to figure this out since I'm going. Barclays Center site says 12:00 p.m.
(which is where I bought my tickets).
https://www.barclayscenter.com/events/detail/barclays-center-classic-2018
... #288 and #339 according to Pomeroy.
Then it's St. Louis ranked at #75. I expect a good game with the Bilikens.
The preseason #15 ACC team should not beat the preseason #1 A10 team.....but I think we can.
St Louis hasn't played like a pre-season A10 #1. They look pretty similar to Duquesne. Sagarin currently has them as his #127 team and #6 in Atlantic 10 (about 2-points better than Duquesne and about 2 points weaker than Pitt on a neutral site).
Pitt is now the Sagarin #13 ACC team barely ahead of BC #14 and Wake #15.
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Pomeroy forms his preseason rankings based on a school's historical performance (not sure how many years) plus their returning roster and any highly-rated freshmen. For Pitt last year, we were a bit overrated in his system because Pitt had been a respectable team before Stallings. The preference for preseason ratings vs actual results drops to zero at some point in mid-January.
This year he had Pitt at #138 on opening night and we've moved up to #120 based on the 3-0 start. I would have assumed #138 was a bit overrated since we finished at #227 last year.
Regardless, we're healthy favorites in the next two and underdogs vs SLU and Iowa. He's got us at 4-14 in the ACC but <50% odds to win in each individual game. That seems like a pretty reasonable estimate.
That does seem reasonable and somewhat similar to current Sagarin predictions. The only difference I see is Sagarin havs us a slight (2 point favorite) over SLU and losing to Iowa by only about the ~3 point Home Court Advantage since the game is at Iowa. I imagine both predict solid losses to WVU in Morgantown. Sagarin has us at #98 now (up from something in the low 100s to start). But the difference between teams in this range (~100 to ~140) is probably only about 2 points per game and within the range where the Home Court Advantage means more than the relative ranking of the teams.
So will I. Would be nice to meet you. Appreciate all of the great info provided this year.
Watched last 10 minutes tonight of the North Alabama vs St. Louis game. St Louis still not playing like a #1 in A10 team. They struggled to an 11 point win (up by single digits only until last 5-6 minutes) in a game they should have won by over 20. Their coach in a post game interview expressed a lot of frustration on how his team has been playing so far this season.
Teamrankings is another ranking site I follow. They have Saint Louis at 124 and Pitt at 112.
I seem to recall that Eddie Haskel banged a gal named MaryLou Bilikens one time after a Mayfield High homecoming dance back in the day...
After their unimpressive outiing vs North Alabama, SLU's Sagarin ranking slipped to #157 and Pitt would be favored by ~5 on the Barclay Center neutral site if we were playing today.
Also, Iowa has slipped to about 4 points weaker than Pitt (neutral site) so the road game there would currently be seen as a tossup with, perhaps, a slight (1 point or less) Pitt edge.
BC just leap frogged us for Sagarin #13 ACC so we are now #14 ACC. Wake remains #15 ACC (last).
I think this is a good example of why I think Sagarin ratings are kind of bs.
If you mean the last sentence about rankings at the bottom of the in the ACC, I totally agree. And,these bottom of the ACC rankings will probably flip again based on last night's games where BC's lost to IUPUI (Sagarin #251 team) at BC by 7 (a team they theoretically should have beaten by about 15).
To be clear, in agreeing, I am referring to the process of ranking of teams from #1 to # 300 and something here. I am not referring to the underlying strength rating that is used (adjusted for homecourt advantage) to predict what should be the scoring margin when two teams play. I think this is still a somewhat useful tool even this early in the season and it gets progressively better as pre-season over-rated team's numbers move down and pre-season under-rated team's numbers move up.
I think that is what is happening in the SLU vs Pitt situation. So far, Pitt is proving itself better than its pre-season guessed rating and SLU has been proving itself worse than its pre-season guessed rating.
There is one thing that will not change much for the better over the course of the season. That is the relative ranking (#1 to #300+) of similar strength teams in predicting which team should win a head-to-head match-up because the actual point separation between similarly rated teams is so small that home court plays a huge role in the expected outcome.
As an example--in the ratings prior to last night's games Pitt [Sagarin Overall] is #107 (neutral site). That means when the Sagarin 3.20 home court advantage is considered Pitt would be expected to "play like" the #73 team at home; but only like the #152 team when on the road.
Really? Sounds pretty racy for that show at that time. I realize they wouldn't have used the word "banged", but I'd be interested to know how they worded it.
Or did your adolescent fantasies help lead you to that conclusion?
". . these bottom of the ACC rankings will probably flip again based on last night's games where BC's lost to IUPUI (Sagarin #251 team) at BC by 7 (a team they theoretically should have beaten by about 15). "
That is exactly what did happen. The bottom of the ACC in Sagarins update after last night's games now looks like this:
# 67 N. Dame (79.62)
# 81 Pittsburgh (77.89)
# 94 GA Tech (76.64)
# 127 Wake F. (73.47)
# 253 B.C. (63.52)
Notice that, except for the Wake (which is close to it) and BC, the rating (not ranking) numbers are close enough that home court advantage should decide the winner with the national ranking number not predictive unless head-to-head would be on a neutral site.
Sagarin's computer does currently see Iowa as the worst team in the Big 10 and has them as #165 (70. 63) and Pitt as #81 (77.89) nationally or about 7 points better neutral court. I have not seen Iowa play so I have no idea if I believe those current numbers. A Pitt loss to Central Arkansas tonight would certainly flip things.
In any event, reality will be sorted out over the course of the season beginning tonight when Iowa plays Oregon and when we actually play them in the ACC-BIG challenge Nov. 27.
Still hard to say where things will stand when we play them--I think we are continuing to improve and may be even better than we are now when we play them on November 27. But it will be out first true road game so they should beat us at home as things stand today.
From what I saw of the second half of their game vs Oregon last night (watched after watching the Pitt game) I tend to believe Iowa may be underrated right now.
However, I also thought Oregon looked like they may be overrated and shouldn't be a top 25 team--at least not based on last night's play. However, it was one game which taken in isolation doesn't mean much.
From what I saw of the second half of their game vs Oregon last night (watched after watching the Pitt game) I tend to believe Iowa may be underrated right now.
However, I also thought Oregon looked like they may be overrated and shouldn't be a top 25 team--at least not based on last night's play. However, it was one game which taken in isolation doesn't mean much.
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