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Nicholls Game & Other Dribbles ...

I like the new attitude/stronger Brown too but he's still such a surprisingly bad rebounder considering. It's bizzare at times.
 
I wonder about Johnson. His body language is bad at times. There was that article about him being mire positive with Brown this year because last year, he would yell at him a lot I guess. Has he checked out mentally? He openly said people were telling him he's ready for the NBA and was going to leave early. He just doesn't seem right
He’s a hot dog...
 
The weak hands -
And bringing the ball waist high drive me crazy
The play where he grabbed a rebound then had it stolen was maddening.

But on the whole, we really need to extend credit where credit is due. He gave a winning performance today.

The same can’t be said for most of the rest of the Panthers.
 
And that’s fair

I thought brown stunk defensively for 25 minutes-
His demeanor just is flat
Wow. I thought Brown played good. As of now he's not physically dominating (and may never be). But through 2 games he's shown improvement over last year. Also, just because he doesn't wear his emotions on his sleeve doesn,t mean he doesn,t care. Finally, I would like to see the ball in the post more.
 
Just like someone said the other day and coach said yesterday day if they come flat and come in this game with a let down they could lose this game and they did! IMO
They were playing like they can turn that switch on at anytime but they played sloppy the whole game. SMH
I hope they learn from this and not underestimate any opponent again.
 
** Sometimes writing post game thoughts can be a great deal of fun. Other times it can be a somewhat painful. This time they are simple. We got our butts kicked today.

** We were the second best team on the court today. The other one played harder … played smarter … played better.

** So let’s get the positives out of the way. Ryan Murphy is for real. He’ll still make some mistakes and he made a few this day. But he’s a player.

** Terrell Brown was also very good. The Panthers almost rode his defense to the win. He was the difference maker on the run the Panthers made to cut the lead from 12 to 1.

** But that’s about it.

** We should give Nicholls some credit. That’s probably a much better team than we suspected going into this one. And they played well. But it’s not a team to whom we should lose.

** We lost because we just never played well. When you start out but getting kicked to the curb by a score of 9-1, it shows that the winning attitude was never there.

** For the entire first half, the defense was really terrible. Nicholls shot well because they had so many open looks.

** Mostly because of Terrell, the second half defense was better. But still never good enough.

** Our offense never looked all that good the entire game. We relied far too much on dribble penetration, and too often that led to turnovers instead of offense. In total, one might best describe our offense today as selfish.

** Someone else besides Ryan is going to become a reliable three point threat. Heck, anyone else simply hitting one three might have been enough for us to pull this one out.

** For me, the most troubling aspect of this game was the lack of leadership, especially down the stretch. It's something that either Trey or X should provide, but instead they really never did.

** I have no doubt that most of X and Trey's struggles had to do with trying to do too much. But both of them need to make better decisions than they did today.

** And both simply need to play and produce better than they did today. We hoped both players would take a step forward this year. Today it looked like they have taken a step back.

** The hope of course, is for all of our Panthers to learn from this on their way to being the best team they can be.

** I have no doubt that Coach Capel will help his team respond to this adversity and get better.

** But a loss like this one certainly brings forth the idea that the best this team can be is likely not in the NCAA tournament.
-I didn't see it, but listened to the whole game. Just sounded like a lack of energy, bad effort on D and on the boards and way too much dribbling on O.

-We now have some players to compliment X and Trey. Now they need to realize it, stop trying to do too much and let the game come to them.

-You are correct in that Nicholls played well, but they should not beat us.

-Trey and X are not leaders right now. Hopefully that changes.

-I loved Capel's post game thoughts. He is the right guy for the job.

-People in general overreact to just about everything that they see any more. We weren't as good as we looked the other day and we aren't as bad as we looked today. And although this game pretty much ruined my day, it's still way too early to make any judgements about NCAA, NIT or anything else.
 
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The play where he grabbed a rebound then had it stolen was maddening.

But on the whole, we really need to extend credit where credit is due. He gave a winning performance today.

The same can’t be said for most of the rest of the Panthers.

This is a reason I'd play Hamilton and Brown together more.
 
I thought we played our 2-3 defense way too much in that first half. First off we don’t run that particularly well. They didn’t have a dominant low post threat. Why leave ourselves exposed on the perimeter when that was clearly their best asset?

In the second half with brown in there more our man to man was much more effective IMO.

I don’t believe Murphy even came out in the second half. Had some tired legs down the stretch but who could blame him. Love the way he attacks the offensive glass, had a nice tip in. Capel needs to spell him some rest but when he’s literally the only true shooting and scoring threat I can see why he felt like he couldn’t take him out.

All in all a frustrating game. They will improve question is how quickly.

Bob Morris got clobbered by a pedestrian ND team yesterday. But I must admit with Tuesdays game being the super bowl for both them and their fans this year, and after what I saw yesterday, I do not feel good about it.
 
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Coming into the year we took for granted that our 3 sophomores would improve. We questioned whether: Brown would improve, Murphy would provide offense, and any freshman could contribute. These tertiary questions came out our way. Brown has looked good, not All-ACC good, but he took a step forward and he'll contribute and start more games than we expected. Murphy has been our best player and shot well. And at least Champagnie has done some nice things early on, despite not practicing full speed until recently.

All of my Nicholls State game analysis comes to this: X and Trey were bad. Not just they were cold, they made bad decisions. Trey took a couple long 3's, at least one without setting his feet. Those shots had no prayer. X dribbled into trouble a couple times. I don't think they're bad players, but they definitely played a bad game. Then there's Au'Diese. He's a good defender and rebounds well for his position. But he's limited on offense. Unclear if that combination can keep him playing 25-30 minutes a game given his new competition.

So if we were right about X, Trey and Au'Diese, we may still have a solid team. And if we were wrong, it'll be a long year. But I still imagine it's the former.
 
Coming into the year we took for granted that our 3 sophomores would improve. We questioned whether: Brown would improve, Murphy would provide offense, and any freshman could contribute. These tertiary questions came out our way. Brown has looked good, not All-ACC good, but he took a step forward and he'll contribute and start more games than we expected. Murphy has been our best player and shot well. And at least Champagnie has done some nice things early on, despite not practicing full speed until recently.

All of my Nicholls State game analysis comes to this: X and Trey were bad. Not just they were cold, they made bad decisions. Trey took a couple long 3's, at least one without setting his feet. Those shots had no prayer. X dribbled into trouble a couple times. I don't think they're bad players, but they definitely played a bad game. Then there's Au'Diese. He's a good defender and rebounds well for his position. But he's limited on offense. Unclear if that combination can keep him playing 25-30 minutes a game given his new competition.

So if we were right about X, Trey and Au'Diese, we may still have a solid team. And if we were wrong, it'll be a long year. But I still imagine it's the former.
Pretty wise stuff.
 
I thought we played our 2-3 defense way too much in that first half. First off we don’t run that particularly well. They didn’t have a dominant low post threat. Why leave ourselves exposed on the perimeter when that was clearly their best asset?

In the second half with brown in there more our man to man was much more effective IMO.

I don’t believe Murphy even came out in the second half. Had some tired legs down the stretch but who could blame him. Love the way he attacks the offensive glass, had a nice tip in. Capel needs to spell him some rest but when he’s literally the only true shooting and scoring threat I can see why he felt like he couldn’t take him out.

All in all a frustrating game. They will improve question is how quickly.

Bob Morris got clobbered by a pedestrian ND team yesterday. But I must admit with Tuesdays game being the super bowl for both them and their fans this year, and after what I saw yesterday, I do not feel good about it.
Even though we're don't have much of an inside game, outside shooters or dominant rebounders, we will be OK if we hold turnovers under 15. We can't turn the ball over with selfish play. We may not run plays or offense, but we do have to play smarter and less one on one (two). Pass the ball.
 
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Did not play team basketball. I sense some ruffled feathers with murphy coming in and getting a lot of attention. X and trey expected that to be their roles. They need to “grow up” as coach says and lose the ego and play to win. Then it will work out for everyone.

Brown playing better might have something to do with real competition for his job. He is crucial to the team now.

Drumgoole and Champagnie are talented, I think. Out freshman big man , couliby looked like he wasn’t ready yet. Looked weak in very limited minutes.
 
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The percentage of our shots that aren't either lay-ups or 3-point attempts was very small. We need someone to be able to hit a shot that isn't a lay-up or a 3-pointer. Julius mentioned today about anyone learning a pull-up jumper.
If you believe in analytics the shot selection that will yield the “most points per shots taken” is layups and threes. Avoiding mid range is a very key piece of the formula. You might be able to find a service that has this data and you should trust that first. But I’ve done the analysis myself one year charting all shots taken in the 2013 NCAA tourney in the sweet sixteen and Elite 8 games. What I found was....

- 3pt shots taken in the width of the lane (also referred to as top of the key) were successful 40% of the time yielding 1.2 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken in the width of the lane but inside the arc were successful 54.8% of the time yielding 1.1 points per shot taken. ** more on this later

- 3pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 26.1% of the time yielding 0.79 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 19.4% of the time yielding 0.39points per shot taken

**Although I regret I didn’t separate the distinction of true layups and shots taken midrange from 8ft out to the arc, it is not hard to conclude that a much higher percentage of made layups occur over 10 foot jumpers.

In addition, I’ve studied lots of shot charts from ACC games and this holds up in the neighborhood of 90% of games.
 
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Did not play team basketball. I sense some ruffled feathers with murphy coming in and getting a lot of attention. X and trey expected that to be their roles.

I get that sense unfortunately and it could also be why Trey is trying to hit a Home Run every time he touches it. Using another analogy from another sport, he needs to take the easy 5 yards instead of trying to cut it back to try to go for 70.
 
If you believe in analytics the shot selection that will yield the “most points per shots taken” is layups and threes. Avoiding mid range is a very key piece of the formula. You might be able to find a service that has this data and you should trust that first. But I’ve done the analysis myself one year charting all shots taken in the 2013 NCAA tourney in the sweet sixteen and Elite 8 games. What I found was....

- 3pt shots taken in the width of the lane (also referred to as top of the key) were successful 40% of the time yielding 1.2 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken in the width of the lane but inside the arc were successful 54.8% of the time yielding 1.1 points per shot taken. ** more on this later

- 3pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 26.1% of the time yielding 0.79 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 19.4% of the time yielding 0.39points per shot taken

**Although I regret I didn’t separate the distinction of true layups and shots taken midrange from 8ft out to the arc, it is not hard to conclude that a much higher percentage of made layups occur over 10 foot jumpers.

In addition, I’ve studied lots of shot charts from ACC games and this holds up in the neighborhood of 90% of games.

This is all well and good generic data. However, the data is not specific to a particular team's personnel makeup. As weak as Pitt's 3-point shooters (except Murphy and maybe eventually Drumgoole) are as compared to the ACC average, for Pitt's particular case that mid-range jumper to long layup stat probably doesn't apply very strongly in considering what should be a current Pitt shot selection process. Being able to make those in-between shots could possibly be a more efficient Pitt-specific approach to adopt in place of so many rejected layups and missed 3-balls. I say "could" rather than "would" or "should" because the emphasis from AAU ball on up is to not bother to teach mid-range skills so that results in few players today having those shots in their skill set--and Pitt players are probably not an exception to the rule.
 
The play where he grabbed a rebound then had it stolen was maddening.

But on the whole, we really need to extend credit where credit is due. He gave a winning performance today.

The same can’t be said for most of the rest of the Panthers.

If this is what we can consistently get out of TB this year, where do I sign up.
 
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That might be a bit too harsh ... simply because he doesn’t have a “firery disposition.”

He played really well defensively in the second half. He was moving all over the court.

Justin plays with a perceived energy, but he did a poor job defensively.

Agree. I noticed Justin had a few plays where Nicholls players absolutely blew by him to the basket. Not good. Need to move your feet and stay in front of that.
 
If you believe in analytics the shot selection that will yield the “most points per shots taken” is layups and threes. Avoiding mid range is a very key piece of the formula. You might be able to find a service that has this data and you should trust that first. But I’ve done the analysis myself one year charting all shots taken in the 2013 NCAA tourney in the sweet sixteen and Elite 8 games. What I found was....

- 3pt shots taken in the width of the lane (also referred to as top of the key) were successful 40% of the time yielding 1.2 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken in the width of the lane but inside the arc were successful 54.8% of the time yielding 1.1 points per shot taken. ** more on this later

- 3pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 26.1% of the time yielding 0.79 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 19.4% of the time yielding 0.39points per shot taken

**Although I regret I didn’t separate the distinction of true layups and shots taken midrange from 8ft out to the arc, it is not hard to conclude that a much higher percentage of made layups occur over 10 foot jumpers.

In addition, I’ve studied lots of shot charts from ACC games and this holds up in the neighborhood of 90% of games.

I just recently found this article, though I'm sure many have already seen it. It's from an interview the Marshall head coach gave in Pittsburgh after a tourney game. He notes: "The best shot in basketball is that corner 3. The next best shot in basketball is any other 3." And goes on to say that a post up is one of the worst shots on the court, followed by jumpers.

https://www.herald-dispatch.com/spo...cle_5bea0087-6724-5fb1-934e-2c3a746a1305.html

Also this article -- showing that in the NBA 3's are king, layups are queen, and mid-range jumpers are for jokers. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-mapping-shots-in-the-nba-changed-it-forever/.

I wouldn't say I'm an analytics devotee, but I think if you're blind to analytics you're at a disadvantage. People think the numbers don't tell the whole story, and that's fine as far as it goes. But human beings are not good decision makers. We have many biases, and the analytics help cut through those.
 
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If you believe in analytics the shot selection that will yield the “most points per shots taken” is layups and threes. Avoiding mid range is a very key piece of the formula. You might be able to find a service that has this data and you should trust that first. But I’ve done the analysis myself one year charting all shots taken in the 2013 NCAA tourney in the sweet sixteen and Elite 8 games. What I found was....

- 3pt shots taken in the width of the lane (also referred to as top of the key) were successful 40% of the time yielding 1.2 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken in the width of the lane but inside the arc were successful 54.8% of the time yielding 1.1 points per shot taken. ** more on this later

- 3pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 26.1% of the time yielding 0.79 points per shot taken

- 2pt shots taken outside of the width of the lane were successful 19.4% of the time yielding 0.39points per shot taken

**Although I regret I didn’t separate the distinction of true layups and shots taken midrange from 8ft out to the arc, it is not hard to conclude that a much higher percentage of made layups occur over 10 foot jumpers.

In addition, I’ve studied lots of shot charts from ACC games and this holds up in the neighborhood of 90% of games.
Yeah that's all good but any shot is better than driving into the bucket and committing a bad turnover. I'd take a controlled midrange miss over a turnover every time.
 
Yeah that's all good but any shot is better than driving into the bucket and committing a bad turnover. I'd take a controlled midrange miss over a turnover every time.

Correct. The stats can be misleading because while the layup is obviously a high % play, you don't get an opportunity to shoot a layup if you're swallowed up by the defense/travel/have your pocket picked. I agree I'd be happier with a kickout to Toney/Drumgoole/Champagnie for a mid-range shot rather than an out of control drive that has no hope of success.
 
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This is all well and good generic data. However, the data is not specific to a particular team's personnel makeup. As weak as Pitt's 3-point shooters (except Murphy and maybe eventually Drumgoole) are as compared to the ACC average, for Pitt's particular case that mid-range jumper to long layup stat probably doesn't apply very strongly in considering what should be a current Pitt shot selection process. Being able to make those in-between shots could possibly be a more efficient Pitt-specific approach to adopt in place of so many rejected layups and missed 3-balls. I say "could" rather than "would" or "should" because the emphasis from AAU ball on up is to not bother to teach mid-range skills so that results in few players today having those shots in their skill set--and Pitt players are probably not an exception to the rule.
There is no official shot chart for the Nichols State game but against FSU, Pitt was 0-7 from midrange
 
There is no official shot chart for the Nichols State game but against FSU, Pitt was 0-7 from
It's kind of like a chicken and the egg dilemma.
Now kids are taught not to practice that game because the stats then the stats are going to further reinforce the stats.
I look at it differently.
You should have 1 shot in your bag to keep a defense honest.
Ive played against a lot of dudes who always had that one spot or style of midrange that kept you on your toes.
Now if you never practice a shot like that, you'll never hit it.
A decent midrange game makes it easier for you to get better layups.
It only has to keep the D honest not be a primary shot.
 
Agree. An old time NBA player of my acquaintence always complaons about the lack of mid range skills with todays players. He believes a complete player should be able to shoot well on long range jumpers, mid range jumpers, long layups (inside foul shot distance using the backboard as well as the variations on the regular layup.
 
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