Agree and disagree on Jarry. His performance in shootouts was pathetic and kind of amplified how the dude wilts under pressure But yeah Jarry had plenty of company in stinking out the joint. One of the biggest culprits is captain Ole Karlson.
OT - PENS ........
- Thread starter goalieman
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Jarry proved capable of being an all star level goalie for a few seasons - and I probably liked him because his style reminded me of MAF.
But , sometimes goalies just go bad - a change or scenery will hopefully revive him.
Maybe in a more structured and disciplined team.
Wish it worked out so we had our next franchise goalie .
Agree with everyone who stated that the Pens have multiple significant flaws leading to their poor record and one of the many flaws is goaltending .......
Interesting, but not surprising, that Pens put Jarry on waivers ...... many of us said back when Jarry was an UFA that his performance at the time was such that Dubas should give him a short term contract (2-3 years) with a modest increase in salary (from his previous 3.5M to maybe 4-4.5M) ...... more or less a prove yourself type contract ....... he was given a 5 year contract with a cap hit of 5.375M/year which looks like a big mistake at present ...... I expect him to clear waivers and be sent to WBS and the Pens to recall Blomqvist to Pittsburgh.
Jarry has a modified-NTC which says he can list 12 teams that he can't be traded to which means there are 19 teams he can be traded to ....... but who wants him with his performance and that contract, to trade him the Pens would probably have to retain 50% of his salary (maximum that can be retained) and/or enhance the deal by giving the other team high draft pick(s) and/or high prospect(s) or making him part of a multiple player deal with other better players going to the other team or the Pens taking on just as bad of a contract back, etc ..... obviously the Pens would like not to do any of these things ........ therefore the Pens are in a bind here ..... probably easier to deal Ned .....
Regarding the goals that Jarry gave up last night against the Kraken and whether they were soft goals .....
Goal #1 was a shot from the level of the top of the right circle (a little toward mid-ice from the top of the circle), no screen, no deflection, not a particular hard shot and he muffed it with his blocker ...... this was a soft/bad goal ..... it was a low danger shot that an average NHL would make the save 96-97+% of the time .......
Goal #3 TJ was in the rVH position appropriately and had his stick in proper position to try and stop a pass across the crease ..... even though the Pens had 4 defenders against 2 Kraken players, Seattle still scored because the Pens defenders lost track of who they should be defending ....... the pass across was just outside the reach of Jarry's stick and was shot in the backdoor ...... Jarry played it as well as he could and had basically no chance to make a save ...... good goal, bad defense by Pens skaters .....
Goal #2 is a little harder to evaluate ..... certainly Malkin and Pettersson made mistakes defensively that caused Oleksiak to get a good shot that he never should have gotten from the left inner circle at the level of the hash marks ...... this is an area close to the border between high danger and medium danger shots (probably just into the medium danger area) ....... Jarry was in decent (not perfect) position but Oleksiak's shot was pretty hard and well placed ...... in this area of the ice between a high danger and medium danger shot, the goalies SV% should be about 85% ....... so this was not an easy save nor a soft/bad goal but certainly one that you hope your goalie can make if you want to win a close game ...... Jarry did get hung out by poor defense on the play ....... it can change a little in different years but in general, average SV% for High Danger shots is 80-81%, for Medium Danger shots 87-89%, and for Low Danger shots 96-97+%.
How do the Pens goalies advanced stats compare to other goalies in the league this season .......
delta SV% ....... TJ is ranked 39th out of the top 43 goalies ..... Ned is 40th out of 43
Goals Saved Above Expected ...... TJ is 41st out of 43 ..... Ned is 40th out of 43
High Danger SV% ...... TJ 43th out of 44 ...... Ned is 41st out of 44.
At present it looks like the longer term future of Pens goaltending is between Blomqvist, Murashov, and Larsson all of whom are solid/good prospects ...... that could change, we'll see how it plays out.
Interesting, but not surprising, that Pens put Jarry on waivers ...... many of us said back when Jarry was an UFA that his performance at the time was such that Dubas should give him a short term contract (2-3 years) with a modest increase in salary (from his previous 3.5M to maybe 4-4.5M) ...... more or less a prove yourself type contract ....... he was given a 5 year contract with a cap hit of 5.375M/year which looks like a big mistake at present ...... I expect him to clear waivers and be sent to WBS and the Pens to recall Blomqvist to Pittsburgh.
Jarry has a modified-NTC which says he can list 12 teams that he can't be traded to which means there are 19 teams he can be traded to ....... but who wants him with his performance and that contract, to trade him the Pens would probably have to retain 50% of his salary (maximum that can be retained) and/or enhance the deal by giving the other team high draft pick(s) and/or high prospect(s) or making him part of a multiple player deal with other better players going to the other team or the Pens taking on just as bad of a contract back, etc ..... obviously the Pens would like not to do any of these things ........ therefore the Pens are in a bind here ..... probably easier to deal Ned .....
Regarding the goals that Jarry gave up last night against the Kraken and whether they were soft goals .....
Goal #1 was a shot from the level of the top of the right circle (a little toward mid-ice from the top of the circle), no screen, no deflection, not a particular hard shot and he muffed it with his blocker ...... this was a soft/bad goal ..... it was a low danger shot that an average NHL would make the save 96-97+% of the time .......
Goal #3 TJ was in the rVH position appropriately and had his stick in proper position to try and stop a pass across the crease ..... even though the Pens had 4 defenders against 2 Kraken players, Seattle still scored because the Pens defenders lost track of who they should be defending ....... the pass across was just outside the reach of Jarry's stick and was shot in the backdoor ...... Jarry played it as well as he could and had basically no chance to make a save ...... good goal, bad defense by Pens skaters .....
Goal #2 is a little harder to evaluate ..... certainly Malkin and Pettersson made mistakes defensively that caused Oleksiak to get a good shot that he never should have gotten from the left inner circle at the level of the hash marks ...... this is an area close to the border between high danger and medium danger shots (probably just into the medium danger area) ....... Jarry was in decent (not perfect) position but Oleksiak's shot was pretty hard and well placed ...... in this area of the ice between a high danger and medium danger shot, the goalies SV% should be about 85% ....... so this was not an easy save nor a soft/bad goal but certainly one that you hope your goalie can make if you want to win a close game ...... Jarry did get hung out by poor defense on the play ....... it can change a little in different years but in general, average SV% for High Danger shots is 80-81%, for Medium Danger shots 87-89%, and for Low Danger shots 96-97+%.
How do the Pens goalies advanced stats compare to other goalies in the league this season .......
delta SV% ....... TJ is ranked 39th out of the top 43 goalies ..... Ned is 40th out of 43
Goals Saved Above Expected ...... TJ is 41st out of 43 ..... Ned is 40th out of 43
High Danger SV% ...... TJ 43th out of 44 ...... Ned is 41st out of 44.
At present it looks like the longer term future of Pens goaltending is between Blomqvist, Murashov, and Larsson all of whom are solid/good prospects ...... that could change, we'll see how it plays out.
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Thanks for the analysis. So far Dubas has made some terrible moved (Graves, Karlsson and Jarry) come to mind off the top of my head. For sure he didn’t come into a good situation but it seems he’s made it worse
Goalies are a lot like relievers in baseball. They get hot, play off of confidence, but they can lose it and lose it quickly. Few and far between are those goalies who can be excellent season after season.
Pens beat Buffalo tonight 5-2 (1st game of 7 game road trip) ...... Pens with 3 PP goals ...... Nedeljkovic with 40 saves, a goal, and an assist !
That was a nifty moment … but that’s as much of a #1 star as you’ll ever have!
1st goalie in NHL history to have a goal and an assist in one game !
He should’ve dropped the gloves after taking the hit to score the goal, and secured the first Gordie Howe by a goalie ever. Can’t see anyone ever doing that in nhl history otherwise, and it was nearly perfectly set up
He's going to get bumped up to Sid's line.
I mean he has kind of started it........just with the loaded NO TRADE/NO MOVEMENT clauses it is hard to move guys. I think you will see Peterson moved sooner than later. Rackell could be moved by the deadline, his price has certainly gone up (as far as return) or wait until the offseason.
I think they really need to have an honest conversation with Sid.
Sid is the key to truly rebuilding. I know this is blasphemy but he’d provide the greatest return if they were to trade him even though it appears his play had clearly slipped a lot this year
I would think Sid would want to play the last few years of his career on a contender and win another cup. He’s unlikely to do that here whether they rebuild or not
He is exactly what Toronto needs. But....Toronto really has nothing the Pens need. They don't have any really good prospects and their draft picks would all be 25-32 in Rd 1 so big deal.
They are who we thought they were. A mediocre 500 sub 500 team that still thinks the stars can carry the team like they used to. Well TBH aside from maybe Sid Malkin would not be a top 6 forward and Tanger wouldn’t be a top 4 defensemen. In fact I’d go so far to say that if you took their names away and pretended they were rookies their level of play wouldn’t make the team. Way too inconsistent
And this year Sid is a shell of what he was even last year.
Got to try and move all these guys even sid
And this year Sid is a shell of what he was even last year.
Got to try and move all these guys even sid
I love the Pens but i hope they lose a record number of games and get the first pick overall every year for 3 years in a row
I'll take...
2025 Matthew Schaefer D
2026 Gavin McKenna F
2027 (especially this guy he is the next "special dude") Landon Dupont D (who might be the next Coffey/Orr) at least Cale Makar
2025 Matthew Schaefer D
2026 Gavin McKenna F
2027 (especially this guy he is the next "special dude") Landon Dupont D (who might be the next Coffey/Orr) at least Cale Makar
Don't they do that lottery pick thing for the bottom 5 or so teams, though??
Pens had good luck in the past, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them get stoned going forward. Luck can't hold out forever.
Lottery for the first overall for the top 11 slots, the top 14 can actually move up but the highest picks 12-14 can move up is 10 slots, so say pick 13 wins the lottery, they would pick 3rd overall, or the Pens they are currently 7th overall, they can move up anywhere between 6 to #1 overall, and I think most they can drop is 3 spots.
Would be great to see some pre draft maneuvering, but so many of their problems have NTC's. Just about impossible without a lot of cooperation from the aging stars.
This draft, there are no Crosby's or McDavid's, but there are 4 really good guys and any of them could go #1 overall. So not a slam dunk guy at the top though Erie D Matthew Schaefer seems to be rising to that spot.
Another nail gets hammered home in the coffin this afternoon in Seattle.
Which is good. Way too many inconsequential hot streaks leading into the deadline the past few years.
I'll admit I was excited they went on that nice 10-12 game streak, but inside I knew it wasn't a good thing in the long run.
If this keeps up, you have to have a sit down with Sid and ask him what he wants.
Team is sleep walking. Compounding lack of talent with lack of effort.
Terrible loss to San Jose 2-1 tonight ...... Pens looked like they were just going through the motions, lacked intensity and effort, awful performance ...... poor puck management by the Pens deep in their own zone caused two turnovers that led to the Sharks two goals ....... Pens playing like the worst team in the NHL at the moment ....... their playoff chances after this road trip look all but gone barring a miracle ....... they needed to go 5-2, 5-1-1, or 6-1 to keep in the playoff race, they are 2-4 now ........ expect them to make some trades before the trade deadline and more over the summer to try and get young NHL players, prospects, and draft picks ....... would like to see some young guys called up from WBS before the season is over to give them some experience at the NHL level and see what they can do ...... Ned was solid in goal tonight.
Sid’s drop off in play from last year is significant. Question is does he decide to retire knowing his skills have badly eroded or does he want to try and win one more cup. I can’t imagine a guy like him wanting to go through a rebuild. Same for Geno and Tanger Do they just hang it up or agree to be traded.
The only guys they could get value for are Rackel Rust and Pederson. Graves is a stiff and Karlsons contact will prevent anyone from wanting him. He’s been a huge part of the defensive issues and he really doesn’t bring much offensively. That was a horrible acquisition. I’m not sure Dubas is the guy to lead the rebuild given some is the terrible moves he’s made
Mackey brought up a good point last night. Ask him about Colorado and finishing with his bud Nate MacKinnon. Colorado may bite on a good deal
I’m sure you can have a discussion with him as to where he’d want to go. The question is is he interested in playing for another team at this point. He just doesn’t seem to have the spark and fire he’s had as recently as last year
I said it was a good loss. Their goal differential is one of the worst in the league. They are bad. They always get a 10 game set where they win 7 and people start thinking they have a chance, they miss the playoffs, and draft 14. That's what the Steelers do, aside from missing the playoffs.
This road trip, especially now with Malkin's injury and the loss to the Sharks should leave no doubt, it is time to start tearing the rest down, and this includes having serious discussions with Sid. He himself looks like he needs a new challenge to rejuvenate himself.
The thing about a Sid trade it is a difficult one to make, not just considering who Sid is. You are going to trade him to a contender, so say they offer two #1s and a prospect. Well those #1s are likely 24-32. That's a real crapshoot there. And the Avs don't have a 1st rd pick (honestly more interested in 2026 and 2027 drafts) so it would have to be an intricate deal to make it worthwhile. Teams like Vegas, Toronto and Edmonton also don't have 1st rd picks.
Great point about playoff contenders. Kinda makes his value less than what you’d think unless there’s a young player in their organization that you can add as well.
You gotta think he is torn. The club that picked him #1, won 3 cups with, played in 4 total finals. Mario still a minority owner. But this terrible team could be wearing one him. If he wants to retire a Pen, they need to have the adult conversation with him that his last few years are gunna be bleak. His buddies are getting traded and they are rebuilding.
They're not even the Stillers at this point. They very well could be and probably are one of the 5 worst teams in the NHL. And it starts with Sullivan. This guy can be a fine coach, but it's time for a change. The NHL is completely different animal with coaching turnover that just about every other major sport.
But along with him, this is just a poorly run organization with what is turning into a complete dud of a GM hire. Dumb contracts all over this roster. I mean honestly, he is responsible for EK and Jarry. Those 2 decisions alone should be enough to get him sacked.
Honestly, you have to flat out tell Letang, EK, Malkin, Rust....sorry guys, if you want to be a part of a team that competes for the Cup, waive your NMC, because you're not competing for one here....you guys disagree? Look at the standings....
Dang, thats a bummer about those clubs with no 1st round picks. Unless they can pluck their absolute top prospects, probably a no go with them.
One possible exception is the Canadians. They have more young talent than most of the contenders, so you may be able to get a few quality prospects in addition to the draft picks from them. Plus even with Sid, they’d probably barely make the playoffs, or not make them at all. So the picks would most likely be higher.
Having said that, I still think he’ll just play his last few years here, no matter how bad the team is.
I think only Letang would waive hit NTC for Montreal
You’re probably right.
Although the Canadians were Sid’s favorite team growing up. But as I said, I still think Sid will probably choose to play out his career with the Pens.
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