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OT: Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes a bust?

Agreed, I think we all want him to be a star who can carry a team, but I think we’ve gotten to the point where that’s not who he will be. But if he can ops around .750 and maintain his defense, he’s a good piece. But you’re right, you need impact players around him to make sure there isn’t a need to rely on him to hit
The Pirates won a WS title with Richie Hebner at 3rd base. He was a decent hitter, not great, kinda like Hayes, but his defense was not elite like Hayes' is.
Hand wringing over Hayes is silly. Hand wringing over Reynolds is silly.

Hand wringing over Suwinski is more like it.
 
The Pirates won a WS title with Richie Hebner at 3rd base. He was a decent hitter, not great, kinda like Hayes, but his defense was not elite like Hayes' is.
Hand wringing over Hayes is silly. Hand wringing over Reynolds is silly.

Hand wringing over Suwinski is more like it.
I think the major part of Pirates fans hand wringing over Hayes and Reynolds is that they are very streaky guys at the plate. Both of their careers have seen them have times where they look like All-Stars and other prolonged periods of what feels like sub-.200 hitting.

As the seasons gets deeper and the averages having larger samples, they both are clearly above average at their positions, I would think.

As you note, neither of these guys are an issue. I would go as far to say that they are both likely part of the solution (meaning, a winning team in Pittsburgh) a few years from now if it comes to pass.
 
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Speaking of Richie Hebner makes me want to tug at the neck on the back of my jersey. But I recall him as being a streaky hitter, too. He go on these hot streak where he’d completely carry the offense for a week or so, then fade back.
 
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Speaking of Richie Hebner makes me want to tug at the neck on the back of my jersey. But I recall him as being a streaky hitter, too. He go on these hot streak where he’d completely carry the offense for a week or so, then fade back.
I had a Richie Hebner baseball glove growing up.

But when I think of Richie Hebner now, for whatever reason, 1st thing that comes to my mind is his Town Talk bread commercials (or whatever the name of that bread was?)
 
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The Pirates won a WS title with Richie Hebner at 3rd base. He was a decent hitter, not great, kinda like Hayes, but his defense was not elite like Hayes' is.
Hand wringing over Hayes is silly. Hand wringing over Reynolds is silly.

Hand wringing over Suwinski is more like it.

I wish Hayes was “kinda like “ Hebner as a hitter. Beginning in his 3rd year, for 4 years Hebner’s BA was .275-.280 and he averaged around 20 HRs and 70 RBI’s. Hayes has quite a ways to go to reach those stat lines. Of course, long periods on the DL don’t help.

Why would anyone expect young players who never excelled at the AAA level to succeed at the MLB level? This comment doesn’t just apply to Hayes but just about ever young player in the Pirates lineup. Kind of like a “C“ level elementary student being asked to skip a grade…or 2.
 
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I wish Hayes was “kinda like “ Hebner as a hitter. Beginning in his 3rd year, for 4 years Hebner’s BA was .275-.280 and he averaged around 20 HRs and 70 RBI’s. Hayes has quite a ways to go to reach those stat lines. Of course, long periods on the DL don’t help.

Why would anyone expect young players who never excelled at the AAA level to succeed at the MLB level? This comment doesn’t just apply to Hayes but just about ever young player in the Pirates lineup. Kind of like a “C“ level elementary student being asked to skip a grade…or 2.
Hayes is currently around .260 BA, with 8 HR's and around 50 rbi's with a bunch of games to go this year.

Let's see where he is after his 3rd year. Cherry picking Hebner's best years compared to Hayes first 2 is kind of disingenuous.

That's pretty close, especially if he hits a few more HR's.

However, his defense at 3rd is far superior to the Hack's, and that counts too.
 
I had a Richie Hebner baseball glove growing up.

But when I think of Richie Hebner now, for whatever reason, 1st thing that comes to my mind is his Town Talk bread commercials (or whatever the name of that bread was?)
It's not the bread, it's the Wapper!
 
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I had a Richie Hebner baseball glove growing up.

But when I think of Richie Hebner now, for whatever reason, 1st thing that comes to my mind is his Town Talk bread commercials (or whatever the name of that bread was?)
“Da Rappa!”
 
Hayes is currently around .260 BA, with 8 HR's and around 50 rbi's with a bunch of games to go this year.

Let's see where he is after his 3rd year. Cherry picking Hebner's best years compared to Hayes first 2 is kind of disingenuous.

That's pretty close, especially if he hits a few more HR's.

However, his defense at 3rd is far superior to the Hack's, and that counts too.
But that hack was surrounded with big bats…this team, naw.
 
Another HR tonight for Charlie Hayes’ kid. That’s 10 for the year.

Is it safe to take him off the “bust” list yet?

I’m thinking that if he can get his health corrected, he will be a 20 HR guy who hits .270.

His biggest problem is health. Not ability.
 
Another HR tonight for Charlie Hayes’ kid. That’s 10 for the year.

Is it safe to take him off the “bust” list yet?

I’m thinking that if he can get his health corrected, he will be a 20 HR guy who hits .270.

His biggest problem is health. Not ability.
He was never on any sensible person's "bust" list.
 
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Another HR tonight for Charlie Hayes’ kid. That’s 10 for the year.

Is it safe to take him off the “bust” list yet?

I’m thinking that if he can get his health corrected, he will be a 20 HR guy who hits .270.

His biggest problem is health. Not ability.
Batting .306 with 5 HRs and 6 extra base hits in August.
 
Batting .306 with 5 HRs and 6 extra base hits in August.

The likelihood of him putting it together was pretty high given his exit velocities where he is still top 20, he just needed to adjust his swing plane a bit. Not even a lot, just a little bit to get from an absolutely pathetic 5.2 degrees last year to around league average.
 
If Hayes makes the all-star team twice and wins two gold gloves in the next three years he will be right where Gene alley was at that age more or less, Alley four years of higher average, with a bit fewer rbis, 6-8 home runs playing in Forbes Field
 
If Hayes makes the all-star team twice and wins two gold gloves in the next three years he will be right where Gene alley was at that age more or less, Alley four years of higher average, with a bit fewer rbis, 6-8 home runs playing in Forbes Field


Hayes is 26. His OPSs for the four years he's played (the first year a partial one) are 1.124, .689, .659 and .735. At age 26 Gene Alley had also played four years (the first one a partial year as well) and his OPSs were .481, .607, .650 and .752.

And that .752 season was the best offensive season of his career.
 
Changing my handle to : Ke'BryanHayesreadstheseboards
The kid has been kicking a** for most of this thread......
 
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Hayes went 4/4 tonight and now has the highest the WAR (2.8) of any player on this team… Raise It! Looking forward to watching them play in-person tomorrow night.
Not only that, which is great BTW, but did you see the plays he was making??
He's so good over there it is actually boring! Totally take his play for granted.
Hit anywhere near 3rd base, look away, automatic out!!
 
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Not only that, which is great BTW, but did you see the plays he was making??
He's so good over there it is actually boring! Totally take his play for granted.
Hit anywhere near 3rd base, look away, automatic out!!
I can't believe that this thread is still up. I don't think I have added to it at all till now because of how ridiculous it was to start with. The kid has been playing hurt and now that he is a bit better he is really showing what he can do. And that play on Bobby Witt last night should shut the naysayers up. finally.
 
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I can't believe that this thread is still up. I don't think I have added to it at all till now because of how ridiculous it was to start with. The kid has been playing hurt and now that he is a bit better he is really showing what he can do. And that play on Bobby Witt last night should shut the naysayers up. finally.
I think it’s an act at this point. It has to be.
 
I can't believe that this thread is still up. I don't think I have added to it at all till now because of how ridiculous it was to start with. The kid has been playing hurt and now that he is a bit better he is really showing what he can do. And that play on Bobby Witt last night should shut the naysayers up. finally.
he's on a streak from hell so but if he can be a .260 - .270 hitter, who gets on base and scores runs, decent RBI numbers, with his defense, it's a great contract.

honestly, in this day and age, .270 BA is really good. /270 batting average is a top 25 batting average in the national league...

He will never hit hrs but who cares. put the ball in play, get on base and be the best defensive 3rd baseman and it's a win for everyone and one less position the pirates have to worry about for the next decade..
 
Take away the games that inspired this thread, he’s been batting .280 since the thread started. There isn’t one 3rd baseman in MLB batting .280. Not one.

Worth mentioning that the thread started like 5 games and 20 at bats into the season. In basketball terms that’s like drawing a conclusion about a player after he misses the first jump shot of the game in the season opener.
 
Take away the games that inspired this thread, he’s been batting .280 since the thread started. There isn’t one 3rd baseman in MLB batting .280. Not one.

Worth mentioning that the thread started like 5 games and 20 at bats into the season. In basketball terms that’s like drawing a conclusion about a player after he misses the first jump shot of the game in the season opener.
Exactly, but par for the course if you catch my drift!! LOL
 
And he let that laser shot get passed him at 3rd base!!
DFA his a$$!!!!
On the flip side of this, people have been assuming Cruz is going to be a star. To me, he’s never shown to be more than Jack Suwinsky. So even when he comes back, good or bad, I’m not going to pass any judgment on him for a couple of years.

Highs and lows my friend. It’s very healthy for our mental health to eliminate them.
 
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Nuance is definitely needed here.

I wouldn't call Hayes a bust, but he is most definitely a poor hitter at this point. His .291 wOBA is well below the league average of .320 (this is actually in "awful" territory"), and his offensive contribution to WAR is *negative*. He's a phenomenal 99th percentile defender though, so his overall WAR is positive in the 1.3 range.

Hayes is really a fascinating case as a hitter. He hits the ball pretty damn hard, and he does it often. Avg exit velo is 92.2mph (91st percentile), max at 113.1 (85th). and he's got a super healthy hard hit rate of almost 48%.

In past seasons his problem was that he simply didn't hit enough balls in the air. An average launch angle of <5 degrees and groundball rate north of 50% meant he'd never get to much power in games. Makes sense right? You need to hit the ball hard AND you need to hit it in the air for it to leave the park or at least do damage in the gaps.

Now this year. Hayes continues to hit the ball hard. Hardest of his career in fact. More interesting: he increased his average launch angle to a much more ideal 13 degrees. Cut his groundball rate down to nearly 40%. These were all very exciting developments, and yet the expected power boost never materialized. What happened?

Fangraphs had a great article on this disappointment back in June: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kebryan-hayes-is-almost-elevating/

TL;DR -- When Hayes hits the ball in the air, it's usually *too* high and/or not sufficiently hard. The majority of his hard hit balls come with poor, low launch angles. Average launch angle can be misleading and what we really need is a measure of % hit at ideal angle with sufficient oomph.

Anyway, Hayes is still fairly young. He needs to make some tweaks and get to his power, otherwise he's looking at a career of significantly below average offensive production. A few more walks would help as well. Absolutely not out of the question that a great athlete who already does hit the ball hard can successfully make said adjustments. So the verdict is still out, although results to this point are disappointing. On the bright side, he's a truly special defender and that gives him value if he can even get his offensive production close to league average. And as others have pointed out, Hayes isn't really expensive if you know anything about how MLB contracts work. It's just that a 2-3 WAR third baseman isn't a grand slam of a signing at that price, and everyone was hoping it would be.


After last night, Ke'Bryan Hayes' wOBA sits at .322, the highest qualified number of his career (league average is .320). wRC+ is 99 (average 100). He is now almost exactly a league average hitter, quite an accomplishment given he was sitting as low as 30th percentile just a couple months ago.

Hayes continues to hit the ball exceedingly hard (92.7 avg exit velo, 49.5% hard hit) and even better, he's finally hitting a lot more balls hard at closer to ideal launch angles. Defense is still better than perhaps any other MLB player (100th percentile outs above average).

These are all very exciting developments. Caution is still warranted -- would like to see him lower chase/whiff rates on offspeed and take a few more walks to even out the streakiness -- but the arrow is most definitely pointing up.

Still a chance this is a grand slam of a contract if he can hold on to these gains and increase consistency at the dish.
 
On the flip side of this, people have been assuming Cruz is going to be a star. To me, he’s never shown to be more than Jack Suwinsky. So even when he comes back, good or bad, I’m not going to pass any judgment on him for a couple of years.

Highs and lows my friend. It’s very healthy for our mental health to eliminate them.
I have much more concern about Cruz than Hayes.
That slide where he got hurt had Gregory Polanco written all over it.

Plus his being stubborn about staying at SS is worrisome. He projects best in RF where his big arm would be a weapon and his height would play better than SS.

The Pirates have a bunch of SS's who can play, but could use a big bat in RF or 1B to balance things out.
 
I have much more concern about Cruz than Hayes.
That slide where he got hurt had Gregory Polanco written all over it.

Plus his being stubborn about staying at SS is worrisome. He projects best in RF where his big arm would be a weapon and his height would play better than SS.

The Pirates have a bunch of SS's who can play, but could use a big bat in RF or 1B to balance things out.
I have to ask you or other pirate fans here as I’ve been wondering…

Earlier in the year, it might have been when Davis was called up…an Altoona infielder came to the ballpark and seemingly bought a ticket and sat in the box seats beside the dugout to watch and support his friends. Does anyone remember this? Was it Peguero?

 
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I have to ask you or other pirate fans here as I’ve been wondering…

Earlier in the year, it might have been when Davis was called up…an Altoona infielder came to the ballpark and seemingly bought a ticket and sat in the box seats beside the dugout to watch and support his friends. Does anyone remember this? Was it Peguero?

Pretty sure that was Nick Gonzales
 
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Pretty sure that was Nick Gonzales
No. It definitely wasn’t Gonzalez. I know that for a fact because I am not a guy who follows the farm system that closely but I always knew who Gonzalez was/is. They even interviewed him during the game and showed video of him talking to Cutch from the stands.
 
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