OT: Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes a bust?

[FreeportPanther]

That one stung last night. Sucks to care.
Bae went from hero to goat.
Of course, Holdno-one was up to his old tricks. The walks for a closer or back end guy are inexcusable.

 

[TheChair]

How are his defensive stats???
I'd say #1 in all categories, without looking of course.

Amongst MLB third basemen:

7th in batting average,
7th in WAR,
9th in Doubles,
2nd in Triples,
11th in hits,
The best defender at his position in baseball.

He also has missed a good deal of games. The prior stat listing was not exactly a complete story …

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Amongst MLB third basemen:

7th in batting average,
7th in WAR,
9th in Doubles,
2nd in Triples,
11th in hits,
The best defender at his position in baseball.

He also has missed a good deal of games. The prior stat listing was not exactly a complete story …

Thanks for this. I knew that previous stat line was missing some much needed context.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

That one stung last night. Sucks to care.
Bae went from hero to goat.
Of course, Holdno-one was up to his old tricks. The walks for a closer or back end guy are inexcusable.

I know I was hard on Holderman in this thread, calling him a curtain jerker and the pirates unserious for having him as their set up guy. I acknowledge that I should probably eat a little crow. We are allowed to do that right? Lol.

But my lord, then he goes out and does that last night. And therefore, I still think the pirates need to strengthen that back end up a bit if they are to contend for a playoff spot next year.

Also not sure how many games he’s blown for the pirates this year and what the expectation is for a set up guy. I’m guessing they’d be closer to .500 with someone a bit better.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

18th best OBP out of 20 qualified 2rd Basemen.
15th best OPS out of 20.
18th most HRs out of 20.
1st in caught stealing out of 20.
20th in walks out of 20.

He's still one of the worst offensive weapons among the everyday starters. But he is also the 15th highest paid 3rd baseman, so he's playing to his salary.

I knew this needed context. I also felt it wasn’t right.

He’s 7th among NL 3B in OPS
He’s 4th among NL 3B in AVG
He’s 9th among NL 3B in HR (in spite of 40 fewer starts)
He’s 6th among NL 3B in SLG
He’s 8th among NL 3B in OBP

So yeah these are all middle of the pack type stats, and I’m guessing his NL salary is middle of the pack too? But then there’s the defensive stats that need pulled too. And those would probably suggests that he’s a bargain when combined with his offensive stats.

And it also suggests that he’s not a bust, which was the premise of this season long thread.

One other thing after crunching some numbers. His rate of HR’s per start would have yielded another 5 or so if he played the whole season, which would give him 20 for the season. His lack of power seems to be the thing most people point to as a 3B. While 20 HR isn’t elite, it’s also quite average. If you get above average power out of your SS next year (big if), then his 20 HR is more palatable. I also think he could be closer to 25 HR next year and 25 HR will put a 3B around he top 5 in the league. Currently the guys occupying the 3rd and 4th HR spot at the position are on 260 million and 350 million contracts. Although for complete context, the guy occupying the #5 spot is on a contract similar to Hayes.

 

[Ski11585]

I knew this needed context. I also felt it wasn’t right.

He’s 7th among NL 3B in OPS
He’s 4th among NL 3B in AVG
He’s 9th among NL 3B in HR (in spite of 40 fewer starts)
He’s 6th among NL 3B in SLG
He’s 8th among NL 3B in OBP

So yeah these are all middle of the pack type stats, and I’m guessing his NL salary is middle of the pack too? But then there’s the defensive stats that need pulled too. And those would probably suggests that he’s a bargain when combined with his offensive stats.

And it also suggests that he’s not a bust, which was the premise of this season long thread.

One other thing after crunching some numbers. His rate of HR’s per start would have yielded another 5 or so if he played the whole season, which would give him 20 for the season. His lack of power seems to be the thing most people point to as a 3B. While 20 HR isn’t elite, it’s also quite average. If you get above average power out of your SS next year (big if), then his 20 HR is more palatable. I also think he could be closer to 25 HR next year and 25 HR will put a 3B around he top 5 in the league. Currently the guys occupying the 3rd and 4th HR spot at the position are on 260 million and 350 million contracts. Although for complete context, the guy occupying the #5 spot is on a contract similar to Hayes.

Yup. At the end of the day, Hayes has definitely proved that he’s at worst a league average batter and most definitely not a bust.

Cmon @PittPoker! Admit this one was a miss.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I know I was hard on Holderman in this thread, calling him a curtain jerker and the pirates unserious for having him as their set up guy. I acknowledge that I should probably eat a little crow. We are allowed to do that right? Lol.

But my lord, then he goes out and does that last night. And therefore, I still think the pirates need to strengthen that back end up a bit if they are to contend for a playoff spot next year.

Also not sure how many games he’s blown for the pirates this year and what the expectation is for a set up guy. I’m guessing they’d be closer to .500 with someone a bit better.

But the thing is, for as poorly as he pitched last night, if Bae just makes a simple throw to first on the double play ball we are all sitting here saying "well he didn't pitch very well, but he got the job done."

Which is probably more an indictment of the save as a meaningful stat than anything else.

 

[DT_PITT]

But the thing is, for as poorly as he pitched last night, if Bae just makes a simple throw to first on the double play ball we are all sitting here saying "well he didn't pitch very well, but he got the job done."

Which is probably more an indictment of the save as a meaningful stat than anything else.

The criteria for a save are even worse than the criteria for a win.

 

[CJsE]

I knew this needed context. I also felt it wasn’t right.

He’s 7th among NL 3B in OPS
He’s 4th among NL 3B in AVG
He’s 9th among NL 3B in HR (in spite of 40 fewer starts)
He’s 6th among NL 3B in SLG
He’s 8th among NL 3B in OBP

So yeah these are all middle of the pack type stats, and I’m guessing his NL salary is middle of the pack too? But then there’s the defensive stats that need pulled too. And those would probably suggests that he’s a bargain when combined with his offensive stats.

And it also suggests that he’s not a bust, which was the premise of this season long thread.

One other thing after crunching some numbers. His rate of HR’s per start would have yielded another 5 or so if he played the whole season, which would give him 20 for the season. His lack of power seems to be the thing most people point to as a 3B. While 20 HR isn’t elite, it’s also quite average. If you get above average power out of your SS next year (big if), then his 20 HR is more palatable. I also think he could be closer to 25 HR next year and 25 HR will put a 3B around he top 5 in the league. Currently the guys occupying the 3rd and 4th HR spot at the position are on 260 million and 350 million contracts. Although for complete context, the guy occupying the #5 spot is on a contract similar to Hayes.

He's an everyday starter at 3B, paid like an everyday starter at 3B, and should be compared as such. So the numbers are a bit different looking when you narrow down the field of actual comparable players. What additional context does narrowing down the field to NL only and not providing how many qualified players are in the pool you are using? If anything, you are providing far less context.

Among MLB everyday starters at 3B (3.1 PA per team game played).
He's 15th out of 20 in OPS.
He's 8th out of 20 in AVG.
He's 18th out of 20 in HR. (his AB per HR is also 18th out of 20, so additional games do not necessarily mean he would rise here)
He's 12th out of 20 in SLG.
He's 18th out of 20 in OBP.

I'm not saying he's a bust or overpaid. He's an elite defensive player, his offensive performance is pretty much in line with what he's being paid (15th highest paid), and his potential is certainly there on offense.

 

[Hailpitt]

This is what I love about this forum— up to date Pitt hoop news!!!!

 

[Ski11585]

Game was ugly for the Buccos, but two more hits and another dinger for the bust.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Game was ugly for the Buccos, but two more hits and another dinger for the bust.

Up to .276 and climbing. He’s 37th overall in BA. Not bad for a guy who can’t hit.

 

[FreeportPanther]

Ho hum! Another day, another dinger along with another hit!
This is getting so boring..............

 

[Ski11585]

Ho hum! Another day, another dinger along with another hit!
This is getting so boring..............

At this point, we should be wondering when Hayes won’t hit a homer. @PittPoker what say you?

 

[DT_PITT]

At this point, we should be wondering when Hayes won’t hit a homer. @PittPoker what say you?

@PittPoker - I really hope you’ll chime in here because this thread REALLY needs to end!!

 

[VincePITT]

 

[PittPoker]

@PittPoker - I really hope you’ll chime in here because this thread REALLY needs to end!!

Sigh okay he's not a bust. I was wrong.

I can't believe I am admitting this lol.

 

[jerome_lane]

After last night, Ke'Bryan Hayes' wOBA sits at .322, the highest qualified number of his career (league average is .320). wRC+ is 99 (average 100). He is now almost exactly a league average hitter, quite an accomplishment given he was sitting as low as 30th percentile just a couple months ago.

Hayes continues to hit the ball exceedingly hard (92.7 avg exit velo, 49.5% hard hit) and even better, he's finally hitting a lot more balls hard at closer to ideal launch angles. Defense is still better than perhaps any other MLB player (100th percentile outs above average).

These are all very exciting developments. Caution is still warranted -- would like to see him lower chase/whiff rates on offspeed and take a few more walks to even out the streakiness -- but the arrow is most definitely pointing up.

Still a chance this is a grand slam of a contract if he can hold on to these gains and increase consistency at the dish.

Updating this, Ke'Bryan Hayes is now firmly above league average in wOBA and wRC+. He is also, and I do not exaggerate here, likely the single best defender in all of professional beisbol. 100th percentile OAA.

Lot of God's own morons in this thread who have no room for nuance and zero patience.

 

[DT_PITT]

Sigh okay he's not a bust. I was wrong.

I can't believe I am admitting this lol.

That’s cool. We are all just glad to see him hitting better. Plus he might win a Gold Glove too.

 

[PittPoker]

That’s cool. We are all just glad to see him hitting better. Plus he might win a Gold Glove too.

Yup good to finally see

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Watch there be a contract dispute next Spring because he’s severely underpaid vs other top 3B players in the league. Then we will get a sequel to this thread.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Yup good to finally see

Don’t know what his wins above replacement are, but imagine if he had a better start to the season and wasn’t hurt in July. Not sure it would equate to 5 more wins and probably not. But 5 more wins would have the Bucs roughly a game out of a wild card.

There just might be some excitement headed into next season though. What will Nutting do? #sigh. Bring in another Carlos Santana type?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Don’t know what his wins above replacement are, but imagine if he had a better start to the season and wasn’t hurt in July. Not sure it would equate to 5 more wins and probably not. But 5 more wins would have the Bucs roughly a game out of a wild card.

He's at 3.4 for the season.

There aren't even 20 players who are at 5 war for the whole season yet. An example of a 5 war player right now is Juan Soto. He's hitting .270/.407/.507 with 32 home runs and 101 rbis. He's making $23 million this year, and he's a free agent at the end of the year. And since he's only 24 (he'll be 25 next month) you can assume he's going to hit pretty well for a long time now. If Bob Nutting pries open the wallet an signs him this off season we might really have something!

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Hey! Stop laughing!

 

[thirteenNINE]

@PittPoker - I really hope you’ll chime in here because this thread REALLY needs to end!!

Honestly I wouldn't mind this thread living forever just because it means that Hayes keeps crushing it. He legitimately could be a top 20 guy in baseball for the length of his deal if he keeps hitting like this.

 

[Ski11585]

Honestly I wouldn't mind this thread living forever just because it means that Hayes keeps crushing it. He legitimately could be a top 20 guy in baseball for the length of his deal if he keeps hitting like this.

Challenge accepted.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Holy cow. What has gotten into the pirates?

Heard they had a closed door player meeting a week or two back and said they wanted to approach the end of the season like it was they, not just their opponents, who were in a playoff race.

I guess it’s easy to do that and play well because even though you try to manufacture the pressure, deep down you know it’s not there.

I doubt anyone watched them last night but that seemed to be very impressive. They may get to 78 wins and that’s one heck of an improvement from last season.

 

[Ski11585]

Holy cow. What has gotten into the pirates?

Heard they had a closed door player meeting a week or two back and said they wanted to approach the end of the season like it was they, not just their opponents, who were in a playoff race.

I guess it’s easy to do that and play well because even though you try to manufacture the pressure, deep down you know it’s not there.

I doubt anyone watched them last night but that seemed to be very impressive. They may get to 78 wins and that’s one heck of an improvement from last season.

I was talking to my brother about this, but I’m all in on the optimism train for next year. This team has shown so much fight down the stretch and to have a chance at 78 wins without Cruz and Hayes missing a big chunk.

Maybe get a FA pitcher, Cruz comes back, and Skenes delivers and this team will be competing for the playoffs.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Maybe get a FA pitcher

Well there's the problem right there. The Pirates desperately need a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Even if Skenes is what we all want him to be they still need one of those guys. And the chances that ol' Bob is going to open up the wallet to the level that could make that happen is zero. It's just not going to happen. Instead they will resign Vince Velasquez and some other guy trying to resuscitate their career, and they will get what they pay for and the starting pitching will still not be good enough to be a real contender.

 

[FreeportPanther]

Well there's the problem right there. The Pirates desperately need a top of the rotation starting pitcher. Even if Skenes is what we all want him to be they still need one of those guys. And the chances that ol' Bob is going to open up the wallet to the level that could make that happen is zero. It's just not going to happen. Instead they will resign VinceTotal

Totally disagree.
They need a solid rotation, Don't NEED that one guy.
They have 2 already in Keller and Oviedo.
Go out and buy 2 middle rotation guys, preferably one being a lefty.
Then find your #5 from all the others.
Skenes is the wild card, and when he gets here and has some seasoning, He's your #1 guy.
There are quite a few FA pitchers that fit their needs. That and a solid 1B and they are strong contenders next year.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Totally disagree.
They need a solid rotation, Don't NEED that one guy.
They have 2 already in Keller and Oviedo.
Go out and buy 2 middle rotation guys, preferably one being a lefty.
Then find your #5 from all the others.
Skenes is the wild card, and when he gets here and has some seasoning, He's your #1 guy.
There are quite a few FA pitchers that fit their needs. That and a solid 1B and they are strong contenders next year.

Problem is, Keller and Oviedo look like a number 3 and 4 starter right now, and Keller might be the #4. His era recently is approaching 6.00. So having a hole at 1 and 2 headed into next season isn’t encouraging.

 

[FreeportPanther]

Problem is, Keller and Oviedo look like a number 3 and 4 starter right now, and Keller might be the #4. His era recently is approaching 6.00.

Keller may end the season with 14 wins and already has over 200 K's.
That's in the same neighborhood as Garret Cole who is favored to win the Cy Young in the AL.

Keller had a brain fart period mid season, similar to Hayes and Reynolds, but he has pulled out of that to some extent.

If Oviedo is your #4, that works.

IF, and it's a big IF, Nutting puts up the $$ to grab 2 solid starters our of the FA pool. If you find a guy who is like a #2 or #3, and they don't have to be studs, but guys who give you 5-6 solid innings every time out and hang around .500, that's enough.

Then you have Skenes coming up at some point, and you have Brubaker coming back from injury, and you have Priester and a couple of the other guys at Indy for back ups.

Then another year or so and there are some solid arms working their way up through the minors.

 

[Fk_Pitt]

Keller may end the season with 14 wins and already has over 200 K's.
That's in the same neighborhood as Garret Cole who is favored to win the Cy Young in the AL.

Keller had a brain fart period mid season, similar to Hayes and Reynolds, but he has pulled out of that to some extent.

If Oviedo is your #4, that works.

IF, and it's a big IF, Nutting puts up the $$ to grab 2 solid starters our of the FA pool. If you find a guy who is like a #2 or #3, and they don't have to be studs, but guys who give you 5-6 solid innings every time out and hang around .500, that's enough.

Then you have Skenes coming up at some point, and you have Brubaker coming back from injury, and you have Priester and a couple of the other guys at Indy for back ups.

Then another year or so and there are some solid arms working their way up through the minors.

It’s not a mid season fart, it’s extended all the way til the end of the season. He is getting strikeouts and having good starts, but it’s like every other start since the all star break has not been top of the rotation worthy and the era is over 5.00 for a long period of time. I’m hoping it’s fatigue. But it’s not encouraging.

 

[FreeportPanther]

It’s not a mid season fart, it’s extended all the way til the end of the season. He is getting strikeouts and having good starts, but it’s like every other start since the all star break has not been top of the rotation worthy and the era is over 5.00 for a long period of time. I’m hoping it’s fatigue. But it’s not encouraging.

Maybe he's a "bust"?
Start a thread and work some magic!!

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Keller may end the season with 14 wins and already has over 200 K's.
That's in the same neighborhood as Garret Cole who is favored to win the Cy Young in the AL.

If you think that Keller is even in the same stratosphere as Cole as a pitcher right now I think we've discovered the problem here.

Keller is having a pretty good season. Cole is one of the best couple of pitchers in all of baseball, and has been for five or six years now. If Cole is your best starting pitcher you have a chance to go a long way. If Keller is your best starting pitcher you are happy that you only got eliminated from a chance to win the second wild card with a week left to go in the season.

 

[FreeportPanther]

If you think that Keller is even in the same stratosphere as Cole as a pitcher right now I think we've discovered the problem here.

Keller is having a pretty good season. Cole is one of the best couple of pitchers in all of baseball, and has been for five or six years now. If Cole is your best starting pitcher you have a chance to go a long way. If Keller is your best starting pitcher you are happy that you only got eliminated from a chance to win the second wild card with a week left to go in the season.

Oh, got it......by the way, where did the Yankees finish this year??

Keller is OK, Skenes will be the top of the order guy, sooner or later.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Oh, got it......by the way, where did the Yankees finish this year??

Keller is OK, Skenes will be the top of the order guy, sooner or later.

Of course the difference being that everyone in New York is pissed off that they've only won 78 games so far, and everyone in Pittsburgh thinks it's a great sign that they've already won 74.

But sure, this year the Yankees are only a little better than the Pirates. Now do last year. And the year before. And the year before. All years that both guys pitched for their current teams.

Do you really think that Keller is even close to being as good as Cole is?

As for Skenes, yes, we all hope that he someday becomes, well, Gerrit Cole. As opposed to, for instance, former number one overall picks Casey Mize or Brady Aiken or Mark Appel or Luke Hochevar or Bryan Bullington or, well, OK, I'm getting depressed now so I'll stop.

 

[FreeportPanther]

Of course the difference being that everyone in New York is pissed off that they've only won 78 games so far, and everyone in Pittsburgh thinks it's a great sign that they've already won 74.

But sure, this year the Yankees are only a little better than the Pirates. Now do last year. And the year before. And the year before. All years that both guys pitched for their current teams.

Do you really think that Keller is even close to being as good as Cole is?

As for Skenes, yes, we all hope that he someday becomes, well, Gerrit Cole. As opposed to, for instance, former number one overall picks Casey Mize or Brady Aiken or Mark Appel or Luke Hochevar or Bryan Bullington or, well, OK, I'm getting depressed now so I'll stop.

LOL, No I don't think Keller is as good as Cole, now or ever.
The point I'm making is you don't need that dominating #1 to have a solid SP staff. You get 4 guys that win 15 plus or minus a couple, and a solid pen and good closer and that's enough if your team scores at an adequate rate and plays plus defense.

I hope Skenes is better than Cole. When Cole was here, I always thought he was a selfish Ahole. Never a fan.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

The point I'm making is you don't need that dominating #1 to have a solid SP staff. You get 4 guys that win 15 plus or minus a couple, and a solid pen and good closer and that's enough if your team scores at an adequate rate and plays plus defense.

Come on man, if you have a pitching staff with four guys who win 15 plus games in 2023 you have the best pitching staff in all of baseball. By a large margin. That just isn't the way that the game works anymore.

As of right now Seattle leads the majors in staff era. They have three pitchers on the whole team with more than 8 wins, with one at 14 and one at 13. Toronto and Milwaukee are just behind Seattle. Toronto has four pitchers with more than 5 wins. One guy has 15 and the second best has 12. Milwaukee has one guy with 19, one guy with 16, and no one else more than 9. And their pitcher with the fourth highest win total is actually their closer, which seems rather bizarre. Next on the list is Tampa, who has one guy at 15, one at 12, one at 11, one at 9, and no one else over 5. After them is San Diego. They have a 14, 13 and 10, and then an 8 and a 7. And if you want to look at if from a different direction, Atlanta has the best record in all of baseball. They have an 18 a 14 and a 12, and no one else more than 8.

I have no idea when the last time a pitching staff had four starter at or even close to 15 wins each, but I'll bet it's been a long time.

 

[FreeportPanther]

Come on man, if you have a pitching staff with four guys who win 15 plus games in 2023 you have the best pitching staff in all of baseball. By a large margin. That just isn't the way that the game works anymore.

As of right now Seattle leads the majors in staff era. They have three pitchers on the whole team with more than 8 wins, with one at 14 and one at 13. Toronto and Milwaukee are just behind Seattle. Toronto has four pitchers with more than 5 wins. One guy has 15 and the second best has 12. Milwaukee has one guy with 19, one guy with 16, and no one else more than 9. And their pitcher with the fourth highest win total is actually their closer, which seems rather bizarre. Next on the list is Tampa, who has one guy at 15, one at 12, one at 11, one at 9, and no one else over 5. After them is San Diego. They have a 14, 13 and 10, and then an 8 and a 7. And if you want to look at if from a different direction, Atlanta has the best record in all of baseball. They have an 18 a 14 and a 12, and no one else more than 8.

I have no idea when the last time a pitching staff had four starter at or even close to 15 wins each, but I'll bet it's been a long time.

Thanks for dragging me into the 2020's. I don't pay that much attention to other team's stats, but you just made my point.

In fact it would be much easier to assemble a starting 5 with the kind of win totals you're describing. Much easier!