I’m only agreeing with you because Narduzzi sucks. I don’t see Pitt having a winning record in basketball this year. I think they’ll actually regress. But they certainly have a better shot of being top 25 before football unless Kenny returns for a 5th year.
For the record, why I believe this yerar's hoop team should be better than last year's team.
First--the why nots (in no particular order of importance)--
1. UNC won't be really bad like last year--that was 2 wins we are unlikely to get this year.
2. McGowens is gone. We will probably miss him on defense more than on offense--his jump shooting stats were terrible.
3. Last season was believed by the experts to have been an overall down year for the ACC.
4. Our good freshman recruiting class wasn't ranked as high in the ACC hierarchy as some believe it needed to be for Pitt to make a big jump. No "one and done" recruits.
5. Odukale's broken arm holds him back and Sibande might not become eligible which makes backcourt depth a potential issue.
Second, the whys we should be better (again in no particular order of importance).
1. Freshman class not as far down the list as #10 (per 24/7 sports anyway) at ACC #7 in virtual tie with Louisville at ACC #6.
2. Freshman class filled Pitt's greatest need--its lack of quantity, quality and depth of big men.
3. Ithiel Horton should provide the 3-ball shooting McGowens could not at the off guard.
4. Increased overall athleticism and length should make this team's defense better.
5. A corollary to #2, better defensive rebounding and improved inside scoring should help this team shoot a higher percentage overall--not just from outside the arc (where it was atrocious last season).
One "maybe" to add to the whys--if Sibande gets eligible and Odukale heals quickly and well the backcourt depth problem eases.
All the above being said, IMHO, the whys exceed the why nots with a couple of caveats
(1) The biggest improvement likely won't happen out of the gate--IMHO, it will happen by mid-season or later as the better of the freshmen gain maturity and contribute more.
(2) A winning W-L record likely won't happen in the ACC so Pitt needs to play enough OOC games to get to an slightly over 0.500 overall record and Covid issues will effect that option.