Tomlin Extended 3 Years

[Pitt79]

Meanwhile, it's hilarious that any coach who has won a single championship would even sniff the Hall of Fame. Neither Cowher nor Tomlin have any business being in it.

Tomlin will get in for the same reason the media fawns all over him and never criticizes him, because he's the poster boy for "you see black guys really can coach" they're scared to death to point out valid criticism in the current Woke World we live in-scared of being called racist and cancelled, the reality is, he's a good, but not a great coach. HE WILL MAKE THE HALL OF FAME! Mostly to SCREAM, "1st black coach in the HOF!!!"

 

[lilspainishflea]

I would never argue that Tomlin is a top 10 coach all time, but I do believe that he is HOF worthy based on his resume. Does he have a top 20 resume? Absolutely.

I'm a Tomlin proponent but I didn't think he should have received an extension, unless they plan on trading him for some draft picks. I think the Steelers should have required him to at least make the Divisional playoffs, whether that's by getting a bye or by winning a Wildcard. Like Andy Reid, a change of scenery would likely be best for both parties (depending on how how you look at the Eagles past 11 seasons compared to Reid's time there).

Slightly more than half his games? Of the 70 Head coaches that have 10 years experience, he's 12th in winning percentage and seven of those were before free agency when sustaining success was easier because teams could hold onto all their best players.

I think this is all fair and reasonable.

I never said and have never believed that the Steelers should fire Tomlin. I don't think this extension, nor the alleged massive raise, was particularly needed given his current results. He was a great coach and now I think that he's a good coach who underachieves because he has weaknesses or blind spots related to scheme and hiring. He'd get hired elsewhere quickly because he's a good coach. But being good doesn't absolve you of fair criticism, and Tomlin deserves plenty of it for how he has handled subordinate hires/retention and player development in the last 5 years.

Very little of the negative stuff posted about Tomlin here has been undeserved. He struggles to beat good teams (48-34-2 but negative points differential in the last 5 years). He's done absolutely zilch in the playoffs for a very long time. And to the extent that he's been saddled with bad QBs, he's partially made those situations worse by hiring unqualified people. All of that is reasonable opinion grounded in facts.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Tomlin will get in for the same reason the media fawns all over him and never criticizes him, because he's the poster boy for "you see black guys really can coach" they're scared to death to point out valid criticism in the current Woke World we live in-scared of being called racist and cancelled, the reality is, he's a good, but not a great coach. HE WILL MAKE THE HALL OF FAME! Mostly to SCREAM, "1st black coach in the HOF!!!"

Isn't Dungy in there? I admit to the Mandela Effect when it comes to "remembering" seeing guys in gold jackets. I thought Hines Ward made it, and he did not.

 

[CJsE]

Tomlin will get in for the same reason the media fawns all over him and never criticizes him, because he's the poster boy for "you see black guys really can coach" they're scared to death to point out valid criticism in the current Woke World we live in-scared of being called racist and cancelled, the reality is, he's a good, but not a great coach. HE WILL MAKE THE HALL OF FAME! Mostly to SCREAM, "1st black coach in the HOF!!!"

Guess it's not surprising that you wouldn't know there are already a black coaches in the HOF. They can vote now too in case you were trying to catch up.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I think this is all fair and reasonable.

I never said and have never believed that the Steelers should fire Tomlin. I don't think this extension, nor the alleged massive raise, was particularly needed given his current results. He was a great coach and now I think that he's a good coach who underachieves because he has weaknesses or blind spots related to scheme and hiring. He'd get hired elsewhere quickly because he's a good coach. But being good doesn't absolve you of fair criticism, and Tomlin deserves plenty of it for how he has handled subordinate hires/retention and player development in the last 5 years.

Very little of the negative stuff posted about Tomlin here has been undeserved. He struggles to beat good teams (48-34-2 but negative points differential in the last 5 years). He's done absolutely zilch in the playoffs for a very long time. And to the extent that he's been saddled with bad QBs, he's partially made those situations worse by hiring unqualified people. All of that is reasonable opinion grounded in facts.

Also, stability can ensure a certain floor. Often times, a new coach means a personnel overhaul to fit a new scheme and a soft (or total) rebuilding of the roster. We've not had to endure that, and we've taken advantage of plenty of teams who have - racking up plenty of wins the past few seasons against scrubs, while barely belonging on the same playing field against the class of the league.

 

[lilspainishflea]

Also, stability can ensure a certain floor. Often times, a new coach means a personnel overhaul to fit a new scheme and a soft (or total) rebuilding of the roster. We've not had to endure that, and we've taken advantage of plenty of teams who have - racking up plenty of wins the past few seasons against scrubs, while barely belonging on the same playing field against the class of the league.

Your comment brought me back to the Patriots game last year. In every respect, one that we should have won. Tomlin always seems to have at least 1 stinker to a truly awful team and last year was no different with the 3-10 Patriots beating him at home.

One interesting thing to me is how bad Tomlin was against Belichik. 3-10 lifetime and still a losing record (1-2) in games where the Pats didn't have Tom Brady (the W was against Cassel and the Ls Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe). I think the overwhelming one-sidedness of the losses against the Pats, and especially the 2023 loss, are kind of a microcosm of why I think Tomlin is a bit overrated.

 

[CJsE]

Also, stability can ensure a certain floor. Often times, a new coach means a personnel overhaul to fit a new scheme and a soft (or total) rebuilding of the roster. We've not had to endure that, and we've taken advantage of plenty of teams who have - racking up plenty of wins the past few seasons against scrubs, while barely belonging on the same playing field against the class of the league.

You mean like the 5-1 he went against the AFC North this past season? The same AFC North that sent 3 teams to the playoffs and went 31-13 vs other divisions?

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

You mean like the 5-1 he went against the AFC North this past season? The same AFC North that sent 3 teams to the playoffs and went 31-13 vs other divisions?

Two wins against Cincy backup QBs... check.

Beating Baltimore's JV team... check.

Two games we were absolutely handed by Baltimore and Cleveland... check, check.

DTR... che... whoops.

I knew this would be the rebuttal, but I think there is at least some (albeit not total) legitimacy to saying you can throw out the records in divisional games. Beyond that, which of those teams and their brand of football was a real threat to win the Super Bowl? The Lamar Jackson Ravens are just like Tomlin: regular season darlings (granted, they've been much more successful in the regular season as of late).

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Two wins against Cincy backup QBs... check.

Beating Baltimore's JV team... check.

Two games we were absolutely handed by Baltimore and Cleveland... check, check.

DTR... che... whoops.

I knew this would be the rebuttal, but I think there is at least some (albeit not total) legitimacy to saying you can throw out the records in divisional games. Beyond that, which of those teams and their brand of football was a real threat to win the Super Bowl? The Lamar Jackson Ravens are just like Tomlin: regular season darlings (granted, they've been much more successful in the regular season as of late).

dont forget the playoff game against browns when their special teams coach beat Tomlin head to head.

 

[pittdan77]

Two wins against Cincy backup QBs... check.

Beating Baltimore's JV team... check.

Two games we were absolutely handed by Baltimore and Cleveland... check, check.

DTR... che... whoops.

I knew this would be the rebuttal, but I think there is at least some (albeit not total) legitimacy to saying you can throw out the records in divisional games. Beyond that, which of those teams and their brand of football was a real threat to win the Super Bowl? The Lamar Jackson Ravens are just like Tomlin: regular season darlings (granted, they've been much more successful in the regular season as of late).

I don't know how it happens but the division has a way of laying down for the Steelers. Not every year but sheesh.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

I don't know how it happens but the division has a way of laying down for the Steelers. Not every year but sheesh.

The number of games we haven't had to face Lamar Jackson in since he's been there is wild. I think it's like over half.

But yes - it does seem to be a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent. That wildcard game against the Browns back in the early 2000's probably tops the list. But that Bengals playoff implosion with Pacman and company isn't too far behind. And then there was the flat out bad luck with the Kimo/Palmer incident when we won the Super Bowl.

Kind of the exact inverse with the Pirates, who always find ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against the Brewers, Cardinals...well, everybody.

 

[Mikefln]

And Tomlin never had to rebuild his team nor his coaching staff until recently - and we've seen how that's gone. Secondly, Cowher didn't walk into a team that was two seasons removed from a Super Bowl and was loaded on defense, oh....and with a FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK. Like I said in a previous post - context matters.

You also forgot to mention, one was smart enough to hire Dick LeBeau twice, the other was a 4-3 defensive coach and told we are running a 3-4 and do not interfere with LeBeau, the defense is his.

 

[PittPharm2002]

Poor mediocre Mike. The coach so incredibly talented and in demand that he can’t get his ownership to give him the budget to hire good coaches but yet signs an extension with said cheap ownership.

You’re reaching new levels of stupid. Congrats

Ownership is in the business of making money . End of story
Do 5 minutes of research , I’m not spoonfeeding you again

 

[Pitt79]

Guess it's not surprising that you wouldn't know there are already a black coaches in the HOF. They can vote now too in case you were trying to catch up.

Why should it be something that I care about, I never tought about race until it became the overarching obsession of society, I forgot about Dungy. It doesn't matter to me.

 

[CJsE]

Two wins against Cincy backup QBs... check.

Beating Baltimore's JV team... check.

Two games we were absolutely handed by Baltimore and Cleveland... check, check.

DTR... che... whoops.

I knew this would be the rebuttal, but I think there is at least some (albeit not total) legitimacy to saying you can throw out the records in divisional games. Beyond that, which of those teams and their brand of football was a real threat to win the Super Bowl? The Lamar Jackson Ravens are just like Tomlin: regular season darlings (granted, they've been much more successful in the regular season as of late).

Tomlin also had a backup QB for two of those three that you mention, some would argue he had a backup QB for all of his wins last season. The Steelers were one of three teams to make the playoffs and play against 13+ teams with .500+ records.

I guess the only other non-scrub teams we can look at as decent wins are
10-Win Rams *Playoff Team
9-Win Seattle
9-Win Green Bay *Playoff Team
8-Win Las Vegas

I wonder how many teams had 5 wins over playoff teams last year in the regular season.

If throwing out records for divisional games was true then how did New England win 16 division titles in 17 years? Maybe the rest of the AFC East forgot they can just throw out the record when playing against them. Throwing out records for divisional games is non-sense hype speak. Broadcasters throw it out there to hype the game, coaches throw it out there so fire up their team or keep them from being complacent.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Tomlin also had a backup QB for two of those three that you mention, some would argue he had a backup QB for all of his wins last season. The Steelers were one of three teams to make the playoffs and play against 13+ teams with .500+ records.

I guess the only other non-scrub teams we can look at as decent wins are
10-Win Rams *Playoff Team
9-Win Seattle
9-Win Green Bay *Playoff Team
8-Win Las Vegas

I wonder how many teams had 5 wins over playoff teams last year in the regular season.

If throwing out records for divisional games was true then how did New England win 16 division titles in 17 years? Maybe the rest of the AFC East forgot they can just throw out the record when playing against them. Throwing out records for divisional games is non-sense hype speak. Broadcasters throw it out there to hype the game, coaches throw it out there so fire up their team or keep them from being complacent.

I'm supposed to be impressed by 8 and 9-win teams in a 17-game schedule? I was talking about the class of the league, not the lower deck of the Titanic. Not to mention the fact that we caught a few of those teams when they were flat out bad, and they ended up catching a little fire after we played them.

Can we do the losing consecutive games to teams that only had two wins that late in the season next? Because I'm pretty sure Mike T. now holds sole possession of first place for that notorious distinction.

And AFC North games have been rock fights that could go either way lately. Let's instead look at it from a championship-caliber perspective. Here is how we've fared lately against teams that made the Super Bowl in those seasons.

2023 49ers - lost by 23
2022 Eagles - lost by 22
2021 Bengals - lost by 14 and lost by 31

 

[pittbb80]

I think this is all fair and reasonable.

I never said and have never believed that the Steelers should fire Tomlin. I don't think this extension, nor the alleged massive raise, was particularly needed given his current results. He was a great coach and now I think that he's a good coach who underachieves because he has weaknesses or blind spots related to scheme and hiring. He'd get hired elsewhere quickly because he's a good coach. But being good doesn't absolve you of fair criticism, and Tomlin deserves plenty of it for how he has handled subordinate hires/retention and player development in the last 5 years.

Very little of the negative stuff posted about Tomlin here has been undeserved. He struggles to beat good teams (48-34-2 but negative points differential in the last 5 years). He's done absolutely zilch in the playoffs for a very long time. And to the extent that he's been saddled with bad QBs, he's partially made those situations worse by hiring unqualified people. All of that is reasonable opinion grounded in facts.

You forgot to add that his teams of recent years generally lose one or two games they have no business losing because the team doesn’t show up

 

[pittbb80]

Ownership is in the business of making money . End of story
Do 5 minutes of research , I’m not spoonfeeding you again

lol your moronic quip doesn’t refute the basic facts. The same ownership let cowher and noll hire great assistants. If Tomlin is hamstrung so badly by cheap ownership he clearly has no problem staying around A guy who’s such a great coach could easily walk but he just signed another extension. But keep coming up with idiotic response to defend an indefensible position It’s what you do and why you’re recognized as one of the clowns on the board

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

lol your moronic quip doesn’t refute the basic facts. The same ownership let cowher and noll hire great assistants. If Tomlin is hamstrung so badly by cheap ownership he clearly has no problem staying around A guy who’s such a great coach could easily walk but he just signed another extension. But keep coming up with idiotic response to defend an indefensible position It’s what you do and why you’re recognized as one of the clowns on the board

Yes, that truly is the dumbest argument I could possibly think of. They're so cheap, but they're paying Mike Tomlin a top 5 salary instead of going out and getting someone for less than half that cost. But coordinators, who might make like $1M, is where they draw the line! Need to save a couple hundred thousand there, as opposed to letting Tomlin hire someone who might lead us to a deep playoff run that would include millions more in fan revenue.

Like, what?! Tomlin hires who he wants to hire. The end.

 

[pittbb80]

Yes, that truly is the dumbest argument I could possibly think of. They're so cheap, but they're paying Mike Tomlin a top 5 salary instead of going out and getting someone for less than half that cost. But coordinators, who might make like $1M, is where they draw the line! Need to save a couple hundred thousand there, as opposed to letting Tomlin hire someone who might lead us to a deep playoff run that would include millions more in fan revenue.

Like, what?! Tomlin hires who he wants to hire. The end.

Reports are he’s now the second highest paid coach next to Reid.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

If you want to ignore the one who has a Super Bowl ring

Are you referring to Arians? If so, it only prover everyone else's point. He was a Cowher holdover that Tomlin showed the door, right after he got him to two Superbowls. Which we all know, they haven't sniffed since.

The best assistants Tomlin's had on staff were Cowher holdovers. Guys he's brought in have been generally horrible outside of Munchak.

I'm fine with him being the coach, but I wouldn't allow him to make any staff decisions. It's by far his biggest weakness. It's almost impossible for someone to coach as long as him and have no tree. Law of averages says you get lucky sooner or later.

 

[Mikefln]

I'm fine with him being the coach, but I wouldn't allow him to make any staff decisions.

I agree with everything you said except this. It was one thing when he was hired as HC to make him retain certain coaches. It was his first time being a head coach, and honestly he was only a DC for 1 year so it's not like he had a huge body of work or even an established network to give him thise reigns. But now we are talking about a HC with over 17 years HC experience under his belt. If you need to hold their hand as much as you state, then both parties should want to go their separate ways.

 

[pittdan77]

I agree with everything you said except this. It was one thing when he was hired as HC to make him retain certain coaches. It was his first time being a head coach, and honestly he was only a DC for 1 year so it's not like he had a huge body of work or even an established network to give him thise reigns. But now we are talking about a HC with over 17 years HC experience under his belt. If you need to hold their hand as much as you state, then both parties should want to go their separate ways.

Matt Canada being promoted and then allowed to stay in that position for that long is enough evidence to support that statement.

 

[303vND]

Matt Canada being hired promoted and then allowed to stay in that position for that long is enough evidence to support that statement.

Fixed!

 

[CJsE]

I'm supposed to be impressed by 8 and 9-win teams in a 17-game schedule? I was talking about the class of the league, not the lower deck of the Titanic. Not to mention the fact that we caught a few of those teams when they were flat out bad, and they ended up catching a little fire after we played them.

Can we do the losing consecutive games to teams that only had two wins that late in the season next? Because I'm pretty sure Mike T. now holds sole possession of first place for that notorious distinction.

And AFC North games have been rock fights that could go either way lately. Let's instead look at it from a championship-caliber perspective. Here is how we've fared lately against teams that made the Super Bowl in those seasons.

2023 49ers - lost by 23
2022 Eagles - lost by 22
2021 Bengals - lost by 14 and lost by 31

Your back must be getting awfully tired from moving the goal posts so often. I wasn't aware that anyone who doesn't play in the Super Bowl is a "scrub." I don't necessarily disagree with many of the arguments against the team, I'm pointing out how incorrect your "scrub" statement was. They had some horrible losses but they beat quality teams in a top 5 Strength of Schedule and made the playoffs with a roster of backup QBs.

The reason that AFC North games have been rock fights is because the AFC North has been the best or 2nd best division for the past decade or so. They have sent the most teams to the playoffs and I'd bet they have the best, or close to the best, record vs inter-division opponents over that time span.

 

[pittbb80]

I agree with everything you said except this. It was one thing when he was hired as HC to make him retain certain coaches. It was his first time being a head coach, and honestly he was only a DC for 1 year so it's not like he had a huge body of work or even an established network to give him thise reigns. But now we are talking about a HC with over 17 years HC experience under his belt. If you need to hold their hand as much as you state, then both parties should want to go their separate ways.

This. If you think he’s awful at picking assistants then he’s not the guy for the job You never hire a guy to run the organization and then micromanage how he runs it. You either agree with his approach or find someone else

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Your back must be getting awfully tired from moving the goal posts so often. I wasn't aware that anyone who doesn't play in the Super Bowl is a "scrub." I don't necessarily disagree with many of the arguments against the team, I'm pointing out how incorrect your "scrub" statement was. They had some horrible losses but they beat quality teams in a top 5 Strength of Schedule and made the playoffs with a roster of backup QBs.

The reason that AFC North games have been rock fights is because the AFC North has been the best or 2nd best division for the past decade or so. They have sent the most teams to the playoffs and I'd bet they have the best, or close to the best, record vs inter-division opponents over that time span.

I said we have racked up plenty of wins against scrubs (we have) and barely belonged on the same playing field against the class of the league (we haven't). So you're trying to construe my words into me saying that every single team we beat is a scrub. No, I didn't say that. I'm also not overly impressed that we beat some teams that barely cracked .500 or had their JV squad out there.

Baltimore at home was by far the Steelers' best win. It only took 65 dropped passes, but they got it done. Other than that once in a lifetime lucky charm festival, not blown away.

And no - the reason the AFC North games are rock fights is because the Ravens were 1st in rushing attempts; the Browns were 4th; and the Steelers were 9th.

Or if we look at run/pass ratio, it's Baltimore 1st, the Steelers 5th, and Cleveland 13th.

No matter how you slice it, the formula is there for some close, low-scoring games between those teams... which is what usually happens. I don't deny Tomlin's ability to muddy up a game like that and turn it into a coin flip. But it only works if the other team plays along. If we're playing a good offense that wants to air it out and not get into a rock fight with us, the game is over before it begins. That's my point: we cannot keep up with the class of the league. There is a certain brand of team we simply will not be competitive with while playing this style of football.

 

[lilspainishflea]

I said we have racked up plenty of wins against scrubs (we have) and barely belonged on the same playing field against the class of the league (we haven't). So you're trying to construe my words into me saying that every single team we beat is a scrub. No, I didn't say that. I'm also not overly impressed that we beat some teams that barely cracked .500 or had their JV squad out there.

Baltimore at home was by far the Steelers' best win. It only took 65 dropped passes, but they got it done. Other than that once in a lifetime lucky charm festival, not blown away.

And no - the reason the AFC North games are rock fights is because the Ravens were 1st in rushing attempts; the Browns were 4th; and the Steelers were 9th.

Or if we look at run/pass ratio, it's Baltimore 1st, the Steelers 5th, and Cleveland 13th.

No matter how you slice it, the formula is there for some close, low-scoring games between those teams... which is what usually happens. I don't deny Tomlin's ability to muddy up a game like that and turn it into a coin flip. But it only works if the other team plays along. If we're playing a good offense that wants to air it out and not get into a rock fight with us, the game is over before it begins. That's my point: we cannot keep up with the class of the league.

This is a good point. The Steelers are winning close games against bad teams and losing bigtime to good teams.

Last year, their average margin in a win was 7.4. But this was hugely helped by a 23 point win against a Bengals team without Burrow or Ja'Marr Chase. It was their only win by over 7 points all year. Their average margin in a loss was -13.5 points. Almost two touchdowns.

2021 (I wanted to look at a non-Pickett year) was similar. Only 2 wins by 8 or more. Average margin in a win was 5 and average margin in a loss was -15.4. Over two touchdowns. 3 times as many losses by more 21 or more than wins by 9 or more.

So Tomlin is able to beat a lot of bad teams in a close game but he gives the Steelers absolutely no chance to win a game big and when he loses it tends to be really, really ugly.

I think he's benefitted a lot from the structure of the NFL where something like 1/4 of the teams are basically mailing it in during any given year because they're changing their roster or leadership. Tomlin does better than them but gets the doors absolutely blown off by most of the top 10 teams.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

This is a good point. The Steelers are winning close games against bad teams and losing bigtime to good teams.

Last year, their average margin in a win was 7.4. But this was hugely helped by a 23 point win against a Bengals team without Burrow or Ja'Marr Chase. It was their only win by over 7 points all year. Their average margin in a loss was -13.5 points. Almost two touchdowns.

2021 (I wanted to look at a non-Pickett year) was similar. Only 2 wins by 8 or more. Average margin in a win was 5 and average margin in a loss was -15.4. Over two touchdowns. 3 times as many losses by more 21 or more than wins by 9 or more.

So Tomlin is able to beat a lot of bad teams in a close game but he gives the Steelers absolutely no chance to win a game big and when he loses it tends to be really, really ugly.

I think he's benefitted a lot from the structure of the NFL where something like 1/4 of the teams are basically mailing it in during any given year because they're changing their roster or leadership. Tomlin does better than them but gets the doors absolutely blown off by most of the top 10 teams.

Yes, Tomlin comes alive at the end of the season when many teams have thrown in the towel: coaches are lame ducks; players have been shut down; etc.

So he tries to keep games close and capitalize on a bounce here or there, and he keeps his teams from completely quitting on the season for the most part. I don't deny him those things; they just don't impress me. That might be cool for a brand new head coach or a franchise that isn't used to making the playoffs. I just think the standard should be higher for a 17-year coach who is coaching one of the top franchises, historically, in the league.

Tomlin is the guy who shows up to every event in a white button-down dress shirt with a black tie. Isn't going to show up on any "best dressed" or any "worse dressed" lists. Just plays it safe and will always look decent.

But we'll see how many of these breaks he continues to get as Watt ages, because I can think of quite a few plays he's made over the last few years that have been the difference in these low scoring bore fests.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

And it's probably not even just Tomlin I'm criticizing. It's probably the organization as a whole, for doing stupid things like holding onto Ben for too long AND throwing away an entire draft by trying to get Ben some "win now" pieces. Just a total lack of realistic awareness. It's the same reason I would trade Watt now. You can either watch him age out while achieving nothing or you can at least flip him for some future pieces. Might have to take a step back to take a few forward, but we don't seem to be willing to do that and we remain in limbo as a result. But even if Tomlin doesn't get any blame for some of that, I can at least say he isn't an offensive innovator... and that's something that is a huge asset nowadays.

 

[CJsE]

I said we have racked up plenty of wins against scrubs (we have) and barely belonged on the same playing field against the class of the league (we haven't). So you're trying to construe my words into me saying that every single team we beat is a scrub. No, I didn't say that. I'm also not overly impressed that we beat some teams that barely cracked .500 or had their JV squad out there.

Baltimore at home was by far the Steelers' best win. It only took 65 dropped passes, but they got it done. Other than that once in a lifetime lucky charm festival, not blown away.

And no - the reason the AFC North games are rock fights is because the Ravens were 1st in rushing attempts; the Browns were 4th; and the Steelers were 9th.

Or if we look at run/pass ratio, it's Baltimore 1st, the Steelers 5th, and Cleveland 13th.

No matter how you slice it, the formula is there for some close, low-scoring games between those teams... which is what usually happens. I don't deny Tomlin's ability to muddy up a game like that and turn it into a coin flip. But it only works if the other team plays along. If we're playing a good offense that wants to air it out and not get into a rock fight with us, the game is over before it begins. That's my point: we cannot keep up with the class of the league. There is a certain brand of team we simply will not be competitive with while playing this style of football.

The AFC North's tendency to run must mean that those are low scoring teams then right? Since that's what you're describing is that these are low scoring games because the teams run a lot.

Baltimore - #4 Scoring team in the NFL - 1st in scoring margin (20th and 8th in 2022)
Cleveland - #10 Scoring team in the NFL - 14th in scoring margin (17th and 17th in 2022)
Cincinnati - #16 Scoring team in the NFL - 17th in scoring margin ( 7th and 6th in 2022)

So all of them are average to above average NFL scoring teams in 2023 and 2022. Oh yeah and they also sent 5 teams to the playoffs in those two seasons.

I won't argue that the Steelers' offense wasn't pathetic, they absolutely were, but Tomlin still finds a way to win against solid opponents. I also won't argue that he loses to garbage teams that he shouldn't, because he absolutely has a habit of that.

 

[CJsE]

Yes, Tomlin comes alive at the end of the season when many teams have thrown in the towel: coaches are lame ducks; players have been shut down; etc.

Tomlin's record through week 10 the last few years. (Week 10 because that's just over half the season in a 17 game schedule accounting for the bye. If you want week 9, remove 1 win from every year and the tie because he's 4-0-1 in week 10 games.)
6-3
3-6
5-3-1
9-0
5-4

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Tomlin's record through week 10 the last few years. (Week 10 because that's just over half the season in a 17 game schedule accounting for the bye. If you want week 9, remove 1 win from every year and the tie because he's 4-0-1 in week 10 games.)
6-3
3-6
5-3-1
9-0
5-4

2021: 4-2 in the last 6. So that's a .667 winning %, which is much better than the 52.9 winning % they had for the entire season.

2022: 6-1 in the last 7. Not bad for a team that only won 9 games all season.

2023: Won the last three. Cincy was ready for golf season, and Baltimore's JV team just wanted to stay dry. But Non-losin' Mike didn't lost his team, so that is good. Beat two backup QBs and Geno Smith. But I guess he's a Pro Bowler, right?

Tomlin's wins are like when Yokozuna beat the Undertaker at the '94 Royal Rumble with the help of the entire heel locker room. They still count, but...

 

[lilspainishflea]

2021: 4-2 in the last 6. So that's a .667 winning %, which is much better than the 52.9 winning % they had for the entire season.

2022: 6-1 in the last 7. Not bad for a team that only won 9 games all season.

2023: Won the last three. Cincy was ready for golf season, and Baltimore's JV team just wanted to stay dry. But Non-losin' Mike didn't lost his team, so that is good. Beat two backup QBs and Geno Smith. But I guess he's a Pro Bowler, right?

Tomlin's wins are like when Yokozuna beat the Undertaker at the '94 Royal Rumble with the help of the entire heel locker room. They still count, but...

Tomlin's record last 5 years: 48-34-1...almost 58%. Almost 9.8 wins per year. Pretty good on the surface. But again that comes with a -23 point scoring differential. He's had a negative differential in 4 of the last 5 seasons. In his previous 12 seasons he never had a negative differential.

NFL teams don't play a lot of games and the games themselves can be fluky so scoring differential tells you a lot about a team's true quality. Bad teams don't score and they give up a lot of points. So generally, for a team to be "good," they have to score more than they give up. That's a better measure of who the good teams are than just making the playoffs based on the fortuitous alchemy of unbalanced scheduling, injuries, etc.

In 2023, the Steelers (-1.9ppg) were the worst scoring differential team to make the playoffs and one of only two teams with a negative differential. The others were the Eagles (-1ppg) who got annihilated 32-9 by the Bucs.

2022 looks kind of weird with 5 negative teams making the playoffs: Miami, Minnesota, Seattle, NY Giants (-1.6ppg), and Tampa (-3.4ppg). But the first three of those teams were negative by -.7 ppg or less, so they were close to breaking even. And 4 of the 5 were in the NFC which suggests that the NFC was just bad all around and maybe even getting beaten up a lot in games against AFC teams but those games mattered less for playoff determination.

In 2021, the Steelers were again the only playoff team with a negative scoring differential. -4.2ppg. This is the biggest playoff outlier since at least 2016. Could be longer, I just stopped looking.

In 2020, only Washington (-.1ppg), and the Bears (-.6ppg) made it as negative scoring teams but they were both very close.

The only negative scoring differential team to advance in the playoffs from 2020-2023 was the 2022 NY Giants. And they played another negative scoring differential team in the Vikings.

It's pretty clear that the Steelers are an outlier. Not only do negative scoring teams generally not make the playoffs, the Steelers are the only team to somehow have done it twice in the last 4 years AND both of those teams were 2 of the worst 3 to make the playoffs based on scoring differential. Finally, even when these teams make the playoffs, almost none of them advance. They are a combined 1-9, and the one win was against another negative team. Even in that rosy case, the winner went on to lose 38-7 the following week.

So if you look under the hood, the Steelers are a bit of a Fugazi. Some flukiness has kept Tomlin afloat and the numbers say the ceiling is a double-digit 1st round playoff loss.

I think the Steelers could do better.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Tomlin's record last 5 years: 48-34-1...almost 58%. Almost 9.8 wins per year. Pretty good on the surface. But again that comes with a -23 point scoring differential. He's had a negative differential in 4 of the last 5 seasons. In his previous 12 seasons he never had a negative differential.

NFL teams don't play a lot of games and the games themselves can be fluky so scoring differential tells you a lot about a team's true quality. Bad teams don't score and they give up a lot of points. So generally, for a team to be "good," they have to score more than they give up. That's a better measure of who the good teams are than just making the playoffs.

In 2023, the Steelers (-1.9ppg) were the worst scoring differential team to make the playoffs and one of only two teams with a negative differential. The others were the Eagles (-1ppg) who got annihilated 32-9 by the Bucs.

2022 looks kind of weird with 5 negative teams making the playoffs: Miami, Minnesota, Seattle, NY Giants (-1.6ppg), and Tampa (-3.4ppg). But the first three of those teams were negative by -.7 ppg or less, so they were close to breaking even. And 4 of the 5 were in the NFC which suggests that the NFC was just worse and maybe getting beaten up a lot in games against AFC teams.

In 2021, the Steelers were again the only playoff team with a negative scoring differential. -4.2ppg. This is the biggest playoff outlier since 2016. I just stopped looking.

In 2020, only Washington (-.1ppg), and the Bears (-.6ppg) made it as negative scoring teams but they were both very close.

It's pretty clear that the Steelers are an outlier. Not only do negative scoring teams generally not make the playoffs, the Steelers have somehow done it twice in the last 4 years AND both of those teams were 2 of the worst 3 to achieve it.

So if you look under the hood, the Steelers are a bit of a Fugazi.

That mostly jives with what I'm seeing. Sure, you can say Tomlin does a little more with less. My gripe lies more with the fact that we have been less for this long. I get it: his magic trick is sneaking into the playoffs when we're not very good. After 5 years of this, however, it would be cool to actually be good again.

 

[pittdan77]

That mostly jives with what I'm seeing. Sure, you can say Tomlin does a little more with less. My gripe lies more with the fact that we have been less for this long. I get it: his magic trick is sneaking into the playoffs when we're not very good. After 5 years of this, however, it would be cool to actually be good again.

It's important to recognize that he's a part of the engine that keeps the franchise saddled with less.

 

[PittPharm2002]

Tomlin will get in for the same reason the media fawns all over him and never criticizes him, because he's the poster boy for "you see black guys really can coach" they're scared to death to point out valid criticism in the current Woke World we live in-scared of being called racist and cancelled, the reality is, he's a good, but not a great coach. HE WILL MAKE THE HALL OF FAME! Mostly to SCREAM, "1st black coach in the HOF!!!"

Cause he’s never had a losing season as a coach ?
Hey stupid - Tony Dungy has been in the HOF for 8 years

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Cause he’s never had a losing season as a coach ?
Hey stupid - Tony Dungy has been in the HOF for 8 years

It's such a dumb stat. I could just as easily say, "He's had three non-winning seasons and it would have been four if not for the addition of the 17th game!" Who cares?

Like I said, most coaches walk into messes. It's the reason there was a change in the first place. So a winning - sorry, non-losing - season in the first year or two is basically out of the question.

Bengals fans got sick of Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis for going 10-6, 11-5, 10-5-1, and 12-4 and flaming out in the playoffs. But here are Tomlin's last six years, which include no playoff wins:

9-6
8-8
12-4 (weird Covid season)
9-7
9-8
10-7

Like, it that good? Would the Cowboys retain a coach who did that? Would the Packers? Seriously, tell me what teams would retain a coach who did that. I need to know. There aren't many. They'd look at that and say, "Gee, that's great and all, but we're kind of looking to get to that next level."

Tomlin is resting on the laurels of 15 years ago, meanwhile New England just pushed out a dude who won six of them and got there nine times. It's beyond bananas.

 

[pittdan77]

Tomlin is resting on the laurels of 15 years ago, meanwhile New England just pushed out a dude who won six of them and got there nine times. It's beyond bananas.

It's almost like winning a championship means more in other places because the rest of the league seems to recognize that Belichick just isn't going to engineer a championship without a GOAT QB. Tomlin is struggling to win playoff games but the Steelers are going to play it safe because they can control the media narrative and most of the fan base wants to cling to the "never had a losing season" nonsense.

 

[Mikefln]

most of the fan base wants to cling to the "never had a losing season" nonsense.

You had me till that last sentence. I do not have a poll to look at as evidence so this is entirely anecdotal. From what I hear when speaking to people is most fans are sick of hearing about that.

It is almost like they want to get a losing season just so they do not need to hear about it anymore. I come across only a few people who hold onto the no losing season mantra with pride.