The only thing that matters is TV. Granted, nobody watches Cal, Stanford, and SMU because they suck but the idea is that if they get good, people will watch them. With WVU, you are going to get consistent ratings, low ratings from their meth-head local fanbase. Just no room for growth there.
Worst possible time for the program to flounder
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The only thing that matters is TV. Granted, nobody watches Cal, Stanford, and SMU because they suck but the idea is that if they get good, people will watch them. With WVU, you are going to get consistent ratings, low ratings from their meth-head local fanbase. Just no room for growth there.
But here's the problem, and Paco reverted back to it. There is a fallacy to "market size" concerning college football. Especially in regards to "potential" fans. Rutgers is a perfect example of this. You have fanbase size, not market size. Pittsburgh is a much bigger market than the 717/814 area code, but Penn State's fanbase dwarfs Pitt's. WVU is a small state, but there are an incredibly higher percentage of engaged fans than there are here for Pitt. Looking at market sizes in regards to the TV attractiveness is outdated and proven to be false.
Yet the conference networks are entirely dependent on that market model that is currently responsible for bringing in millions a year in actual dollars to each member school. Not future hypothetical dollars, real dollars now.
And, outside of about 10 total schools, what brings "eyeballs" for the streaming or ratings model, is primarily timeslot, exclusivity of timeslot, and the prominence of the network it is shown on. So to boil it down, what underlies receiving those preferred broadcast slots in college football is the little number to the left of a schools name on the score ticker. The maximum potential eyeballs on Rutgers is enormously bigger than WVU, the latter of which is pretty much maxed out because its tiny market and smallish alumni base. The entire reason Pitt does not have whatever numbers one would want in media "eyeballs" is not because of market, but because of decades of not consistently having one of those little numbers to the left of its name in the score ticker.
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The B12 hodgepodge will probably be there. Maybe enough are invited to have an eastern division to keep it above vomit stage.
One of the current expectations across the country (not just at Syracuse, Pitt or other lesser ACC brands) is that there’s going to be this big conference expansion by the XII if the haves in the ACC depart.
Specifically, many posters on here stated that the XII “would love to have us”. I vehemently disagree with that notion. We needed to add in order to stabilize the conference, which happened, despite not having any power brands. Many thought that adding schools for the XII was laughable in that they were only measuring it compared to the total landscape (including the power 2). The conference and its fans on social media continued to reiterate that it was merely to be the 3rd best conference, in the long run once the ACC haves depart. ACC fans were laughing and plugging ears because they didn’t want to think that Clemson, FSU, eventually UNC, etc would leave. And then as soon as the lawsuits hit, those same ACC stalwarts exclaimed “Well, we knew this was going to happen”….all of which makes me think many posters are merely posting for hope, affirmation, etc, as opposed to responding to the information emerging.
It’s not just the XII that makes this decision. It’s the carriers. And that’s why I don’t think there’s this big conference that emerges once the ACC implodes (if it implodes). The $$ that are being paid out by the carriers are drying up, relatively speaking, compared to even 2-3 years ago.
You can see that proud programs like Oregon, Washington and CERTAINLY FSU (UNC will get a full share) will only fetch partial shares from the Power 2.
My entire point is that there’s no difference in discernible value between every ACC school not named UNC, FSU and maybe Clemson and the XII schools from a practical, TV distribution $$ standpoint. They’re all the same, period. Some schools have larger alumni bases. Some have better athletic brands. Some have larger audiences from residents/former state residents because of “only game in town” factor, etc.
There’s zero reason to add “just for the sake of adding”. I do think the XII would reach out to Louisville, VPI, Duke, and NCSU, if they were available, for various reasons. Some to provide eastern partners/presence to current XII schools, some for hoops and some for culture/identity of large land-grant schools, etc. WVU is essentially K-State, Texas Tech and Iowa St. I’ve been to all 4 campuses and they’re all similar with rich traditions, etc. Red state football/culture. Not saying that last point because of politics…merely culture and proud fan bases that really support football. The additions coming in next year also are larger state schools.
I would say the same thing about WVU and others being left out if ACC was the conference to survive, although I wouldn’t be surprised if WVU was added because of rivalries with many schools in ACC (notably Pitt, VPI and Louisville). None of the remaining ACC and XII schools matter in the grand scheme of things, from the TV procurement standpoint.
The ACC’s identity (and Big East before) was NOT conducive to WVU. Geography was literally the only reason WVU was associated with those schools. Culturally, it was a clash (although I do enjoy the Backyard Brawl and Black Diamond games).
My expectation is that the ACC will survive and look something like Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Wake, Memphis, SMU, Cal and Stanford, maybe Washington St/Oregon St, Colorado St, USF, etc. It wouldn’t be a power 2 conference but neither is the XII.
**Edit: After additional thought, I think it makes most sense to have two lesser conferences in order to maximize football fan engagement. Having this monster 24-28 team league would dilute the product in Nov/Dec to fewer eyeballs. All of these teams are much lesser than Power 2 and the carriers would want to maximize viewership and part of that strategy includes having more teams “in the running” later in the season. That is infinitely more critical for two lesser leagues than Power 2….where Iowa, Ole Miss fans are going to watch regardless.
Specifically, many posters on here stated that the XII “would love to have us”. I vehemently disagree with that notion. We needed to add in order to stabilize the conference, which happened, despite not having any power brands. Many thought that adding schools for the XII was laughable in that they were only measuring it compared to the total landscape (including the power 2). The conference and its fans on social media continued to reiterate that it was merely to be the 3rd best conference, in the long run once the ACC haves depart. ACC fans were laughing and plugging ears because they didn’t want to think that Clemson, FSU, eventually UNC, etc would leave. And then as soon as the lawsuits hit, those same ACC stalwarts exclaimed “Well, we knew this was going to happen”….all of which makes me think many posters are merely posting for hope, affirmation, etc, as opposed to responding to the information emerging.
It’s not just the XII that makes this decision. It’s the carriers. And that’s why I don’t think there’s this big conference that emerges once the ACC implodes (if it implodes). The $$ that are being paid out by the carriers are drying up, relatively speaking, compared to even 2-3 years ago.
You can see that proud programs like Oregon, Washington and CERTAINLY FSU (UNC will get a full share) will only fetch partial shares from the Power 2.
My entire point is that there’s no difference in discernible value between every ACC school not named UNC, FSU and maybe Clemson and the XII schools from a practical, TV distribution $$ standpoint. They’re all the same, period. Some schools have larger alumni bases. Some have better athletic brands. Some have larger audiences from residents/former state residents because of “only game in town” factor, etc.
There’s zero reason to add “just for the sake of adding”. I do think the XII would reach out to Louisville, VPI, Duke, and NCSU, if they were available, for various reasons. Some to provide eastern partners/presence to current XII schools, some for hoops and some for culture/identity of large land-grant schools, etc. WVU is essentially K-State, Texas Tech and Iowa St. I’ve been to all 4 campuses and they’re all similar with rich traditions, etc. Red state football/culture. Not saying that last point because of politics…merely culture and proud fan bases that really support football. The additions coming in next year also are larger state schools.
I would say the same thing about WVU and others being left out if ACC was the conference to survive, although I wouldn’t be surprised if WVU was added because of rivalries with many schools in ACC (notably Pitt, VPI and Louisville). None of the remaining ACC and XII schools matter in the grand scheme of things, from the TV procurement standpoint.
The ACC’s identity (and Big East before) was NOT conducive to WVU. Geography was literally the only reason WVU was associated with those schools. Culturally, it was a clash (although I do enjoy the Backyard Brawl and Black Diamond games).
My expectation is that the ACC will survive and look something like Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Wake, Memphis, SMU, Cal and Stanford, maybe Washington St/Oregon St, Colorado St, USF, etc. It wouldn’t be a power 2 conference but neither is the XII.
**Edit: After additional thought, I think it makes most sense to have two lesser conferences in order to maximize football fan engagement. Having this monster 24-28 team league would dilute the product in Nov/Dec to fewer eyeballs. All of these teams are much lesser than Power 2 and the carriers would want to maximize viewership and part of that strategy includes having more teams “in the running” later in the season. That is infinitely more critical for two lesser leagues than Power 2….where Iowa, Ole Miss fans are going to watch regardless.
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I understand that but WVU has a very low ceiling. Everyone in the state is watching every week whether they are 10-0 or 0-10. No room for growth. And its a very low income audience for sponsors. Cal & Stanford get terrible ratings because they suck but they have a high ceiling, well especially Cal if they get good being a public. Like lets say there was a Cal version of Dabo Swinney that was winning NC's. That program would bring massive ratings. Unlikely? Yes. But that's how networks think. They want the potential eyeballs.
You really are a moron. Pitt could offer to waive all TV rights and even offer to pay the SEC....and they still wouldn't take them and their 1300 fans. Pitt has a notoriously bad reputation when it comes to fan engagement & support and your TV numbers stink except when playing ND or WVU.
You think the SEC takes your community college in a much worse TV market and only slightly better program over Pitt? If anything, Acrisure Stadium would be a selling point over Mountaineer Field because 20K-30K fans from visiting schools can come.
I think the thing our toothless brethren from the heart of Appalachia are not understanding is that eventually Pitt and WVU are going to be in the same conference, whether that is the ACC, Big XII or some other unknown conference remains to be seen. An annual Brawl would be great for ratings as would the buildup to it.
This may be unpopular to some, but it’s a well thought out post. Always enjoy a fresh take. Unfortunately, there’s a lot more “have nots” than “haves” and both of belong to the former when it comes to conference realignment.
I just wish we could fast forward 10-20 years and get to a point of stabilization. Personally, I’m a proponent of separating football from the rest of the conference affiliations. Let basketball and the other sports return to regional conferences while football creates their national super leagues and tiers akin to English football and the Premier League.
Once the ACC defectors split off, I think the remaining members and the Big 12 (plus Oregon State and Washington State) would be best served coming together and forming a mega conference.
There’d be strength in numbers when it comes to negotiating TV revenue, and there’d actually be a place for a “best of the rest” league below the Big Ten and SEC, especially with the amount of programming that’d come with it. We could setup multiple deals with Disney and FOX that’d keep us at our current status quo.
Yes but no Washington State. Need the best programs/markets: I think FSU, Clem, UVa, UNC, and Miami are gone. Colorado will be also. So:
Pitt
Syr
VT
NC State
Duke
Lou
GT
WVU
Cincy
UCF
Kansas (not the duplicate)
Arizona (not the duplicate)
Utah (not the duplicate)
Cal
Stanford
TCU
SMU (need duplicates in Bay Area & DFW)
OK St
TT
No for Wake, BC, Iowa State, KSt, ASU, BYU, maybe Baylor.
Add San Diego State, Colorado State, UConn, Oregon State
Respectfully, BYU is a must-have for any merger like this. They were the only revenue-positive addition among the initial four Big 12 expansion teams. Large, national fan base that spends like a P5 school.
You also can’t drop Arizona State or a few of the other Big 13 and then turn around and add schools like Colorado State. I get BC or Wake, but those schools have decent value to them.
It’s amazing the ACC has been so shortsighted on expanding?
Honestly they should merge with the Big 12
3 “super “ conferences yippie
It makes you wonder how things would’ve fared for the ACC if they added Rutgers and WVU when us and Syracuse came in. The two biggest differences I see with this happening are:
1. We prevent the Big 12 from adding WVU. I’d imagine they likely add Louisville instead.
2. Does the Big Ten still invite Maryland if they can’t also add Rutgers? I’m not sure.
Those two moves would’ve simultaneously made the ACC stronger while also (potentially) weakening the competition.
Respectfully, I disagree. I don’t think having one large third conference benefits the current XII members or, more importantly, the carriers. As stated, TWO lesser conferences is better than one for multiple reasons. And I think the conferences look close to my earlier suggestion. There’s zero reason to expand (XII) just to expand. They’ve stabilized already. No reason to add other teams just to do so, with the exception of a few “fits”. And many of the candidates (Pitt, Syracuse, etc) would probably prefer to be aligned with other ACC, metro/private schools anyway.
I’d be surprised, but not stunned, if Pitt and WVU were in same conference when dust settles. I could be wrong but I think the Backyard Brawl is going to be played annually, even if out of conference. That would be a win for both programs. Wouldn’t matter if both schools are in same conference.
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Going back to your previous comment, those are all very valid points. Ideally, you could get everyone to come together to force the media’s hand, but we all know that teams will take the bigger payday with the smaller conferences (like you mentioned).
I doubt it ever comes to this but lets say Pitt wants to be in the Big 12, Pitt tells WVU you either vote or influence our way in or we are never playing you in another sport again.
You cant have BYU in a major league. Their anti-gay stance and refusal to play on Sundays is too much of a problem. They have a good fanbase and all that but its just not worth it. Utah delivers much of that same market. Would rather add even a Colorado State or UNLV than BYU.
I mean, that’s the worst case scenario and also not a totally unlikely scenario. No way a conference like that even gets 1 auto bid to a 12 team playoff. My days of following college football would be over. We need a life raft/ minor miracle to be relevant even the slightest bit.
Huh? So it’s WVU’s decision, alone? Not following your rationale.
Also, WVU wasn’t invited to ACC when it wanted an invite 15 years ago. Don’t remember WVU fans chirping about not wanting to play Pitt. Pitt did what was best for their program/university.
What makes you think WVU needs Pitt? We already routinely sell 55k seats in a 60k stadium when playing just about any P5 program. Yes, we like the Pitt game, but it in no way has any material effect on our financial future. With that said, I suspect WVU admin will throw such an assist to Pitt….even though quite a few of our alum could give two shits about helping Pitt in any way.
Memories are long and Pitt, Syracuse, and BC left us in the lurch when the Big East started to crumble. There will be no shortage of snickering in Morgantown if the reverse occurs in this next re-alignment.
I dont think any program needs another program. We like to play Penn State but don't need it to survive. You like to play us but dont need it to survive. I'm simply saying that if Pitt wanted to be in the Big 12, they have a heck of a trump card to play. I realize its not WVU's decision but they have 1/16 influence and to be honest, I highly doubt Utah and Arizona give a crap if its Pitt, Syr, Lou, or GT that's added. The league already has so much garbage that no one is going to say "No way guys, Pitt just doesn't deliver the eyeballs that previous expansion adds Cincy, Houston, UCF, Arizona, and Arizona State has brought." The Big 12 has really no coherent plan on what they are doing. I fully expect the meeting to go like this:
WVU: Pitt says they want to join and if they dont, they'll never play us in anything. We want to vote for their addition because that game means a lot to our state.
Big 12: Ok, whatever, I dont care, we take anyone anyway.
It is crazy that you still think it is up to the 16 schools in conference. The decision will be made by the broadcast partners and if they want pony up another full share.
Still the resident blowhard? Every school board has him.
Of course, the XII has a coherent plan. It’s what stabilized a conference with absolutely zero of the 10-15 teams that matter (no others matter including Pitt and WVU). The two teams that matter that aren’t in P2 are UNC and ND (and maybe FSU/Clemson although that’s tbd).
Zero reason to believe they’re going to reach just to reach. The XII procured the first 4 they got merely for survival. They reached out to the 4 corner schools in order to be the 3rd best conference because of the inevitable lawsuits from the ACC haves that would eventually lead to those schools leaving, which is a strong possibility (although not definite).
I suspect your dismissal of XII and (for some unknown reason) belief that a collection of have nots in the ACC (mostly smallish metro schools) would be auto plays in the XII is likely due to need for positive affirmation…and that’s totally fine. Uncertain times.
Every ACC fan kept laughing about the XII fans who were harping that it would (correctly) be the 3rd conference standing. It was precisely because there were ZERO coveted brands. ACC have nots were of the mindset that Clemson, FSU “were like them” and long for the ACC. Clemson and FSU being in same league as Pitt, Cuse and BC didn’t make sense from the start.
Again, zero reason to add just to add if you’re the XII. I would suspect that NCSU, if available, would be the first school invited because of the significant number of alumni/former residents at WVU/Cincinnati living in NC. 2nd school would absolutely be VPI (if available). Who knows after that? If I had to guess, the XII will be a 20-team conference for many years to come. And then there will be another lesser conference that also isn’t remotely close to what ultimately matters….being P2. BUT, it’s infinitely better than playing G5 schools, mostly. May as well stick a fork in a school if that happened.
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The most likely scenario is this:
The Big 12 is going to get Pac 12'd when renegotiating their TV deal, which expires in 2031. Even if the ACC loses team by then, the per team share remains the same so the ACC can backfill with B12 teams who were lowballed by the networks. I doubt ESPN will even bid on the Big 12. They have the SEC, ACC, and may want to go all in on the Big 10 or at least grab a piece of it.
TV contracts for leagues not called the B10 and SEC are going to go way down. Your commissioner said it himself:
“At the time, I didn’t realize that was really the last big media deal that was available, especially in our industry of collegiate athletics,” Yormark said. “Sometimes in life you gotta get lucky. And we got a little lucky, because had we not done that deal at the time we did, who knows if I’d be your 100th show here today.”
Colorado is too good of a market to not be in the B10 or SEC so they are gone in 2031. For the other 15 schools, I dont understand what would differentiate them from the 10 P12 schools who only had Apple TV make them a half decent offer:
Arizona = Arizona
Arizona State = Arizona State
Utah = Utah
TCU = Stanford (private school, great market, nobody cares)
Houston = Cal (public school, great market, nobody cares)
Kansas State = Oregon State (secondary university in a lowly populated state)
Iowa State = Washington State (secondary university in an area where nobody lives)
Those 7 are just about the same. The old Pac 12 had 2 big brands in Oregon and Washington. The Big 12 is only left with BYU, Colorado (if they arent in the B10 or SEC), OK St, TT, Baylor, WVU, Kansas, UCF, and Cincinnati. There's more markets there than what the P12 offered but none of them are good:
BYU - already have the Utah market. They have a following outside Utah but it doesn't move the needle enough
Colorado - great market if they stay but not as valuable as what the P12 has in Oregon and Washington
Cincinnati - good market but very few people in the city care
UCF - same. 3rd most popular team in Orlando
WVU - small market
Kansas- KC is a good market but college football isnt popular there and they already share it with Mizzou
OK St - similar to WVU. Nice group of devoted fans but just not enough of them in a lowly populated state where OU sucks all the air out.
TT - similar to OK St
Baylor - nobody cares except for the 40K fans in their stadium
The Big 12 brands and markets are just bad. This is why I say that if the ACC can stay together until 2031 when the new B12 deal sucks, they can pick off some B12 schools.
The problem with this scenario is that ESPN can opt out of the ACC TV deal in 2027, well before the Big 12 would begin renegotiating their deal. We’re behind the 8 Ball when it comes to timing.
I’ve been in agreement with our hoopie visitors here ever since the pac 12 died and the 4 corner schools went to the big xii. That will be the 3rd conference standing. The pac and acc could have killed it when Texas and ou left but didn’t. Like some here, they viewed conference affiliates the old way, academic peers that regionally aligned. That died 3 years ago.
Now it’s about money, brands, survival and perception and unfortunately the big xii with the 4 corner schools added has a better national perception than the acc once the big brands leave. Want proof? The acc today even with the big brands is lumped with the big xii now based on the college football playoff revenue split. That will only get worse when fsu and others leave.
Pitt is viewed below at least 7 acc school’s perception and value wise based on the “magnificent 7” conversations within the conference. And Ross delinger one of the most in tune guys out there said if all 7 of those find a place one the power 2 then Louisville and duke are top of the big xii wish list because of their basketball brand.
So Pitt is by far no slam dunk just based on numbers. We can very well be in an even worse leftover conference. And to no fault of their own.
Now it’s about money, brands, survival and perception and unfortunately the big xii with the 4 corner schools added has a better national perception than the acc once the big brands leave. Want proof? The acc today even with the big brands is lumped with the big xii now based on the college football playoff revenue split. That will only get worse when fsu and others leave.
Pitt is viewed below at least 7 acc school’s perception and value wise based on the “magnificent 7” conversations within the conference. And Ross delinger one of the most in tune guys out there said if all 7 of those find a place one the power 2 then Louisville and duke are top of the big xii wish list because of their basketball brand.
So Pitt is by far no slam dunk just based on numbers. We can very well be in an even worse leftover conference. And to no fault of their own.
No they cant. That's what FSU said in a lawsuit but its a look-in period, not a renegotiation period.
Rx for the Next TV Contract Look-In
This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.
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People forget about ESPN here. It has the ACC Network and its getting it cheap. Even if FSU and Clemson leave, ESPN will decide who the 3rd conference is. My hunch is that they pick the ACC by not bidding on the Big 12, which in turn allows the ACC to add the best Big 12 schools.
The thing is your opinion on this has zero factoring on anything any of these schools do… zero… might be fun tailgating banter … but that’s it. “ Memories are long”..,. lol 😂
Since you're so hung up on media markets, someone needs to tell you that Monongslia County in West Virginia is within the Pittsburgh market per Nielsen.
I don’t know, everything I’ve seen reported on this suggests that ESPN can do just that (or drop the deal altogether) in 2027. I’d love to be wrong, though.No they cant. That's what FSU said in a lawsuit but its a look-in period, not a renegotiation period.
Rx for the Next TV Contract Look-In
This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.
Doesn't matter what media market Nielsen says you are in. Rutgers is in the NYC media market and only 19 people in Manhattan ever heard of Rutgers. But New Jersey has 9 million people.
West Virginia's market is the state of WV. 1.7 million people. Pitt's market is Allegheny County + the bordering counties. 2.5 million people.
Networks are buying fans and potential fans and the best way to measure that is still by determining who lives in an area where a certain percentage of people are expected to have an interest in that team.
I heard the requirement for Big12 membership is you have to have at least 2 truckstops within a 10 mile radius to the campus. Is this true?
It's becoming more apparent that the endgame with the ACC lawsuits is a negotiated settlement. If that's the case, it should give the ACC (and ESPN) the benefit to work on its future without a chaotic free-for-all. Being anchored on the east coast is still an advantage and there is value in that. Both population wise and household income wise, you just don't ignore that.
