Backyard Brawl just got a lot closer
- Thread starter Sean Miller Fan
- Start date
Keep you day job; you’ll make a lot more as a Chick fil a drive through coordinator than you would as an oddsmaker for college football.
WVU had about 13 players transfer out! This means nothing! The game will be close because of the rivalry
It was always going to be in question. Obviously with one big exception, Pitt typically treats this game as an afterthought, while WVU makes it their Super Bowl and Kentucky Derby and St. Patrick’s Day combined. Pitt definitely has to have the right mindset especially now, and that’s Narduzzi’s challenge.
I was right in saying Miami, UNC, and UVa were toss-ups despite us being big favorites. I think Pitt wins, but its close to being a toss-up
I can’t wait to see our D Line MAUL that porous Oline they have….
Okay instead of beating them by three touchdowns we'll beat them by two. Move on.
Would the loss of Jordan Addison move the point spread by even one point?
If you think it would move the line more than that you simply don't know how these things work.
It’s a hot rivalry game. Remember when WVU was favored by 27+ and lost 13-9? Who knows.
That's what they said when I said Miami, UVa, and UNC were toss-ups. I promise you the game will be close.
There is no wide receiver ever in the history of football that would move a point spread five points on their own. None. Ever.
In fact there is probably no wide receiver ever in the history of football that would move a point spread even one point. You simply don't know how these things work.
Panther fans have a little success, win the Big East, and now they’re going to blow the doors off of WVU.
HA.
HA.
I think I read somewhere their entire OL returns much like Pitt’s does. Now is that a good thing for WVU remains to be seen.
When Lee Corso coached at Indiana, he told IU fans I have good news and bad news.. The good news is we have 18 starters coming back from last year's three-win season.
The bad news is that we have 18 starters coming back from last year's three-win season.
You are either insane or have no concept whatsoever of how pointspreads work. This is one of your worst takes ever.
Similar to what I wrote about Cig and the offensive players, use the recent departure of that former player yesterday and the subsequent forecasts of doom, to whip up a frenzy, giant chips on the shoulders, to work out like fiends this spring and summer and practice ferociously in camp for a great start out of the gate.
WVU will be amped, they’re already preparing for this game since it was inked; they have absolutely nothing in their lives that means as much as this to them, nothing. Their whole state will stop everything for this. Pitt needs to understand this (we haven’t done so in the past) and be prepared to punch them hard in the mouth immediately.
WVU will be amped, they’re already preparing for this game since it was inked; they have absolutely nothing in their lives that means as much as this to them, nothing. Their whole state will stop everything for this. Pitt needs to understand this (we haven’t done so in the past) and be prepared to punch them hard in the mouth immediately.
I think this game means a lot to Pitt fans. I hate losing to them as much as Penn State. To me their are our number one rival. I’m excited the series is back. Also think losing Addison hurts but we have all summer to work on game plan without him. I think it will be a close game but Pitt will win because we return so many important players from an 11-3 conference champion team.
Well, I was right about the with Addison spread.
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Still saying it will be -4 by kick. Addison is a monumentally massive loss. He is arguably the best player in college football and taking him off of a non-blue bloodish team hurts deeply. Pitt will win, but it will be close.
Well, I was right about the with Addison spread.
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Still saying it will be -4 by kick. Addison is a monumentally massive loss. He is arguably the best player in college football and taking him off of a non-blue bloodish team hurts deeply. Pitt will win, but it will be close.
WR's are typically worth 1-2 pts. Davante Adams was about .80 in most models last year.
OK, maybe I will be wrong for once but I think it will be more when you take a 1st Round WR off a non blue blood and replace him with potentially non-NFL level WRs
Teams win with OL and DL play not WRs. It sucks losing him but he' was never going to be the make or break player for this team. In fact he absolutely would have been in the portal after the season if Pitt was starting all over again at OL and QB. I think Pitt will be fine. I expect them to win 8-10 games this year depending on luck and QB play.
I think Addison himself is worth every bit of 2 pts, but if the line goes from -9 to -4, that also has to do with where the money is being placed. Realistically, I think Pitt is still a TD favorite at home. Wouldn't be surprised to see more money on WVU at that line to get it to -4.
Uh, well, yea, that's kind of my point. Bettors will think Addison is worth more than 2 points and the line will move by 5.
my point is that he's realistically worth 1-2 pts. The line being -4 doesn't mean that's what it should be.
The line dropping to -4 means that sports betting population generally think he's worth 4-6 points. You can say that isnt what it should be but that's what it will be because that's what bettors think he's worth. Pitt message board people may think he's only worth 1 point. The people betting real money will think differently. The kid is a 1st Round talent, a difference maker, and a huge factor on a team with Pitt-level talent. Without him, Pitt and WVU are fairly similar.
ok but I'm telling you that an actual model will only give him 1-2 pts at best. I think he's closer to 2 pts.
idc what the public says. The public is wrong more than right. That's a fact. You see all those big building out in Vegas? Those weren't built by following the public.
Actually you have someone right here in this thread who has worked for sports books and help set lines who told you that "you are either insane or have no concept whatsoever of how pointspreads work. This is one of your worst takes ever."
The loss of Addison won't move the point spread more than one point. If that.
I will be sure to bump this when it drops to -4. Right now its -9.5.
Maybe 2 W's coming my way on Addison. Texas and -4
You realize you are essentially debunking your own argument right? As of right now you can still get WVU +9.5, and this is long AFTER the assumption that Addison will not be playing for Pitt. If there was going to be some big line movement based solely on him not playing it would’ve already happened.
The limits are ridiculously low on these very early lines, and some of them will move dramatically before the season starts as they get kicked around. Hell I remember someone opened Pitt as near a double digit favorite over PSU a few years ago, but it settled in around 3 by kickoff.
You may be right or not about where the number goes, but it won’t have anything to do with Addison. Anyone hitting this game would’ve done so days ago, probably even before it became public news. I seem to remember seeing someone have -10 a week or so ago, so I guess it can be said Addison moved the number a half point.
By the way, he does that more than any person pretty much in the history of the world, and yet rarely realizes what he's done even when someone spells it out for him.
