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Keep you day job; you’ll make a lot more as a Chick fil a drive through coordinator than you would as an oddsmaker for college football.WVU + Daniels
Pitt minus Addison
I would now call Pitt only a slight favorite. Almost a toss-up.
I was right in saying Miami, UNC, and UVa were toss-ups despite us being big favorites. I think Pitt wins, but its close to being a toss-upKeep you day job; you’ll make a lot more as a Chick fil a drive through coordinator than you would as an oddsmaker for college football.
The only thing that will be tossed up will be hoopie lunches.WVU + Daniels
Pitt minus Addison
I would now call Pitt only a slight favorite. Almost a toss-up.
Okay instead of beating them by three touchdowns we'll beat them by two. Move on.WVU + Daniels
Pitt minus Addison
I would now call Pitt only a slight favorite. Almost a toss-up.
Ok dudeWVU + Daniels
Pitt minus Addison
I would now call Pitt only a slight favorite. Almost a toss-up.
WVU + Daniels
Pitt minus Addison
I would now call Pitt only a slight favorite. Almost a toss-up.
YesWould the loss of Jordan Addison move the point spread by even one point?
If you think it would move the line more than that you simply don't know how these things work.
That's what they said when I said Miami, UVa, and UNC were toss-ups. I promise you the game will be close.You HAVE to be trolling
Yes
From -9 to -4 IMO
Would the loss of Jordan Addison move the point spread by even one point?
If you think it would move the line more than that you simply don't know how these things work.
I think I read somewhere their entire OL returns much like Pitt’s does. Now is that a good thing for WVU remains to be seen.I can’t wait to see our D Line MAUL that porous Oline they have….
You are either insane or have no concept whatsoever of how pointspreads work. This is one of your worst takes ever.Yes
From -9 to -4 IMO
Neat.Similar to what I wrote about Cig and the offensive players, use the recent departure of that former player yesterday and the subsequent forecasts of doom, to whip up a frenzy, giant chips on the shoulders, to work out like fiends this spring and summer and practice ferociously in camp for a great start out of the gate.
WVU will be amped, they’re already preparing for this game since it was inked; they have absolutely nothing in their lives that means as much as this to them, nothing. Their whole state will stop everything for this. Pitt needs to understand this (we haven’t done so in the past) and be prepared to punch them hard in the mouth immediately.
WVU + Daniels
Pitt minus Addison
I would now call Pitt only a slight favorite. Almost a toss-
Well, I was right about the with Addison spread.You are either insane or have no concept whatsoever of how pointspreads work. This is one of your worst takes ever.
Well, I was right about the with Addison spread.
Panthers vs Mountaineers ncaaf line movements - 03.27.2024
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Still saying it will be -4 by kick. Addison is a monumentally massive loss. He is arguably the best player in college football and taking him off of a non-blue bloodish team hurts deeply. Pitt will win, but it will be close.
OK, maybe I will be wrong for once but I think it will be more when you take a 1st Round WR off a non blue blood and replace him with potentially non-NFL level WRsWR's are typically worth 1-2 pts. Davante Adams was about .80 in most models last year.
OK, maybe I will be wrong for once but I think it will be more when you take a 1st Round WR off a non blue blood and replace him with potentially non-NFL level WRs
Uh, well, yea, that's kind of my point. Bettors will think Addison is worth more than 2 points and the line will move by 5.I think Addison himself is worth every bit of 2 pts, but if the line goes from -9 to -4, that also has to do with where the money is being placed. Realistically, I think Pitt is still a TD favorite at home. Wouldn't be surprised to see more money on WVU at that line to get it to -4.
Uh, well, yea, that's kind of my point. Bettors will think Addison is worth more than 2 points and the line will move by 5.
The line dropping to -4 means that sports betting population generally think he's worth 4-6 points. You can say that isnt what it should be but that's what it will be because that's what bettors think he's worth. Pitt message board people may think he's only worth 1 point. The people betting real money will think differently. The kid is a 1st Round talent, a difference maker, and a huge factor on a team with Pitt-level talent. Without him, Pitt and WVU are fairly similar.my point is that he's realistically worth 1-2 pts. The line being -4 doesn't mean that's what it should be.
The line dropping to -4 means that sports betting population generally think he's worth 4-6 points. You can say that isnt what it should be but that's what it will be because that's what bettors think he's worth. Pitt message board people may think he's only worth 1 point. The people betting real money will think differently. The kid is a 1st Round talent, a difference maker, and a huge factor on a team with Pitt-level talent. Without him, Pitt and WVU are fairly similar.
This SMF?Keep you day job; you’ll make a lot more as a Chick fil a drive through coordinator
WVU + Daniels
Pitt minus Addison
I would now call Pitt only a slight favorite. Almost a toss-up.
The people betting real money will think differently.
I will be sure to bump this when it drops to -4. Right now its -9.5.Actually you have someone right here in this thread who has worked for sports books and help set lines who told you that "you are either insane or have no concept whatsoever of how pointspreads work. This is one of your worst takes ever."
The loss of Addison won't move the point spread more than one point. If that.
You realize you are essentially debunking your own argument right? As of right now you can still get WVU +9.5, and this is long AFTER the assumption that Addison will not be playing for Pitt. If there was going to be some big line movement based solely on him not playing it would’ve already happened.I will be sure to bump this when it drops to -4. Right now its -9.5.
Maybe 2 W's coming my way on Addison. Texas and -4
You realize you are essentially debunking your own argument right? As of right now you can still get WVU +9.5, and this is long AFTER the assumption that Addison will not be playing for Pitt. If there was going to be some big line movement based solely on him not playing it would’ve already happened.
The limits are ridiculously low on these very early lines, and some of them will move dramatically before the season starts as they get kicked around. Hell I remember someone opened Pitt as near a double digit favorite over PSU a few years ago, but it settled in around 3 by kickoff.
You may be right or not about where the number goes, but it won’t have anything to do with Addison. Anyone hitting this game would’ve done so days ago, probably even before it became public news. I seem to remember seeing someone have -10 a week or so ago, so I guess it can be said Addison moved the number a half point.
You realize you are essentially debunking your own argument right?