Bid stealer thread

[Sean Miller Fan]

Charleston vs Towson and Oral Roberts vs St. Thomas in semis tonight. Need both to win it.

Gonzaga plays USF and SMC plays BYU tonight. Need either Gonzaga or SMC to win the tournament.

FAU doesn't start till Thursday. Need them to win CUSA.

The Big East seems like a league that can produce a bid stealer. Villanova needs to beat Creighton and Xavier to reach the BE Final. Very manageable.

The American is also like this. Not sure how serious Houston will take it. Need them or Memphis to win it. Going to be nervy because one of those teams wont make the finals so we'll be rooting for one of those teams hard on Sunday.

 

[Pitt2006]

Also, if Oklahoma/Texas Tech were to win big12 or Oregon the Pac12, Florida/Vandy the SEC, or Clemson the ACC, it would also be bad.

 

[Blair_45]

I see Pitt’s NET dropped 3 more spots today from over the weekend from 55 down to 58 so that pretty much tells me while I think Pitt is still in as a solid 10 seed they have no margin of error on Wednesday losing to either FSU or GT. Need to win that game and maybe win it convincingly with as goofy as these NET Rankings are.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Charleston vs Towson and Oral Roberts vs St. Thomas in semis tonight. Need both to win it.

Gonzaga plays USF and SMC plays BYU tonight. Need either Gonzaga or SMC to win the tournament.

FAU doesn't start till Thursday. Need them to win CUSA.

The Big East seems like a league that can produce a bid stealer. Villanova needs to beat Creighton and Xavier to reach the BE Final. Very manageable.

The American is also like this. Not sure how serious Houston will take it. Need them or Memphis to win it. Going to be nervy because one of those teams wont make the finals so we'll be rooting for one of those teams hard on Sunday.

There is 0.0% chance Charleston or Oral Roberts gets in. Those teams are 12-13 seeds right now, they won’t go up to 10-11 seeds with a loss.

FAU is closer, probably a 8-9-10 seed right now. I think they can lose and make it, but have to make it to finals.

Villanova, any AAC team not named Houston/Memphis, Oregon, Virginia Tech. Those are the teams I would be watching.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I see Pitt’s NET dropped 3 more spots today from over the weekend from 55 down to 58 so that pretty much tells me while I think Pitt is still in as a solid 10 seed they have no margin of error on Wednesday losing to either FSU or GT. Need to win that game and maybe win it convincingly with as goofy as these NET Rankings are.

I’ve complained about the NET all season. But at this point I think being ranked in the 50s is probably where we belong after last week. I think we are probably a 10-12 seed at this point unless we go on a run in the ACCT. And that isn’t a terrible place to be.

 

[Pitt2006]

What about KPI? I hear they look at that too and thought they had a better ranking there than in the NeT?

Edit: Nevermind, 49 in KPI so similar.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Also, if Oklahoma/Texas Tech were to win big12 or Oregon the Pac12, Florida/Vandy the SEC, or Clemson the ACC, it would also be bad.

OK/TT have no chance to win the B12. Fla, Vandy, Oregon, I guess but you can say that with any league. Clemson, UNC, or VT will likely play for the ACC Championship Saturday night vs Miami or Duke.

 

[SteelBowl70]

OK/TT have no chance to win the B12. Fla, Vandy, Oregon, I guess but you can say that with any league. Clemson, UNC, or VT will likely play for the ACC Championship Saturday night vs Miami or Duke.

Yeah the other side of the ACC bracket could be a worry. VT would have to win the final. Clemson - UNC semifinal would be bad news. Clemson just getting to the semis might be enough for them. UNC making the finals probably gets them to Dayton.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I’ve complained about the NET all season. But at this point I think being ranked in the 50s is probably where we belong after last week. I think we are probably a 10-12 seed at this point unless we go on a run in the ACCT. And that isn’t a terrible place to be.

Pitt really isnt that good. Our Net/Vegas rank has always been about where it should have been based on "team value" or whatever they call it. We won a lot of 1 possession games. NET basically goes by who would be favored on a neutral floor and Pitt is an underdog to a lot of these teams. But that's not how they should pick the tourney. We may not be as good as NW, NC State, Miami, UVa but we beat them, 2 on the road.

 

[Blair_45]

There is 0.0% chance Charleston or Oral Roberts gets in. Those teams are 12-13 seeds right now, they won’t go up to 10-11 seeds with a loss.

FAU is closer, probably a 8-9-10 seed right now. I think they can lose and make it, but have to make it to finals.

Villanova, any AAC team not named Houston/Memphis, Oregon, Virginia Tech. Those are the teams I would be watching.

Yea I agree Charleston and Oral Roberts aren’t getting at large bids if they don’t win their conference tournaments. Pitt like you mentioned has to worry about conferences like the Big 12, SEC, Big East or ACC stealing a bid over one of those teams. Florida Atlantic losing as well could hurt them and maybe somebody else winning the West Coast Conference could hurt some but that’s it no other conference I don’t think will steal a bid right now from Pitt.

 

[UPitt '89]

There is 0.0% chance Charleston or Oral Roberts gets in. Those teams are 12-13 seeds right now, they won’t go up to 10-11 seeds with a loss.

FAU is closer, probably a 8-9-10 seed right now. I think they can lose and make it, but have to make it to finals.

Villanova, any AAC team not named Houston/Memphis, Oregon, Virginia Tech. Those are the teams I would be watching.

Any WCC team not named Gonzaga/St.Mary's

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yea I agree Charleston and Oral Roberts aren’t getting at large bids if they don’t win their conference tournaments. Pitt like you mentioned has to worry about conferences like the Big 12, SEC, Big East or ACC stealing a bid over one of those teams. Florida Atlantic losing as well could hurt them and maybe somebody else winning the West Coast Conference could hurt some but that’s it no other conference I don’t think will steal a bid right now from Pitt.

FAU is a lock. Charleston and ORU may not get in but would you bank on that? We've seen teams like that get in. ORU has one of the best players in the nation (how has he not transferred?). They could get a bid. I worry about them playing a road game tomorrow night.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Pitt really isnt that good. Our Net/Vegas rank has always been about where it should have been based on "team value" or whatever they call it. We won a lot of 1 possession games. NET basically goes by who would be favored on a neutral floor and Pitt is an underdog to a lot of these teams. But that's not how they should pick the tourney. We may not be as good as NW, NC State, Miami, UVa but we beat them, 2 on the road.

I’d say we are good, sometimes very good. We aren’t great. Those are subjective terms but I think expectations outpaced what this team was actually capable of after the second UNC game (which was understandable).

 

[Pitt2006]

OK/TT have no chance to win the B12. Fla, Vandy, Oregon, I guess but you can say that with any league. Clemson, UNC, or VT will likely play for the ACC Championship Saturday night vs Miami or Duke.

Would I bet money on Oklahoma, no. But when they have taken down Bama convincingly, TCU, Etc and have played Baylor and Kansas close, anything can happen, particularly if the higher teams don’t give their all.

 

[nycpanther98]

It's going to be an interesting week. The good news is that we still control our own destiny. The bad news is that while we can beat virtually anyone, we can lose to virtually anyone too. Again, it's going to be an interesting week.

 

[Pitt79]

It's totally ridiculous that Pitt isn't a lock already, because of history...

From Triblive: 2. Will the tournament committee bestow an at-large NCAA bid on Pitt if it shows up March 12 (Selection Sunday) with, perhaps, a 22-11 record? Teams with double-digit losses are chosen for the tournament every year. Alabama and Indiana did it with 13 defeats last year, and the Hoosiers were even below .500 (9-11) in the Big Ten. With 14 conference victories, Pitt has a resume worthy of the tournament.

...even the last year they made the NCAAs they where 21-11 and 9-9 in the ACC.

 

[whirlybird optio]

FAU is a lock. Charleston and ORU may not get in but would you bank on that? We've seen teams like that get in. ORU has one of the best players in the nation (how has he not transferred?). They could get a bid. I worry about them playing a road game tomorrow night.

I would 100% bank on them not getting in. ORU has no good OOC wins. (Liberty?). Charleston is pretty far behind oral Roberts. So, no. Florida Atlantic is the one bid league team we really need to watch. The A-10 is a one bid league. The summit isn’t getting two teams.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I would 100% bank on them not getting in. ORU has no good OOC wins. (Liberty?). Charleston is pretty far behind oral Roberts. So, no. Florida Atlantic is the one bid league team we really need to watch. The A-10 is a one bid league. The summit isn’t getting two teams.

Ok. I'm not saying ORU or CC should get in but wouldn't be shocked if they did. I would agree on the A10, but if VCU loses in the final and finishes 26-8, I couldn't say I would 100% bank on a 21-11 or 22-11 Pitt team getting in over them since they beat us. Our resume would be much better but 26 wins is a lot even though none are Q1.

 

[Pitt2006]

Ok. I'm not saying ORU or CC should get in but wouldn't be shocked if they did. I would agree on the A10, but if VCU loses in the final and finishes 26-8, I couldn't say I would 100% bank of a 21-11 or 22-11 Pitt team getting in over them since they beat us. Our resume would be much better but 26 wins is a lot even though none are Q1.

They also beat Vandy who is coming on strong.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

They also beat Vandy who is coming on strong.

The committee reserves 1 or 2 spots for an ORU, CC, VCU, etc. Teams who haven't beaten anyone because of their league but won a ton of games.

 

[whirlybird optio]

The committee reserves 1 or 2 spots for an ORU, CC, VCU, etc. Teams who haven't beaten anyone because of their league but won a ton of games.

Which were those teams last year?

 

[whirlybird optio]

Ok. I'm not saying ORU or CC should get in but wouldn't be shocked if they did. I would agree on the A10, but if VCU loses in the final and finishes 26-8, I couldn't say I would 100% bank on a 21-11 or 22-11 Pitt team getting in over them since they beat us. Our resume would be much better but 26 wins is a lot even though none are Q1.

I’m honestly not sure Pitt is even on the bubble. Palm moved them up a seed line. Katz listed 10 bubble teams we weren’t even on it. There seems to be a group think building that Pitt is pretty safe. And if we are safe almost everywhere, I tend to think we are safe with the committee. Probably even with a loss

 

[SteelBowl70]

I agree the “prominent” media has Pitt on much safer ground than the general bracketmatrix crowd which I’m guessing is more reliant on the NET metric

 

[Pitt79]

I’m honestly not sure Pitt is even on the bubble. Palm moved them up a seed line. Katz listed 10 bubble teams we weren’t even on it. There seems to be a group think building that Pitt is pretty safe. And if we are safe almost everywhere, I tend to think we are safe with the committee. Probably even with a loss

We should be, did they change the criteria this year? We are 21-10 and 14-6 in the ACC. That should be enough on its own. Indiana went 20-13 and 9-11 in the B1G last year and they got in, so why all of a sudden do the standards for a Power Conference team get so high?

 

[whirlybird optio]

We should be, did they change the criteria this year? We are 21-10 and 14-6 in the ACC. That should be enough on its own. Indiana went 20-13 and 9-11 in the B1G last year and they got in, so why all of a sudden do the standards for a Power Conference team get so high?

Because all wins, and all conferences are not the same. Never have been.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I agree the “prominent” media has Pitt on much safer ground than the general bracketmatrix crowd which I’m guessing is more reliant on the NET metric

To your point - Rothstein has us 25th, and he’s as tuned in as anyone. Not even sniffing the bubble.

So, maybe we are like a 8-9 seed right now and worrying for nothing. The committee very well might be thinking this was the best team in the ACC all year to the final day of the season they aren’t getting left out

 

[pittchagg]

I’ve kinda been thinking for the last few weeks that I think we’re just a lot safer in the eyes of the committee than we realize…and I’ve been tempted to think it’s just my bias. Maybe it isn’t, though.

 

[Pitt79]

Because all wins, and all conferences are not the same. Never have been.

The ACC right now is as good as the B1G and they were last year too, Northwestern was 2nd in the B1G this year and Pitt destroyed them.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

What about KPI? I hear they look at that too and thought they had a better ranking there than in the NeT?

Edit: Nevermind, 49 in KPI so similar.

In the six computer metrics that they use we are 49, 52, 56, 58, 63 and 68.

The 49 and 56 are the two that don't use scoring margins or efficiency, so those are the ones that SMF thinks are the best. And yet we really aren't any better in those (by any significant margin) than we are in the NET.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

ORU down 2 at half vs St. Thomas. St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAAT after moving up from D3 so if they win, the next semifinal of NDSU vs SDSU will decide the auto bid and ORU could steal an at-large possibly

 

[whirlybird optio]

ORU down 2 at half vs St. Thomas. St. Thomas is ineligible for the NCAAT after moving up from D3 so if they win, the next semifinal of NDSU vs SDSU will decide the auto bid and ORU could steal an at-large possibly

ORU isn’t getting in, and especially not after losing to St Thomas, or St Martin, or St Kitts.

 

[whirlybird optio]

Oral Roberts wins. St Mary’s killing BYU. Charleston down 5.

Charleston can’t make it losing in the semis (or finals), but especially semis. I’m of the opinion you root for Charleston to lose tonight.

 

[UPitt '89]

St. Mary's held on after late surge from BYU.

Now only a VERY VERY small chance that SF is a bid-stealer. Don't see any universe where they beat Gonzaga and then St. Mary's.

One bullet dodged.

 

[FireballZ]

St. Mary's held on after late surge from BYU.

Now only a VERY VERY small chance that SF is a bid-stealer. Don't see any universe where they beat Gonzaga and then St. Mary's.

One bullet dodged.

BYU probably showed people how you can beat SMC tonight. Wow were they super shaky against the press.

 

[whirlybird optio]

St. Mary's held on after late surge from BYU.

Now only a VERY VERY small chance that SF is a bid-stealer. Don't see any universe where they beat Gonzaga and then St. Mary's.

One bullet dodged.

I would have preferred Charleston would have lost. 0.0% chance they get in with a semis loss. With 30 wins now, they at least have a unique argument (no 30 win team has ever missed). So, I went for rooting against them tonight, to rooting for them tomorrow, even though I think they are behind most of the bubble teams.

WCC tournament going fine.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Oral Roberts wins. St Mary’s killing BYU. Charleston down 5.

Charleston can’t make it losing in the semis (or finals), but especially semis. I’m of the opinion you root for Charleston to lose tonight.

I was rooting for CC. There has never been a 29 win team that didnt make the NCAAT. They are now 30-3 and a 100% lock for the NCAAT. Aint no way they are getting left out if they lose tomorrow. Root hard for them to beat UNCW.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I was rooting for CC. There has never been a 29 win team that didnt make the NCAAT. They are now 30-3 and a 100% lock for the NCAAT. Aint no way they are getting left out if they lose tomorrow. Root hard for them to beat UNCW.

100% is awful high lol. I would take the under there.

There is no universe where they get in over Pitt. None. 25 Q3/Q4 wins. No good wins all year. None.

So, if you are worried about them, fine. But not against Pitt’s resume.

 

[whirlybird optio]

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

100% is awful high lol. I would take the under there.

There is no universe where they get in over Pitt. None. 25 Q3/Q4 wins. No good wins all year. None.

So, if you are worried about them, fine. But not against Pitt’s resume.

CC is a 🔐 now with 30 wins. The committee will ensure they get in even if its over Pitt or one of those B12 teams who went 8-10 in Q1/2. I realize CC's resume sucks but they would be 30-4. They're in.

 

[UPitt '89]

CC is a 🔐 now with 30 wins. The committee will ensure they get in even if its over Pitt or one of those B12 teams who went 8-10 in Q1/2. I realize CC's resume sucks but they would be 30-4. They're in.

You're 100% wrong.

Theory won't be tested, because CoC is going to win.

But there isn't a single bubble team that they would get in over. The committee doesn't operate anywhere NEAR the way you think they do, SMF. You are so far off it isn't funny.