Gotta give props to Duzz and company

[pittbb80]

After what at best can be described as a dismal season it looked like the program was turning into a dumpster fire and heading back to the days of the Hackett era

Most were expecting a mass exodus of what talent was in the roster along with any talented recruits bailing

In less than a month Duzz and company kept almost all of the kids who were thought to be higher level recruits as well as minimized losses to the transfer portal. The only “big” loss appears to be Sam O and Jules to a lesser extent. It appears they replaced Sam O with guys who are at least as talented

Secondly most of use were expecting him to hire another underwhelming retread for OC. Bell may not be as high profile as some would like but he’s the kind of more agressive OC most have been pushing for.

I don’t expect 2024 to be an immediate turnaround but I’m far more optimistic than I was at the end of the season. The team is relatively young now and there will be some growing pains. They also lack talent at the most important position. On the team (qb). I like Nate but he’s not a guy who can carry a team that is young and doesn’t have great talent around him

I do expect them to. Be more competitive in 2024 and have a really good season in 2025

 

[NatronaHeightsPanther]

247 has them as the 47th ranked class, Rivals has them at 39. The class is underwhelming and Narduzzi continues to struggle to recruit. I don’t see any reason this can’t be a consistent top 30 class that occasionally flirts with top 25. Narduzzi must get better recruiters on staff.

That being said, I’ll give him credit for hiring Bell. Id love to see a duel threat QB transfer, and some WR’s too.

 

[pittbb80]

247 has them as the 47th ranked class, Rivals has them at 39. The class is underwhelming and Narduzzi continues to struggle to recruit. I don’t see any reason this can’t be a consistent top 30 class that occasionally flirts with top 25. Narduzzi must get better recruiters on staff.

That being said, I’ll give him credit for hiring Bell. Id love to see a duel threat QB transfer, and some WR’s too.

Is there a statistically significant difference between 30 and 47?

Unless you are one of the elites picking and choosing among the top players (which Pitt will never be especially now with NIL) recruiting comes down to talent evaluation and development

Back in the 70s when Pitt had the golden panthers and the playing field wasn’t as tilted Pitt could compete. However being realistic given the state of CFB today the best Pitt can do is recruit the way they are today So given the year they had and the current landscape this class is pretty good

 

[NatronaHeightsPanther]

Is there a statistically significant difference between 30 and 47?

Unless you are one of the elites picking and choosing among the top players (which Pitt will never be especially now with NIL) recruiting comes down to talent evaluation and development

Back in the 70s when Pitt had the golden panthers and the playing field wasn’t as tilted Pitt could compete. However being realistic given the state of CFB today the best Pitt can do is recruit the way they are today So given the year they had and the current landscape this class is pretty good

According to 247, the 30th ranked class was North Carolina. Carolina had 8 4 star kids sign yesterday, compared to Pitt’s 2. I’m not sure what you mean by a significant statistical difference, but to me there is a difference. Now, how many of these kids stick and/or turn out to be good is obviously to be seen. Even still, I’d like to see Pitt get more talented kids here.

 

[pittbb80]

According to 247, the 30th ranked class was North Carolina. Carolina had 8 4 star kids sign yesterday, compared to Pitt’s 2. I’m not sure what you mean by a significant statistical difference, but to me there is a difference. Now, how many of these kids stick and/or turn out to be good is obviously to be seen. Even still, I’d like to see Pitt get more talented kids here.

First I thought Pitt had 5 four stars

Second even if you compare the number of four stars. The vast majority of the classes at this level are not. The ultimate performance of teams like Pitt and UNC comes down to talent elal and development

DE Sincere Edwards – Rivals

LB Cameron Lindsey – Rivals

OG Caleb Holmes – 247Sports

DT Jahsear Whittington – Rivals

DT Francis Brewu – Rivals

 

[NatronaHeightsPanther]

First I thought Pitt had 5 four stars

Second even if you compare the number of four stars. The vast majority of the classes at this level are not. The ultimate performance of teams like Pitt and UNC comes down to talent elal and development

DE Sincere Edwards – Rivals

LB Cameron Lindsey – Rivals

OG Caleb Holmes – 247Sports

DT Jahsear Whittington – Rivals

DT Francis Brewu – Rivals

Yea, I’m not a big rivals rankings fan. I lean more towards 247, especially since they do a composite ranking too. Pitt has 2 4 stars on that site.

 

[pittdan77]

Duzz has done pretty well with defensive recruiting. They seem to have a knack of finding the right guys for the right position in that defense. If there is a higher rated player, they're almost always on that side. Offensively, they haven't done a great job recruiting playmakers and that has really been a drag on the class ranking and the record. You can't just coach up some of those skills. QB recruiting hasn't been good. Has to improve.

 

[pittmeister]

247 has them as the 47th ranked class, Rivals has them at 39. The class is underwhelming and Narduzzi continues to struggle to recruit. I don’t see any reason this can’t be a consistent top 30 class that occasionally flirts with top 25. Narduzzi must get better recruiters on staff.

That being said, I’ll give him credit for hiring Bell. Id love to see a duel threat QB transfer, and some WR’s too.

If you look at average stars for the class per Rivals:

FSU (crybabies): 3.68
CLEMSON:3.64
MIAMI: 3.54
VIRGINIA TECH: 3.38
NORTH CAROLINA: 3.22
STANFORD: 3.21
PITTSBURGH: 3.21
LOUISVILLE: 3.20
NCST: 3.17
GEORGIA TECH: 3.13
DUKE: 3.06
SYRACUSE: 3.00
VIRGINIA: 3.00
SMU: 3.00
BOSTON COLLEGE: 2.92
WAKE FOREST: 2.76
CALIFORNIA: 2.76

Star average under Narduzzi:

2016: 3.08
2017: 3.04
2018: 3.05
2019: 2.89
2020: 3.06
2021: 3.09
2022: 3.08
2023: 3.00
2024: 3.21

As you can see, this might be Narduzzi’s best class top to bottom.

 

[NatronaHeightsPanther]

If you look at average stars for the class per Rivals:

FSU (crybabies): 3.68
CLEMSON:3.64
MIAMI: 3.54
VIRGINIA TECH: 3.38
NORTH CAROLINA: 3.22
STANFORD: 3.21
PITTSBURGH: 3.21
LOUISVILLE: 3.20
NCST: 3.17
GEORGIA TECH: 3.13
DUKE: 3.06
SYRACUSE: 3.00
VIRGINIA: 3.00
SMU: 3.00
BOSTON COLLEGE: 2.92
WAKE FOREST: 2.76
CALIFORNIA: 2.76

Star average under Narduzzi:

2016: 3.08
2017: 3.04
2018: 3.05
2019: 2.89
2020: 3.06
2021: 3.09
2022: 3.08
2023: 3.00
2024: 3.21

As you can see, this might be Narduzzi’s best class top to bottom.

I’m just not interested in those mental gymnastics. I’m all about the bottom line here, and the bottom line is 47th or 39th depending on what site you prefer. And unless Pitt hits on a QB in the portal, you’ll see how close the recruiting ranking is to where Pitt finishes in a couple years.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

It was a good class because most of the recruits seem like solid prospects, and they addressed the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Would have liked a QB and a couple more athletes. Maybe the new OC can help on that front.

 

[Panthergrowl13]

247 has them as the 47th ranked class, Rivals has them at 39. The class is underwhelming and Narduzzi continues to struggle to recruit. I don’t see any reason this can’t be a consistent top 30 class that occasionally flirts with top 25. Narduzzi must get better recruiters on staff.

That being said, I’ll give him credit for hiring Bell. Id love to see a duel threat QB transfer, and some WR’s too.

You have to look at the end result of recruiting.

Pitt has never had super recruiting according to the Rival ratings (Pitt getting mostly rival 3-star recruits).

Yet look at how many players Narduzzi developed that got drafted into the NFL.

Consider years 2021,2022 and 2023 NFL Draft.

Penn State had 19 players total drafted by the NFL during that time period.

Pitt had 14 players total drafted by the NFL ( 15 if Pitt could have counted WR Addison who won the Bilitnikoff while at Pitt before transferring to USC).

Syracuse had 3 players total drafted by the NFL.

Rutgers had 2 players total drafted by the NFL

Temple had 0 players drafted by the NFL during that time frame.

Narduzzi does a good job identifying good recruits and developing them into NFL talent.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[pittbb80]

Duzz has done pretty well with defensive recruiting. They seem to have a knack of finding the right guys for the right position in that defense. If there is a higher rated player, they're almost always on that side. Offensively, they haven't done a great job recruiting playmakers and that has really been a drag on the class ranking and the record. You can't just coach up some of those skills. QB recruiting hasn't been good. Has to improve.

Wonder if that has a anything to do with the quality of the staff and style of play in both sides

 

[pittmeister]

I’m just not interested in those mental gymnastics. I’m all about the bottom line here, and the bottom line is 47th or 39th depending on what site you prefer. And unless Pitt hits on a QB in the portal, you’ll see how close the recruiting ranking is to where Pitt finishes in a couple years.

We go through this with you all the time. NIL makes a huge difference now.

Yes, let's get to the bottom line and stop beating around the bush: It's about money. It always has been even before NIL.

What contributions have you made to Alliance 412? Probably nothing but, but you demand better recruits.

Hiring better recruiters is one solution. But can they coach?

If you look in history, Pitt has NEVER been a top recruiting school even in their heyday. I reviewed that on a different post:

Recruiting: The truth

There are many more 3-star players than there are 4-star players. The trick is for the coaches to find which ones they can develop and play like a 4–5-star players. That is how schools like Pitt have a chance to compete. Back in the days of Majors / Sherrill, a 4-5 star rated player didn’t...

pittsburgh.forums.rivals.com

I understand your frustrations, but it is what it is. It's about recruiting players and development.

Pitt's 2019 Recruiting Class Re-ranked to #9

pittsburgh.forums.rivals.com

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

If you look at average stars for the class per Rivals:

FSU (crybabies): 3.68
CLEMSON:3.64
MIAMI: 3.54
VIRGINIA TECH: 3.38
NORTH CAROLINA: 3.22
STANFORD: 3.21
PITTSBURGH: 3.21
LOUISVILLE: 3.20
NCST: 3.17
GEORGIA TECH: 3.13
DUKE: 3.06
SYRACUSE: 3.00
VIRGINIA: 3.00
SMU: 3.00
BOSTON COLLEGE: 2.92
WAKE FOREST: 2.76
CALIFORNIA: 2.76

Star average under Narduzzi:

2016: 3.08
2017: 3.04
2018: 3.05
2019: 2.89
2020: 3.06
2021: 3.09
2022: 3.08
2023: 3.00
2024: 3.21

As you can see, this might be Narduzzi’s best class top to bottom.

I've always thought they need to do average ranking instead of average star.

For instance, there are 5.7 three-stars who end up at Georgia and Alabama regularly, while there are 5.5 three-stars who end up in the G5 regularly.

 

[pittdan77]

Wonder if that has a anything to do with the quality of the staff and style of play in both sides

Probably? Put it this way, Pitt gets really talented DL-men because of the reputation the program has for the position and the coach.

Look, I would say Duzz's recruiting is "okay". Not horrifically bad but lots of room for improvement. He seems to get a lot of mileage out of guys that aren't heavily recruited which is great. Now imagine if he had multiple dynamic guys on his offense like Jordan Addison and a few positions. There's lots of potential with this program because we've had a player here and there like that. Needs to put it together and sustain that kind of recruiting.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

In general, I do think recruiting stars matter and are generally congruent with on-field success. So, in the simplest of terms - yes, they matter.

But it does get a little more nuanced than that. There are 4-stars very few teams wanted (Ruben Flowers, etc.), while there are 3-stars we've had to fight tooth and nail to land (Jordan Addison, etc.).

Then there are classes that get over-inflated by a team taking like two 4-star running backs or something.

In general, none of it is an exact science. Only about half of any class is ever going to contribute any meaningful reps. And less than half (on average) will ever start. So that's why I don't love using average player rankings, either - you can throw like half of every class out. And the the portal being what it is throws an even bigger monkey wrench into everything.

Does that mean we can't recruit a little better? No, I'm not totally excusing that either. One thing I really miss were those WPIAL studs who you just knew were going to be stars: Boyd, Whitehead, etc. I'm talking national, can't-miss recruits. We don't get those anymore (partly because the WPIAL has gone downhill and partly because our local recruiting has). A school like Pitt is never going to land recruits like that from any other place on the map; being local is our one "in."

But, all in all, this class mostly seems par for the course I guess. I'd have liked to have gotten some higher DB/WR prospects, and our high school QB recruiting has been something close to awful. But it is what it is. Hopefully Bell can get after it in 2025.

 

[BTisinDC]

247 has them as the 47th ranked class, Rivals has them at 39. The class is underwhelming and Narduzzi continues to struggle to recruit. I don’t see any reason this can’t be a consistent top 30 class that occasionally flirts with top 25. Narduzzi must get better recruiters on staff.

That being said, I’ll give him credit for hiring Bell. Id love to see a duel threat QB transfer, and some WR’s too.

You don't see ANY reason why they shouldn't consistently be top 30? Really? How about money? Between the Big 10 and the SEC there are 30+ teams raking in substantially more than Pitt. If you don't see that as a damn good reason you must have your head buried in something.

 

[pittbb80]

Probably? Put it this way, Pitt gets really talented DL-men because of the reputation the program has for the position and the coach.

Look, I would say Duzz's recruiting is "okay". Not horrifically bad but lots of room for improvement. He seems to get a lot of mileage out of guys that aren't heavily recruited which is great. Now imagine if he had multiple dynamic guys on his offense like Jordan Addison and a few positions. There's lots of potential with this program because we've had a player here and there like that. Needs to put it together and sustain that kind of recruiting.

Cant argue with this. I do think a good portion of the "better" recruiting on the defensive side of the ball is based on the fact that Duzz himself is recognized as a defensive "guru" and CP has a great rep for developing DL. Their style of play attracts DL and DBs but hasnt been as effective for LBs.

Hopefully with Bell they can use his rep to attract more talented players on that side of the ball.

I would say his recruiting has been "good" given the 30 year shit show Pitt had and the landscape in CFB that puts Pitt behind other schools. I do think he can do better though.

My main point was that he did a GOOD job this year holding things together after the awful season

 

[pittdan77]

My main point was that he did a GOOD job this year holding things together after the awful season

I think they did a stellar job holding the class together and with the portal. Could have turned into a disaster. NIL money certainly helped with a couple current guys so Pitt hasn't exactly given up trying.

 

[cashisking884]

Probably? Put it this way, Pitt gets really talented DL-men because of the reputation the program has for the position and the coach.

Look, I would say Duzz's recruiting is "okay". Not horrifically bad but lots of room for improvement. He seems to get a lot of mileage out of guys that aren't heavily recruited which is great. Now imagine if he had multiple dynamic guys on his offense like Jordan Addison and a few positions. There's lots of potential with this program because we've had a player here and there like that. Needs to put it together and sustain that kind of recruiting.

Does anybody sustain that type of recruiting?

When you look at a lot of the guys recently that were regarded as the prime examples of that model: Gary Patterson, Paul Cryst, Mark Dantonio, etc., all eventually failed, and were victims of the precedent they created by outperforming recruiting expectations.

It’s difficult to expect a consistent sustaining of it.

 

[pittmeister]

You don't see ANY reason why they shouldn't consistently be top 30? Really? How about money? Between the Big 10 and the SEC there are 30+ teams raking in substantially more than Pitt. If you don't see that as a damn good reason you must have your head buried in something.

Every team not in the top 25 recruiting class says the same thing every year. Not just Pitt.

 

[NatronaHeightsPanther]

You don't see ANY reason why they shouldn't consistently be top 30? Really? How about money? Between the Big 10 and the SEC there are 30+ teams raking in substantially more than Pitt. If you don't see that as a damn good reason you must have your head buried in something.

I’m just tired of Pitt constantly claiming they’re broke. The truth is, none of us truly know how much Alliance 412 brings in, or how much the Athletic Dept has….because they’re never transparent about it. But the narrative that Pitt is poor is tired and old.

 

[thebadby2]

Yea, I’m not a big rivals rankings fan. I lean more towards 247, especially since they do a composite ranking too. Pitt has 2 4 stars on that site.

I'm an offer sheet guy myself. There are always some outliers and exceptions, but for the most part:

Mid-major heavy sheet means mid-major talent. High major offer sheet means high major talent. Low end P5 sheet usually means low end P5 talent. Etc. etc.

i would also note that for some reason Pitt has had a pretty poor hit rate on its 4 star players over the past 15 years or so, with an alarming percentage of them not panning out. Again, the offer sheet is a better indicator than the site ratings. Not perfect, but better.

 

[thebadby2]

Duzz has done pretty well with defensive recruiting. They seem to have a knack of finding the right guys for the right position in that defense. If there is a higher rated player, they're almost always on that side. Offensively, they haven't done a great job recruiting playmakers and that has really been a drag on the class ranking and the record. You can't just coach up some of those skills. QB recruiting hasn't been good. Has to improve.

All of this is true. And I think it';s a direct reflection of having a defensive coordinator that doesn't spend much time on his offense as HC.

 

[thebadby2]

You have to look at the end result of recruiting.

Pitt has never had super recruiting according to the Rival ratings (Pitt getting mostly rival 3-star recruits).

Yet look at how many players Narduzzi developed that got drafted into the NFL.

Consider years 2021,2022 and 2023 NFL Draft.

Penn State had 19 players total drafted by the NFL during that time period.

Pitt had 14 players total drafted by the NFL ( 15 if Pitt could have counted WR Addison who won the Bilitnikoff while at Pitt before transferring to USC).

Syracuse had 3 players total drafted by the NFL.

Rutgers had 2 players total drafted by the NFL

Temple had 0 players drafted by the NFL during that time frame.

Narduzzi does a good job identifying good recruits and developing them into NFL talent.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

Yet look at how many players Narduzzi developed that got drafted into the NFL

No--look at wins and losses.

And why even mention 3 of the lowest programs in P5 in this conversation? Is that how you're measuring Pitt?

 

[pittmeister]

I’m just tired of Pitt constantly claiming they’re broke. The truth is, none of us truly know how much Alliance 412 brings in, or how much the Athletic Dept has….because they’re never transparent about it. But the narrative that Pitt is poor is tired and old.

I wouldn't say poor. However they can't outbid most schools in the SEC or Big Ten. They just make too much money and their alumni is so much bigger than Pitt it's hard to compete for top tier talent.

Can Pitt improve their recruiting? Difficult, but not impossible. They would need to hire better recruiters. That means top dollar like they are paying Partridge. (That's where the money should go instead of talking about an on campus stadium).

But even if you bring in better talent, can Pitt retain them?

Until the portal and the NIL get straighten out so the playing field is more even, Pitt and other schools of their ilk will be behind the 8 ball. I posted this earlier:

Star average under Narduzzi:

2016: 3.08
2017: 3.04
2018: 3.05
2019: 2.89 (re-ranked later to #9 class)
2020: 3.06
2021: 3.09
2022: 3.08
2023: 3.00
2024: 3.21

Ironically, the most productive class Narduzzi has had is 2019. It comes down to evaluation, development and now retainment.

 

[NatronaHeightsPanther]

I'm an offer sheet guy myself. There are always some outliers and exceptions, but for the most part:

Mid-major heavy sheet means mid-major talent. High major offer sheet means high major talent. Low end P5 sheet usually means low end P5 talent. Etc. etc.

i would also note that for some reason Pitt has had a pretty poor hit rate on its 4 star players over the past 15 years or so, with an alarming percentage of them not panning out. Again, the offer sheet is a better indicator than the site ratings. Not perfect, but better.

I’d agree there. But, then you get into the nuance about if an offer is commitable, which is annoying as well.

 

[thebadby2]

I’d agree there. But, then you get into the nuance about if an offer is commitable, which is annoying as well.

But when you see 5-10 top-25 programs on a guy's sheet, there's no reason to split that hair.

 

[Pitt79]

Back in the 70s when Pitt had the golden panthers and the playing field wasn’t as tilted Pitt could compete.

Why can't they get something like the Golden Panthers now? It's now legal to buy players.

 

[pittmeister]

Why can't they get something like the Golden Panthers now? It's now legal to buy players.

It's called Alliance 412

 

[forbesfield]

Why can't they get something like the Golden Panthers now? It's now legal to buy players.

The Golden Panthers weren't throwing around the kind of money that is being thrown around today, Burt Grossman's remark notwithstanding.

 

[pittmeister]

The Golden Panthers weren't throwing around the kind of money that is being thrown around today, Burt Grossman's remark notwithstanding.

Not even close...

 

[Pitt79]

It's called Alliance 412

I don't mean some sort of collective that average people donate $100 to, I mean something like very, very wealthy alumni giving really big money, because they have so much it's just for fun, to buy access to show off to their friends .

 

[Pitt79]

Not even close...

But with inflation wouldn't it be way more?

 

[pittmeister]

But with inflation wouldn't it be way more?

No trust me. I can tell you stories about other schools and how they operated behind the scenes in the 1980's. It's laughable what the schools got nailed for in those days.

 

[pittmeister]

I don't mean some sort of collective that average people donate $100 to, I mean something like very, very wealthy alumni giving really big money, because they have so much it's just for fun, to buy access to show off to their friends .

I understand, but I think the people you speak of have all gravitated to the Alliance 412.

 

[BTisinDC]

I’m just tired of Pitt constantly claiming they’re broke. The truth is, none of us truly know how much Alliance 412 brings in, or how much the Athletic Dept has….because they’re never transparent about it. But the narrative that Pitt is poor is tired and old.

Who cares how much they bring in? You don't think every other school has something similar? We're in a conference with a substantially lower payout than more than 30 other schools, we also have a substantially lower alumni base than 30+ other schools, but you see NO REASON that we shouldn't consistently be in the top 25.

Why would we consistently be there?

 

[cashisking884]

i would also note that for some reason Pitt has had a pretty poor hit rate on its 4 star players over the past 15 years or so, with an alarming percentage of them not panning out. Again, the offer sheet is a better indicator than the site ratings. Not perfect, but better.

Not going back 15 years because that seems excessive, but looking at the 247 average recruit ranking of Pitt 4* players fairly recently, and it’s not difficult to understand the bust rate:

Most are just barely 4* guys.

When you look at player rankings, even within Top 100 recruits, the analytics show it’s only about a 25% to 33% hit rate after you get past the 5* recruits. And then just goes down the more you go down in tiers. Imagine the hit rate amongst recruits with that 89 to 91 type rating? It’s low.

And those guys have made up most of the 4* recruits. The legit ranked 4* guys. Guys that were closer to being ranked a 5* than they were a 3*, guys like Ford, have hit.

There just aren’t many of them with that kind of recruit rating amongst the 4* rated recruits. So that’s the bust rate.

 

[NatronaHeightsPanther]

Who cares how much they bring in? You don't think every other school has something similar? We're in a conference with a substantially lower payout than more than 30 other schools, we also have a substantially lower alumni base than 30+ other schools, but you see NO REASON that we shouldn't consistently be in the top 25.

Why would we consistently be there?

Colorado had the 21st ranked class
Missouri had the 22nd ranked class
Kentucky had the 25th ranked class
NC State had the 28th ranked class

Louisville was 33
Syracuse was 34
Purdue was 35
UCF was 36

Pitt should be above all 4 of the last teams I mentioned, and should be on par with the teams inside the top 30. There is 0 excuse for them to be 47 and happy about it.

 

[pittmeister]

Colorado had the 21st ranked class
Missouri had the 22nd ranked class
Kentucky had the 25th ranked class
NC State had the 28th ranked class

Louisville was 33
Syracuse was 34
Purdue was 35
UCF was 36

Pitt should be above all 4 of the last teams I mentioned, and should be on par with the teams inside the top 30. There is 0 excuse for them to be 47 and happy about it.

How would you solve this gap?