OT: NBA Thread

[MarshallGoldberg]

below0w, you make a lot of good points but my main argument against Trae is simple. His defensive rating is among the five worst in the NBA and I don't see any reason to expect it to improve. If you score 30 and your opponent scores you, it's not a surprise your box score +/- is going to be less impressive than your admittedly big numbers.

I don't think its a lack of effort, he bounces around like a rag doll and tries to grab some steals, he just doesn't have the frame or good focus on that end.

 

[4upmc]

Great game last night with the Mavs beating the Bucks in OT. Giannis put up big numbers as he almost always does. And Luka was out of this world with 36 points, 14 rebounds and 19 assists. If you didn’t see the between the legs assist he had in OT you should look it up.

 

[Franb]

Great game last night with the Mavs beating the Bucks in OT. Giannis put up big numbers as he almost always does. And Luka was out of this world with 36 points, 14 rebounds and 19 assists. If you didn’t see the between the legs assist he had in OT you should look it up.

I don’t watch much NBA other than playoffs, and last night was my first time seeing Luka. Amazing game for him, and that assist, as our pal Dick Groat would say: WOW!

 

[thirteenNINE]

A handful of thoughts about the 2018 class to catch up with the conversation:

- Ayton was a forgone conclusion at one, Sarver is a big U of A donor and there were concerns internally about how well Doncic and Booker could share the ball (which are silly in retrospect and even were silly at the time). I like Ayton well enough, you can clearly see his value for the Suns in the Bubble, and if he can develop more of a defensive presence he'll be valuable in that Andre Drummond sort of way except with the ability to hit foul shots. You can't build around it though so the Suns are still one piece away...you know, someone like TJ Warren.

- As for centers, eh, the traditional center as centerpiece is pretty much dead and was even dead way back when Oden went ahead of Durant. To mention someone like Drummond again, he's a guy who 30 years ago teams would 100% run their offense through and he probably makes like ten All-Star games; now, with the evolution of shooting mechanics, offensive spacing, and the elimination of hand checking on the perimeter, he's almost an offensive liability. Efficient basketball just swings like that. If Shaq comes along today he probably never puts on the weight in order to more efficiently operate inside and plays more like Embiid or Towns, he'd still be dominant but just in a different way.

- Porter legit has a Kevin Durant ceiling, there's a reason that he would have gone first in that stacked draft before the spinal injury, and if he can hold together physically I think that he can definitely be the lead dog offensively for a title contender. 6'11" potential 50/40/90s just don't grow on trees and I can't believe that someone like the Clippers or Sixers weren't willing to roll those dice higher in that draft.

- Trae Young is just lesser Curry right now, he has good offensive gravity but his defense is a real issue and he needs to get that TS% up into the low to mid 60s to truly crack into being a franchise piece. I'll be very curious who Atlanta can add in this draft because it's such a mess of people with bad jumpers and they desperately need a shooter. Someone like Devin Vassell would be a great fit in my opinion because then you have Trae, a multi-positional perimeter hydra, and Collins as a smallball 5 which could really open things up to see what Young can do.

- Luka. Have mercy, what a player.

 

[4upmc]

I don’t watch much NBA other than playoffs, and last night was my first time seeing Luka. Amazing game for him, and that assist, as our pal Dick Groat would say: WOW!

WOW indeed. He’s fun to watch.

 

[below0w]

- Ayton was a forgone conclusion at one, Sarver is a big U of A donor and there were concerns internally about how well Doncic and Booker could share the ball (which are silly in retrospect and even were silly at the time). I like Ayton well enough, you can clearly see his value for the Suns in the Bubble, and if he can develop more of a defensive presence he'll be valuable in that Andre Drummond sort of way except with the ability to hit foul shots. You can't build around it though so the Suns are still one piece away...you know, someone like TJ Warren.

Sarver had the same concern about Jayson Tatum, that he couldn't play with Booker, so clearly the man has no idea what he's talking about. It's not like we didn't just see an utterly dominant team led by 3 shooters. Really, it's the most fundamental mistake you can make in sports - overvaluing "chemistry" before you have the right assets in place. The Suns didn't just fail at drafting the best available player - on multiple occasions they didn't even try (granted, Tatum wasn't available for them to pick, but it's illustrative of how ill equipped Sarver is to be a hands on owner if a guy is killing it from 3 and your first thought is, "what else can he do?")

- Porter legit has a Kevin Durant ceiling, there's a reason that he would have gone first in that stacked draft before the spinal injury, and if he can hold together physically I think that he can definitely be the lead dog offensively for a title contender. 6'11" potential 50/40/90s just don't grow on trees and I can't believe that someone like the Clippers or Sixers weren't willing to roll those dice higher in that draft.

I disagree that he has a Durant ceiling because I don't think he'll ever be the ball handler that Durant is. Durant grew into that ability as time passed, but it was always there from day one. Porter's not nearly as good at shooting off the dribble either. I understand the comparison, but it's overly flattering.

- Trae Young is just lesser Curry right now, he has good offensive gravity but his defense is a real issue and he needs to get that TS% up into the low to mid 60s to truly crack into being a franchise piece. I'll be very curious who Atlanta can add in this draft because it's such a mess of people with bad jumpers and they desperately need a shooter. Someone like Devin Vassell would be a great fit in my opinion because then you have Trae, a multi-positional perimeter hydra, and Collins as a smallball 5 which could really open things up to see what Young can do.

All of that will come. His defense is a real issue, but it's been steadily improving. I expected him to be a turnstile with his frame, and he was at first, but he improved from year 1 to year 2 and I'm confident that will continue. Curry managed to turn himself into a competent defender so the path is right there. I don't expect that Young will ever shoot like Curry, but I think he might already be a better distributor. Agreed about what the Hawks need to do, it's downright criminal that John Collins is by far their best threat from deep.

 

[TheChair]

A handful of thoughts about the 2018 class to catch up with the conversation:

- Ayton was a forgone conclusion at one, Sarver is a big U of A donor and there were concerns internally about how well Doncic and Booker could share the ball (which are silly in retrospect and even were silly at the time). I like Ayton well enough, you can clearly see his value for the Suns in the Bubble, and if he can develop more of a defensive presence he'll be valuable in that Andre Drummond sort of way except with the ability to hit foul shots. You can't build around it though so the Suns are still one piece away...you know, someone like TJ Warren.

- As for centers, eh, the traditional center as centerpiece is pretty much dead and was even dead way back when Oden went ahead of Durant. To mention someone like Drummond again, he's a guy who 30 years ago teams would 100% run their offense through and he probably makes like ten All-Star games; now, with the evolution of shooting mechanics, offensive spacing, and the elimination of hand checking on the perimeter, he's almost an offensive liability. Efficient basketball just swings like that. If Shaq comes along today he probably never puts on the weight in order to more efficiently operate inside and plays more like Embiid or Towns, he'd still be dominant but just in a different way.

- Porter legit has a Kevin Durant ceiling, there's a reason that he would have gone first in that stacked draft before the spinal injury, and if he can hold together physically I think that he can definitely be the lead dog offensively for a title contender. 6'11" potential 50/40/90s just don't grow on trees and I can't believe that someone like the Clippers or Sixers weren't willing to roll those dice higher in that draft.

- Trae Young is just lesser Curry right now, he has good offensive gravity but his defense is a real issue and he needs to get that TS% up into the low to mid 60s to truly crack into being a franchise piece. I'll be very curious who Atlanta can add in this draft because it's such a mess of people with bad jumpers and they desperately need a shooter. Someone like Devin Vassell would be a great fit in my opinion because then you have Trae, a multi-positional perimeter hydra, and Collins as a smallball 5 which could really open things up to see what Young can do.

- Luka. Have mercy, what a player.

I do not think the traditional center is dead if certain players came back around. I do not think Drummond is that type of player. I think he is limited offensively and not the type of athlete that overly compensates athleticism for skill (Shaq was that type of athlete). FWIW, I do not think Dwight Howard is that type of player either as he was always a very athletic PF acting as a center because he had limited offensive skill and the game went smaller.

I look at the center position and ask where did the guys like Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson, Shaq, etc. go? But, I mean, most of those guys (Hakeem and Robinson especially) would play fine in today's game. They would just extend their range a little more but they were a precursor to a lot of the guys that you see roaming the middle presently.

I think Shaq would just be an aberration. His physical dominance would translate though I agree that he would not be able to get too big like he did as a Laker.

I still think that the truly great Cs are king piece players but there just are not many of them around. Towns, Jokic and Embiid if healthy are guys that were Cs in any era and guys that presently you can build a championship team around (Embiid scares me as he does everyone else with his injury history but the other two certainly do not). I do not doubt that.

In another note, after watching him the past 4 games (which is an extremely small sample but still), I am all in on Porter. He has shown things that are so rare. If he ever decides to play any defense and can maintain that offensive game, Denver is immediately a championship contender. Jokic, Porter and Murray are enough, let alone the fact that they have some really nice depth pieces and another high upside guy in Bol Bol sitting around. I am just extremely impressed with him presently. He has been everything over the past 4-5 games that he was reputed to be long ago.

 

[TheChair]

Sarver had the same concern about Jayson Tatum, that he couldn't play with Booker, so clearly the man has no idea what he's talking about. It's not like we didn't just see an utterly dominant team led by 3 shooters. Really, it's the most fundamental mistake you can make in sports - overvaluing "chemistry" before you have the right assets in place. The Suns didn't just fail at drafting the best available player - on multiple occasions they didn't even try (granted, Tatum wasn't available for them to pick, but it's illustrative of how ill equipped Sarver is to be a hands on owner if a guy is killing it from 3 and your first thought is, "what else can he do?")



I disagree that he has a Durant ceiling because I don't think he'll ever be the ball handler that Durant is. Durant grew into that ability as time passed, but it was always there from day one. Porter's not nearly as good at shooting off the dribble either. I understand the comparison, but it's overly flattering.



All of that will come. His defense is a real issue, but it's been steadily improving. I expected him to be a turnstile with his frame, and he was at first, but he improved from year 1 to year 2 and I'm confident that will continue. Curry managed to turn himself into a competent defender so the path is right there. I don't expect that Young will ever shoot like Curry, but I think he might already be a better distributor. Agreed about what the Hawks need to do, it's downright criminal that John Collins is by far their best threat from deep.

I 100% agree with your first paragraph. Just take the best player and figure out the rest. It is rare in basketball that you cannot make it work unless you have two non-shooting PGs or relatively immobile 5s. The rest is negotiable. Get the talent.

I am very worried about Young's defense just like everyone else in this thread but he is smart, so I am hopeful that he can figure some things out and the organization can figure out ways to hide/adjust to him.

For whatever odd reason, I am not fully in on Young yet as a guy to build everything around. I am in on him as a unique and tremendous offensive talent. I just wonder the equation to get a championship level team around him. But like where we started, get the talent and then worry about these issues. You can do things when you have the talent.

That is the Pelicans likely scenario shortly, where they have talent but it does not quite fit. But, at least they have the talent. Ingram, Ball, Hart, Hayes, Alexander-Walker and Holiday are movable pieces (along with the Laker picks) and Ingram will attract a ransom in addition to the Laker ransom they already collected. If the idea is to build around Zion, they have plenty of options if they just pay these guys as they come up for contract and keep quiet about long-term intentions.

I think maybe they should have held at #4 last year and taken Hunter though (or maybe White or maybe taken Hachimura at #8). I did not like the idea of Hayes, physical talent but has no real basketball track record, once again being seduced by size I think. But they have talent and options, which is the point.

 

[pierre93]

Great game last night with the Mavs beating the Bucks in OT. Giannis put up big numbers as he almost always does. And Luka was out of this world with 36 points, 14 rebounds and 19 assists. If you didn’t see the between the legs assist he had in OT you should look it up.

Yeah I like Luka's game alot. He's gonna be a great one!! Cuban had Dirk now Luka, that's comparable to Lemieux now Crosby.

 

[TheChair]

Yeah I like Luka's game alot. He's gonna be a great one!! Cuban had Dirk now Luka, that's comparable to Lemieux now Crosby.

Cuban turned that franchise from a joke to one that everyone in the League would willingly play for tomorrow. In addition to Luka, they have Porzingis too. Provided they stay healthy, those two guys should bring at least one more championship back to Dallas over the next 10 years.

 

[Ski11585]

Cuban turned that franchise from a joke to one that everyone in the League would willingly play for tomorrow. In addition to Luka, they have Porzingis too. Provided they stay healthy, those two guys should bring at least one more championship back to Dallas over the next 10 years.

I think they need one other guy that is above average+ at getting his own shot. Porzingis is good, but he can't really create for himself a ton. One other guy on the wing takes pressure off Luka.

 

[4upmc]

Cuban turned that franchise from a joke to one that everyone in the League would willingly play for tomorrow. In addition to Luka, they have Porzingis too. Provided they stay healthy, those two guys should bring at least one more championship back to Dallas over the next 10 years.

Yep Cuban did an excellent job. I can see a chance at a Chip if they add a few more pieces. Either a real good 3rd guy or some defensive role players.

I think they need one other guy that is above average+ at getting his own shot. Porzingis is good, but he can't really create for himself a ton. One other guy on the wing takes pressure off Luka.

Agree. They could use another guy who can get his own shot consistently. Porzingis has to stay healthy and be much more consistent. Some games he is great and other games he is just a 7’ 3” guy who looks ordinary. He has a ton of talent but does not always play tough enough IMO. I’m not expecting him to be a beast in the paint because that’s not him. But many times he will have a guard switch on to him and get the ball in the post...instead of backing down the guard and powering to the hoop for a dunk he will let the guard root him out of the post and take a fade away.

42% from the field for Porzingis is not good enough.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

All three Texas teams have owners who are willing to pay to hire smart people and keep good players. And their fans for a "football state" are pretty great. I think I heard the Mavericks led the league in attendance (or at least were top 5) in the year they were bottom three in record.

I went to a Spurs game in San Antonio once, it was very much a game for like all kinds of fans. I was sitting next to a group of Latina grandmas in their knitted Spurs sweaters.

 

[pierre93]

Go Mavs!!!

 

[cease10]

Suns are now 6-0 in the bubble and might play their way into the playoffs. Only team that's still undefeated in the bubble.

 

[4upmc]

Suns are now 6-0 in the bubble and might play their way into the playoffs. Only team that's still undefeated in the bubble.

Devin Booker is a heck of a player. He’s more than just a scorer, he’s a playmaker for others.

Monty Williams has them playing excellent ball. It’s horrible what happened to his wife a few years back.

 

[TheChair]

Yep Cuban did an excellent job. I can see a chance at a Chip if they add a few more pieces. Either a real good 3rd guy or some defensive role players.




Agree. They could use another guy who can get his own shot consistently. Porzingis has to stay healthy and be much more consistent. Some games he is great and other games he is just a 7’ 3” guy who looks ordinary. He has a ton of talent but does not always play tough enough IMO. I’m not expecting him to be a beast in the paint because that’s not him. But many times he will have a guard switch on to him and get the ball in the post...instead of backing down the guard and powering to the hoop for a dunk he will let the guard root him out of the post and take a fade away.

42% from the field for Porzingis is not good enough.

I think that you hit the nail on the head in that Porzingis seems to lack a level of tough both in his game and temperament to this stage. And 42% for him shows that he commonly avoids play near the basket because no way should he shoot that percentage with his size and skill set.

To your point, at his height and skill, he can always get a good shot. He does not always (maybe almost never) work for it.

It is funny, because I think that he tries to play like Durant but should attempt to play like Dirk but he does not have Dirk's toughness nor the acuity with the skills in that type of all-time way. He may be able to sharpen the skills to that point; the mental though, I am not seeing it so far.

Still, in a playoff format, he is a frightening guy because if the dominant offensive player shows up, there is nothing you can really do with him. He can always go over guys. He extends out past 30. He plays good defense at 7'3."

I am not sure they need another really good guy as much as they need him to take the next step forward (which he really should be able to do) and then fill in around him and Doncic.

I talked a little above about solvable equations; I do not think that the Mavs have a hard one. They just need to keep guys healthy and hope that they show normal (or something close to it) lines of progress over the next 5 years.

 

[thirteenNINE]

Eh, I think that Porzingis very much is who he is as a player at this point in his career and what he is is really a stretched out Chris Bosh both in skillset and in temperament. He's a third banana sort of player who is going to stretch the floor and block some shots but can't carry your offensive load every night although he certainly can in spurts.

That doesn't mean that he doesn't need to improve his shooting, he's been below average every year of his career, but he's been a more efficient offensive player this year by completely stripping the midrange from his game. His mid range as a percentage of his offense dropped from 42.9% to 25.3% and his efficiency jumped accordingly from 105 to 110. If he can tick up the three point shooting to league average (he's currently -1.5%)then you suddenly have a very good player on both ends.

 

[cease10]

Last night's Nuggets/Lakers finish was thrilling. I was tired last night and fell asleep, but I woke up for Kuzma's game winning shot with 4 seconds left.

Bol Bol is SPECIAL. He is gonna be a problem in this league. His handle is awesome and he can shoot.

 

[Ski11585]

This Dallas-Portland game is a joy.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

This Dallas-Portland game is a joy.

Great Game!

 

[DT_PITT]

Great Game!

Incredible talent and shooters. Dame is incredible for sure.

 

[cease10]

Missed the Blazers game last night, but seemed like PG and Pat Bev stirred a fire within Dame. They better leave that man alone. That's not the man to talk thrash to. Dame will definitely back up his talk.

 

[TheChair]

Eh, I think that Porzingis very much is who he is as a player at this point in his career and what he is is really a stretched out Chris Bosh both in skillset and in temperament. He's a third banana sort of player who is going to stretch the floor and block some shots but can't carry your offensive load every night although he certainly can in spurts.

That doesn't mean that he doesn't need to improve his shooting, he's been below average every year of his career, but he's been a more efficient offensive player this year by completely stripping the midrange from his game. His mid range as a percentage of his offense dropped from 42.9% to 25.3% and his efficiency jumped accordingly from 105 to 110. If he can tick up the three point shooting to league average (he's currently -1.5%)then you suddenly have a very good player on both ends.

I would stress patience with him. This is only his 4th NBA season and he literally just turned 25. He has plenty of room to improve and came off a bad injury situation. It seems like he is just hitting his stride now as he has been strong so far in the bubble at 30+ PPG, 47% from the field and 38% from 3.

He certainly needs to improve his game and better utilize his size. But, to me at least, it is clear that he is still a potential #1 scoring option. There is too much available for him on the floor with his size/skill and he is still too young/inexperienced to cap his upside.

He also has the luxury of playing Doncic and will benefit more from that as they continue to play together.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

"Just turned 25" should be "entering your prime", so I somewhat disagree with above post.

“[We] looked at the impact various factors have on NBA performance. Aging was one of those factors, and what we found is that player performance tends to peak around 26. After that, players start to decline: slowly at first, and then precipitously.”

 

[TheChair]

"Just turned 25" should be "entering your prime", so I somewhat disagree with above post.

“[We] looked at the impact various factors have on NBA performance. Aging was one of those factors, and what we found is that player performance tends to peak around 26. After that, players start to decline: slowly at first, and then precipitously.”

I guess that I am old fashioned, but when I think peak NBA performance, I think 28-32. First Jordan Bulls run, Shaq Lakers run, Kobe second Lakers run, LeBron Heat/second Cav run, Bird in the mid-80s, Durant with GSW, Curry with GSW, etc.

I think Porzingis has some years of improvement left.

 

[cease10]

I guess that I am old fashion, but when I think peak NBA performance, I think 28-32. First Jordan Bulls run, Shaq Lakers run, Kobe second Lakers run, LeBron Heat/second Cav run, Bird in the mid-80s, Durant with GSW, Curry with GSW, etc.

I think Porzingis has some years of improvement left.

I'm with you. I was thinking the exact same thing. Not sure where the previous poster pulled that quote from.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Think 25 to 30 are peak years. The best of ty best last into early 30s. The freaks last into mid 30s.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

I guess that I am old fashioned, but when I think peak NBA performance, I think 28-32. First Jordan Bulls run, Shaq Lakers run, Kobe second Lakers run, LeBron Heat/second Cav run, Bird in the mid-80s, Durant with GSW, Curry with GSW, etc.

I think Porzingis has some years of improvement left.

Yeah we probably just disagree, but my point was 25 was the start of a prime, not some young guy with a lot of room left at least for statistical improvement. A lot of the players you talked about either got better teammates and/or became better team players as they got older, so they won more for whatever reason. But generally had pretty incredible skills and pretty much started their peak advanced stats by 25. I basically was reacting to "only 25" as if it is 19 or something.

The better comparisons for Porzingis is probably other guys who were not legends like you named but like high level role players/lowest level all star? Of course there have been almost no one like him I can remember in terms of being a 7'3" pick and pop shooter etc. The other issue with comparing the unicorn is he plays less games and less minutes than most stars would.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Don't like this Westbrook news. Hope he's good to go for playoffs.

 

[TheChair]

Yeah we probably just disagree, but my point was 25 was the start of a prime, not some young guy with a lot of room left at least for statistical improvement. A lot of the players you talked about either got better teammates and/or became better team players as they got older, so they won more for whatever reason. But generally had pretty incredible skills and pretty much started their peak advanced stats by 25. I basically was reacting to "only 25" as if it is 19 or something.

The better comparisons for Porzingis is probably other guys who were not legends like you named but like high level role players/lowest level all star? Of course there have been almost no one like him I can remember in terms of being a 7'3". The other issue with comparing the unicorn is he plays less games and less minutes than most stars would.

I do not know if we are really that far apart on certain things. I will say that I think that line of thinking concerning 25 as the start of a prime has hurt basketball a good deal. Yes, 25 is not 19 but 25 is still ample time to improve. People have gotten so afraid of protecting upside that really good 22 year old college basketball players are often severely undervalued, let alone 25-27 year old professional/NBA players.

I see guys like TJ Warren (around 26), Bogan Bogdanovic (31), Danilo Gallinari (32), Marcus Smart (26), etc. still solidly improving their games, becoming noticeably more consistent or valuable within the team structure. I mean, we talk about Wanamaker a lot on these boards because he is a Pitt guy though he is just another guy in the NBA and he has continued to improve and is 31 now. Giannis is 25-26 and still solidly improving in facets which is crazy given how valuable he already is. By 28, he may be a different type of beast than he already is.

You can continue to get better, even much better at 25. It is all relative to where you are and how much you have left to grow/develop more consistency.

This Porzingis kid, you look at the numbers, the time in the NBA, his overall skill set and I just think it is easy to say that he could have a lot of improvement left to be had in his relatively near future. His upside warrants more a look at some unicorns in my opinion though if he ends up as a low level All-Star (which he basically already is), he will still be a tremendous player to have next to Doncic.

 

[TheSpecialSauce]

Sixers vs Raptors - Another exciting game.

 

[PA_Panther]

Yesterday seemed like a week 17 in the NFL of playoff teams... Today we got some real action four teams for two spots. NBA knocked this playin round out of the park. Rooting for the suns here to sneak into the play in round.

 

[Ski11585]

Yesterday seemed like a week 17 in the NFL of playoff teams... Today we got some real action four teams for two spots. NBA knocked this playin round out of the park. Rooting for the suns here to sneak into the play in round.

They really have. Lots of teams playing competitively. Close entertaining games.

 

[thirteenNINE]

Really hard luck that Phoenix goes 8-0 and still needs a red-hot Portland team to lose in order just to try to beat Memphis twice but they should be in good position to add some more talent in the lottery. After a slow start Cam Johnson looks as though he's going to be a good player for them and you have to like their potential for next year.

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

This Blazers Nets game has been something.

 

[pittjas]

This Blazers Nets game has been something.

Both of these teams are fringe playoff teams and yet the skill level has been crazy. Really opens your eyes to the skill difference from the college game

 

[Drew1208]

Lillard just is ridiculous

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Both of these teams are fringe playoff teams and yet the skill level has been crazy. Really opens your eyes to the skill difference from the college game

Oh... Yeah. It's pretty drastic. Just look at the young guys you remember playing in college and how much smoother most of them become as pros.

Nets are playing VERY hard and pretty damn well. Kind of an overlooked bubble story. My Raptors will be pushed by that squad. Actually expecting that to be pretty tough series. Nets playing with a lot confidence and nothing to lose. Then... They add Durant and Kyrie next season. They'll be like the Clippers next season.

 

[DT_PITT]

This Blazers Nets game has been something.

Absolutely loved every minute of this game. My son and I had a blast.

The abilities of NBA players to shoot a basketball has gone off the charts in the bubble.

And then there's Dame who's on another planet.