Saturday Morning Bubble - Bubble Viewing Guide 2/27

[UPitt '89]

With it being Saturday, lots and lots of bubble teams are in action. This could be a pivotal weekend for our Panthers.

Pitt's Current Status
RPI: 45
Chances: 49.8%

Friday's Winners

Akron

The Zips kept their season from "spinning out of control" by avoiding a second bad loss of the week. By blowing out Bowling Green, their chances ticked up from 44.6% to 47.5%.

Valparaiso

Valpo managed to pull out an 80-76 overtime victory at Milwaukee and saw their chances climb from 78.5% to 83.1%

Monmouth

Frankly, there are no decent pictures of Monmouth cheerleaders. So their creative bench gets another spotlight. Their blowout win of Rider last night barely moved the needle, from 45.3% to 45.4%. They probably have to get to the MAAC final at a bare minimum without any other losses.


Friday's Losers

None. No bubble teams lost.


Saturday's Bubble Action

Cincinnati (RPI: 60 Chances: 87.6%)
at East Carolina
noon, ESPNU
- The Bearcats can't afford a loss at last-place East Carolina. Go Pirates!

UCF
at Temple (RPI: 57 Chances: 59.7%)
noon, ESPNN
- The Owls are right now the 4th of 4 AAC teams that are in the dance if the selection was today. A home loss against a bad UCF team would drop them out. Go Knights!

Butler (RPI: 65 Chances: 51.7%)
at Georgetown
noon, CBS
- The Bulldogs are right on the edge. A road win moved them into the dance, a loss moves them out. This is a BIG game. Go Hoyas!

VCU (RPI: 63 Chances: 68.7%)
at George Washington (RPI: 48 Chances: 40.9%)
12:30, NBCSN
- This is a big game for both teams, but bigger for GW. A home loss would be very damaging to their chances, a road loss for VCU would be less damaging. Go Rams!

Towson
at UNC-Wilmington (RPI: 66 Chances: 34.2%)
1:00, no TV
- Another loss by the Seahawks would put the nail in their at-large coffin. Go Tigers!

NCSU
at Syracuse (RPI: 59 Chances: 36.9%)
2:00, ESPN3
- This is a critical game for the Orange. This is their last home game and they have two difficult road games to follow. A loss here could lead to a season-ending 5-game losing streak. This is a MUST win. Go Wolfpack!

Kentucky
at Vanderbilt (RPI: 56 Chances: 61.0%)
4:00, CBS
- A home win against Kentucky would likely punch Vandy's ticket. Go Wildcats!

Charleston
at Hofstra (RPI: 61 Chances: 41.7%)
4:00, no TV
- Hofstra must win the rest of their games up to the conference final to have a chance at an at large. Go Cougars!

Depaul
at Providence (RPI: 42 Chances: 43.0%)
4:00, CBSSN
- The Friars are in a tailspin, having lost 6 of their past 8. A home loss against Depaul would be fatal. Go Blue Demons!

UMass
at St. Bonaventure (RPI: 36 Chances: 63.0%)
4:00, no TV
- The Bonnies have put themselves in a good position. A home loss to UMass would be very harmful to their chances. Go Minutemen!

Auburn
at Alabama (RPI: 53 Chances: 11.3%)
5:00, SECN
- The Tide are on life support. A loss in the hoops version of the Iron Bowl would be the end. Go Tigers!

Gonzaga (RPI: 69 Chances: 55.6%)
at BYU (RPI: 70 Chances: 27.6%)
8:00, ESPN2
- Both teams likely need to win the WCC, but hold on to slim at-large hopes. Go Cougars!

Florida (RPI: 44 Chances: 44.8%)
at LSU
8:30, ESPN
- LSU is now dead, barring an SEC title. Florida, with a road win, would move back into the field. Go Tigers!

 

[Piranha]

We need Davidson and SU to get into RPI Top 50.

 

[UPitt '89]

We need Davidson and SU to get into RPI Top 50.

You're right about Davidson.

But keeping Syracuse behind us on the bubble is worth more than their RPI getting under 50, in my view.

 

[wolf0717]

You're right about Davidson.

But keeping Syracuse behind us on the bubble is worth more than their RPI getting under 50, in my view.

The thing is that one of the biggest things going for Pitt is that it beat Syracuse twice. Wouldn't a home loss by Syracuse also hurt Pitt's RPI.

 

[UPitt '89]

The thing is that one of the biggest things going for Pitt is that it beat Syracuse twice. Wouldn't a home loss by Syracuse also hurt Pitt's RPI.

Not much, since the road win by NCSU helps us a little. It would be a minor dip.

We might get into a situation where either pitt or Syracuse makes it, but not both.

It's iffy. But I'm pulling for NCSU.

 

[Piranha]

You're right about Davidson.

But keeping Syracuse behind us on the bubble is worth more than their RPI getting under 50, in my view.

If we end up around 40, and SU is in the Top 50 then we are in. If SU is in the 30's, then we are both in. Bottom Line - we want SU to get into RPI Top 50 because it will improve the RPI and our resume will look a lot better. Take Ville out of the equation, and SMU. That opens 2 more slots.

If we end up on the bubble, and only have 1 quality win, then we will probably not get in. There is a big difference between 1 vs 3 or 4.

 

[UPitt '89]

If we end up around 40, and SU is in the Top 50 then we are in. If SU is in the 30's, then we are both in. Bottom Line - we want SU to get into RPI Top 50 because it will improve the RPI and our resume will look a lot better. Take Ville out of the equation, and SMU. That opens 2 more slots.

If we end up on the bubble, and only have 1 quality win, then we will probably not get in. There is a big difference between 1 vs 3 or 4.

I see your point. But I also don't want Syracuse to move ahead of Pitt in the ACC standings. Right now, they're tied and Pitt has the tiebreaker.

Don't want the 8/9 game of the ACC tourney. Much better off with the 7-seed.

 

[Piranha]

I see your point. But I also don't want Syracuse to move ahead of Pitt in the ACC standings. Right now, they're tied and Pitt has the tiebreaker.

Don't want the 8/9 game of the ACC tourney. Much better off with the 7-seed.

Realistically - it does not matter if we finish 7,8, or 9 for the ACC tourney. UNC, Duke, Miami, and UVA are all tough match ups that we will more than likely lose to if we play them.

 

[CJ_Pittfan]

I see your point. But I also don't want Syracuse to move ahead of Pitt in the ACC standings. Right now, they're tied and Pitt has the tiebreaker.

Don't want the 8/9 game of the ACC tourney. Much better off with the 7-seed.

If Pitt wins, then I'm rooting for Syracuse to win, since both will help our RPI. But if Pitt loses, I want Syracuse to lose too so we stay ahead of them in the standings.

 

[BFo8]

I very much enjoy UPitt's efforts with these updates. It looks like a hell of a lot of work for him, and it is appreciated.

My only complaint (not with The OP obviously), is the source that provides the % chance of each team making the tournament, many are way off. Providence for example is listed as having a 43% chance of getting in. As bad as they are struggling at 19-9, I think everyone can agree that with 2 more wins they are definitely in. Based on current and projected money lines they are about a 70% favorite to sweep their games against DePaul and St Johns, giving them better than a 70% of making the tournament.

 

[UPitt '89]

I very much enjoy UPitt's efforts with these updates. It looks like a hell of a lot of work for him, and it is appreciated.

My only complaint (not with The OP obviously), is the source that provides the % chance of each team making the tournament, many are way off. Providence for example is listed as having a 43% chance of getting in. As bad as they are struggling at 19-9, I think everyone can agree that with 2 more wins they are definitely in. Based on current and projected money lines they are about a 70% favorite to sweep their games against DePaul and St Johns, giving them better than a 70% of making the tournament.

The source is teamrankings.com

Providence has three games remaining, and here are there odds of winning each:

Date Opponent Loc Win Odds
2/27 DePaul Home 88.4%
3/2 Creighton Home 59.9%
3/5 St Johns Away 77.0%

.884 * .599 * .770 = .407

40.7% chance of sweeping their remaining games. I think, with Providence's recent tailspin, they need 3 wins out of their 4 guaranteed remaining games (first game of BE tournament). They are 7-8 in the BE. I don't think just 9 BE wins will cut it.

They're 5-8 in their last 13 games.... .and included in those 8 losses are losses against Depaul, Marquette (twice), and Seton Hall (twice).

They're in big trouble.

 

[UPitt '89]

So far today.... 5 bubble winners, and only 1 bubble loser. Not Good.

Winners:
UNC-Wilmington
Cincinnati
Temple
Butler
VCU

Losers:
George Washington


Need some more bubblers to lose today to help Pitt's position.... especially Vandy, St. Bonaventure, and Florida - all of which are close to Pitt on the bubble.

 

[orange830]

Not much, since the road win by NCSU helps us a little. It would be a minor dip.

We might get into a situation where either pitt or Syracuse makes it, but not both.

It's iffy. But I'm pulling for NCSU.

I think we both get in, Syracuse's resume is too good, and plus the committee is going to take into account that Boeheim wasn't there for 9 games. Pitt will get in, don't worry.