I appreciate this insight. I think Horton is going to play more minutes than Murphy next year. Taller, longer, stronger, more athletic, and a better shooter. Capel's praise for him last week was really significant.
As for the rest, I do think you're right in saying that the "base" lineup will probably be X as a lead guard, a big, and three "other" players - who I believe will be Trey, Toney, and Champagnie. That said, while we've definitely heard Capel talk about the advantages of a one guard, three wing, one big lineup...we've also heard him talk quite a bit about the matchup problems that that style of lineup has against a team with two effective forwards.
I think that the personnel he's recruiting and that will be on the roster for the 2020-21 season and beyond will give a whole lot of flexibility and give opponents a few different looks. When you play Pitt next year, you could conceivably prepare for and play against several different teams:
Base: X, Trey, Champagnie, Toney, Brown
"Traditional": X, Trey, Champagnie/Toney, Hugley, Brown
Athletic Traditional: X, Trey, Champagnie/Toney, Collier, Brown
Three guard, wing, big: X, Trey, Horton, Toney/Champagnie, Brown
Shooter: X, Trey, Murphy, Horton, Hugley
Long/Rebounding: X, Toney/Champagnie, Collier, Hugley, Amadasun