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Vader Recruiting: Horton, Odukale, And Early Thoughts on Next Year

Vader_Storm

Sophomore
Dec 16, 2018
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Ithiel Horton


As a true freshmen Ithiel Horton made 81 three pointers and had an offensive rating of 108 with a 41% 3 point shooting percentage. Im going to put into perspective how rare that is as a freshman to accomplish those three numbers hand in hand.

Of all 353 college teams combined, 5 Total players in all of Division 1 basketball made 81 or more 3 point shots as a true freshmen this year. Only 2 of those 5 players had an offensive rating better than 108 with a 40%+ 3 point shooting percentage in all of college basketball. Of those 2 freshmen that did what Horton did as a freshmen, one already declared for the NBA draft. This is rare company.


Horton is going to start and is going to open up our entire offense. This is a player that can make a lot of 3’s and hit very deep 3’s. There isn’t any hope here as he has proven how good of a shooter he is already. This was a player that was scoring over 20 points per game with an offensive rating over 150 in the final games of his freshmen season. And he redshirted this year.


When Wilson-Frame was a Panther he helped open up our offense with his 3 point shooting. This severely helped X and Trey as freshmen, since both had an offensive rating of 99 with solid freshmen seasons. Without Frame’s 3 point shooting and playing against constant sagging zone defenses, X’s offensive rating fell to 93 and Mcgowens fell to a 91 this year.


Murphy’s shooting ability was mostly all talk without walk. Ryan Murphy finished the season with 42 made 3 balls at 33% shooting, which are dismal numbers for a 3 point only specialist. As for Mcgowens, he finished the season 3rd worst on the team in offensive rating and with a team worst -61 in plus minus for the season. Mcgowens regressed more than anyone the final 10 games.


To be an NCAA team , 8 players need to be very close to or above 100 in offensive rating in ORTG. The magic number is about 8. This is where we finished this year.

Toney-109

Horton-108 (year prior)

Champagnie-108

Brown-104

X-93

Coulibaly-89

Drumgoole-61


This obviously is not good enough.


Next year, Im very confident with Toney, Champagnie, and Horton being around 110 or better. I think its possible any of the 3 could challenge for 120. I think with Horton, it is fairly likely X gets to 100 or better as X was almost at 100 as a freshmen.


X really needs to clean up his shooting and his turnovers. In X’s final 3 games he had 17 turnovers this year. He still isn’t getting it with respect to protecting the basketball and not turning it over. As an upperclassman he needs to step up next year.


I think Coulibaly is going to see a jump next year and will push for a 100 rating. I have much less confidence in Drumgoole at this point even with his foot injury this year. His play and shooting leave a lot to be desired. Drumgoole had one of the lowest rock bottom offensive ratings of any new freshmen that came into this program in the last 20 years and that includes all the walkon players. Drumgoole was far and away that bad.


I think this is our opening day starting 5.

Pg-X-Junior

Sg-Horton- RS Soph.

Sf-Toney-Junior

Pf-Champagnie-Soph

C-Hugley-Freshman


Other notes:

I expect a faster tempo next year and a much more aggressive defense. I expect to see more press, traps and double teams. We had success with it this year. I think we will have much more success with it next year with more players available and better talented athletes.


I think Femi Odukale is ready and significantly underrated. I think he contributes immediately. And I think Jeff Capel is very high on his ability as Jeff Capel pressed this kid hard to commit over a lot of other potential targets. Odukale will be 20 years old next winter. He was the catalyst off the full court press for Springfield this year and pushing the ball in transition. With his length on the floor and ability on defense with Toney, we are going to force quite a bit of turnovers and get our transition game on offense going again.


Odukale broke the all time school record with assists this year at Springfield against high level competition. He registered more assists this year as a prep senior (9 assists per game) than any other player to come into this program in the last 20 years. I would also reiterate that in the last 2 recruiting classes, our worst rated recruit by the recruiting services (X and Champ) was our best freshmen performer. Don’t be surprised if Odukale keeps that trend intact. He has a relentless work ethic with a NY junkyard dog meanness and toughness on the floor.


I think Collier and Amadasun will be minimal spare backups as freshmen at this point.


Will Jeffress is the wildcard player. And I say that because of his age. Jeffress has made pretty significant strides with his shooting and his handle this year. He has a lot more guard in him than what is getting mentioned and I think he can get some time as a 2 this year even though he is a projected wing. I think Jeffress has the height, athleticism, and skills to be a multi-utility player that can swing between multiple positions as a freshman. With Jeffress being an excellent student with a high IQ and thirst for knowledge, he should be able to adapt much faster to this type of role. I will be surprised if he redshirted. I think other players may be redshirted before him.


The ACC will be down again next year. I made this claim repeatedly last summer before ACC play started this year. Im not sure yet how down the ACC will be as the rosters aren’t finalized, but expect a fairly weak ACC again.


The staff obvious wants Trey Murphy. With a 115-offensive rating through 2 seasons, 140 made three balls, and a combined 3 point shooting percentage of 38%, he helps to address our shooting weakness from 3. He has also shown the ability to hit the 3 off the bounce as well as the catch, making him more valuable.


Our rebounding next year will be better. Femi Odukale is a monstrous upgrade rebounding over Murphy or Mcgowens and I want to highlight the word Monstrous. And I think Hugley is going to be a significant upgrade rebounding in the paint.


Our team passing next year will be much better. I have raved about the passing ability of Hugley and Odukale. From day 1, I think John Hugley establishes himself as one of the top passing bigs in the ACC. In 3 full seasons Terrell Brown has 28 total assists. Hugley should challenge to beat that total in half a season. Hamilton and Brown for the entire season combined last year had 10 total assists. Hugley should challenge to beat that in his first 5 games.


The team balance scoring next year should be much better. We should get legit scoring punch from at least 4 positions and the depth should be much better. With Horton’s shooting ability, the newcomers passing ability, and with a better transition game, our offense should make a significant jump next year with improvement over this year. I think Odukale and Hugley will both challenge for a 100+ level offensive rating as freshmen.


Lastly, I am happy the New York toughness is coming back to this program. This program was built on talent and toughness from New York. Players like Krauser, Fields, Taft, Ramon, Benjamin, Page, Woodall, etc.. Champagnie is from Brooklyn NY and so is his future teammate, Odukale.


Femi Odukale was recently voted the National Prep Player of the Year runner up this year. Sam Young was National prep player of the year at Hargrave Miltary before he was an All American at Pitt.

Everyone should be very excited with the talent coming into this program next season.... This is an outstanding recruiting class.
 
Vader thank you, great write up! I think there is a lot to look forward too as well, it’s going to be fun to eventually see Pitt return to national prominence.

I do think Brown will still play. Yes we all know what we are getting but he brings senior experience. I just feel that he will be involved maybe more than people think he will. We will see...
 
Some quality analysis in the OP.

Two points that I would differ a bit on is the depth and Jeffries ability to play guard.

People thought the depth would be good last season because they had more bodies with some talent to play at this level, but there is a lag in terms of their ability to actually contribute in a meaningful way.

It does look like we have more "depth" than last year, but last year ended up close to HCJC's first year, with barely more than the complete lack of depth he had that first year.

Forward - (not factoring in Jeffries until they actually have him committed) they have a two deep with Champ/Toney and Collier/Drumgoole. Yes, there is depth, but you noted GD has to make a lot of progress to even be a bit contibutor and while I like Colliers talent a good bit, he does not seem to be a guy who you can count on game in and game out to help you win games as a frosh.

- Guard, they have X, Horton, Femi (who I do feel pretty good can be a good contributor as a frosh backup) and that is it. GD might be able to play some seconds here or there at 2G, but as of today that is all they have.

Center - unless AKC makes massive improvement or Max is a major surprise, realistically they will be in a rotation similar to what they had HCJCs first two years, there is some hope Hugs can be better than Kene or Hamilton his frosh year, and there should be some actual depth with AKC.

Jeffries is not a guard. He is very adept and confident with the ball, but he is not a freak athlete who could play defense on a guard for any more than a switch off here or there.
 
Some quality analysis in the OP.

Two points that I would differ a bit on is the depth and Jeffries ability to play guard.

People thought the depth would be good last season because they had more bodies with some talent to play at this level, but there is a lag in terms of their ability to actually contribute in a meaningful way.

It does look like we have more "depth" than last year, but last year ended up close to HCJC's first year, with barely more than the complete lack of depth he had that first year.

Forward - (not factoring in Jeffries until they actually have him committed) they have a two deep with Champ/Toney and Collier/Drumgoole. Yes, there is depth, but you noted GD has to make a lot of progress to even be a bit contibutor and while I like Colliers talent a good bit, he does not seem to be a guy who you can count on game in and game out to help you win games as a frosh.

Actually I liked your comments more than Vader's. He's always overboard
with the positives about our recruits.
You questioned the depth at the forward position with Champ and Toney,
backed up by Drumgoole and Collier. I agree. Drumgoole has given us
nothing so far. I hope. The question he improves greatly from his injury
Drumgoole and Collier.

- Guard, they have X, Horton, Femi (who I do feel pretty good can be a good contributor as a frosh backup) and that is it. GD might be able to play some seconds here or there at 2G, but as of today that is all they have.

Center - unless AKC makes massive improvement or Max is a major surprise, realistically they will be in a rotation similar to what they had HCJCs first two years, there is some hope Hugs can be better than Kene or Hamilton his frosh year, and there should be some actual depth with AKC.

Jeffries is not a guard. He is very adept and confident with the ball, but he is not a freak athlete who could play defense on a guard for any more than a switch off here or there.

Very good response to Vader, who tends to be over exuberant when it
comes to our recruits.
You questioned depth at the forward position. You're right, Drumgoole
has done nothing so far (injury?), and Collier is a question mark. My
feeling is this is the big chance for Brown. I'd like to see him get some
minutes here relieving Champ or Toney, and seeing time as a PF. He
has a mid range jumper and it would give us a different look occasionally.
Hugley with some minutes at PF alonside a Big?....Maybe.

You explained the guard position with X, Horton, and Odukale. You were
exactly right when you said...."that is all they have." I don't care how
we slice and dice this on here....we NEED another guard. Drumgoole
is not the answer. I feel we need a combo guard, preferably a grad
transfer.

Center...even though I like the Brown experiment at forward, he could
still get minutes at Center along with Hugley, Coulibaly, and
Amadason. Who knows....maybe Hugley could also play some forward.
He has a decent outside shot, and supposedly can pass the ball effectively.
I expect Coulibaly to be much improved. Amadason?...no idea, but he
doesn't have to be forced on to he floor. We have numbers.
All in all....Capel has more options this year. Let's see how he puts this
all together.
 
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Some quality analysis in the OP.

Two points that I would differ a bit on is the depth and Jeffries ability to play guard.

People thought the depth would be good last season because they had more bodies with some talent to play at this level, but there is a lag in terms of their ability to actually contribute in a meaningful way.

It does look like we have more "depth" than last year, but last year ended up close to HCJC's first year, with barely more than the complete lack of depth he had that first year.

Forward - (not factoring in Jeffries until they actually have him committed) they have a two deep with Champ/Toney and Collier/Drumgoole. Yes, there is depth, but you noted GD has to make a lot of progress to even be a bit contibutor and while I like Colliers talent a good bit, he does not seem to be a guy who you can count on game in and game out to help you win games as a frosh.

- Guard, they have X, Horton, Femi (who I do feel pretty good can be a good contributor as a frosh backup) and that is it. GD might be able to play some seconds here or there at 2G, but as of today that is all they have.

Center - unless AKC makes massive improvement or Max is a major surprise, realistically they will be in a rotation similar to what they had HCJCs first two years, there is some hope Hugs can be better than Kene or Hamilton his frosh year, and there should be some actual depth with AKC.

Jeffries is not a guard. He is very adept and confident with the ball, but he is not a freak athlete who could play defense on a guard for any more than a switch off here or there.
I really hope Hugley is better than Kene and Hamilton.

Hugley / Brown / AKC needs to be better than Kene / Brown or Brown/Hamilton/ AKc .

Next season rests almost entirely on our top 4 of X, Toney, Champagnie, and Horton and then find 4 role players .

When we were rolling under Howland / Dixon - the junior year was often the big leap. Hopefully we see the same from X and Toney .
 
As a true freshmen Ithiel Horton made 81 three pointers and had an offensive rating of 108 with a 41% 3 point shooting percentage. Im going to put into perspective how rare that is as a freshman to accomplish those three numbers hand in hand.

Agree we should be high on Horton's 3-ball shooting. Caveat--we haven't seen him shoot those longer range 3s now required since the line was moved further out. He probably won't shoot 41% but probably still at least 35%, IMHO.

I think Coulibaly is going to see a jump next year and will push for a 100 rating. I have much less confidence in Drumgoole at this point even with his foot injury this year. His play and shooting leave a lot to be desired. Drumgoole had one of the lowest rock bottom offensive ratings of any new freshmen that came into this program in the last 20 years and that includes all the walkon players. Drumgoole was far and away that bad.

Agree on Coulibaly likely being improved.. Not quite as doubtful on Drumgoole. He obviously showed enough very early on (against Maryland in closed scrimmage) and in the exhibition game and in practice (presumably) for Capel to start him in game #1. Hopefully the rest of the season was due to injury and freshman loss of confidence.

I think this is our opening day starting 5.

Pg-X-Junior
Sg-Horton- RS Soph.
Sf-Toney-Junior
Pf-Champagnie-Soph
C-Hugley-Freshman


Agree on this as the likely game #1 starting lineup. IMHO, it will also likely be the group of 5 who get the vast majority by far of the PT/game early-on during the predominantly OOC part of the season.

However, I don't expect it necessarily remain that way in terms of total PT either by January in ACC play or at the tail end of the season. Some of the other newcomers will gradually be gaining minutes of PT/game as the season progresses. As a result, the amount of PT/game of the game #1 starters should gradually decrease (but not drop below the level of so-called "starters minutes") as the newcomers contribute more, IMHO.


I expect a faster tempo next year and a much more aggressive defense.

Agree on the faster tempo. That is what prompted my remark above about game #1 starters PT decreasing as the newcomers gain increasing PT to support more pressing defense and more running out on offense (as compared to the past season).

I think Femi Odukale is ready and significantly underrated. I think he contributes immediately.

I also agree that Odukale will likely prove better than the star and numerical ratings he received from the recruiting gurus. However, I am not confident he will be far better as you suggest. Time will tell.

I think Collier and Amadasun will be minimal spare backups as freshmen at this point.

I agree about Amadasun. He is athletic but raw skills-wise. However, I believe you may be underrating Collier's potential for PT. IMHO, if Collier is, as reported. at least 6-8 (maybe even close to 6-9) he could very well see time (given his plus athleticism and ball skills) as the second big when we run a two big lineup. A two big lineup, IMHO, is something we should expect to see a lot more of this season.

Will Jeffress is the wildcard player. . . . I will be surprised if he redshirted. I think other players may be redshirted before him.

You suggest that Jeffress commit to Pitt is a done deal. The recruiting gurus agree we lead but he hasn't yet committed so they don't view it as "a lock." It appears you maybe jumping the gun here unless you have true inside info.

The ACC will be down again next year.

Other seem to believe it won't be down again. Have to wait and see. Also, need to seewhat our specific ACC schedule looks like to evaluate whether we can win more games in the ACC.

The staff obvious wants Trey Murphy.

Would love to have him--especially if NCAA were to grant all transfers immediate eligibility. Having another good 3-ball shooter fills a big need on this team.

Our rebounding next year will be better.


Agree that our rebounding will be better. It is hard to believe it wouldn't be better given the influx of bigger newcomers.

Our team passing next year will be much better.


Would like to agree about this. We certainly could use better passing. However, I am not as convinced Odukale will get enough PT to make a difference or even that Hugley will get enough minutes per game to ensure it will happen.


The team balance scoring next year should be much better. . . . , our offense should make a significant jump . . . . I think Odukale and Hugley will both challenge for a 100+ level offensive rating as freshmen.

Agree we should have better team balance scoring next season. However, I am not convinced Odukale (especially) and Hugley will be the primary reason for it. IMHO, it will happen as a function of the greater overall depth and depth of talent available--not just those two.

Lastly, I am happy the New York toughness is coming back to this program. This program was built on talent and toughness from New York. . . . Champagnie is from Brooklyn NY and so is his future teammate, Odukale.

Don't forget Amadasun playing in the NYC area and the Philly area inroads (Collier).
 
I really hope Hugley is better than Kene and Hamilton.

Hugley / Brown / AKC needs to be better than Kene / Brown or Brown/Hamilton/ AKc .

Next season rests almost entirely on our top 4 of X, Toney, Champagnie, and Horton and then find 4 role players .

When we were rolling under Howland / Dixon - the junior year was often the big leap. Hopefully we see the same from X and Toney .


There is no way he isn't gonna be better than Kene and Hamilton. I don't
usually get this so cocksure about a recruit. However in this case, given
how badly those two produced, he can't help but be better.
Kene in his second season hustled and worked hard, I liked his work
ethic, but that's it. He really didn't accomplish much.
Hamilton, same thing...he was a workhorse and I liked his effort. He
also gave us little inside. I would take him as a backup to a real
Center. Both of then came here with little or no credentials, and really
we shouldn't have expected much.

I've never seen Hugley on the court obviously. I doubt that his reputation
is all hype and that he's overated. He has skills the other two never had,
and still don't have. He's gonna make freshman mistakes I'm sure. He
has to adjust to the college game of course, but I see him as a major
improvement over the other two. He also doesnt have to be forced into
action because he's one of four Bigs. Two of those Bigs have experience,
so that should also help.
 
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IMO Jeffress handles the ball better than GD an looks to be more athletic then GD but your putting him at SG. GD was terrible and looked slow. Now in saying that unless there's some foul trouble I doubt WJ gets many mins at SG if at all but I think he's capable. Everyone knows I'm not a TB fan at all but at 6'10 with long arms he's good for 10 mins off the bench an maybe get a block and hit 1 open jumper. If he has to play a lot that will not good for us because he's a horrible rebounder at that size.
Some quality analysis in the OP.

Two points that I would differ a bit on is the depth and Jeffries ability to play guard.

People thought the depth would be good last season because they had more bodies with some talent to play at this level, but there is a lag in terms of their ability to actually contribute in a meaningful way.

It does look like we have more "depth" than last year, but last year ended up close to HCJC's first year, with barely more than the complete lack of depth he had that first year.

Forward - (not factoring in Jeffries until they actually have him committed) they have a two deep with Champ/Toney and Collier/Drumgoole. Yes, there is depth, but you noted GD has to make a lot of progress to even be a bit contibutor and while I like Colliers talent a good bit, he does not seem to be a guy who you can count on game in and game out to help you win games as a frosh.

- Guard, they have X, Horton, Femi (who I do feel pretty good can be a good contributor as a frosh backup) and that is it. GD might be able to play some seconds here or there at 2G, but as of today that is all they have.

Center - unless AKC makes massive improvement or Max is a major surprise, realistically they will be in a rotation similar to what they had HCJCs first two years, there is some hope Hugs can be better than Kene or Hamilton his frosh year, and there should be some actual depth with AKC.

Jeffries is not a guard. He is very adept and confident with the ball, but he is not a freak athlete who could play defense on a guard for any more than a switch off here or there.
 
IMO Jeffress handles the ball better than GD an looks to be more athletic then GD but your putting him at SG. GD was terrible and looked slow. Now in saying that unless there's some foul trouble I doubt WJ gets many mins at SG if at all but I think he's capable. Everyone knows I'm not a TB fan at all but at 6'10 with long arms he's good for 10 mins off the bench an maybe get a block and hit 1 open jumper. If he has to play a lot that will not good for us because he's a horrible rebounder at that size.

Yeah, I just threw out GD might get seconds at 2G, I am not counting on him doing much for them there. Just think it might be something they do with him when they have issues with fouls or maybe an injury, just to put him to use if he an hit some threes.

Neither are options for any meaningful time at guard.

Someone else has noted accurately, his use for this team will be based pretty much on his ability to hit threes.
 
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IMO Jeffress handles the ball better than GD an looks to be more athletic then GD but your putting him at SG. GD was terrible and looked slow. Now in saying that unless there's some foul trouble I doubt WJ gets many mins at SG if at all but I think he's capable. Everyone knows I'm not a TB fan at all but at 6'10 with long arms he's good for 10 mins off the bench an maybe get a block and hit 1 open jumper. If he has to play a lot that will not good for us because he's a horrible rebounder at that size.

Everything you said about Brown is so true. That is exactly why I'm on
here suggesting he maybe get some time at PF. Why?...first of all Toney
and Champ have Drumgoole and Collier as their backups, not good.
Secondly, he can hit that open jumper. Thirdly, at 6'10 he won't be
overpowered so frequently and might be more effective on the boards
as a second Big. He can also get minutes at Center where I'm hoping
Hugley beats him out. It also would give us a differeent look and maybe
cause the opposition some match up problems. Just my take on things.
 
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Some quality analysis in the OP.

Two points that I would differ a bit on is the depth and Jeffries ability to play guard.

People thought the depth would be good last season because they had more bodies with some talent to play at this level, but there is a lag in terms of their ability to actually contribute in a meaningful way.

It does look like we have more "depth" than last year, but last year ended up close to HCJC's first year, with barely more than the complete lack of depth he had that first year.

Forward - (not factoring in Jeffries until they actually have him committed) they have a two deep with Champ/Toney and Collier/Drumgoole. Yes, there is depth, but you noted GD has to make a lot of progress to even be a bit contibutor and while I like Colliers talent a good bit, he does not seem to be a guy who you can count on game in and game out to help you win games as a frosh.

- Guard, they have X, Horton, Femi (who I do feel pretty good can be a good contributor as a frosh backup) and that is it. GD might be able to play some seconds here or there at 2G, but as of today that is all they have.

Center - unless AKC makes massive improvement or Max is a major surprise, realistically they will be in a rotation similar to what they had HCJCs first two years, there is some hope Hugs can be better than Kene or Hamilton his frosh year, and there should be some actual depth with AKC.

Jeffries is not a guard. He is very adept and confident with the ball, but he is not a freak athlete who could play defense on a guard for any more than a switch off here or there.

Im not sure who was "high" on the team depth last year when we only had 9 players on the roster that really played not including the walkons. The team was rail thin before the season even started.

In terms of depth, the 2009 Pitt team had only 8 players over 100 in offensive rating. 3 players were rated 92 or worse in OTRG offense that year.

In 2011, Pitts deepest team ever, 11 players had an offensive team rating of over 100.

The 2008 Pitt team, a team that won the Big East Tournament Championship, had only 9 players over 100 in OTRG. The bottom 2 players were 92 or worse.

The 2014 Pitt team had 9 total players over Top 100 OTRG. And 100% nothing after that.

The point here is about 8 players are needed to have the ORTG offensive rating we need to get back to the NCAA Tournament. Players like Noah Collier and Max Amadasun only need to be serviceable at best with a rating of 80-95 which would be ok. They cannot be Gerald Drumgoole last year with a rating of 61 or we will continue to have significant problems on offense if they are going to play. Depth role players at the back end of the bench should never be counted on to take over a game. They are role players.

Jeffress can be the backup 2 on offense "if needed" in my opinion. He doesnt have to guard the 2 on defense. Toney will be taking on the teams best offensive player all season regardless of position unless it is a center. Jeffress can slide to cover a wing or where fit. Jeffress shooting ability is far improved from a year ago. We are only talking about a backup role here because Ithiel Horton is going to play major minutes next year and might lead the team in minutes. Jeff Capel spoke loud and clear about Horton many times already and Trey and Murphy both transferred because their playing time was going down next year.


For the poster that mentioned that I am over exuberant on freshmen players.

1) Let's remember that 5 of the 6 total freshmen players that Jeff Capel brought in provided adequate minutes as freshmen with solid OTRG ratings. Gerald Drumgoole was a bust his freshmen year and everyone got it wrong including myself, the scouts that run the recruiting services, and Jeff Capel who started Drumgoole at the start of the season. The other 5 players range from adequate to good as freshmen including Karim Coulibaly.

2) I would severely pump the breaks on "most" grad transfers or transfers in general. Most of these players are hyped far more than they actually are good. I never hyped Hamilton or Murphy although I thought Murphy may be better than expected after his Italy trip and at the start of the season. I never thought Murphy was some major impact player and at best only thought of him as a shooter. If other people did then that is on them. Here is the grad transfer list of 2019.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-basketball-transfer-rankings-2019-20-2020-21

Most of these players were severely over hyped. The so called "stud" transfers that went to North Carolina and other major schools were not so studly. This happens more time than not.

Ithiel Horton is different because of the information I originally provided.

I expect the 9 man rotation (as of today) to be this.

Toney
Champ
Horton
X
Hugley
Odukale
Brown
Coulibaly
Jeffress

That is 9. I think 8 of these players can push for the OTRG 100 rating. Players outside of these 9 will likely be role players or redshirted. Most of these players are versatile enough to slide into a different position. Toney will slide to the "4" for example before Noah Collier gets significant minutes at the 4.

Lastly, I am concluding that 2 of our freshmen will have a fairly significant impact, those being Odukale and Hugley. One was the National Prep player of the year runner up who is going to be a 20 year old freshmen and the other was the best player in the state of Ohio who had a statistical record breaking banner year. I think Jeffress will be good enough to be more than adequate even as a 17 year old backup role player.

For the person concerned, Noah Collier is very close to 6'9. He had a large growth spurt and there are plenty of pictures of him standing next to 7 foot plus players. Collier will get time in our 2-3 zone defense package which is where he is most comfortable on defense.
 
Im not sure who was "high" on the team depth last year when we only had 9 players on the roster that really played not including the walkons. The team was rail thin before the season even started.

In terms of depth, the 2009 Pitt team had only 8 players over 100 in offensive rating. 3 players were rated 92 or worse in OTRG offense that year.

In 2011, Pitts deepest team ever, 11 players had an offensive team rating of over 100.

The 2008 Pitt team, a team that won the Big East Tournament Championship, had only 9 players over 100 in OTRG. The bottom 2 players were 92 or worse.

The 2014 Pitt team had 9 total players over Top 100 OTRG. And 100% nothing after that.

The point here is about 8 players are needed to have the ORTG offensive rating we need to get back to the NCAA Tournament. Players like Noah Collier and Max Amadasun only need to be serviceable at best with a rating of 80-95 which would be ok. They cannot be Gerald Drumgoole last year with a rating of 61 or we will continue to have significant problems on offense if they are going to play. Depth role players at the back end of the bench should never be counted on to take over a game. They are role players.

Jeffress can be the backup 2 on offense "if needed" in my opinion. He doesnt have to guard the 2 on defense. Toney will be taking on the teams best offensive player all season regardless of position unless it is a center. Jeffress can slide to cover a wing or where fit. Jeffress shooting ability is far improved from a year ago. We are only talking about a backup role here because Ithiel Horton is going to play major minutes next year and might lead the team in minutes. Jeff Capel spoke loud and clear about Horton many times already and Trey and Murphy both transferred because their playing time was going down next year.


For the poster that mentioned that I am over exuberant on freshmen players.

1) Let's remember that 5 of the 6 total freshmen players that Jeff Capel brought in provided adequate minutes as freshmen with solid OTRG ratings. Gerald Drumgoole was a bust his freshmen year and everyone got it wrong including myself, the scouts that run the recruiting services, and Jeff Capel who started Drumgoole at the start of the season. The other 5 players range from adequate to good as freshmen including Karim Coulibaly.

2) I would severely pump the breaks on "most" grad transfers or transfers in general. Most of these players are hyped far more than they actually are good. I never hyped Hamilton or Murphy although I thought Murphy may be better than expected after his Italy trip and at the start of the season. I never thought Murphy was some major impact player and at best only thought of him as a shooter. If other people did then that is on them. Here is the grad transfer list of 2019.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-basketball-transfer-rankings-2019-20-2020-21

Most of these players were severely over hyped. The so called "stud" transfers that went to North Carolina and other major schools were not so studly. This happens more time than not.

Ithiel Horton is different because of the information I originally provided.

I expect the 9 man rotation (as of today) to be this.

Toney
Champ
Horton
X
Hugley
Odukale
Brown
Coulibaly
Jeffress

That is 9. I think 8 of these players can push for the OTRG 100 rating. Players outside of these 9 will likely be role players or redshirted. Most of these players are versatile enough to slide into a different position. Toney will slide to the "4" for example before Noah Collier gets significant minutes at the 4.

Lastly, I am concluding that 2 of our freshmen will have a fairly significant impact, those being Odukale and Hugley. One was the National Prep player of the year runner up who is going to be a 20 year old freshmen and the other was the best player in the state of Ohio who had a statistical record breaking banner year. I think Jeffress will be good enough to be more than adequate even as a 17 year old backup role player.

For the person concerned, Noah Collier is very close to 6'9. He had a large growth spurt and there are plenty of pictures of him standing next to 7 foot plus players. Collier will get time in our 2-3 zone defense package which is where he is most comfortable on defense.

You still talk of Jeffress as a done deal?

Hope you know more than the rest of us.
 
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For the poster that mentioned that I am over exuberant on freshmen players.

Yup, I'll fess up...I'm that poster. I have no problem wth your info, in
fact I appreciate the in depth research that you apparently do. It
helps keep us informed and in touch with things the average poster
doesn't know or isn't aware.
With that said.....you are "over exuberant" on recruits, but that's ok,
I appreciate the info.
 
Ithiel Horton


As a true freshmen Ithiel Horton made 81 three pointers and had an offensive rating of 108 with a 41% 3 point shooting percentage. Im going to put into perspective how rare that is as a freshman to accomplish those three numbers hand in hand.

Of all 353 college teams combined, 5 Total players in all of Division 1 basketball made 81 or more 3 point shots as a true freshmen this year. Only 2 of those 5 players had an offensive rating better than 108 with a 40%+ 3 point shooting percentage in all of college basketball. Of those 2 freshmen that did what Horton did as a freshmen, one already declared for the NBA draft. This is rare company.


Horton is going to start and is going to open up our entire offense. This is a player that can make a lot of 3’s and hit very deep 3’s. There isn’t any hope here as he has proven how good of a shooter he is already. This was a player that was scoring over 20 points per game with an offensive rating over 150 in the final games of his freshmen season. And he redshirted this year.


When Wilson-Frame was a Panther he helped open up our offense with his 3 point shooting. This severely helped X and Trey as freshmen, since both had an offensive rating of 99 with solid freshmen seasons. Without Frame’s 3 point shooting and playing against constant sagging zone defenses, X’s offensive rating fell to 93 and Mcgowens fell to a 91 this year.


Murphy’s shooting ability was mostly all talk without walk. Ryan Murphy finished the season with 42 made 3 balls at 33% shooting, which are dismal numbers for a 3 point only specialist. As for Mcgowens, he finished the season 3rd worst on the team in offensive rating and with a team worst -61 in plus minus for the season. Mcgowens regressed more than anyone the final 10 games.


To be an NCAA team , 8 players need to be very close to or above 100 in offensive rating in ORTG. The magic number is about 8. This is where we finished this year.

Toney-109

Horton-108 (year prior)

Champagnie-108

Brown-104

X-93

Coulibaly-89

Drumgoole-61


This obviously is not good enough.


Next year, Im very confident with Toney, Champagnie, and Horton being around 110 or better. I think its possible any of the 3 could challenge for 120. I think with Horton, it is fairly likely X gets to 100 or better as X was almost at 100 as a freshmen.


X really needs to clean up his shooting and his turnovers. In X’s final 3 games he had 17 turnovers this year. He still isn’t getting it with respect to protecting the basketball and not turning it over. As an upperclassman he needs to step up next year.


I think Coulibaly is going to see a jump next year and will push for a 100 rating. I have much less confidence in Drumgoole at this point even with his foot injury this year. His play and shooting leave a lot to be desired. Drumgoole had one of the lowest rock bottom offensive ratings of any new freshmen that came into this program in the last 20 years and that includes all the walkon players. Drumgoole was far and away that bad.


I think this is our opening day starting 5.

Pg-X-Junior

Sg-Horton- RS Soph.

Sf-Toney-Junior

Pf-Champagnie-Soph

C-Hugley-Freshman


Other notes:

I expect a faster tempo next year and a much more aggressive defense. I expect to see more press, traps and double teams. We had success with it this year. I think we will have much more success with it next year with more players available and better talented athletes.


I think Femi Odukale is ready and significantly underrated. I think he contributes immediately. And I think Jeff Capel is very high on his ability as Jeff Capel pressed this kid hard to commit over a lot of other potential targets. Odukale will be 20 years old next winter. He was the catalyst off the full court press for Springfield this year and pushing the ball in transition. With his length on the floor and ability on defense with Toney, we are going to force quite a bit of turnovers and get our transition game on offense going again.


Odukale broke the all time school record with assists this year at Springfield against high level competition. He registered more assists this year as a prep senior (9 assists per game) than any other player to come into this program in the last 20 years. I would also reiterate that in the last 2 recruiting classes, our worst rated recruit by the recruiting services (X and Champ) was our best freshmen performer. Don’t be surprised if Odukale keeps that trend intact. He has a relentless work ethic with a NY junkyard dog meanness and toughness on the floor.


I think Collier and Amadasun will be minimal spare backups as freshmen at this point.


Will Jeffress is the wildcard player. And I say that because of his age. Jeffress has made pretty significant strides with his shooting and his handle this year. He has a lot more guard in him than what is getting mentioned and I think he can get some time as a 2 this year even though he is a projected wing. I think Jeffress has the height, athleticism, and skills to be a multi-utility player that can swing between multiple positions as a freshman. With Jeffress being an excellent student with a high IQ and thirst for knowledge, he should be able to adapt much faster to this type of role. I will be surprised if he redshirted. I think other players may be redshirted before him.


The ACC will be down again next year. I made this claim repeatedly last summer before ACC play started this year. Im not sure yet how down the ACC will be as the rosters aren’t finalized, but expect a fairly weak ACC again.


The staff obvious wants Trey Murphy. With a 115-offensive rating through 2 seasons, 140 made three balls, and a combined 3 point shooting percentage of 38%, he helps to address our shooting weakness from 3. He has also shown the ability to hit the 3 off the bounce as well as the catch, making him more valuable.


Our rebounding next year will be better. Femi Odukale is a monstrous upgrade rebounding over Murphy or Mcgowens and I want to highlight the word Monstrous. And I think Hugley is going to be a significant upgrade rebounding in the paint.


Our team passing next year will be much better. I have raved about the passing ability of Hugley and Odukale. From day 1, I think John Hugley establishes himself as one of the top passing bigs in the ACC. In 3 full seasons Terrell Brown has 28 total assists. Hugley should challenge to beat that total in half a season. Hamilton and Brown for the entire season combined last year had 10 total assists. Hugley should challenge to beat that in his first 5 games.


The team balance scoring next year should be much better. We should get legit scoring punch from at least 4 positions and the depth should be much better. With Horton’s shooting ability, the newcomers passing ability, and with a better transition game, our offense should make a significant jump next year with improvement over this year. I think Odukale and Hugley will both challenge for a 100+ level offensive rating as freshmen.


Lastly, I am happy the New York toughness is coming back to this program. This program was built on talent and toughness from New York. Players like Krauser, Fields, Taft, Ramon, Benjamin, Page, Woodall, etc.. Champagnie is from Brooklyn NY and so is his future teammate, Odukale.


Femi Odukale was recently voted the National Prep Player of the Year runner up this year. Sam Young was National prep player of the year at Hargrave Miltary before he was an All American at Pitt.

Everyone should be very excited with the talent coming into this program next season.... This is an outstanding recruiting class.

Is Horton any good at defense?
 
Ithiel Horton


As a true freshmen Ithiel Horton made 81 three pointers and had an offensive rating of 108 with a 41% 3 point shooting percentage. Im going to put into perspective how rare that is as a freshman to accomplish those three numbers hand in hand.

Of all 353 college teams combined, 5 Total players in all of Division 1 basketball made 81 or more 3 point shots as a true freshmen this year. Only 2 of those 5 players had an offensive rating better than 108 with a 40%+ 3 point shooting percentage in all of college basketball. Of those 2 freshmen that did what Horton did as a freshmen, one already declared for the NBA draft. This is rare company.


Horton is going to start and is going to open up our entire offense. This is a player that can make a lot of 3’s and hit very deep 3’s. There isn’t any hope here as he has proven how good of a shooter he is already. This was a player that was scoring over 20 points per game with an offensive rating over 150 in the final games of his freshmen season. And he redshirted this year.


When Wilson-Frame was a Panther he helped open up our offense with his 3 point shooting. This severely helped X and Trey as freshmen, since both had an offensive rating of 99 with solid freshmen seasons. Without Frame’s 3 point shooting and playing against constant sagging zone defenses, X’s offensive rating fell to 93 and Mcgowens fell to a 91 this year.


Murphy’s shooting ability was mostly all talk without walk. Ryan Murphy finished the season with 42 made 3 balls at 33% shooting, which are dismal numbers for a 3 point only specialist. As for Mcgowens, he finished the season 3rd worst on the team in offensive rating and with a team worst -61 in plus minus for the season. Mcgowens regressed more than anyone the final 10 games.


To be an NCAA team , 8 players need to be very close to or above 100 in offensive rating in ORTG. The magic number is about 8. This is where we finished this year.

Toney-109

Horton-108 (year prior)

Champagnie-108

Brown-104

X-93

Coulibaly-89

Drumgoole-61


This obviously is not good enough.


Next year, Im very confident with Toney, Champagnie, and Horton being around 110 or better. I think its possible any of the 3 could challenge for 120. I think with Horton, it is fairly likely X gets to 100 or better as X was almost at 100 as a freshmen.


X really needs to clean up his shooting and his turnovers. In X’s final 3 games he had 17 turnovers this year. He still isn’t getting it with respect to protecting the basketball and not turning it over. As an upperclassman he needs to step up next year.


I think Coulibaly is going to see a jump next year and will push for a 100 rating. I have much less confidence in Drumgoole at this point even with his foot injury this year. His play and shooting leave a lot to be desired. Drumgoole had one of the lowest rock bottom offensive ratings of any new freshmen that came into this program in the last 20 years and that includes all the walkon players. Drumgoole was far and away that bad.


I think this is our opening day starting 5.

Pg-X-Junior

Sg-Horton- RS Soph.

Sf-Toney-Junior

Pf-Champagnie-Soph

C-Hugley-Freshman


Other notes:

I expect a faster tempo next year and a much more aggressive defense. I expect to see more press, traps and double teams. We had success with it this year. I think we will have much more success with it next year with more players available and better talented athletes.


I think Femi Odukale is ready and significantly underrated. I think he contributes immediately. And I think Jeff Capel is very high on his ability as Jeff Capel pressed this kid hard to commit over a lot of other potential targets. Odukale will be 20 years old next winter. He was the catalyst off the full court press for Springfield this year and pushing the ball in transition. With his length on the floor and ability on defense with Toney, we are going to force quite a bit of turnovers and get our transition game on offense going again.


Odukale broke the all time school record with assists this year at Springfield against high level competition. He registered more assists this year as a prep senior (9 assists per game) than any other player to come into this program in the last 20 years. I would also reiterate that in the last 2 recruiting classes, our worst rated recruit by the recruiting services (X and Champ) was our best freshmen performer. Don’t be surprised if Odukale keeps that trend intact. He has a relentless work ethic with a NY junkyard dog meanness and toughness on the floor.


I think Collier and Amadasun will be minimal spare backups as freshmen at this point.


Will Jeffress is the wildcard player. And I say that because of his age. Jeffress has made pretty significant strides with his shooting and his handle this year. He has a lot more guard in him than what is getting mentioned and I think he can get some time as a 2 this year even though he is a projected wing. I think Jeffress has the height, athleticism, and skills to be a multi-utility player that can swing between multiple positions as a freshman. With Jeffress being an excellent student with a high IQ and thirst for knowledge, he should be able to adapt much faster to this type of role. I will be surprised if he redshirted. I think other players may be redshirted before him.


The ACC will be down again next year. I made this claim repeatedly last summer before ACC play started this year. Im not sure yet how down the ACC will be as the rosters aren’t finalized, but expect a fairly weak ACC again.


The staff obvious wants Trey Murphy. With a 115-offensive rating through 2 seasons, 140 made three balls, and a combined 3 point shooting percentage of 38%, he helps to address our shooting weakness from 3. He has also shown the ability to hit the 3 off the bounce as well as the catch, making him more valuable.


Our rebounding next year will be better. Femi Odukale is a monstrous upgrade rebounding over Murphy or Mcgowens and I want to highlight the word Monstrous. And I think Hugley is going to be a significant upgrade rebounding in the paint.


Our team passing next year will be much better. I have raved about the passing ability of Hugley and Odukale. From day 1, I think John Hugley establishes himself as one of the top passing bigs in the ACC. In 3 full seasons Terrell Brown has 28 total assists. Hugley should challenge to beat that total in half a season. Hamilton and Brown for the entire season combined last year had 10 total assists. Hugley should challenge to beat that in his first 5 games.


The team balance scoring next year should be much better. We should get legit scoring punch from at least 4 positions and the depth should be much better. With Horton’s shooting ability, the newcomers passing ability, and with a better transition game, our offense should make a significant jump next year with improvement over this year. I think Odukale and Hugley will both challenge for a 100+ level offensive rating as freshmen.


Lastly, I am happy the New York toughness is coming back to this program. This program was built on talent and toughness from New York. Players like Krauser, Fields, Taft, Ramon, Benjamin, Page, Woodall, etc.. Champagnie is from Brooklyn NY and so is his future teammate, Odukale.


Femi Odukale was recently voted the National Prep Player of the Year runner up this year. Sam Young was National prep player of the year at Hargrave Miltary before he was an All American at Pitt.

Everyone should be very excited with the talent coming into this program next season.... This is an outstanding recruiting class.
Thanks very much for the insight. I especially liked the point about Jeffress' improved handle. I saw his last game before the shutdown. He didn't score a whole lot but he played a lot out front and had York's best defenders playing literally up in his chest all night and. He consistently got the ball to open teammates and I can remember few if any turnovers.

People keep harping about bringing in another guard but I am very excited about Ethiel and Femi.
 
People keep harping about bringing in another guard but I am very excited about Ethiel and Femi.

I also feel good about them. The problem is three guards is not enough.
Just take a look at last year when the team went into a tailspin. We had
three guards, X, Trey, and Murphy. Murphy got hurt and we had to go
to an ineffective Drumgoole and a walk on. X and Trey got worn down.
Ya gotta have at least four guards. Not just Pitt, but ALL teams.
 
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Is Horton any good at defense?


These 2 games sum up Horton to a T as these are the conference tournament finals games of his freshmen season where he was unconscious shooting the basketball. You can see Horton makes very deep 3's off the catch and shoot, in transition, and off the bounce and forces the defense to stretch out and cover him. He makes 3's far beyond the 3 point line with ease.


You can see he also needs work on defense at this stage of his career when he was a freshmen. He needs to do a better job staying in front of his man and getting through screens along with closing out on shooters. We are talking about a true freshmen here however. And the kid from Hofstra in one of these videos was a senior who was drafted in the 2nd round of the NBA draft after averaging 27 points per game his final year in college.

It should be stated that Horton is pretty darn athletic. He has far more athletic ability than someone like Ashton Gibbs or Tra Woodall. So the potential is easily there for him to be quite good on defense, especially for a redshirt year to learn, for him to have improved substantially on the defensive end.




 
Next year, Im very confident with Toney, Champagnie, and Horton being around 110 or better. I think its possible any of the 3 could challenge for 120.


The total number of D1 players last season that had a 120 offensive rating who used at least 28% of their team's possessions when they were in the game, in other words guys who were major contributors like Toney, Champagnie and Horton will be as opposed to just role players, was one. Payton Pritchard of Oregon, at 120.6. There was only one other player in the whole country, Carlik Jones of Radford, who was higher than 117.1. Luke Garza of Iowa was 4th in the country at 117.0. Vernon Carey of Duke was 5th at 116.6.

In other words, if any of those guys actually challenge 120 they will basically be first team All Americans. Seems unlikely.
 
i think Gerald as well will not play any minutes, i would think he will transfer next year. I do not see any quickness in him and his shot to me looks horrid. He also seems to lack the quickness to play and d. and im surprised that his intensity didn't seem to be there.
 
Those films are pretty revealing. Horton looks exactly like what
we need. He's athletic, and he can shoot...REALLY shoot. You're
probably right about his D, but that's one thing I'm sure Capel can fix.

Athletically, Horton's game resembles Jarrett Lockhart but Horton is a better shooter. I wouldn't call him a great athlete but he was good enough to play 1 quite a bit as a freshman (basically a walk it up type of player at the 1).

Horton also has a very quick and compact shot so he needs very little space to get his shot off.

Compared to Murphy... besides small and unathletic, Murphy couldn't get his shot off in tight spots.
 
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Too many people writing off Drumgoole. He’s going to be a contributor.


he seems very slow footed, if he is going to contribute i think he is going to have to use his strength which its physicality and bully people around and grab some boards become jaron brown type but can shoot better
 
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Yeah, I just threw out GD might get seconds at 2G, I am not counting on him doing much for them there. Just think it might be something they do with him when they have issues with fouls or maybe an injury, just to put him to use if he an hit some threes.

Neither are options for any meaningful time at guard.

Someone else has noted accurately, his use for this team will be based pretty much on his ability to hit threes.
Toney will get minutes at the 2 before GD in my opinion in games and situations that really matter.
 
Good thread here and really like reading everyone's thoughts.
Just want sports back in our lives. Really hoping for some positive recruiting news in the near future.
 
These 2 games sum up Horton to a T as these are the conference tournament finals games of his freshmen season where he was unconscious shooting the basketball. You can see Horton makes very deep 3's off the catch and shoot, in transition, and off the bounce and forces the defense to stretch out and cover him. He makes 3's far beyond the 3 point line with ease.


You can see he also needs work on defense at this stage of his career when he was a freshmen. He needs to do a better job staying in front of his man and getting through screens along with closing out on shooters. We are talking about a true freshmen here however. And the kid from Hofstra in one of these videos was a senior who was drafted in the 2nd round of the NBA draft after averaging 27 points per game his final year in college.

It should be stated that Horton is pretty darn athletic. He has far more athletic ability than someone like Ashton Gibbs or Tra Woodall. So the potential is easily there for him to be quite good on defense, especially for a redshirt year to learn, for him to have improved substantially on the defensive end.




Pearce from William and Mary looked great. Then I looked him up and he is a grad transfer who just committed to UNC:
 
i think Gerald as well will not play any minutes, i would think he will transfer next year. I do not see any quickness in him and his shot to me looks horrid. He also seems to lack the quickness to play and d. and im surprised that his intensity didn't seem to be there.
For the hundredth time, wait til a freshman becomes at the very least a sophomore before transferring him out of the program.
 
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I know very well he has been projected heavily to becoming a Pitt commit. However, I am a subscriber to the “its not over until the fat lady sings” and to “not counting your chickens before they are hatched” school of thinking.
Agree. Although I have been very confident that he will be a Panther I have been around long enough to know anything could happen.
 
he seems very slow footed, if he is going to contribute i think he is going to have to use his strength which its physicality and bully people around and grab some boards become jaron brown type but can shoot better
Hopefully he's working his ass off to get himself into better shape. He can't work out with the team or S&C coaches now, so hopefully he has access to adequate equipment.
 
In regards to GD , no one on this board knows how much his injury affected his play and conditioning except to say that it obviously did . When your bodies not right it affects everything you do . However after saying that he’s got an uphill battle to find PT even if he’s totally 100% healthy , especially if the Panthers land Jeffress . If they get another quality guard or a guy like Murphy then his path to PT will be a very unlikely
one .

If those two guys sign I wouldn’t be surprised if GD reconsiders his choice to stay at Pitt . In today’s game buried on the depth chart equals transfers .
 
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In regards to DG , no one on this board knows how much his injury affected his play and conditioning except to say that it obviously did . When your bodies not right it affects everything you do . However after saying that he’s got an uphill battle to find PT even if he’s totally 100% healthy , especially if the Panthers land Jeffress . If they get another quality guard or a guy like Murphy then his path to PT will be a very unlikely
one .

If those two guys sign I wouldn’t be surprised if DG reconsiders his choice to stay at Pitt . In today’s game buried on the depth chart equals transfers .

You mean Gerald Drumgoole (GD) of course--not Drumgoole, Gerald (DG) I presume.;);):)
 
For the hundredth time, wait til a freshman becomes at the very least a sophomore before transferring him out of the program.


not saying he is going to transfer im saying in my view if he dont make some drastic improvements he will no be getting minutes and in todays world that means a transfer. he needs to work --alot, he has the body but needs to get even stronger, quickness is never going to be his thing he needs to out muscle the other guards and better be able to hit his threes alot better
 
For the hundredth time, wait til a freshman becomes at the very least a sophomore before transferring him out of the program.
I agree. I dont know how anyone could of formed an opinion of Drumgoole. Comes in for 2 minutes here 3 1/2 minutes there with no role and playing through an injury. I dont have any kind of feel for what kind of player he can be but I guess some are done with him.
 
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