** If you are a stat geek, perhaps something you find fun on the ESPN Gamecast is the “Win Probability” number that is constantly updated during the course of the game.
** We started this game at an 88% win probability. Mostly that number is a pretty sad indictment of the hapless Cards considering they are playing at home.
** And of course our Panthers didn’t come out like gangbusters, and their win probability dropped to 75% when the Cards snagged their biggest lead of the game at 14-10. Five Panther three pointers later, that same win probability was back up over 90%.
** The worst it dipped for the remainder of the game was 88%, and it remained over 98% for the last nine minutes.
** That’s a far too long a way of saying this game was never in doubt.
** As noted, it wasn’t really in doubt because Louisville is beyond terrible. But interestingly, there is some talent on this Cards squad, or at least some fairly highly ranked talent. Experienced for sure, but there are a handful of players who some of the best programs wanted.
** I suspect the Cards will beat a team or two in the ACC this year in the Yum Center. All we know now 100% is that it won’t be us. Still, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tiny bit concerned going into the game that it could be.
** Maybe at some point during this season we will all become completely comfortable with the notion that this is a very solid basketball team truly headed for the Tournament. But unfortunately, the specter of four previous slides still lingers off in the distance.
** After the tonight, it’s a little further away still.
** It’s further away because the Panthers have six legit guns who can garner double digits on any given night. Over the last nine games, Burton has led the Panthers in scoring three times, Nike twice, and Blake, Fede, Greg and Nelly once. All six have had a 20 point outing during that stretch.
** Toss in increasing contributions for GDiaz and Nate and we are becoming harder and harder to guard.
** So hard in fact that on a night when it took a better part of the game for Nelly or Blake to hit a shot, it really didn’t matter.
** In 16 halves of the Panthers 8 ACC games, we’ve scored at least 33 points in all except two of them -- the first half against Virginia (followed by a 45 point 2nd half) and the second half against Duke. That's some very consistent scoring.
** Pomeroy now ranks our offense at #42, but this still includes the three struggles to start the year.
** Perhaps another idea we Panther fans should be comfortable with is this team is never going to be afraid to shoot the ball. Sure, some of those will look like bad or untimely shots to us. But I suspect Capel and his staff never want the guys to question their shots.
** Maybe even during those early darker days, the staff never wanted the guys to question their shots. It sure looks like it’s paying off now.
** This doesn’t mean this team doesn’t have room to grow, most notably on the defensive glass. The Cards got about 8 easy points that way today, and without those, our win probability today may not have ever dropped below it’s starting point.
** So now we come home for three, and our win probability for each is over 60%. Get at least two of them and perhaps even the most skeptical fan will completely put to rest that a big slide could still make a mark. Maybe then the only statistic we all will be focused upon is the number of our seed.
** I’ll leave by putting in a plug for one last number. Let’s see if we if we can get a realistic five figure attendance to support on Panthers in person on Saturday. These guys are fun and they are good. They’ve come a long way since early in the season, and the Coaching staff and program has come an amazingly long way since they ended last year with a five game slide.
** And you don’t have to be a stat to geek to enjoy them!