OT:Buccos

[mvk112]

Lets look at Scherzer Cueto and Lester. Yeah those signings look like world beaters now but in two years they will be a shell of their former selves

So they are likely underpaid now and overpaid later. The sport, all teams including the team on the North Shore, is awash in cash. This constant worrying about payroll 3 to 6 years in the future at the expense of this season is ridiculous and holding the team back from truly competing for a championship.

When you have guys like Cutch, Marte, and Kang in their primes, you don't waste it with stuff like Niese, Locke, and Nicasio in the rotation because of what payroll might be five years from now.

 

[PA_Panther]

When you don't worry about payroll 3-6 years down the line you look like the Reds as I mentioned before who went all in the year they lost to the Pirates in the wildcard and have been crappy since. They are in deep crap for the next 5+ years. Would you rather be the Pirates or Reds right now?

The brewers went all in a few years back trading for CC unloaded a bunch of young talent and haven't sniffed the playoffs. The A's a few years back went all in on Jeff Sarmajiada and guess what the Cubs are currently laughing at that deal.

 

[mvk112]

I think they do everything they can to maximize their wins over a multiple year horizon. I think they refuse to go "all-in" and cripple themselves going forward. The only reason Locke and Nicasio are in the rotation is because they will be easy to move/cut/trade at the drop of a hat, with absolutely no impact on future payroll.

I don't get the hatred directed at Niese. Look at his career track record compared to guys like JA Happ and Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija -- the type of pitcher the Pirates would be able to afford in a pinch.

The Pirates are not one of the large market teams who can pay a guy for 5 years, while knowing that they'll only get 2 years of production out of him and will just need to eat the final 3 years. That's what happened to the Twins, Brewers, and Reds. They spent too much and wound up with a lot of dead money that crippled flexibility.

LOL you are really trying to sell a supposed contender using Locke and Nicasio for half a season because they are easy to get rid of as a positive thing?

You're a fan of the front office, not the team.

Jon Niese's career isn't really any different from Jeff Locke's. Slightly better WHIP and ERA+. It was an awful trade, even if you felt like they had to trade Walker for some foolish reason.

 

[mvk112]

When you don't worry about payroll 3-6 years down the line you look like the Reds as I mentioned before who went all in the year they lost to the Pirates in the wildcard and have been crappy since. They are in deep crap for the next 5+ years. Would you rather be the Pirates or Reds right now?

The brewers went all in a few years back trading for CC unloaded a bunch of young talent and haven't sniffed the playoffs. The A's a few years back went all in on Jeff Sarmajiada and guess what the Cubs are currently laughing at that deal.

The Royals went all in for Cueto, they won the World Series. I'm sure you'd rather be the Pirates, though.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

LOL you are really trying to sell a supposed contender using Locke and Nicasio for half a season because they are easy to get rid of as a positive thing?

You're a fan of the front office, not the team.

Jon Niese's career isn't really any different from Jeff Locke's. Slightly better WHIP and ERA+. It was an awful trade, even if you felt like they had to trade Walker for some foolish reason.

I'm selling Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow compared to Mike Leake or JA Happ in the rotation as a good thing.

They were 7 games above .500 as of like a week ago with that staff you hate so much, with Taillon on the way and Glasnow not far behind.

They could have made huge moves in the offseason, they still aren't going to overcome Liriano and Watson imploding, Cole and Cervelli getting hurt, and Cutch having his thumb hold him back.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

The Royals went all in for Cueto, they won the World Series. I'm sure you'd rather be the Pirates, though.

Cueto was horrible for them, people legitimately thought his arm was totally shot.

 

[mvk112]

I'm selling Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow compared to Mike Leake or JA Happ in the rotation as a good thing.

They were 7 games above .500 as of like a week ago with that staff you hate so much, with Taillon on the way and Glasnow not far behind.

They could have made huge moves in the offseason, they still aren't going to overcome Liriano imploding, Cole and Cervelli getting hurt, and Cutch having his thumb hold him back.

They could've called Taillon and Glasnow up late April but they're petrified of paying them market rate seven years from now.

There was room in the rotation for Glasnow, Taillon, and a legitimate SP. Total combined starts for Taillon, Glasnow, and a legitimate SP? 1.

 

[PA_Panther]

The Royals went all in for Cueto, they won the World Series. I'm sure you'd rather be the Pirates, though.

He had an ERA of 4.76 with them and then in the post season gave up 15 Earned Runs over 25 Innings. Did he really put them over the hump to win the world series?

 

[mvk112]

Cueto was horrible for them, people legitimately thought his arm was totally shot.

Yeah, that complete game 2 hitter in the World Series was terrible.

 

[mvk112]

He had an ERA of 4.76 with them and then in the post season gave up 15 Earned Runs over 25 Innings. Did he really put them over the hump to win the world series?

He had one bad start in the postseason (vs Toronto) and threw a gem in the World Series.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

They could've called Taillon and Glasnow up late April but they're petrified of paying them market rate seven years from now.

There was room in the rotation for Glasnow, Taillon, and a legitimate SP. Total combined starts for Taillon, Glasnow, and a legitimate SP? 1.

I would have bought that Taillon could have come up in April if it weren't for him being 2 years removed from baseball. I don't think him coming up early and being on an innings limit would have been constructive.

Strongly disagree on Glasnow. Needs to learn to throw a changeup and shouldn't be doing that in MLB.

Niese is a legitimate pitcher if you're comparing him to somebody like Leake, Samardzija, Happ, etc.. He has a 3.95 career ERA, a 3.93 FIP, and a 3.77 xFIP for his career. That's a track record equal to or better than all of those guys.

 

[mvk112]

ALDS game 5 - 8ip, 2h, 2r, 0bb, 8k
WS game 2 - 9ip, 2h, 1r, 3bb, 4K

Horrible, who needs him?

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Yeah, that complete game 2 hitter in the World Series was terrible.

LOL. Yeah, that was totally Cueto's excellence and had nothing to do with tremendous batted ball luck and Kansas City having one of the best defensive teams baseball has seen. Only Johnny Cueto could have done that, because it was all under his influence. He was terrible for months but was able to magically become not terrible through sheer will and perseverance. That wasn't randomness at all.

 

[mvk112]

I would have bought that Taillon could have come up in April if it weren't for him being 2 years removed from baseball. I don't think him coming up early and being on an innings limit would have been constructive.

Strongly disagree on Glasnow. Needs to learn to throw a changeup and shouldn't be doing that in MLB.

Niese is a legitimate pitcher if you're comparing him to somebody like Leake, Samardzija, Happ, etc.. He has a 3.95 career ERA, a 3.93 FIP, and a 3.77 xFIP for his career. That's a track record equal to or better than all of those guys.

Niese played in one of best pitchers parks in baseball, those stats don't tell the story. He's also been awful the past year and a half.

 

[mvk112]

LOL. Yeah, that was totally Cueto's excellence and had nothing to do with tremendous batted ball luck and Kansas City having one of the best defensive teams baseball has seen. Only Johnny Cueto could have done that, because it was all under his influence. He was terrible for months but was able to magically become not terrible through sheer will and perseverance. That wasn't randomness at all.

Yeah, you'll say anything to defend a front office who hasn't won anything yet. Not a championship, not a playoff series, not a division.

Let's go Neal! Let's go Neal! Let's go Neal!

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Niese played in one of best pitchers parks in baseball, those stats don't tell the story. He's also been awful the past year and a half.

His xFIP normalizes for the pitcher's park in terms of home runs. Ballparks don't impact BB's and K's, so your argument in general is incredibly facile. Samardzija was terrible all of last year. Leake struggled mightily last year. Happ is Happ. I'd rather be able to cut Niese after 1-year than be stuck with mediocrity for several years.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Yeah, you'll say anything to defend a front office who hasn't won anything yet. Not a championship, not a playoff series, not a division.

Let's go Neal! Let's go Neal! Let's go Neal!

I mean, baseball playoffs are so predictable I can think of no better way to rationally and intelligently evaluate a team/franchise. It's not a child's mentality at all.

 

[Delpanther]

Why?

You're so insistent that the playoffs are purely merit based, so wouldn't it make sense to maximize the talent level of your team at year-end? Sacrificing some wins in the first half in order to have more success in the 2nd half is the natural strategy, right?

If you win 90 games instead of 100 because you chose to work in talented youngsters, you still go to the playoffs. Except you're going into the playoffs with a better, more talented team.

I realize this requires a bit of intelligence and critical thinking but I'm hopeful that I've dumbed it down enough for you.

How do you know 90 wins or any threshold will get you to the playoffs when the year begin? You don't so that if you're truly interested in winning a championship in a given year you play your best personnel from day one. Once again your logic is flawed.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

How do you know 90 wins or any threshold will get you to the playoffs when the year begin? You don't so that if you're truly interested in winning a championship in a given year you play your best personnel from day one. Once again your logic is flawed.

LOL.

Yes, you're the one who doesn't want to maximize his team's talent level but I'm the one with faulty logic.

 

[Delpanther]

Pretty sure the closest Del has ever come to throwing his hat in that ring was to bitch about letting Marlon Byrd walk so they could make room for Polanco.

Polanco should have been in the minors another year. He could have learned to fiield and run the bases before coming to the majors and losing games because of his lack of experience.

 

[Delpanther]

LOL.

Yes, you're the one who doesn't want to maximize his team's talent level but I'm the one with faulty logic.

You maximize it at the beginning of the year and keep reassessing as the year goes on- I realize that's too complicated concept for you to comprehend...Moneybalz.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

You maximize it at the beginning of the year and keep reassessing as the year goes on- I realize that's too complicated concept for you to comprehend...Moneybalz.

Signing JA Happ or Mike Leake isn't maximizing talent. It's tying up a roster spot and a bunch of money on a career 5th starter. They're the type of guy you're trying to replace with Glasnow and Taillon -- not the guys you're trying to keep around for several years.

 

[mvk112]

His xFIP normalizes for the pitcher's park in terms of home runs. Ballparks don't impact BB's and K's, so your argument in general is incredibly facile. Samardzija was terrible all of last year. Leake struggled mightily last year. Happ is Happ. I'd rather be able to cut Niese after 1-year than be stuck with mediocrity for several years.

Ballparks affect stats more than just HR. Niese is a bad SP, amongst the worst quailed SP in terms of ERA+, WHIP, and K/9 over the last few years.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Polanco should have been in the minors another year. He could have learned to fiield and run the bases before coming to the majors and losing games because of his lack of experience.

Yeah, dominating AAA and never having to be challenged or forced to adjust would've been really good for his development. Can't believe the Pirates didn't want to keep around a borderline replacement level player in favor of that.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Ballparks affect stats more than just HR. Niese is a bad SP, amongst the worst quailed SP in terms of ERA+, WHIP, and K/9 over the last few years.

Those stats don't matter in FIP and xFIP. FIP and xFIP acknowledges that ballparks influence a ton of things that are out of the pitcher's control -- so it only cares about HR's, K's, and BB's. For xFIP, it normalizes all HR/FB rates to 10%, in acknowledgment of some ballparks stifling home runs and some ballparks inflating home runs. Hits don't matter, earned runs don't matter, ground ball rate or fly ball rate don't matter. None of it.

 

[Delpanther]

I'm selling Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow compared to Mike Leake or JA Happ in the rotation as a good thing.

They were 7 games above .500 as of like a week ago with that staff you hate so much, with Taillon on the way and Glasnow not far behind.

They could have made huge moves in the offseason, they still aren't going to overcome Liriano and Watson imploding, Cole and Cervelli getting hurt, and Cutch having his thumb hold him back.

Taillon , Glasnow may not turn out to be squat...you keep hanging your hat on pitching prospects... Very, very speculative, Moneybalz.

 

[mvk112]

I mean, baseball playoffs are so predictable I can think of no better way to rationally and intelligently evaluate a team/franchise. It's not a child's mentality at all.

The calling card of a front office fan is downplaying any team's success in the playoffs, and calling the thing a crapshoot.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

The calling card of a front office fan is downplaying any team's success in the playoffs, and calling the thing a crapshoot.

Or, you know, a fan who reads.

 

[Delpanther]

This is a fair question, and one I don't understand.

The Steelers are inflexible and it's badly hurt them the last 5-7 years.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Taillon , Glasnow may not turn out to be squat...you keep hanging your hat on pitching prospects... Very, very speculative, Moneybalz.

They may not turn out to be anything, sure.

But, considering pretty much all free agent pitching contracts have turned out to be disasters, there's a good chance of a free agent not being squat either.

The whole thing is speculative, especially with pitchers.

 

[Delpanther]

They may not turn out to be anything, sure.

But, considering pretty much all free agent pitching contracts have turned out to be disasters, there's a good chance of a free agent not being squat either.

The whole thing is speculative, especially with pitchers.

A player's track record in the majors is a better predictor of future success than what he does in the minors.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

A player's track record in the majors is a better predictor of future success than what he does in the minors.

Not true anymore. With steroids out of the game and teams getting smarter, almost all players who hit free agency are past their primes and beginning to decline. Aging curves are more predictive than previous success. It's why so many free agent deals are horrific these days.

Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Shields, Pablo Sandoval, Barry Zito, Jake Peavy, etc..

 

[Delpanther]

Yeah, dominating AAA and never having to be challenged or forced to adjust would've been really good for his development. Can't believe the Pirates didn't want to keep around a borderline replacement level player in favor of that.

He didn't dominate anything in the minors. He was called up too soon and wasn't very good at much of anything last year. Worst base runner I have ever seen. Terrible right fielder fundamentally, throwing to the wrong base, missing the cut off man, poor breaks on balls and on and on.

 

[Delpanther]

Not true anymore. With steroids out of the game and teams getting smarter, almost all players who hit free agency are past their primes and beginning to decline. Aging curves are more predictive than previous success. It's why so many free agent deals are horrific these days.

Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Shields, Pablo Sandoval, Barry Zito, Jake Peavy, etc..

Nonsense, pure and simple. You can't go on stats alone but major league performance is still the best predictor

 

[mvk112]

Those stats don't matter in FIP and xFIP. FIP and xFIP acknowledges that ballparks influence a ton of things that are out of the pitcher's control -- so it only cares about HR's, K's, and BB's. For xFIP, it normalizes all HR/FB rates to 10%, in acknowledgment of some ballparks stifling home runs and some ballparks inflating home runs. Hits don't matter, earned runs don't matter, ground ball rate or fly ball rate don't matter. None of it.

Jon Niese was 66th of 78 qualified SP in FIP last year. 60th of 78 in xFIP. He's 94th in FIP and 69th in xFIP (of 101) this year. He's awful.

Give me Samardzija any day of the week. No surprise he's having the success he's having while Niese is garbage.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Jon Niese was 66th of 78 qualified SP in FIP last year. 60th of 78 in xFIP. He's 94th in FIP and 69th in xFIP (of 101) this year. He's awful.

Give me Samardzija any day of the week. No surprise he's having the success he's having while Niese is garbage.

Jon Niese had a 4.41 FIP and 4.11 xFIP last year. Samardzija had a 4.23 FIP and 4.31 xFIP. I have no idea where you're drawing these conclusions from.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Nonsense, pure and simple. You can't go on stats alone but major league performance is still the best predictor

If that was true, free agent contracts wouldn't be a complete and total crapshoot when it comes to successes and failures.

Past performance matters when a guy is younger than 30. It means nothing after that point. And, with teams understanding the importance of young talent, there are very few guys who are hitting free agency before they turn 30.

 

[mvk112]

Jon Niese had a 4.41 FIP and 4.11 xFIP last year. Samardzija had a 4.23 FIP and 4.31 xFIP. I have no idea where you're drawing these conclusions from.

From watching baseball in conjunction with looking at stats. Jeff Samardzija has always been a better pitcher than Jon Niese, and it was easy to see that he'd be a better pitcher in 2016 (and beyond).

 

[Pittbaseball11]

From watching baseball in conjunction with looking at stats. Jeff Samardzija has always been a better pitcher than Jon Niese, and it was easy to see that he'd be a better pitcher in 2016 (and beyond).

Samardzija and Niese are very similar over their careers so I don't know where the "has always been" claim is coming from. Feels like that would bear itself out in their performances at some point, right?

 

[mvk112]

Or, you know, a fan who reads.

You can make every excuse you need to rationalize it to yourself, but the fact remains, this organization hasn't won anything, in large part due to the reluctance of their front office.