OT:Buccos

[Pittbaseball11]

• 
  
  So you are disputing Fangraphs, when they state that pitchers in pitcher friendly parks will have lower FIPs?
  
  This place is a carnival of stupidity.

I am saying that it's higher/lower because of the HR aspect of it, which xFIP controls for and is why I consistently have used xFIP when comparing pitchers. It doesn't penalize a guy for giving up a ton of HR in Colorado, and it doesn't reward a guy for not giving any HR up in Kansas City.

 

[mvk112]

I am saying that it's higher/lower because of the HR aspect of it, which xFIP controls for and is why I consistently have used xFIP when comparing pitchers. It doesn't penalize a guy for giving up a ton of HR in Colorado, and it doesn't reward a guy for not giving any HR up in Kansas City.

Normalizing homerun rates isn't the same as applying park factors. A guy who gives up 10 home runs at Coors Field shouldn't be equalized the same as a guy who gives up 10 home runs at Citi Field which is what xFIP does.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Normalizing homerun rates isn't the same as applying park factors. A guy who gives up 10 home runs at Coors Field shouldn't be equalized the same as a guy who gives up 10 home runs at Citi Field which is what xFIP does.

It's HR/FB% in xFIP. It's rate based, not raw numbers based.

 

[mvk112]

It's HR/FB% in xFIP. It's rate based, not raw numbers based.

Yes, it's still normalized, which isn't the same as applying a park factor. Niese gives up a bunch of HR, of course normalizing that will help him, but that doesn't mean he's going to give up less HR. And he was giving up those HR in a pitchers park.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Yes, it's still normalized, which isn't the same as applying a park factor. Niese gives up a bunch of HR, of course normalizing that will help him, but that doesn't mean he's going to give up less HR. And he was giving up those HR in a pitchers park.

Of course it's not the same as applying a park factor, because the assumption is that HR/FB% is a noisy stat and most guys will wind up around 9-10% over the course of their careers and therefore have no real control over the home runs they give up -- regardless of the ball park the home runs happen in.

Samardzija is another guy who is helped by xFIP, as he's never been below 10% at any of the ballparks he's pitched in -- and actually was better last year at US Cellular (the hitter friendliest place he's pitched) than he's been anywhere else. Again, it's just noise.

The league adjustment is going to be far more impactful on FIP- than the park factors will. Those park factors will be more or less captured within xFIP, as the park factor's goal is to put everybody on an even playing field in terms of HR parks -- which is exactly what xFIP does. At least with league adjustments you're looking at removing the pitcher spot, adding the DH spot, and therefore making K's less likely, BB's more likely, and HR's more likely (again, on a FIP-only basis).

 

[mvk112]

Calling HR rate just noise is pretty silly. But not surprising from someone who thinks the Pirates did right by themselves by going with Locke, Niese, and Nicasio in their rotation cause 'who could they get that's better'?

Other than over 85% of the SP in the league, probably half the guys they have pitching in Indy. Definitely Taillon and Glasnow.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Calling HR rate just noise is pretty silly. But not surprising from someone who thinks the Pirates did right by themselves by going with Locke, Niese, and Nicasio in their rotation cause 'who could they get that's better'?

Other than over 85% of the SP in the league, probably half the guys they have pitching in Indy. Definitely Taillon and Glasnow.

If you have proof to the contrary, feel free to provide it.

Perhaps 85% of the pitchers in the majors are better, however, I think it's more or less self-evident by this point that none of those 85% were mentioned so far in this thread.

 

[drunkinoakland]

This is great. Here, I'm being called a fan boy, and on the pay board I'm being criticized for being a negative Nancy.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

This is great. Here, I'm being called a fan boy, and on the pay board I'm being criticized for being a negative Nancy.

Took me about 3 years to go from massive Pirates hater to unrelenting apologist despite saying the exact same things.

 

[Delpanther]

I have no issues with people disagreeing. Just be intelligent about it and not a perspectiveless nimrod.

I love debate, but I'm not going to suffer fools either.

Oh, you're getting philosophical now, gotcha.

Well, 6 years in third grade served you well. Probably took all your business classes, then, too.

ok, gramps, whatever you say. How's Jamie out on the prairie?

 

[mvk112]

Jeff Locke, ladies and gents. How could they ever have found someone better?

But hey, it's only $3m down the toilet and it's easy to cut bait with him, right? That's an actual positive I've seen people post about having Jeff Locke in the rotation. Who cares if you waste almost half a season with this guy, he's easy to cut!

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Jeff Locke, ladies and gents. How could they ever have found someone better?

But hey, it's only $3m down the toilet and it's easy to cut bait with him, right? That's an actual positive I've seen people post about having Jeff Locke in the rotation. Who cares if you waste almost half a season with this guy, he's easy to cut!

How ever is a team supposed to overcome the whopping total of 10 starts he was anticipated to receive in that time?!?! The season is sunk purely because of him!

That's maybe one extra win of value! Tankers!

 

[mvk112]

How ever is a team supposed to overcome the whopping total of 10 starts he was anticipated to receive in that time?!?! The season is sunk purely because of him!

That's maybe one extra win of value! Tankers!

He's made 13 starts already, champ.

Hey, if you're happy with a guy with an ERA in the 6 range making 13 starts, more power to you. I'd prefer someone who's actually a good pitcher, but we wouldn't want a billionaire to have to spend some money, would we?

 

[Pittbaseball11]

He's made 13 starts already, champ.

Hey, if you're happy with a guy with an ERA in the 6 range making 13 starts, more power to you. I'd prefer someone who's actually a good pitcher, but we wouldn't want a billionaire to have to spend some money, would we?

I mean, somebody's net worth has 0 impact on my expectation for what they spend. I'm not a child.

You can replace any member of the rotation you want with any free agent pitcher you want (because there was only 1 spot open in the rotation this offseason), and the Pirates are still way behind the Cubs and well behind the Wild Card chase.

Signing one free agent for the rotation isn't going to compensate for Francisco Liriano going in the tank, McCutchen performing like a AAA player, and injuries to Cole and Cervelli. It's not going to save the Pirates from going with some back-end starters they can easily cut to make room for Glasnow and Taillon. Welcome to life as a small market team. Prospects get priority over everything, because they're a cheaper, higher upside play than old guys past their prime.

Play Captain Hindsight all you want, it doesn't fix or change anything.

 

[mvk112]

Small market is a self fulfilling prophesy, St. Louis isn't much bigger than Pittsburgh but they never limited themselves, they always strive for greatness and they built a great brand that they leveraged into a massive tv deal. Similar size market, but they aren't small market.

This organization has been playing the small market card for so long that people gobble it up as a fact of life. Weak minded fans that cheer for the front office and don't care about the team, as long as NH says "process" everything is fine.

Do you really believe if they brought in a legitimate SP (Zimmerman/Maeda) and brought up their talented SP in April, that they wouldn't be much closer to the Cubs, and right there in the Wild Card race? Really?

People like you deserve to watch Jeff Locke, Juan Nicasio, and Jon Niese pitch three out of every five days. If you don't expect any better, why would they care to give you better? After all, it's a "process".

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Small market is a self fulfilling prophesy, St. Louis isn't much bigger than Pittsburgh but they never limited themselves, they always strive for greatness and they built a great brand that they leveraged into a massive tv deal. Similar size market, but they aren't small market.

This organization has been playing the small market card for so long that people gobble it up as a fact of life. Weak minded fans that cheer for the front office and don't care about the team, as long as NH says "process" everything is fine.

Do you really believe if they brought in a legitimate SP (Zimmerman/Maeda) and brought up their talented SP in April, that they wouldn't be much closer to the Cubs, and right there in the Wild Card race? Really?

People like you deserve to watch Jeff Locke, Juan Nicasio, and Jon Niese pitch three out of every five days. If you don't expect any better, why would they care to give you better? After all, it's a "process".

St. Louis is not a small market. See what the Pirates' next TV deal looks like compared to theirs. It's totally apples to oranges. They have a massive following and a massive area they draw from. Look around the Pirates. Surrounded on all sides by other teams (Cleveland, Cincy, Baltimore, Washington, Philly, both NY teams), there's no vast Midwestern expanse from which to draw. It's just one little area of the map that Pittsburgh occupies, and not a particularly high population area.

Favorite Baseball Team by County:

And no, I don't think one pitcher would have made anywhere close to the difference you're assuming. Maybe a 4.0 WAR pitcher over a full season at best for Zimmerman and Maeda? Zimmermann has reached that level once in his career and Maeda is more or less on pace to hit it on the nose. Hell, even give them 5.0 or 6.0. The Pirates aren't just 4-6 wins off the pace right now for anything. Not even close. And that's with you utilizing hindsight, when I'm positive that the words "Kenta Maeda" were never uttered on Pittsburgh airwaves this offseason.

I also do not think that Glasnow is anything more than Juan Nicasio right now, as I've said, and I don't think Taillon on a pitch count facing his first live action in 2 years is a particularly appealing option.

I know people are excited about him, but that .184 BABIP is going to regress and he'll need to strike more guys out going forward. I don't know how long it'll take for him to do that.

 

[TD_istheman]

Locke lmao

 

[TD_istheman]

Mets couldn't hit little league right now, but they torched Locke, and you all are lucky , your boy saved 10 million signing that bum

 

[NTOP]

Who cares if you have to actually pay a guy what he is worth. Why is that such a bad thing? The sport is awash in cash, yes even the 'poor' Pirates who approached $250m in revenue last year (and only had a $95m payroll) and cleared well over $30m.

Jordan Zimmerman will be 32-33-34 for those last three years, let's not act like he's signed through age 41 or something.

So, the Pirates "cleared" $30 large, and you want them to spend how much more than the current payroll?? Will that increase attendance? Will ROOT give them an attaboy check???

 

[NTOP]

This is great. Here, I'm being called a fan boy, and on the pay board I'm being criticized for being a negative Nancy.

Be happy....balance is a good thing!!

 

[mvk112]

So, the Pirates "cleared" $30 large, and you want them to spend how much more than the current payroll?? Will that increase attendance? Will ROOT give them an attaboy check???

The ROOT deal is up in a couple years, a pennant winning team would fetch a lot more in the next contract than a team that continuously finishes in second (or third probably this year). It also drives up franchise value, which is much more valuable than clearing $30m per year. Billionaire sports franchise owners, Nutting most certainly included, don't need the year to year profits to sustain themselves, as long as that franchise value keeps increasing. And a franchise that increased in value from $92m in 1996 when the Nuttings bought in, to an estimated $975m this year, is testament to that.

Spend another $20m-$25m in payroll, and do it on quality, not quantity like they typically do (Niese, Locke, Nicasio, Vogelsong, etc) and you have a team that's right there with Chicago, or at least on their heels.

 

[Panther Holla]

I have got to tell you have really enjoyed reading this thread. I enjoyed the opinions of many and I am finally compelled to give my 2 cents.

First, I think it is important to realize that where the Pirates have improved the most from their 20 years of futility is in scouting and drafting better players and restocking their minor leagues with plenty of talent. Therefore, I give a lot of credit to Neal Huntingdon and the scouts. Mr. Nutting also deserves some credit for this, putting up more money for picks and also signing Kang out of Korea.

I would argue that Mr. Nutting, or Nutsack as some like to call him, including me, runs the team like any smart business owner. He is in this to make a profit, and that is his main goal. He worked really hard to get team friendly contracts with McCuthcheon and Polanco. If they continue to play well will he resign them when the time comes or let them walk like he did with the Pittsburgh Kid? He is doing enough to keep the Pirates competitive, but he is not at all concerned with winning a World Series. He will never spend to bring in real talent. So those who expect some good moves at the deadline this year will all be disappointed. What he has is a great ballpark, in a great city, surrounded by many great restaurants and bars. He also makes a ton of money off of concessions as any Pirate fan who has been to a game can attest to. He understands that all he needs to do is continue with the promotions and get fannies in the seats and he is a winner.

I surely do not condone throwing money at players like the Dodgers and Yankees do, but if you are a fan of the Pirates and baseball in general, you must realize that Nutsack essentially has you held hostage. Sure, he can provide you with a nice night at the ballpark, but he isn't going to go all out to get you a winner, all while he gets that money out of your wallet over the course of the evening to pad his bottom line.

One other little note...... What the hell is Clit Hurdle doing? How many games can he piss away letting Sean Rod bat with the game on the line? That my friends is my two cents and some of you probably think it is worth even less.

Amen. After attending 20+ games every year since 1979 and faithfully waiting and praying for Next Year to arrive, I have tempered my expectations for the Pirates. Which is to say, I have none. The team will be competitive for the foreseeable future thanks to the infrastructure put in place, sound player development and the shrewd moves by the GM. And maybe some season they will catch lightning in an overpriced stadium cup and reach the WS. But I doubt it, because that burning desire to WIN of a Steinbrenner or a Cuban is lacking in the Scion of Wheeling. You can show me all the analytical BS you want, but the Pirates won't raise their spend a notch or three to upgrade. They want to do it organically -- which is fine -- but the ultimate payoff is less probable.

So I still root for the colors and attend my share of games. But I've cut back some, and emotionally I am not invested the way I once was.

Perhaps the Nutting regime has done for the Pirates what Walt Harris and Wanny did for Pitt football. Raised the bar A LOT, but not quite enough for some of us. (Please don't start comparing win totals.) Like Pitt, the operative phrase for the Pirates is "almost there".

 

[KennyTheKangaroo]

What did the royals do that showed a burning desire to win?

 

[NTOP]

The ROOT deal is up in a couple years, a pennant winning team would fetch a lot more in the next contract than a team that continuously finishes in second (or third probably this year). It also drives up franchise value, which is much more valuable than clearing $30m per year. Billionaire sports franchise owners, Nutting most certainly included, don't need the year to year profits to sustain themselves, as long as that franchise value keeps increasing. And a franchise that increased in value from $92m in 1996 when the Nuttings bought in, to an estimated $975m this year, is testament to that.

Spend another $20m-$25m in payroll, and do it on quality, not quantity like they typically do (Niese, Locke, Nicasio, Vogelsong, etc) and you have a team that's right there with Chicago, or at least on their heels.

Winning a pennant won't make this a big TV market. ROOT might be OB by then, and the Bucs scrambling....THIS?? CW?? WQED with T.J. Lubinsky running things?? Do you think ANYONE would pay $975 million for the Bucs?? To NET $30 million??? In a small town dominated by 2 other pro teams? With a small, if wonderful, stadium?? Some things just can't be changed.
Bring up the young arms, then try the FA market. Might stir up some interest. No question that the pitching staff is bad, esp. the bullpen. I'm not sure they'd get much in return from jettisoning those 4 you mention, but might save some current payroll. They walked a fine line with injuries the last couple years, now look like a MASH unit.

 

[mvk112]

What did the royals do that showed a burning desire to win?

Dealt away top prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis, who led them to the World Series. Went all in to acquire Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist last year, and the won the World Series.

They went outside the organization to acquire high end pieces that put them over the top. They took risks doing so.

 

[QuitCallingMeWanny]

• 
  
  So you are disputing Fangraphs, when they state that pitchers in pitcher friendly parks will have lower FIPs?
  
  This place is a carnival of stupidity.

Yea and you're the ringleader...you keep getting owned and come back for more...what a yinzer

 

[mvk112]

Winning a pennant won't make this a big TV market. ROOT might be OB by then, and the Bucs scrambling....THIS?? CW?? WQED with T.J. Lubinsky running things?? Do you think ANYONE would pay $975 million for the Bucs?? To NET $30 million??? In a small town dominated by 2 other pro teams? With a small, if wonderful, stadium?? Some things just can't be changed.
Bring up the young arms, then try the FA market. Might stir up some interest. No question that the pitching staff is bad, esp. the bullpen. I'm not sure they'd get much in return from jettisoning those 4 you mention, but might save some current payroll. They walked a fine line with injuries the last couple years, now look like a MASH unit.

The Padres sold for $800M in 2012, the Pirates would get close to $1B four years later in Nutting put them up for sale.

I don't think they should jettison those four, they should've never been on the 2016 team to begin with. That's $18m for a combined 5.14 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

ROOT isn't going to be out of business anytime soon. They get great ratings for both the Pens and the Pirates, they're amongst the safest bets of any RSN in sports right now.

By the way, netting $30M (actually $35.3M estimated in 2015), puts them in the top ten in baseball. Not sure why you're saying to net $30M like its low. Most teams are lower because they actually spend money accordingly.

 

[mvk112]

Yea and you're the ringleader...you keep getting owned and come back for more...what a yinzer

I bet you enjoyed Jeff Locke last night.

 

[QuitCallingMeWanny]

I bet you enjoyed Jeff Locke last night.

No I didn't but I am also smart enough to know the real issues of this team and it isnt because Samardzia, Zimmerman, or the newest sensation Kenta Maeda isn't in this rotation

 

[mvk112]

No I didn't but I am also smart enough to know the real issues of this team and it isnt because Samardzia, Zimmerman, or the newest sensation Kenta Maeda isn't in this rotation

Yeah the issue is that locke, Niese, and Nicasio are in the rotation instead. And that is on NH.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Dealt away top prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis, who led them to the World Series. Went all in to acquire Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist last year, and the won the World Series.

They went outside the organization to acquire high end pieces that put them over the top. They took risks doing so.

You mean Wade Davis the failed 5th starter? The guy who was traded as a starting pitcher but got bumped to the bullpen because he failed miserably in his anticipated role as a piece of the rotation? We're going to use THAT much revisionist history here? And James Shields did nothing (given that the standard is RINGZZZZZZ).

Zobrist and Cueto? Yawn. Cueto was garbage down the stretch, to say nothing of the fact that one player has a relatively inconsequential impact over a 2-month period -- let alone the outcome of playoffs.

Hot streaks, cold streaks, injury, overuse/fatigue -- significantly more important than any one player.

 

[mvk112]

You're right, why even try to acquire good layers, just keep tossing Licke, Nicasio, and Niese out there.

Don't try to get good players, they don't matter.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

You're right, why even try to acquire good layers, just keep tossing Licke, Nicasio, and Niese out there.

Don't try to get good players, they don't matter.

When have I ever said don't get good players? I said don't get old players, but I'm all for doing whatever it takes to make sure you can add good players -- it's why I'm fine with having Locke et al in the rotation so that I can easily add Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham and whoever else whenever they're ready.

Get old players when you're at the end of your window and are going to tank soon anyway. Don't get old players when your window is still open. That's the quickest way to make sure your window closes.

Let's not forget, free agency is -- by definition -- not "paying a guy what he's worth". It's really a perfect example of the winner's curse.

 

[KennyTheKangaroo]

When the royals let zobrist walk, did they show a burning desire to win?

When the royals let Cueto walk, did they show a burning desire to win?

 

[Pittbaseball11]

When the royals let zobrist walk, did they show a burning desire to win?

When the royals let Cueto walk, did they show a burning desire to win?

Okay yeah but in the previous offseason they signed Kendrys Morales a year after he hit 218/274/338 and they signed Alex Rios a year after he hit 280/311/398. They also paid Jeremy Guthrie $9MM to be worse than Jeff Locke all year. That's not dumpster diving, that's spending money and trying because you actually care.

Revisionist history and playing the results is just fantastic.

 

[mvk112]

When the royals let zobrist walk, did they show a burning desire to win?

When the royals let Cueto walk, did they show a burning desire to win?

They're paying the price for letting them walk now, aren't they?

 

[mvk112]

Okay yeah but in the previous offseason they signed Kendrys Morales a year after he hit 218/274/338 and they signed Alex Rios a year after he hit 280/311/398. They also paid Jeremy Guthrie $9MM to be worse than Jeff Locke all year. That's not dumpster diving, that's spending money and trying because you actually care.

Revisionist history and playing the results is just fantastic.

Playing the results, LOL. Good one, Neal. It's all about the process, who cares about the results.

I'm sure you wouldn't trade the past three years of the Pirates for the last three years of the Royals. And that would be the height of stupidity.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

They're paying the price for letting them walk now, aren't they?

Not really. Alex Gordon hurt, Mike Moustakas hurt, Kendrys Morales back in the tank, the whole rotation has taken a step back (probably because guys like Gordon and Moustakas are hurt).

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Playing the results, LOL. Good one, Neal. It's all about the process, who cares about the results.

I'm sure you wouldn't trade the past three years of the Pirates for the last three years of the Royals. And that would be the height of stupidity.

I'm just saying that the Pirates get crushed for making those same types of moves, when the Royals do the same thing in terms of picking up guys off the scrap heap and gambling that they'll get hot for a year.

If the Pirates going out and signing Kang or signing Jaso or trading for (and extending) Cervelli instead of signing Martin, or signing Francisco Liriano, etc are signs of them being cheap, dumpster diving swindlers who just keep getting lucky then what does that make the Royals?

 

[Panther Holla]

What did the royals do that showed a burning desire to win?

Didn't the Royals roll the dice and bring in Cueto and Zobrist? I'm talking more about an organizational state of mind than a specific example. Bob Nutting is largely quiet about winning championships. If he mentions the subject at all -- and I don't have the transcripts -- it's a comment of the "Of course we want to win, but..." variety. Which is different than when George used to proclaim that the Yankees were about winning championships because that is what Yankee fans expect and deserve.

It's a perception. And there are no analytics to refute it.