OT:Buccos

[Pittbaseball11]

LOL people are unnecessarily killing Niese, Locke, and Nicasio.

Niese - 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.7 HR/9, 5.20 FIP
Locke - 5.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9, 5.25 FIP
Nicasio - 5.34 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9, 4.40 FIP

Yeah, unnecessarily killing them.

All praise to NH for putting together this championship caliber rotation!

God you're dense.

Yeah, this year they're down (besides Nicasio, really -- and Niese's xFIP is fine). Historically, their numbers are in line with any of the other 4th/5th starters who were available, some of whom are working out, some of whom are not, and some of whom have already washed out. Pretty much exactly what you'd expect from a group of similarly productive players heading into a season. Some are good and play above their historical norms, some suck and play below their historical norms, some see their careers fall off a cliff and wind up toiling around in the minors for the rest of their career. Rinse, repeat. Welcome to the perils of a single-season sample size in a sport that's heavily littered with luck and randomness. You use the best available information you have during the offseason, and you cross your fingers that you were lucky enough to pick the players who perform well.

We've seen, repeatedly, that there is no predicting which free agent contracts will be good and which will be bad. It's all a crapshoot (although, betting against a pitching contract being good is typically going to be a winning bet). So, to act like they settled for guys who were clearly worse than everybody else -- when in many cases their track records said quite the opposite -- is just playing the results and using hindsight to suit your narrative.

 

[Pittguy1980]

God you're dense.

Yeah, this year they're down (besides Nicasio, really -- and Niese's xFIP is fine). Historically, their numbers are in line with any of the other 4th/5th starters who were available, some of whom are working out, some of whom are not, and some of whom have already washed out. Pretty much exactly what you'd expect from a group of similar free agents. Some are good, some suck, some see their careers fall off a cliff. Rinse, repeat. Welcome to the perils of a single-season sample size in a sport that's heavily littered with luck and randomness.

We've seen, repeatedly, that there is no predicting which free agent contracts will be good and which will be bad. It's all a crapshoot. So, to act like they settled for guys who were clearly worse than everybody else -- when in many cases their track records said quite the opposite -- is just playing the results and using hindsight to suit your narrative.

The crazy thing to me is that people wanted to throw tons of money at mike leake, who in his career has basically been a righty niese.

 

[mvk112]

Who should they have signed?

Kenta Maeda or John Lackey or JA Happ.

Trade for someone not named Jon Niese. Use your high end SP prospects.

Push the payroll to an acceptable level and sign Jordan Zimmerman.

Do you really think there was nothing that could be done other than throwing three scrubs out there?

They could've traded Walker for a low salary RP instead of Niese, used the cash from Niese/Nicasio/Vogelsong ($16m) towards Zimmerman, kept Locke as the #5 for a few weeks till Glasnow was ready to come up, and you have a rotation of Cole-Zimmerman-Liriano-Taillon-Glasnow for about $6m more, plus a decent middle reliever in return for Walker.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

The crazy thing to me is that people wanted to throw tons of money at mike leake, who in his career has basically been a righty niese.

Bingo. Both low-upside back end starters.

Happ and Locke are eerily similar in their career ERA/FIP/xFIP lines, although Happ is older and has a longer track record of mediocrity.

In baseball, ultimately, process matters more than results. You shouldn't be applauded for doing something dumb or rash because it happens to work out in your favor -- you simply got lucky, and luck isn't sustainable or repeatable (in the sense that you have any control over when and how it will repeat).

 

[mvk112]

God you're dense.

Yeah, this year they're down (besides Nicasio, really -- and Niese's xFIP is fine). Historically, their numbers are in line with any of the other 4th/5th starters who were available, some of whom are working out, some of whom are not, and some of whom have already washed out. Pretty much exactly what you'd expect from a group of similarly productive players heading into a season. Some are good and play above their historical norms, some suck and play below their historical norms, some see their careers fall off a cliff and wind up toiling around in the minors for the rest of their career. Rinse, repeat. Welcome to the perils of a single-season sample size in a sport that's heavily littered with luck and randomness. You use the best available information you have during the offseason, and you cross your fingers that you were lucky enough to pick the players who perform well.

We've seen, repeatedly, that there is no predicting which free agent contracts will be good and which will be bad. It's all a crapshoot (although, betting against a pitching contract being good is typically going to be a winning bet). So, to act like they settled for guys who were clearly worse than everybody else -- when in many cases their track records said quite the opposite -- is just playing the results and using hindsight to suit your narrative.

No they're not, Niese and Locke have been bottom of the barrel SP in just about every metric for the past couple years. They might be decent #5's on second level clubs, but you have to do a lot better than that if you expect to contend. Nicasio is a reliever, it should come as no shock that he isn't very good as a starter.

These are three of the worst SP in the league, but I'm dense and NH is a genius. What a group of sports fans there are here.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Kenta Maeda or John Lackey or JA Happ.

Trade for someone not named Jon Niese. Use your high end SP prospects.

Push the payroll to an acceptable level and sign Jordan Zimmerman.

Do you really think there was nothing that could be done other than throwing three scrubs out there?

They could've traded Walker for a low salary RP instead of Niese, used the cash from Niese/Nicasio/Vogelsong ($16m) towards Zimmerman, kept Locke as the #5 for a few weeks till Glasnow was ready to come up, and you have a rotation of Cole-Zimmerman-Liriano-Taillon-Glasnow for about $6m more, plus a decent middle reliever in return for Walker.

That seems all neat and tidy until you take into account Zimmermann's making $24MM/$25MM/$25MM over his last 3 years and has a pretty strict no-trade clause, including a full no-trade clause over his first 3 years, which is the only time he'll actually have tradeable value.

The other 3 guys are, again, just playing the results. Nobody was mentioning them before, aside from Happ who is pitching well below last year's performance, and now everybody is using hindsight and saying "well obviously you should've gotten them".

 

[Pittbaseball11]

No they're not, Niese and Locke have been bottom of the barrel SP in just about every metric for the past couple years. They might be decent #5's on second level clubs, but you have to do a lot better than that if you expect to contend. Nicasio is a reliever, it should come as no shock that he isn't very good as a starter.

These are three of the worst SP in the league, but I'm dense and NH is a genius. What a group of sports fans there are here.

Again, Niese has a career line of 3.95/3.93/3.77 for ERA/FIP/xFIP. He had a 3.40/3.67/3.63 line just 2 years ago. Compare that with Mike Leake's career ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Compare it with Samardzija, while you're at it.

You can do the same for Jeff Locke's ERA/FIP/xFIP numbers over his career compared to JA Happ.

Again, nobody is calling them good. I haven't seen a single person say that they AREN'T back-end starter types. This is you being super paranoid again. People are just calling them indistinguishable from the alternatives this offseason.

 

[mvk112]

Who cares if you have to actually pay a guy what he is worth. Why is that such a bad thing? The sport is awash in cash, yes even the 'poor' Pirates who approached $250m in revenue last year (and only had a $95m payroll) and cleared well over $30m.

Jordan Zimmerman will be 32-33-34 for those last three years, let's not act like he's signed through age 41 or something.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Who cares if you have to actually pay a guy what he is worth. Why is that such a bad thing? The sport is awash in cash, yes even the 'poor' Pirates who approached $250m in revenue last year (and only had a $95m payroll) and cleared well over $30m.

Jordan Zimmerman will be 32-33-34 for those last three years, let's not act like he's signed through age 41 or something.

Because I have a crap ton of pitching prospects in the high-minors, so I would rather spend money on something I know I'm going to need long-term rather than spend money just for the hell of it to make a paranoid, uninformed fanbase happy because they misinterpret it as trying.

 

[mvk112]

Again, Niese has a career line of 3.95/3.93/3.77 for ERA/FIP/xFIP. He had a 3.40/3.67/3.63 line just 2 years ago. Compare that with Mike Leake's career ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Compare it with Samardzija, while you're at it.

You can do the same for Jeff Locke's ERA/FIP/xFIP numbers over his career compared to JA Happ.

Again, nobody is calling them good. I haven't seen a single person say that they AREN'T back-end starter types. This is you being super paranoid again. People are just calling them indistinguishable from the alternatives this offseason.

Niese was trending down really hard last year, everyone in baseball saw that. The Mets removed him from their rotation. If you think what Jon Niese did 4 years ago is relevant to what he is today, then you're sorely mistaken.

Teams with championship aspirations shouldn't go out looking for 5th starters, they should be looking to upgrade the top of the rotation and slide guys down to the 5th spot.

 

[mvk112]

Because I have a crap ton of pitching prospects in the high-minors, so I would rather spend money on something I know I'm going to need long-term rather than spend money just for the hell of it to make a paranoid, uninformed fanbase happy because they misinterpret it as trying.

Great, sign a legit SP, then use your high end SP from the minors instead of collecting a bunch of crap and holding the prospects back while they "check off" boxes until mid June or later.

Signing a legitimate SP would not block any prospects. If they had Zimmerman and called up Taillon and Glasnow, they wouldn't be a dozen games back of the Cubs right now.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Niese was trending down really hard last year, everyone in baseball saw that. The Mets removed him from their rotation. If you think what Jon Niese did 4 years ago is relevant to what he is today, then you're sorely mistaken.

Teams with championship aspirations shouldn't go out looking for 5th starters, they should be looking to upgrade the top of the rotation and slide guys down to the 5th spot.

Why is what he did 2 years ago not relevant? That's the slash line I cited in my post. Samardzija trended down in a big way last year, why aren't you killing him for it? Seems to be a bit illogical and inconsistent.

Jon Niese last year: 4.13/4.41/4.11

Jeff Samardzija last year: 4.96/4.23/4.31

But yes, Samardzija would have been a smart signing while it was plainly obvious that Niese was done. That's a totally sound, logical argument.

And I agree, they shouldn't have gone out looking for back-end starters, so I'm glad they didn't sign any of the free agents mentioned in this thread. Finally, we are on the same page.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Great, sign a legit SP, then use your high end SP from the minors instead of collecting a bunch of crap and holding the prospects back while they "check off" boxes until mid June or later.

Why would I do that? If my prospects work out it gives me even more money available in the future to sign somebody to plug a hole that I actually have. Tying up payroll before it's necessary is just silly.

 

[Pittguy1980]

Kenta Maeda or John Lackey or JA Happ.

Trade for someone not named Jon Niese. Use your high end SP prospects.

Push the payroll to an acceptable level and sign Jordan Zimmerman.

Do you really think there was nothing that could be done other than throwing three scrubs out there?

They could've traded Walker for a low salary RP instead of Niese, used the cash from Niese/Nicasio/Vogelsong ($16m) towards Zimmerman, kept Locke as the #5 for a few weeks till Glasnow was ready to come up, and you have a rotation of Cole-Zimmerman-Liriano-Taillon-Glasnow for about $6m more, plus a decent middle reliever in return for Walker.

So you wanted to give a 100 million dollar contract to Zimmerman, who really is a career number 3 starter? Nevermind you'd have to pay him into his mid 30's which often spells trouble.

Happ, no. Lackey is old but at least would have only been a 2 year deal. Manda, maybe they bid on him? I don't know?

Funny though you say trade for someone, then you assume taillon and Glasnow in your rotation after you advocate trading them.

I can't stop laughing at the Jordan Zimmerman comment. Lol.

 

[Pittguy1980]

MVk, what were your thoughts on the liriano and volquez signings, and the trades for happ and Burnett when they happened.

 

[mvk112]

You keep calling people paranoid, either you don't know what it means or you're trying to make some nonsensical point.

Expecting an organization to try to win a championship isn't being paranoid. Defending a GM for every decision he makes, on the other hand, is. Why are you so paranoid that they take a chance on a top level talent that could very well put them over the top? Because they might have to spend some money that they are taking in left and right through a subsidized stadium, a huge subsidy from MLB (revenue sharing), their share of a huge tv deal, and their dividends from the highly successful MLBAM?

 

[mvk112]

So you wanted to give a 100 million dollar contract to Zimmerman, who really is a career number 3 starter? Nevermind you'd have to pay him into his mid 30's which often spells trouble.

Happ, no. Lackey is old but at least would have only been a 2 year deal. Manda, maybe they bid on him? I don't know?

Funny though you say trade for someone, then you assume taillon and Glasnow in your rotation after you advocate trading them.

I can't stop laughing at the Jordan Zimmerman comment. Lol.

When did I ever say to trade Taillon or Glasnow?

Zimmerman has a career ERA+ of 118 and WHIP of 1.16, that is a very clear #2 SP. And yes, I would most certainly pay him that cash through his age 34 season.

 

[Pittguy1980]

You keep calling people paranoid, either you don't know what it means or you're trying to make some nonsensical point.

Expecting an organization to try to win a championship isn't being paranoid. Defending a GM for every decision he makes, on the other hand, is. Why are you so paranoid that they take a chance on a top level talent that could very well put them over the top? Because they might have to spend some money that they are taking in left and right through a subsidized stadium, a huge subsidy from MLB (revenue sharing), their share of a huge tv deal, and their dividends from the highly successful MLBAM?

They won the second most games in baseball last year. What were they trying to do, lose???

 

[Pittbaseball11]

You keep calling people paranoid, either you don't know what it means or you're trying to make some nonsensical point.

Expecting an organization to try to win a championship isn't being paranoid. Defending a GM for every decision he makes, on the other hand, is. Why are you so paranoid that they take a chance on a top level talent that could very well put them over the top? Because they might have to spend some money that they are taking in left and right through a subsidized stadium, a huge subsidy from MLB (revenue sharing), their share of a huge tv deal, and their dividends from the highly successful MLBAM?

Believing that every single move is purely financially motivated is absolutely paranoid.

What good reason was there to choose Samardzija or Leake over Niese? It wasn't performance last year, they were all bad. It wasn't performance 2 years ago, Niese was very good that year. It wasn't career track record, Niese is right on par with both of them there. Knowing what was known during the offseason, what was the reason?

What reason was there to choose Happ over Locke? You said yourself, signing 5th starters is dumb, you should be looking to replace them. So, it would make sense to replace a guy with no set contract in place rather than a guy making $12MM a year for 3 years, right?

Why are you so insistent on the Pirates needing to operate like the Brewers and Reds and Twins if they're serious about winning? There is literally no data or history available that supports your position that spending for the sake of spending when you aren't in a posis a good way to add wins or accumulate championships. Not in the post-steroid era.

 

[Pittguy1980]

When did I ever say to trade Taillon or Glasnow?

Zimmerman has a career ERA+ of 118 and WHIP of 1.16, that is a very clear #2 SP. And yes, I would most certainly pay him that cash through his age 34 season.

Trade for someone not named Jon Niese. Use your high end SP prospects.

Whoops!!!

 

[mvk112]

MVk, what were your thoughts on the liriano and volquez signings, and the trades for happ and Burnett when they happened.

I really liked the Liriano signing, the Burnett trade, and was neither here nor there on Volquez. Didn't care for the Happ trade.

I like guys who have natural talent, Liriano and Burnett certainly fit that bill, and Volquez was a guy who could bring heat and induce ground balls. All of those guys were a bit wild, which I don't think is a death knell.

Guys like Locke and Niese are a dime a dozen talents that throw it up there at 89/90 mph and generally get rocked. Those aren't guys who you need in rotation if you're looking to win a championship.

 

[Pittguy1980]

I really liked the Liriano signing, the Burnett trade, and was neither here nor there on Volquez. Didn't care for the Happ trade.

I like guys who have natural talent, Liriano and Burnett certainly fit that bill, and Volquez was a guy who could bring heat and induce ground balls. All of those guys were a bit wild, which I don't think is a death knell.

Guys like Locke and Niese are a dime a dozen talents that throw it up there at 89/90 mph and generally get rocked. Those aren't guys who you need in rotation if you're looking to win a championship.

I won't argue with you about wanting upgrades over those guys. I just don't agree with how you want to acquire those guys.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Guys like Locke and Niese are a dime a dozen talents that throw it up there at 89/90 mph and generally get rocked. Those aren't guys who you need in rotation if you're looking to win a championship.

The Royals, Mets, Cubs, and Blue Jays had Chris Young, Bartolo Colon, Dan Haren, and R.A. Dickey in their rotations last year. They are all right handed soft tossers. If Jon Niese is the Pirates' 5 starter as a lefthanded soft tosser, which was the plan, that's a fine rotation.

 

[mvk112]

Believing that every single move is purely financially motivated is absolutely paranoid.

What good reason was there to choose Samardzija or Leake over Niese? It wasn't performance last year, they were all bad. It wasn't performance 2 years ago, Niese was very good that year. It wasn't career track record, Niese is right on par with both of them there. Knowing what was known during the offseason, what was the reason?

What reason was there to choose Happ over Locke? You said yourself, signing 5th starters is dumb, you should be looking to replace them. So, it would make sense to replace a guy with no set contract in place rather than a guy making $12MM a year for 3 years, right?

Why are you so insistent on the Pirates needing to operate like the Brewers and Reds and Twins if they're serious about winning? There is literally no data or history available that supports your position that spending for the sake of spending when you aren't in a posis a good way to add wins or accumulate championships. Not in the post-steroid era.

Who is saying spend for the sake of spending? Spend on talent, like Zimmerman or Maeda, not on crap like Niese, Vogelsong, Nicasio, and Locke.

Throwing almost $20m at those four is spending for the sake of spending.

Jeff Samardzija is better in all respects than Jon Niese, both career numbers and scouting reports. It should come as a surprise to nobody that he is better this year. He's always been better and always will be.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Who is saying spend for the sake of spending? Spend on talent, like Zimmerman or Maeda, not on crap like Niese, Vogelsong, Nicasio, and Locke.

Throwing almost $20m at those for is spending for the sake of spending.

Jeff Samardzija is better in all respects than Jon Niese, both career numbers and scouting reports. It should come as a surprise to nobody that he is better this year. He's always been better and always will be.

Never heard of "there's no such thing as a bad one year deal"? I'm pretty sure I've said that my tolerance for spending big on one player is completely different when you're talking about a 1-year deal compared to a 5+ year deal.

You can pull a Delpanther and repeat over and over again that Samardzija is better than Niese, always has been, and always will be, but their track records and results do not back that claim up in the slightest.

 

[mvk112]

The Royals, Mets, Cubs, and Blue Jays had Chris Young, Bartolo Colon, Dan Haren, and R.A. Dickey in their rotations last year. They are all right handed soft tossers. If Jon Niese is the Pirates' 5 starter as a lefthanded soft tosser, which was the plan, that's a fine rotation.

That's great, but Niese is the Pirates #3 SP, not #5. At least that was the plan on the genius GM.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

That's great, but Niese is the Pirates #3 SP, not #5. At least that was the plan on the genius GM.

Mmhmm. Yeah. This was definitely the rotation they planned on taking into the postseason with them. The rotation that had them ~7 games above .500 when Taillon was set to arrive and bump everybody down a spot.

 

[mvk112]

Never heard of "there's no such thing as a bad one year deal"? I'm pretty sure I've said that my tolerance for spending big on one player is completely different when you're talking about a 1-year deal compared to a 5+ year deal.

You can pull a Delpanther and repeat over and over again that Samardzija is better than Niese, always has been, and always will be, but their track records and results do not back that claim up in the slightest.

Except when the philosophy is to sign bad pitchers to 1 year deals every year.

Samardzija's career numbers are better than Niese's across the board, and he spent just about his entire career in hitter parks like Wrigley and US Cellular while Niese was in pitcher friendly Citi Field.

You are probably the only one surprised Samardzija is a thousand times better than Niese this year.

 

[mvk112]

Mmhmm. Yeah. This was definitely the rotation they planned on taking into the postseason with them. The rotation that had them ~7 games above .500 when Taillon was set to arrive and bump everybody down a spot.

Great, waste two months of the season and you still have Niese in the #4 spot.

Here's a novel approach, use the best players you have all season long and you might not continuously come up short.

 

[NTOP]

Check out my initial post in this thread, moron, and it explains your and the chemist's participation in this thread. My vocabulary was broader than yours is now when I was in third grade. It explains a lot when an idiot grasps upon a typo in a post as the basis for a reply.

Well, 6 years in third grade served you well. Probably took all your business classes, then, too.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Except when the philosophy is to sign bad pitchers to 1 year deals every year.

Samardzija's career numbers are better than Niese's across the board, and he spent just about his entire career in hitter parks like Wrigley and US Cellular while Niese was in pitcher friendly Citi Field.

You are probably the only one surprised Samardzija is a thousand times better than Niese this year.

Oh man, back to blaming ballparks when FIP and xFIP are completely and totally unaffected by ballparks. Super constructive, as always.

 

[Pittguy1980]

Great, waste two months of the season and you still have Niese in the #4 spot.

Here's a novel approach, use the best players you have all season long and you might not continuously come up short.

98 wins last year. What more should they have done?

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Great, waste two months of the season and you still have Niese in the #4 spot.

Here's a novel approach, use the best players you have all season long and you might not continuously come up short.

Isn't the accusation that they come up short because they don't win Championships? Wouldn't it make sense to go into the playoffs with the best roster possible, rather than block prospects with mediocre free agents solely for the sake of a couple more April wins? Or to avoid getting into a Strasburg situation when you can't use a starter or two because they've already reached their workload limit?

I mean, you seem to be in the "only Championships matter because there's no luck involved at all in winning them" camp, so I would have thought leaving a clear path to the majors for your highest impact talent was the preferable approach to team building.

 

[KennyTheKangaroo]

mvk when the pirates needed to shore up their rotation last year at the dealine, and the answer was "JA Happ" what was your response?

 

[mvk112]

Oh man, back to blaming ballparks when FIP and xFIP are completely and totally unaffected by ballparks. Super constructive, as always.

It normalizes HR rates, it doesn't do anything else. That's not park adjusted. Maybe you should actually try to learn something before trying to talk definitively on something.

● FIP is not league or park adjusted meaning that pitchers in good pitcher’s parks will have consistently lower FIPs and pitchers who pitch during eras of lower run scoring will have consistently lower FIPs. To control for both of those factors, FanGraphs offers FIP-, which is a park and league adjusted version of the statistic.

 

[Pittbaseball11]

It normalizes HR rates, it doesn't do anything else. That's not park adjusted. Maybe you should actually try to learn something before trying to talk definitively on something.

● FIP is not league or park adjusted meaning that pitchers in good pitcher’s parks will have consistently lower FIPs and pitchers who pitch during eras of lower run scoring will have consistently lower FIPs. To control for both of those factors, FanGraphs offers FIP-, which is a park and league adjusted version of the statistic.

FIP is literally just K's, BB's, and HR's. The things a pitcher can control (and the xFIP controls for HR's if you believe a pitcher can't control those things). Ballparks have nothing to do with those things, aside from HR's (which, again, is why I throw in xFIP).

 

[mvk112]

mvk when the pirates needed to shore up their rotation last year at the dealine, and the answer was "JA Happ" what was your response?

Skeptical. He did fine. He did not put them over the top though, still didn't catch the Cards. Are you comparing him to how Niese/Locke/Nicasio are doing? How's that working out?

 

[Pittguy1980]

Skeptical. He did fine. He did not put them over the top though, still didn't catch the Cards. Are you comparing him to how Niese/Locke/Nicasio are doing? How's that working out?

What the hell would have put them over the top then? There is literally nothing better the Pirates could have done to try and win the division.

 

[mvk112]

• FIP is literally just K's, BB's, and HR's. The things a pitcher can control (and the xFIP controls for HR's if you believe a pitcher can't control those things). Ballparks have nothing to do with those things.

  
  So you are disputing Fangraphs, when they state that pitchers in pitcher friendly parks will have lower FIPs?
  
  This place is a carnival of stupidity.
  

 

[mvk112]

What the hell would have put them over the top then? There is literally nothing better the Pirates could have done to try and win the division.

Really? They finished two games back.